Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
If you don't agree with me then fine but don't bring up COVID as a comparison. You cannot compare changing demographics to a once in a century global pandemic. That is a false analogy and you know it.
Ottawa is not going to ride in and bail Translink out as that would automatically mean every other system would have to get bailed out as well and with the economic head wins we are facing, an already sky high deficit, and massive rearmament bills, Ottawa won't have the money. Actually my bigger concern is over the medium to long-term as such shortfalls will result, as Translink has said, in lower service and higher fares which results in even lower ridership and revenues and hence even worse service/higher fares in the years to come.........the dreaded transit death spiral.
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Nobody - except maybe you - expects Ottawa to support the operating costs for TransLink. That's the Province's job, and the Mayor's Council have been on the ball in requesting a report on the consequences of not having a clearer medium term funding source to ensure future levels of service are as good, or better, than what we have today.
COVID has relevance because the disruption it caused to travel patterns are still affecting ridership, and revenue. TransLink saw about 10% fewer boardings in 2024 than in 2019, so it still hasn't recovered to the level of activity before the pandemic. That's not a uniquely Vancouver problem, most of Canada's larger transit systems have seen similar, or greater reductions. The TransLink ridership numbers have steadily gone up since the 2020 low point, and assuming you're wrong about a collapse because many riders are overseas students who won't be here any more, it's likely that Translink's ridership will be close to 2018 and 2019 next year.
COVID also had an impact because fares were frozen (and the province made up the shortfall), so they haven't risen with inflation since 2019. And driving has decreased, so gas purchases have gone down, so the gas tax to Translink is less. Add in the increased adoption of EVs, and obviously a funding solution has to be found that acknowledges those changes.
TransLink had a budget surplus of $50.5 million in 2024. Currently they think there could be a $72 million operating budget deficit this year. On a total operating budget of $2.5bn, that's not a 'sky is falling' number. If the provincial government was conservative, that might cause problems. It seems more likely that the existing provincial government will step up, if necessary, to maintain current service levels.
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