The US Census Bureau thread

[ChiSoxRox]

County estimates drop on March 13.

Usual grain of salt, but the positive statewide numbers for the likes of California and New York make me optimistic that we'll see growth for Bay Area and NYC counties. In turn, that hopefully means an end to the "NYC/SF is dying!!1!" clickbait articles.

[JoninATX]

The 2024 population estimates are out. Here are the top 10 growth contenders among US metros, July 1, 2023-July 1, 2024

1. New York City: up 213,403 to 19,940,274 (1.1% YoY increase)
2. Houston: up 198,171 to 7,796,182 (2.5%)
3. Dallas-Fort Worth: up 177,922 to 8,344,032 (2.1%)
4. Miami: up 123,471 to 6,457,988 (1.9%)
5. Washington, D.C.: up 90,608 to 6,436,489 (1.4%)
6. Phoenix: up 84,938 to 5,186,958 (1.6%)
7. Orlando: up 75,969 to 2,940,513 (2.6%)
8. Atlanta: up 75,134 to 6,411,149 (1.7%)
9. Chicago: up 70,762 to 9,408,576 (0.8%)
10. Seattle: up 66,666 to 4,145,494 (1.6%)

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-re...metro-micro.html#counties-numeric-growth

[Innsertnamehere]

NYC passing 20 million will be a big step - and it could happen this year by the looks of it.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

The 2024 population estimates are out. Here are the top 10 growth contenders among US metros, July 1, 2023-July 1, 2024

1. New York City: up 213,403 to 19,940,274 (1.1% YoY increase)
2. Houston: up 198,171 to 7,796,182 (2.5%)
3. Dallas-Fort Worth: up 177,922 to 8,344,032 (2.1%)
4. Miami: up 123,471 to 6,457,988 (1.9%)
5. Washington, D.C.: up 90,608 to 6,436,489 (1.4%)
6. Phoenix: up 84,938 to 5,186,958 (1.6%)
7. Orlano, Florida: up 75,969 to 2,940,513 (2.6%)
8. Atlanta: up 75,134 to 6,411,149 (1.7%)
9. Chicago: up 70,762 to 9,408,576 (0.8%)
10. Seattle: up 66,666 to 4,145,494 (1.6%)

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-re...metro-micro.html#counties-numeric-growth

Nearly all of the largest numerical declines by county were in Sun Belt states (St. Louis the exception). When is the last time that happened?

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

NYC passing 20 million will be a big step - and it could happen this year by the looks of it.

NY metro officially passed 20 million in the 2020 census. The post pandemic annual estimates put NYM back under 20 million.

[mhays]

King County, WA, home of Seattle, grew the sixth most in the last year. But also they revised the previous year up by 19,500. It's quite a leap.

PS, it's most accurate to look at these numbers as historical, in past tense...the end point was 9.5 months ago.

The Seattle Times is one of the better papers about this stuff. The have a reporter who actually gets demographics. The article is mostly about our area: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-new...ack-posts-big-population-growth-in-2024/

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Nearly all of the largest numerical declines by county were in Sun Belt states (St. Louis the exception). When is the last time that happened?

The only decline I could think of would of been during the 2008 recession.

[bilbao58]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Nearly all of the largest numerical declines by county were in Sun Belt states (St. Louis the exception). When is the last time that happened?

At the same time, 7 of the top 10 counties for numeric growth were also in Sun Belt states. And the growth county numbers are all in the tens of thousands (except Harris which is 100K) while the top numeric decline is less than 3.5K.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

At the same time, 7 of the top 10 counties for numeric growth were also in Sun Belt states. And the growth county numbers are all in the tens of thousands (except Harris which is 100K) while the top numeric decline is less than 3.5K.

That's probably also a below average performance for Sun Belt counties compared to recent decades.

ETA: Adding some context and data here. Between 2010 and 2020 only 2 non-Sun Belt counties registered in the top 20 by numerical growth: King County, WA (home to Seattle) and Kings County, NY (aka Brooklyn).

1. Harris County, Texas: +638,686
2. Maricopa County, Arizona: +603,451
3. King County, Washington: +338,426
4. Clark County, Nevada: +314,192
5. Tarrant County, Texas: +301,606
6. Orange County, Florida: +283,952
7. Collin County, Texas: +282,124
8. Travis County, Texas: +265,922
9. Dallas County, Texas: +245,400
10. Denton County, Texas: +243,808
11. Fort Bend County, Texas: +237,404
12. Kings County, New York: +231,374
13. Hillsborough County, Florida: +230,536
14. Riverside County, California: +228,544
15. Wake County, North Carolina: +228,417
16. Miami-Dade County, Florida: +205,332
17. San Diego County, California: +203,321
18. Broward County, Florida: +196,309
19. Mecklenburg County, North Carolina: +195,854

[IcedCowboyCoffee]

Here's a look at the migration patterns from this data. The large MSAs are still losing residents through domestic out-migration but it is being offset by high international migration.

The highest international migration:
.New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area 287,993
.Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area 213,227
.Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area 130,009
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area 128,135
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area 102,702
.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area 96,448
.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area 83,844
.Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area 70,731
.San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area 67,708
.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area 66,800
.Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area 63,849
.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area 52,618
.Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area 49,691
.Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area 48,833
.San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area 44,829
.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area 43,292
.Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area 40,347
.Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area 27,946
.Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV Metro Area 27,701
.Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area 27,162


The lowest net domestic migration:
.New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area -146,888
.Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area -122,349
.Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area -101,303
.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area -45,217
.San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area -39,938
.San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area -23,934
.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area -22,784
.Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area -22,736
.San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area -21,745
.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area -12,769
.Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area -11,626
.Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area -11,483
.New Orleans-Metairie, LA Metro Area -10,668
.Memphis, TN-MS-AR Metro Area -9,674
.Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metro Area -8,427
.Salt Lake City-Murray, UT Metro Area -8,377
.El Paso, TX Metro Area -7,355
.Urban Honolulu, HI Metro Area -6,890
.Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT Metro Area -5,994
.Fresno, CA Metro Area -5,725


The highest net domestic migration:
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area 24,550
.Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area 24,377
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area 21,408
.Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area 21,364
.Jacksonville, FL Metro Area 19,954
.Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL Metro Area 19,745
.San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area 18,981
.Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area 17,505
.Ocala, FL Metro Area 16,105
.North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL Metro Area 15,049
.Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Metro Area 14,801
.Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN Metro Area 14,754
.Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC Metro Area 14,565
.Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area 13,980
.Port St. Lucie, FL Metro Area 12,859
.Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV Metro Area 12,225
.Wilmington, NC Metro Area 12,048
.Greenville-Anderson-Greer, SC Metro Area 11,438
.Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL Metro Area 11,084
.Charleston-North Charleston, SC Metro Area 10,954

[Steely Dan]

So now the CB "estimates" Chicagoland gained population?

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by IcedCowboyCoffee

Here's a look at the migration patterns from this data. The large MSAs are still losing residents through domestic out-migration but it is being offset by high international migration.

The highest international migration:
.New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area 287,993
.Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metro Area 213,227
.Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area 130,009
.Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX Metro Area 128,135
.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metro Area 102,702
.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area 96,448
.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area 83,844
.Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro Area 70,731
.San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area 67,708
.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL Metro Area 66,800
.Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area 63,849
.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metro Area 52,618
.Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metro Area 49,691
.Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area 48,833
.San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area 44,829
.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area 43,292
.Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area 40,347
.Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area 27,946
.Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV Metro Area 27,701
.Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area 27,162

Why does Austin get relatively so few immigrants? Crazy seeing it have fewer immigrants than Detroit

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Why does Austin get relatively so few immigrants? Crazy seeing it have fewer immigrants than Detroit

Detroit is at least twice the size of Austin, and a generation ago was more like 10 times the size of Austin. I don't think it's particularly surprising that it gets more immigrants, especially given the existing Middle Eastern population.

Detroit is hardly an immigration mecca, but gets significantly more immigrants proportionally than most of the older inland metros. Definitely more than Cleveland, Cincy, Pittsburgh, Indy, St. Louis.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Detroit is at least twice the size of Austin, and a generation ago was more like 10 times the size of Austin. I don't think it's particularly surprising that it gets more immigrants, especially given the existing Middle Eastern population.

Detroit is hardly an immigration mecca, but gets significantly more immigrants proportionally than most of the older inland metros. Definitely more than Cleveland, Cincy, Pittsburgh, Indy, St. Louis.

Orlando is a big surprise for immigrants as I don't recall it being an immigrant pull in the past even with Latin Americans and Caribbeans. It's been known to for domestic migration, most recently Puerto Ricans.

[bilbao58]

I'm most surprised that Houston is neck-and-neck with LA in international migration. Especially considering how much larger LA's metro population is.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

I'm most surprised that Houston is neck-and-neck with LA in international migration. Especially considering how much larger LA's metro population is.

We're more affordable so it makes sense.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

The 2024 population estimates are out. Here are the top 10 growth contenders among US metros, July 1, 2023-July 1, 2024

1. New York City: up 213,403 to 19,940,274 (1.1% YoY increase)
2. Houston: up 198,171 to 7,796,182 (2.5%)
3. Dallas-Fort Worth: up 177,922 to 8,344,032 (2.1%)
4. Miami: up 123,471 to 6,457,988 (1.9%)
5. Washington, D.C.: up 90,608 to 6,436,489 (1.4%)
6. Phoenix: up 84,938 to 5,186,958 (1.6%)
7. Orlando: up 75,969 to 2,940,513 (2.6%)
8. Atlanta: up 75,134 to 6,411,149 (1.7%)
9. Chicago: up 70,762 to 9,408,576 (0.8%)
10. Seattle: up 66,666 to 4,145,494 (1.6%)

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-re...metro-micro.html#counties-numeric-growth

Odd not seeing Austin TX anywhere on the top 10 lists. Not even the counties of Austin or San Antonio, if I am correct. Guess it has gotten too pricy and perhaps crowded for now...

[JoninATX]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Odd not seeing Austin TX anywhere on the top 10 lists. Not even the counties of Austin or San Antonio, if I am correct. Guess it has gotten too pricy and perhaps crowded for now...

Actually both cities are still growing rapidly. Austin is slightly down from 62,000 in 2023 to over 58,000 last year. Though I do see growth trends increasing as affordability returns back to normal.

San Antonio 2,763,006 - 47,297 - 1.74%

Austin 2,550,637 - 58,019 - 2.33%

[mhays]

It grew 58,019. That's slightly faster than the average for 2010-2020 (if the metro boundaries have stayed the same). It's easily more than average for any previous decade.

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by mhays

It grew 58,019. That's slightly faster than the average for 2010-2020 (if the metro boundaries have stayed the same). It's easily more than average for any previous decade.

The boundaries haven't changed. The Austin MSA has had the same five counties (Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop, and Caldwell) for decades.

[N90]

Originally Posted by The ATX

Here's the list of the 20 fastest growing large Metros (1M+ population) for 2024. Austin's growth rate improved over 2023, but so did the rate for a few other cities. Austin is the #4 fastest growing large Metro while last year's #1 Jacksonville dropped to #7. Austin also passed Portland to become the #25 largest Metro.

By percentage it’s #4

Off topic but Atlanta’s really cooled down the last 10 years. DC and Miami both surpassed it.