Canadian Federal Election

[Taeolas]

I get the feeling Carney (and the Liberals in general) aren't in a Federal Campaign mode yet. We've been 'fooled' because PP and the CPC have been campaigning for a year so far, but it feels like Trudeau, Carney and the Liberals in general are focused on letting their actions speak for them, especially in responding to the Tradewar in general.

Once Carney is PM, and the election is called, I'm sure the attacks against the CPC and PP will come out. For now, they aren't really needed as much.

[suburbanite]

Pierre has not been able to pivot to a post-Trudeau, Trump-dominated election cycle. He appears to be hesitant to strongly call out the administration, either because he thinks that there's somehow a portion of the Canadian base that is still MAGA and could pivot to the PPC, or because he thinks that Trump will react better to a Conservative PM that massages his ego.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I get the feeling Carney (and the Liberals in general) aren't in a Federal Campaign mode yet. We've been 'fooled' because PP and the CPC have been campaigning for a year so far, but it feels like Trudeau, Carney and the Liberals in general are focused on letting their actions speak for them, especially in responding to the Tradewar in general.

Once Carney is PM, and the election is called, I'm sure the attacks against the CPC and PP will come out. For now, they aren't really needed as much.

The LPC actually has quite a collection of effective attack ads comparing Poilievre and Trump, they are just mostly on their social media accounts, especially instagram, they just aren’t spending crazy amounts to ensure their ads are 50% of the ads Canadians see before watching something on YouTube, or on TV all the time, like we’re seeing from the CPC right now.

• Video Link

I think the CPC got the scare put in them from Carney, and it’s caused them to go overboard on their attack ads, both in terms of the message, and the frequency. I think it’s been mostly a miscalculation on their part… almost every time a Canadian goes to watch a video about the next crazy thing Donald Trump does, one of their Trump style attack ads is most likely going to play before the video… and the vast majority of boomers don’t use as blockers.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

In the recent Pierre P press conference - listen to his words very carefully - he does not denounce Trump directly. He did not call him out on Zelensky treatment Friday. On the tariffs he spent more time blaming Carney and Trudeau...

This is painfully out of touch with reality and how average Canadians see the situation.

Who is advising him?!?!

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

This is painfully out of touch with reality and how average Canadians see the situation.

Who is advising him?!?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenni_Byrne

[Hackslack]

Updated Léger poll March 4

https://leger360.com/fed-pol-mar-3/

-If a federal election were held today, 43% of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada, while 30% would vote for the Liberal Party. The Conservative Party of Canada has increased by five points compared to last week (35%), while the Liberal Party of Canada has decreased by five points (35%). Volatility in the public environment continues.

-With Mark Carney as leader, Liberal support would rise to 33% (+3), while Conservative support would be at 41%. If Marc Carney were the leader of the Liberal Party, the Conservatives still lead among Canadians’ voting preferences—by 8 points.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ Both would result in a CPC majority.

A LPC -5 points since Leger's last poll. Not sure if noise, but it is a statistically significant difference from their last release.

[Hackslack]

Insanely volatile. I don’t trust any poll anymore

[BlackDog204]

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

^ Both would result in a CPC majority.

A LPC -5 points since Leger's last poll. Not sure if noise, but it is a statistically significant difference from their last release.

Campaigns matter. The amazing thing is that it appears this one will too. A month ago nobody would have thought that.

[Djeffery]

I think we are seeing the same type of thing that happened in the US last year. Biden dropped out, euphoria on the left as Harris took over and promptly got stomped in the election. Liberals are feeling pretty good about themselves compared to where they were 2 months ago, let's see after this weekend whether they are able to grow and carry that momentum through an election.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I think we are seeing the same type of thing that happened in the US last year. Biden dropped out, euphoria on the left as Harris took over and promptly got stomped in the election. Liberals are feeling pretty good about themselves compared to where they were 2 months ago, let's see after this weekend whether they are able to grow and carry that momentum through an election.

If the Liberals lose as Kamala did by 1.5% they will win and decisively so especially if the NDP are nearing single digits. The 1993 and 1984 results would suggest a reversion to the mean.

Even if tariffs are paused again it looks like the ballot question is who can guide Canada in this troubled and scary times. It's really hard to see Carney not winning that decisively in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and in Urban Ontario. Assuming a low NDP result ekeing out wins in the suburbs seems well within reach which combined would be a win before we get to the Manitoba border.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I think we are seeing the same type of thing that happened in the US last year. Biden dropped out, euphoria on the left as Harris took over and promptly got stomped in the election. Liberals are feeling pretty good about themselves compared to where they were 2 months ago, let's see after this weekend whether they are able to grow and carry that momentum through an election.

The difference is Trump is an existential threat to Canada. While he is at it, he is also an existential threat to the free world.

Carney is here to say, I have helped manage our economy through difficult times. I can do it again. I will be tough with Trump.

PP is all over the map on Trump. While I don't like PP, I am truly surprised he is struggling with this. Ford is modelling the way of how a Conservative can be Conservative and also realistic on what needs to be done to manage the Trump risk.

I don't think Harris experience is all that relevant in the Canadian context.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I think we are seeing the same type of thing that happened in the US last year. Biden dropped out, euphoria on the left as Harris took over and promptly got stomped in the election. Liberals are feeling pretty good about themselves compared to where they were 2 months ago, let's see after this weekend whether they are able to grow and carry that momentum through an election.

This would be true if instead of Kamala Harris it was an all time dream candidate. There’s not really a Mark Carney equivalent in American politics, as their central bankers were highly unpopular throughout the entirety of the Great Recession that Obama pulled America out of.

Maybe the equivalent in American politics would be like if Austan Goolsbee was chosen instead of Kamala out of nowhere. Except, unlike Goolsbee who isn’t known by many Americans, Carney is a well known entity in Canadian governance. Boomers especially remember and revere him for delivering Canada through the 2008 financial crisis. The Canadian equivalent to Kamala, is Chrystia, not Mark Carney.

American’s don’t respect bankers, Canadians generally do. Not many people thought Mark Carney would actually run 3 months ago, but he’s long been considered the one candidate that might actually give the LPC a shot to win the election. His candidacy is fundamentally different than Harris’s… basically no one considered Harris a dream candidate… many, many people have long considered Carney to be the dream candidate for the Liberals, well before he announced his candidacy.

We’re getting the mini primary that Democrats wanted, and not only that, candidate is going to get the benefit of being the incumbent head of government… something Biden was unwilling to do. Harris might have had a fighting chance had Obama resigned from the presidency the day he announced he was dropping out of the 2024 race.

[WarrenC12]

It feels like PP is viewing this whole Trump fiasco like Alberta is. The US needs oil, so tariffs are low, they'll survive it, and keep selling to whoever. He doesn't seem to have any concept on the impact to the manufacturing base of Canada in Ontario, and levers that can be pulled with respect to electricity and raw materials to the US.

Ford understands Ontario, I'll give him that.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It feels like PP is viewing this whole Trump fiasco like Alberta is. The US needs oil, so tariffs are low, they'll survive it, and keep selling to whoever. He doesn't seem to have any concept on the impact to the manufacturing base of Canada in Ontario, and levers that can be pulled with respect to electricity and raw materials to the US.

Ford understands Ontario, I'll give him that.

Even if you have that view economically politically it seems to border on malpractice. The path to even a minority government require seats in the industrial heartland. This is not the time to listen to your caucus.

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

^ Both would result in a CPC majority.

A LPC -5 points since Leger's last poll. Not sure if noise, but it is a statistically significant difference from their last release.

Could be the effect of the Ontario election ending.

[svlt]

The leadership debate didn't seem to move the needle much for the Liberals, if anything a relatively quiet week for MAGA standards last week probably led to a dip back to where they were. Honestly think it's Trump and his insanity - and Pierre's odd complete inability to rise to the occasion the way Ford, a fellow Conservative has - that's what's propping up the LPC.

This week has been a totally wild start with tariffs and annexation bluster (Canadians care 10x more about that than whatever arguments he has with Zelensky), so I would expect another lift end of week unless somehow Trump manages to be completely invisible the rest of the week, and then probably another bump after (presumably) Carney is officially the PM.

Then the real campaigning starts. I'd be shocked if he doesn't call an election immediately.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

This would be true if instead of Kamala Harris it was an all time dream candidate. There’s not really a Mark Carney equivalent in American politics, as their central bankers were highly unpopular throughout the entirety of the Great Recession that Obama pulled America out of.

Maybe the equivalent in American politics would be like if Austan Goolsbee was chosen instead of Kamala out of nowhere. Except, unlike Goolsbee who isn’t known by many Americans, Carney is a well known entity in Canadian governance. Boomers especially remember and revere him for delivering Canada through the 2008 financial crisis. The Canadian equivalent to Kamala, is Chrystia, not Mark Carney.

American’s don’t respect bankers, Canadians generally do. Not many people thought Mark Carney would actually run 3 months ago, but he’s long been considered the one candidate that might actually give the LPC a shot to win the election. His candidacy is fundamentally different than Harris’s… basically no one considered Harris a dream candidate… many, many people have long considered Carney to be the dream candidate for the Liberals, well before he announced his candidacy.

We’re getting the mini primary that Democrats wanted, and not only that, candidate is going to get the benefit of being the incumbent head of government… something Biden was unwilling to do. Harris might have had a fighting chance had Obama resigned from the presidency the day he announced he was dropping out of the 2024 race.

I'm sorry, you are saying Carney is more a dream candidate here than Harris was in the US? I think Carney is a pretty much unknown to anyone who doesn't follow politics. Sure, this is our mini-primary, but it wouldn't have mattered in the US if they had their primary. Aside from Pence last year, who was actually running against a former President , Vice Presidents get the nomination when they seek it. I'm not even going to bother going back to finding when the last time a VP didn't get their party's nod for the top spot because it wouldn't be relevant to our times. And of course, you meant if Biden had resigned last July, but he also knew she had a lot of work ahead of her to run a campaign that just started with 3 months to go to also be taking on the work of being President at the same time.

My point is, the Liberals are getting their bounce now, the way Harris did, but when it got down to it, it wasn't sustainable. At least here, unlike the US, voters aren't going to be looking at the opposition as the party of the good times 5 years ago. But it's going to be a real uphill struggle for the Liberals to turn this ship around after 10 years in power, no matter who the leader is. This is still the CPC's to lose. I do think Carney's best chance is to get that election in as soon as possible before the economy comes to a screeching halt from the tariffs. He's probably not taking office for 2 weeks, so I would expect the election call to happen instead of Parliament coming back on the 24th. The funny thing is that Pierre has been pushing for an election so hard that the best thing now for him would be to wait a few months.

[Marshsparrow]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

I'm sorry, you are saying Carney is more a dream candidate here than Harris was in the US? I think Carney is a pretty much unknown to anyone who doesn't follow politics. Sure, this is our mini-primary, but it wouldn't have mattered in the US if they had their primary. Vice Presidents get the nomination when they seek it. I'm not even going to bother going back to finding when the last time a VP didn't get their party's nod for the top spot because it wouldn't be relevant to our times. And of course, you meant if Biden had resigned last July, but he also knew she had a lot of work ahead of her to run a campaign that just started with 3 months to go to also be taking on the work of being President at the same time.

My point is, the Liberals are getting their bounce now, the way Harris did, but when it got down to it, it wasn't sustainable. At least here, unlike the US, voters aren't going to be looking at the opposition as the party of the good times 5 years ago. But it's going to be a real uphill struggle for the Liberals to turn this ship around after 10 years in power, no matter who the leader is. This is still the CPC's to lose. I do think Carney's best chance is to get that election in as soon as possible before the economy comes to a screeching halt from the tariffs. He's probably not taking office for 2 weeks, so I would expect the election call to happen instead of Parliament coming back on the 24th. The funny thing is that Pierre has been pushing for an election so hard that the best thing now for him would be to wait a few months.

Imagine if the CPC would have picked a leader that is likeable. The more PP opens his mouth (like yesterday), the more people are turned off by him.

Doug Ford has his eye on PP's role... Ford knows how to stick a knife in the back.