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  #1701  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2025, 2:53 PM
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Originally Posted by new kid in town View Post
So when is Moncton getting its own sub-forum? At 200k?
This is primarily a philosophical question. Is this what the Moncton forumers really want?

This question has come up before, about a dozen tears ago when St. John's got their own subforum. The site administrators at the time felt that Moncton wasn't ready yet, and that the creation of a Moncton subforum would adversely change the character of the Atlantic Canada section. Moncton has of course grown in the meantime, and circumstances have changed. But, have they changed enough?

Subforums are rare in the Canada section. There are only 11 subforums for all of Canada. There are a number of cities larger than Moncton without a subforum, maintaining individual threads in regional sections like Moncton does now.

The argument can be made that excessive conpartmentalization within a regional section can stifle interaction and cross-community discussion. This is a valid point. The participants in the Halifax subforum rarely participate in discussions in the broader Atlantic Canada section. Similarly, I don't see many comments in the Halifax subforum from the broader Atlantic Canada community. If a Moncton subforum was created,would Saint Johners and Frederictonians visit the Moncton threads less frequently?

Of course, a Moncton subforum would improve organization of the threads, making them easier to find, especially as they fall off the bottom of the page (as sometimes happens). Having a subforum is also a badge of prestige.

I used to be a proponent of a Moncton subforum, but, I am now less sure. Of course it will have to happen at some point. Personally, I think a 250,000 CMA population would be a better threshold. In terms of overall activity, I think the Moncton threads are busy enough now for a subforum to be created, but, I am worried what this would do to the character and flavour of the Atlantic Canada section in general. I don't think the timing is right.

It would be interesting to get the opinion of our resident moderator mylesmalley on this issue.
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  #1702  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2025, 5:17 PM
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Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy View Post
CMAs can't merge.
What do you mean? The Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton CMA’s could three regional municipalities. Maybe not 100% of total population of each CMA, but at least 80%.

If Halifax and Cape Breton can do it, so can the big 3 in NB.
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  #1703  
Old Posted Jan 25, 2025, 6:17 PM
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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn View Post
What do you mean? The Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton CMA’s could three regional municipalities. Maybe not 100% of total population of each CMA, but at least 80%.

If Halifax and Cape Breton can do it, so can the big 3 in NB.
You guys are talking about two different things.

He's saying once a CMA, always a CMA. For example, the Oshawa CMA can never get absorbed by the Toronto CMA (for statistical purposes).

You're talking about political amalgamation, which is always possible since cities and municipalities are creatures of the province, and if the province wanted to create regional municipalities at any time, it could, and without municipal consent. Such a move (especially in NB) is very risky for ethnocultural, linguistic and political reasons.
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  #1704  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2025, 2:01 AM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
You guys are talking about two different things.

He's saying once a CMA, always a CMA. For example, the Oshawa CMA can never get absorbed by the Toronto CMA (for statistical purposes).

You're talking about political amalgamation, which is always possible since cities and municipalities are creatures of the province, and if the province wanted to create regional municipalities at any time, it could, and without municipal consent. Such a move (especially in NB) is very risky for ethnocultural, linguistic and political reasons.
And I guess there’s a risk anytime you pull a bandaid off too, right Doc?

I think the risks of amalgamating the three main CMA’s in NB are entirely overblown. What’s the risk anyways? More growth? More development? When it comes down to it, why do most migrants (both internal and international) coming to NB pick Moncton over Saint John and Fredericton? They look up the cities, see Moncton has the largest population, and they make their choice.

New Brunswick needs to get over these provincial attitudes that are holding our cities back… if you look around Canada amalgamation has been the trend for decades, and there’s few CMA’s where the outlying suburbs make up close to 50% of the CMA’s population.

I’d argue the bigger risk for NB is the province not having the political courage to push through amalgamations in the big three CMAs and continuing to allow the tail to wag the dog in regions in our CMAs. Amalgamation wouldn’t wipe Rothesay, Quispamsis, Hanwell, Dieppe, and Shediac off the map, it would just make them part of regional municipalities that cooperate better and share costs more than the current way of doing things where we have CMA’s with very nice, very well funded suburban towns, with poorly funded urban centres at their core that are struggling to fund the infrastructure and investments needed to sustain both long term economic development and demographic growth.

If we want our cities to compete with the rest of Canada into the future, amalgamation not only needs to be on the table, it needs to be a priority. I’m biased, obviously, just as people are in the Saint John suburbs, but I don’t think there’s a CMA in Canada with as much disparity and discontent between a city and its outlying suburbs as there is in the Saint John Region. Imo, it’s very much a case of the tail wagging the dog, and we needn’t look any further than the HRM to understand what the prescription to this problem is: amalgamation.

Saint John is one of the oldest municipalities in Canada, so I think it’s logical why amalgamation should take place here first, but it could also make more sense to simply amalgamate all three CMA’s at the same time and rip the bandaid off all at once. If you start with Saint John and it causes a bunch of butthurt and discontent, which is likely given how stuck up our outlying suburbs are, it risks poisoning the well for future amalgamations in the Moncton and Fredericton CMA’s. However, if you amalgamate all three at the same time, there will be less of a focus on the negative aspects of amalgamation in one city, and more of an opportunity for amalgamation to be a competition between the three new regional municipalities to see who can make it work the best.

Plus, as much as many of you say “it’s not a competition”, I don’t think many in Moncton would like to see Saint John pass Moncton in city proper population simply by amalgamating. It is a competition though, between cities and between provinces. Amalgamating the three main NB CMAs into regional municipalities won’t end the competition between Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton, but it will make NB better able to compete with other provinces to attract more of the top quality migrants to come here to NB instead of someplace else in Canada. Amalgamations and regional municipalities worked well for Nova Scotia, and would work well in NB too… people just need to get over themselves and embrace change for the bigger and better.
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  #1705  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2025, 2:37 AM
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I don't see any need for a Southern New Brunswick Regional Municipality. The distances are too big, with too much wilderness in between; even between SJ and Moncton.

And the existing cities all have their own distinctive characters already and are growing well. There's no reason to try and squeeze three square pegs into a bigger triangular hole.
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  #1706  
Old Posted Jan 26, 2025, 2:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
I don't see any need for a Southern New Brunswick Regional Municipality. The distances are too big, with too much wilderness in between; even between SJ and Moncton.

And the existing cities all have their own distinctive characters already and are growing well. There's no reason to try and squeeze three square pegs into a bigger triangular hole.

Who said anything about a regional municipality for Southern NB?

I’m talking about amalgamations to create three separate regional municipalities in the SJ, Fredericton, and Moncton regions. There’s no wilderness separating Saint John, NB from Rothesay, NB… just an invisible line and a commitment to snobbery.

Regional amalgamations to create larger, more populous municipalities will make the three main metro areas more competitive and set the province up to sustain long term economic development and demographic growth.

Halifax and Cape Breton are both better off because of regional amalgamation… so why wouldn’t Saint John, Fredericton, and Moncton be better off amalgamating as well?

I’m confident all three cities would be better off.

Last edited by EnvisionSaintJohn; Jan 28, 2025 at 4:43 PM.
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  #1707  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2025, 11:57 PM
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I feel Saint Andrew's will be underwater in a couple of decades. St.Stephen and Calais will be under same muniscipality. A first nation politician will be leader of nb,ns, pei someday sooner then you think. I'm from saint john I do see 500000 people here before I die. With heavy immigration.

Just something I wanted to tell ya what I think will happen
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  #1708  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2025, 5:18 PM
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Housing starts expected to slow over coming years: CMHC

https://www.country94.ca/2025/02/05/housing-starts-expected-to-slow-over-coming-years-cmhc/

Quote:
"Canada’s housing market could face considerable headwinds in the months ahead due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and lower immigration levels.

That is according to the latest housing market outlook released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) on Wednesday.

Officials expect housing starts will slow over the next three years but remain above their 10-year average, mainly due to fewer condominium apartments being built.

“With low investor interest and more young families looking for family-friendly homes, developers will find it harder to sell enough units to fund new projects,” CMHC said in its report.

“The increase in unsold units will likely reduce new project launches, leading to a decline in new condominium apartment construction.”

Housing sales are forecast to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand.

But CMHC warned that recovery will be uneven, with slower progress in less affordable regions and in the condominium apartment market.

Officials expect resale homes will attract more renewed demand compared to new homes as they offer more options for homebuyers who are financially constrained.

“In addition, the length of new construction projects may limit developers’ ability to meet demand quickly,” according to the report.

However, some of those homebuyers may face longer loan terms, higher interest costs over the duration of the loan and larger down payments as prices continue to rise.

Home prices are expected to grow faster in 2025, which CMHC said reflects a recovery and renewed demand for ground-oriented homes, before slowing down in 2026 and 2027.

“Although mortgage payments and prices will rise, improved job markets and income growth will make housing more attainable than during the 2022 – 2024 period,” said the report.

Rental markets are also expected to ease with higher vacancy rates slowing rent growth. Renter affordability will improve gradually, said CMHC, with more noticeable changes happening later in the forecast period".
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  #1709  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2025, 1:50 PM
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Atlantic Canada employment numbers for January:

Nova Scotia employment: 527,000
unemployment rate: 5.9%

New Brunswick employment: 403,000
Unemployment rate: 6.4%

Newfoundland and Labrador employment: 243,000
Unemployment rate: 10.6%

Prince Edward Island employment: 94,000
Unemployment rate: 7.2%



Link to data:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250207/dq250207a-eng.htm?HPA=1
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Last edited by KnoxfordGuy; Feb 7, 2025 at 2:55 PM.
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  #1710  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2025, 1:33 PM
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Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy View Post
I tracked the population clock over the last 24 hours and it shows that New Brunswick population growth has dropped dramatically. We grew 12 people in the last 24 hours. Population growth in Canada has crashed.
KnoxfordGuy posted this on the national statistics thread, but I thought it was worthwhile posting this here too.

I've noticed this too. The NB population estimate on the Population Clock has effectively stalled (occasionally revised downwards to correct for overly optimistic growth projections). NB will be lucky to add 5,000 people this year. We are in fact within a whisker of negative population growth.

In some ways this might be good (if this is a temporary phenomenon), as t would give us breathing room to deal with the housing, health care and educational crises due to overgrowth, but, we unquestionably need new people to fill job vacancies in the province. We need to boost growth in the longer term.

Now, I still expect the cities to grow (especially Moncton), due to intra provincial migration, but, the days of 10,000-12,000 new Moncton residents per year are over for now.
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  #1711  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2025, 3:48 PM
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
KnoxfordGuy posted this on the national statistics thread, but I thought it was worthwhile posting this here too.

I've noticed this too. The NB population estimate on the Population Clock has effectively stalled (occasionally revised downwards to correct for overly optimistic growth projections). NB will be lucky to add 5,000 people this year. We are in fact within a whisker of negative population growth.

In some ways this might be good (if this is a temporary phenomenon), as t would give us breathing room to deal with the housing, health care and educational crises due to overgrowth, but, we unquestionably need new people to fill job vacancies in the province. We need to boost growth in the longer term.

Now, I still expect the cities to grow (especially Moncton), due to intra provincial migration, but, the days of 10,000-12,000 new Moncton residents per year are over for now.
Two pages ago in this thread, when reporting on declining population growth started:
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Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy View Post
Journalists don't understand demographics, the understand headline grabbing.
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  #1712  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2025, 4:38 PM
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I was blinded by denial. I hope this super slow growth is short lived.
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  #1713  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2025, 5:14 PM
MonctonGoldenTri MonctonGoldenTri is online now
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
KnoxfordGuy posted this on the national statistics thread, but I thought it was worthwhile posting this here too.

I've noticed this too. The NB population estimate on the Population Clock has effectively stalled (occasionally revised downwards to correct for overly optimistic growth projections). NB will be lucky to add 5,000 people this year. We are in fact within a whisker of negative population growth.

In some ways this might be good (if this is a temporary phenomenon), as t would give us breathing room to deal with the housing, health care and educational crises due to overgrowth, but, we unquestionably need new people to fill job vacancies in the province. We need to boost growth in the longer term.

Now, I still expect the cities to grow (especially Moncton), due to intra provincial migration, but, the days of 10,000-12,000 new Moncton residents per year are over for now.




If you had to bet, do you think Moncton will go back to the normal 3,500-4,000 yearly growth, or is 4,000-6,000 likely the new normal? Now that NB affordability secret is out I believe we'll fall back to pre-pandemic levels + 15-30%.
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  #1714  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2025, 9:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri View Post
[/B]


If you had to bet, do you think Moncton will go back to the normal 3,500-4,000 yearly growth, or is 4,000-6,000 likely the new normal? Now that NB affordability secret is out I believe we'll fall back to pre-pandemic levels + 15-30%.
There is also the uptick of workplaces that are not allowing fully remote work. A lot of those who gave fully remote work during the pandemic, have clawed it back to 2 or 3 days a week mandatory in the office.

Which might explain the downturn of interprovincial movement.
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  #1715  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2025, 9:16 PM
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New Brunswick was featured in today's building permit statistics.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250313/dq250313b-eng.htm

Quote:
Residential construction intentions decreased by $312.7 million (-3.4%) to $8.8 billion in January after increasing by $1.7 billion in December 2024. Overall, the multi-family component declined by $424.2 million in January 2025, while the single-family component increased by $111.4 million.

Ontario's multi-family component (-$738.5 million) led the decline in January, after being a significant contributor to residential sector gains in the previous month.

New Brunswick (+$195.9 million) and Quebec (+$186.3 million) partially offset residential sector losses in January. The monthly gains in New Brunswick's residential sector were due to the multi-family component (+$199.7 million) and were concentrated in the Fredericton census metropolitan area (CMA) (+$83.9 million) and in the Moncton CMA (+$78.5 million). Quebec's residential sector growth was also driven by the multi-family component (+$139.8 million), fuelled by gains in the Montréal CMA (+$160.2 million), and supported by the province's single-family component (+$46.5 million).


https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021005-eng.htm
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  #1716  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2025, 1:46 PM
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4th quarter population numbers for Jan 1st are out. NB the only Atlantic province to see growth with a gain of 1700ish. All others dropped by a few hundred each. The immigration halt is going to make us suffer. Canada grew on par with 4th quarter numbers pre covid.
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  #1717  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2025, 2:27 PM
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Originally Posted by bingun View Post
Some interesting stuff in there.

Over $175M in building permits in the Moncton CMA in January – any ideas as to what contributed to that? That's a huge number.

Over $100M for Fredericton CMA is also big. The city of Fredericton had about $55M in permits including $50M in residential and I suspect there must be some commercial/industrial projects outside the city contributing to the remaining $45M.
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  #1718  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2025, 2:38 PM
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Originally Posted by OliverD View Post
Some interesting stuff in there.

Over $175M in building permits in the Moncton CMA in January – any ideas as to what contributed to that? That's a huge number.

Over $100M for Fredericton CMA is also big. The city of Fredericton had about $55M in permits including $50M in residential and I suspect there must be some commercial/industrial projects outside the city contributing to the remaining $45M.
I suspect Gateway Towers got its building permit.
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  #1719  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2025, 2:47 PM
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I suspect Gateway Towers got its building permit.
Agreed. There are also industrial park expansions planned or ongoing on in both Moncton and Dieppe.
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  #1720  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2025, 2:51 PM
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Looking back at previous news stories about Gateway Towers, the estimated value was $90 million. That probably only went up as plans were refined. So that and a few other buildings getting approved would likely account for the total.
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