Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

A Certain economic boon seems to be very suspect. All those insurance and other income economy and Canadian corporate back office jobs would disappear. The Port may suffer. Tourism could benefit or the strong dollar and loss of the Canadian market could do the opposite.
This has been discussed in other threads but the idea that being on the periphery of the US is a successful model isn't backed by looking at the economies of Maine, upstate New York or Northern Vermont or New Hampshire.

GDP per capita in CAD

VT 95k
ME 95k
NH 115k

[big T]

Originally Posted by Acajack

François Legault loves this stuff:

https://x.com/francoislegault/status/1887143615597515074/photo/1

Yeah, it's a well known fact that the performance of an economy is mainly driven by which party is in power. Much more relevant than macro economic context and forces beyond the grasp of the almighty CAQ! Good job Frankie.

[Acajack]

The poorest county in Maine (not close to being the poorest in the US, but probably among the poorest in the northeast) has an average family income of 65k USD which is 93k CAD.

The average for Canadian families across the country is 70k CAD.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

GDP per capita in CAD

VT 95k
ME 95k
NH 115k

Yes but the bulk in NH and ME is from the southern practically Boston suburbs research nodes. Though Vermont is certainly an example of what is possible. I think it's a leap calling it certain when you have areas like Houlton Maine or Watertown NY along the northern edge of the US. Montreal is obviously a huge diverse economy but if Quebec tried to maintain it's massive taxation levels in order to provide its current social safety net without the border barrier it seems it would bleed jobs quickly to the United States. French would help compared to the rest of Canada but it there are still clearly downsides.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but the bulk in NH and ME is from the southern practically Boston suburbs research nodes. Though Vermont is certainly an example of what is possible. I think it's a leap calling it certain when you have areas like Houlton Maine or Watertown NY along the northern edge of the US. Montreal is obviously a huge diverse economy but if Quebec tried to maintain it's massive taxation levels in order to provide its current social safety net without the border barrier it seems it would bleed jobs quickly to the United States. French would help compared to the rest of Canada but it there are still clearly downsides.

Nothing about anything is "certain".

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is basically in line with broader Canadian economic performance. Nothing particular about Quebec here.

If it was in line with broader Canadian economic performance, the curve wouldn't rise. Are you sure you understand what this graph is about?

[big T]

Nothing is ever certain, sure.

Though it's way more of a stretch to claim "it's very much an open question whether Quebec would benefit economically from open access to the US market" than it is to claim "under every plausible scenario we can think of, it would be a boon".

In fact nothing about this is Quebec specific, either. Any Canadian province, alone or jointly, would benefit economically from effective integration into the US market. Even the argument that some of our regions are extremely peripheral (say, NFLD) doesn't really hold in my mind. Just think, a major reason why the US would even want that territory is the ability to establish military bases there.

None of this is to say that this should, or would, carry any weight for Canadians (including Québecois) when weighing the pros and cons of joining the US, under whatever status. Right now I think most of us are overwhelmingly hostile to the idea, but the reasons are not economic in nature.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by big T

Nothing is ever certain, sure.

Though it's way more of a stretch to claim "it's very much an open question whether Quebec would benefit economically from open access to the US market" than it is to claim "under every plausible scenario we can think of, it would be a boon".

In fact nothing about this is Quebec specific, either. Any Canadian province, alone or jointly, would benefit economically from effective integration into the US market. Even the argument that some of our regions are extremely peripheral (say, NFLD) doesn't really hold in my mind. Just think, a major reason why the US would even want that territory is the ability to establish military bases there.

None of this is to say that this should, or would, carry any weight for Canadians (including Québecois) when weighing the pros and cons of joining the US, under whatever status. Right now I think most of us are overwhelmingly hostile to the idea, but the reasons are not economic in nature.

Values-based or aesthetic?

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Indeed. If the Yanks had good intel that the leader of the new PQ government of an independent Quebec was planning a peace and friendship meeting with the Chinese or Russians, I think that would be the end of the sovereigntist dream tout de suite.

If you think dealing with those damned Canadian anglos is bad, wait until your only neighbour is the Americans!!!

If I recall well, it is the French Canadians who stopped the Americans during the 1775 and 1812 invasions. And the US were already 30 times more populated than French Canada.

So yes technically the US have the nuclear bomb today, which they didn't have back then, but they are not going to nuke Montréal.

An invasion of Québec, which would be opposed by a large majority of the US population, including by Trump voters, would lead to a massive insurgency bogging down the US Army for years.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I suppose the argument would be that unjustified "Quebec bashing" exaggerates the risk. I would have thought most business would be bright enough to see through it and act in their own best interest.

They are. Sovereignists just get their knickers twisted when it doesn't work out their way.

Capital goes where the return is best and the risk is the least. In this regard, their movement is challenging on two fronts. First, that separatism creates all kinds of uncertainty. And next that their separatist party is not particularly pro-investment or pro-business. We're talking about a province that is heavily dependent on federal transfers to maintain their public services and quality of life. From an investment perspective, separation looks like a substantial reduction in market potential with an accompanying increase in taxation. What business would happily sign on to that? That people see this as conspiracy is the cherry on top.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

If it was in line with broader Canadian economic performance, the curve wouldn't rise. Are you sure you understand what this graph is about?

A graph comparing to Ontario during a period of de-industrialization doesn't say much. Canada is more than Ontario. More relevant to Quebec and separatism is national economic performance and particularly relative to the province paying a lot of Quebec's bills indirectly: Alberta.

[big T]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Values-based or aesthetic?

¿Por qué no los dos?

Maybe I misunderstand the distinction you're drawing. I think right now most Canadians, including Quebecers, are feeling betrayed and bullied. So that's a pretty clear values clash I'd say. Aesthetically, I don't think joining the US carries the lustre it may once have had. It used to be all space program and Hollywood, but nowadays it seems to boil down to broligarchs and twitter rage baiting. I'm talking optics, of course - there is much more to the US than this. But, the brand needs mending. So it's both "we don't like how they're bullying us" and "we wouldn't want to be associated with them on the world stage", potential gains be damned.

I guess what we're saying is Canadians are not gold diggers

What are you thinking? what if anything would stop you from checking "yes" on a "be a territory" poll? if you don't mind sharing of course.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I think the dip we see around 2012 approximates Pauline Marois' term.

I'm not so sure. Here are the years.



So it looks like Pauline Marois was indeed PM when the rise took place in 2013 (the one year when she was PM from January to December). She's not responsible for the dip in 2012, since she came to power in September. You can say she's responsible for the fall in 2014, since she left power in April, too late for the new PM to have a meaningful impact in 2014.

So it's like I said earlier, a rise in her first year, then a fall.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

The PQ has always viewed the business community with suspicion, and has never seriously attempted to woo the local business community to its side. Perhaps they reject the pragmatism of entrepreneurs and see them as a threat. The PQ is much more comfortable with its traditional base the FTQ, and historically it has excelled the most at executing large state run enterprises like HydroQuebec.

So you mean they are... very French? I'm shocked!

PS: This was not true of Lucien Bouchard though. And I don't think the new PQ leader is and old-school statist either.

PPS: Statism has also its pros though. I'm sure an independent Québec would have a Montréal-Québec City 300 km/h TGV line a century before a united Canada would finally build a Toronto-Montréal TGV line...

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

As for the presence of bases, sure. The US has based all around the world. The local language isn't dying in these places due to the presence of bases, though sure there have often been tensions. (Not necessarily linguistic.)

The bases would presumably be in Nunavik anyway, surrounded by thousands of km of uninhabited land. A bit like the US base in the very north of Greenland with which the Greenlanders currently have 0 contact. It could as well be on Mars.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

GDP per capita in CAD

VT 95k
ME 95k
NH 115k

Three small states. One is essentially a suburb of Boston. Two are essentially small, rural white states that are agricultural and tourist areas for the whole Northeast Corridor. One of them also has substantial military spending. These are outliers.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

PPS: Statism has also its pros though. I'm sure an independent Québec would have a Montréal-Québec City 300 km/h TGV line a century before a united Canada would finally build a Toronto-Montréal TGV line...

There's nothing stopping Quebec from building it right now. They haven't. They keep waiting for the federal government to pay for it. Indeed, whereas Montreal had the most advanced public transport system in the country at one point, it doesn't come close these days, to what Toronto has and what they are building. So I don't get why you would think an independent Quebec with even more public expenses would suddenly prioritize HSR anymore than they have today.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

François Legault loves this stuff:

https://x.com/francoislegault/status/1887143615597515074/photo/1

Ontario still has the British flag on their flag??

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

So I don't get why you would think an independent Quebec with even more public expenses would suddenly prioritize HSR anymore than they gave today.

Magical francophone nationalist thinking.

Also, New Brisavoine is a troll.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

A graph comparing to Ontario during a period of de-industrialization doesn't say much. Canada is more than Ontario. More relevant to Quebec and separatism is national economic performance and particularly relative to the province paying a lot of Quebec's bills indirectly: Alberta.

What is Canada outside of Québec and Ontario anyway? A giant gas station plus a Chinese real estate bubble in Vancouver?

I'm sorry but it's absolutely SILLY to expect the economy of Québec to compare to the oil fields of Alberta and Newfoundland, and to the rich Chinese parking their money in Vancouver as a precautionary measure.