Canadian Federal Election

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Huge lead still but does show a lot of movement. It's also a 13 point Liberal over NDP lead which is larger than we have seen for some time and must give the NDP pause.

There has been movement, but really the Liberals have just rebounded to where they were sitting prior to the Freeland resignation, where they had spent quite a bit of time over the past year or so. Not surprised to see the rebound, simply because the polling that came in the wake of the Freeland resignation up to Trudeau's resignation was about as close to rock bottom as you can get.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Angus Reid also indicated a huge swell in Liberal support since Carney’s debut on the political scene.

Angus Reid has the Tories winning a huge majority either way, with Carney doing better at taking NDP votes, which plausibly means Carney will be leader of the opposition, but does not change the outcome. I also think that once the attack ads on Carney’s Goldman Sachs and Brookfield days come out, a lot of that NDP support will be fleeting.

[casper]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Angus Reid has the Tories winning a huge majority either way, with Carney doing better at taking NDP votes, which plausibly means Carney will be leader of the opposition, but does not change the outcome. I also think that once the attack ads on Carney’s Goldman Sachs and Brookfield days come out, a lot of that NDP support will be fleeting.

While it is wishful thinking to see him win, I think it is too early to say either way.

Carney is not leader of the Liberal party yet. Most Canadians don't know him. In an election campaign Canadian will get a chance to know him better.

My guess is for every left leaning voter that is offended by a Goldman Saschs alumni as PM there is a right leaning one that is impressed by this economics/financial background.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

While it is wishful thinking to see him win, I think it is too early to say either way.

Carney is not leader of the Liberal party yet. Most Canadians don't know him. In an election campaign Canadian will get a chance to know him better.

My guess is for every left leaning voter that is offended by a Goldman Saschs alumni as PM there is a right leaning one that is impressed by this economics/financial background.

Yes, but these are NDP-Liberal voters, the alternative is the NDP (which is who they were supporting in previous polls).

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by casper

While it is wishful thinking to see him win, I think it is too early to say either way.

Carney is not leader of the Liberal party yet. Most Canadians don't know him. In an election campaign Canadian will get a chance to know him better.

My guess is for every left leaning voter that is offended by a Goldman Saschs alumni as PM there is a right leaning one that is impressed by this economics/financial background.

Said it before,I’ll say it again. Carney’s getting a John Turner bounce. The Libs are still going to splat on election day.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Said it before,I’ll say it again. Carney’s getting a John Turner bounce. The Libs are still going to splat on election day.

Mulroney won a majority, and I think Carney is a much stronger candidate than John Turner was. This election will be decided based on Canada-US Relations, cost of living issues, tax issues, and economic issues.

I think Carney is going to have a lot of the right answers that people are looking for on economic issues, while Poilievre will continue on being the Trump of the North, sloganeering, coming up with nicknames for his political opponents, and blaming them for everything.

If anyone is going to bend the knee to Trump, and sign Canada up for a bad deal, it'll be PP, not Mark Carney.

Carney has a much stronger chance to hold his opponent to a minority than Turner ever did.


Turner didn't have the political gift of an existential crisis called Donald Trump... Brian Mulroney was also infinitely more likeable than Pierre Poilievre.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Mulroney won a majority, and I think Carney is a much stronger candidate than John Turner was. This election will be decided based on Canada-US Relations, cost of living issues, tax issues, and economic issues.

I think Carney is going to have a lot of the right answers that people are looking for on economic issues, while Poilievre will continue on being the Trump of the North, sloganeering, coming up with nicknames for his political opponents, and blaming them for everything.

If anyone is going to bend the knee to Trump, and sign Canada up for a bad deal, it'll be PP, not Mark Carney.

Carney has a much stronger chance to hold his opponent to a minority than Turner ever did.


Turner didn't have the political gift of an existential crisis called Donald Trump... Brian Mulroney was also infinitely more likeable than Pierre Poilievre.

That is a hell of a lot of confidence you have in a man who has pledged nothing in the 3 weeks since he went on John Stewart. (Except for axing the carbon tax, which is just copying Pierre)

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Build.It

That is a hell of a lot of confidence you have in a man who has pledged nothing in the 3 weeks since he went on John Stewart. (Except for axing the carbon tax, which is just copying Pierre)

I thought you’re considering voting for Mark Carney, Build.It?


Did you hear about Carney’s plan to axe the tax?

⛽️ 🪓 🏦

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I thought you’re considering voting for Mark Carney, Build.It?

If I go the selfish route and do what'll make me the most money at the expense of workers, I would.

We know Carney believes in ultra-low interest rates, money printing, and massive deficits. The money spent on these policies all make their way into the pockets of business owners (such as myself) and cause inflation for everyone else (such as you and Molson).

He hasn't said anything to the contrary of this, so I can only assume that is what he will do, since that is what ue has always done.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

:


Did you hear about Carney’s plan to axe the tax?

⛽️ 🪓 🏦

So the one promise that he did make he stole from Pierre.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Build.It

We know Carney believes in ultra-low interest rates, money printing, and massive deficits. The money spent on these policies all make their way into the pockets of business owners and cause inflation for everyone else.

These policies will also devalue the Canadian dollar.

A 50 cent dollar would go a long way towards combatting a 25% Trumpian tariff.

Kill two birds with one stone.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

These policies will also devalue the Canadian dollar.

A 50 cent dollar would go a long way towards combatting a 25% Trumpian tariff.

Kill two birds with one stone.

It would also make the cost of construction 12% more expensive, and pump up house prices even further. Once again in-line with Carney's entire career.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Build.It

It would also make the cost of construction 12% more expensive, and pump up house prices even further. Once again in-line with Carney's entire career.

Are you trying to get home owning boomers to sign up to volunteer for Carney?

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Are you trying to get home owning boomers to sign up to volunteer for Carney?

People are free to vote how they want, but I will make sure that as many people as I have access to know the actual facts.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Build.It

If I go the selfish route and do what'll make me the most money at the expense of workers, I would.

We know Carney believes in ultra-low interest rates, money printing, and massive deficits. The money spent on these policies all make their way into the pockets of business owners (such as myself) and cause inflation for everyone else (such as you and Molson).

He hasn't said anything to the contrary of this, so I can only assume that is what he will do, since that is what ue has always done.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

You are obviously being disingenuous but putting that aside most of what you are claiming isn't based in fact. Interest rates certainly won't be determined by the next PM. I would bet Carney is more likely to get the deficit under control than Polievre. While Carney just announced he will have a pretty robust climate change spending plan I think elsewhere he will show restraint and is likely to also have some tax tweaks. Meanwhile Polievre lately is saying he won't cut transfers to the provinces or individiuals which basically means he will basically amount to token cuts to foreign aid and grants to Lesbian alliance for the preservation of the three toed sloth that make great headlines but don't add up to anything. He will squeeze the public service but without program cuts there isn't a lot of savings to be had with that. Meanwhile he will probably have some kind of populist tax cut like a cut to the GST. Finally, I bet he is more likely to give in to business pressure to restore immigration that will be incoming as soon as later this year.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You are obviously being disingenuous but putting that aside most of what you are claiming isn't based in fact. Interest rates certainly won't be determined by the next PM. I would bet Carney is more likely to get the deficit under control than Polievre. While Carney just announced he will have a pretty robust climate change spending plan I think elsewhere he will show restraint and is likely to also have some tax tweaks. Meanwhile Polievre lately is saying he won't cut transfers to the provinces or individiuals which basically means he will basically amount to token cuts to foreign aid and grants to Lesbian alliance for the preservation of the three toed sloth that make great headlines but don't add up to anything. He will squeeze the public service but without program cuts there isn't a lot of savings to be had with that. Meanwhile he will probably have some kind of populist tax cut like a cut to the GST. Finally, I bet he is more likely to give in to business pressure to restore immigration that will be incoming as soon as later this year.

What makes you think there won’t be program cuts?

[LuluBobo]

Mulroney is generally disliked in the rearview mirror, but he had a charm and two big majorities. Of all the Tory PMs we've had, it's either him or Diefenbaker for second best.

Turner didn't exactly have an easy job in 1984. Except for the 9-month situation in 1979, we had a Liberal government since 1963. 3 PMs (Pearson-Trudeau-Turner) over 21 years is enough for people looking for a change. And Mulroney had immensely more charisma than Turner (or Poilievre or Carney) had. Reagan had a smashing victory in the US, Thatcher in the UK, and the free-market was in.

Poilievre is popular, but doesn't have the broad charisma of a Trudeau or Mulroney or Trudeau 2. Trump is widely hated in Canada. The wide belief in the free trade is still there, but now we're faced with an American president firmly opposed to free trade.

Turner was in an impossible position. Carney is in a much more favourable position.

The odds on favourite should still be seen as PP, but Carney's calm governance in the style of Paul Martin is in a good spot to contend.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

What makes you think there won’t be program cuts?

Well I think there still will be with a Con majority especially a large one but Poilievre has been walking back cuts that impact "individuals". If we get into a closer election I wouldn't be surprised if he promises to keep a lot. CCB and OAS certainly but also the childcare program and maybe even dental care. There are a ton of climate change and DEI entrepreneurship programs he can cut and Trump cutting IRA will save money automatically here but it feels more and more we will get a 2011 Conservative rather than huge cuts he had previously telegraphed. I had previously been convinced he was going to bring in an absolute revolution on spending.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You are obviously being disingenuous but putting that aside most of what you are claiming isn't based in fact. Interest rates certainly won't be determined by the next PM. I would bet Carney is more likely to get the deficit under control than Polievre. While Carney just announced he will have a pretty robust climate change spending plan I think elsewhere he will show restraint and is likely to also have some tax tweaks. Meanwhile Polievre lately is saying he won't cut transfers to the provinces or individiuals which basically means he will basically amount to token cuts to foreign aid and grants to Lesbian alliance for the preservation of the three toed sloth that make great headlines but don't add up to anything. He will squeeze the public service but without program cuts there isn't a lot of savings to be had with that. Meanwhile he will probably have some kind of populist tax cut like a cut to the GST. Finally, I bet he is more likely to give in to business pressure to restore immigration that will be incoming as soon as later this year.

When in his a career has Carney ever supported spending restraint and balanced budgets? Were you not around the past 5 years where Carney was Trudeau's personal advisor on how to run the economy?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Build.It

When in his a career has Carney ever supported spending restraint and balanced budgets? Were you not around the past 5 years where Carney was Trudeau's personal advisor on how to run the economy?

The idea that Trudeau listened to anyone seems dubious. Carney arrived back in Canada and mildly criticized the 2021 budget as not being growth oriented enough. We know it's Trudeau that wanted to focus on social care more than growth.

In terms of climate he absolutely has a long history of calling for investment/spending. Removing the carbon tax for a US style industrial policy is very much in the cards.