Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

https://www.ctvnews.ca/atlantic/video/2025/01/23/wayne-long-rethinking-decision-to-not-re-offer/
I wonder what is Wayne thinking. Saint John is getting split in two and the Liberals have awful polling numbers. He won't win in Saint John-St. Croix and i highly doubt he would win in Saint John—Kennebecasis. Is it blind optimism or what. And if he does run which riding does he run in.

He won't run against Williamson, who is the incumbent for the whole riding excluding the Saint John West portion. That would be suicidal. The CPC won it under the new lines 47-28 in 2019 and 2021.

Could Long win Saint John-Kennebecasis? Probably has a better shot than any other Liberal. SJ West voted 40-34 Long in 2019 and swung bigly towards him in 2021 vs. Norton's halfhearted campaign: 46-33.

In the rest of the city, Long improved by even more. Won it 38-33 in 2019, and 46-31 in 2021. Same with Rothesay: Long LOST it to Weston, 37-41, and won it 47-38 against Norton.

This was kind of a perfect storm. In addition to Long's personal popularity, there was a temporarily-insurgent PPC and a moribund/confused CPC under O'Toole, Norton's non-campaign, and a total Green collapse.

Quispamsis is the only new turf in SJ-Kennebecasis; Rob Moore won it 43-31 in 2019 and 46-32 in 2021.

Big question is, who do the Conservatives run? The PC bench got wiped or retired, for two different if equally good reasons, Glen Savoie has his hands full as interim leader, and SJ council is full of duds. Someone from a KV government? A businessperson of note?

[sailor734]

I haven't heard anything more about the supposed CPC parachute candidate. With the potential for an election in as little as 3-4 months you would think they'd be getting their candidates organized.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I haven't heard anything more about the supposed CPC parachute candidate. With the potential for an election in as little as 3-4 months you would think they'd be getting their candidates organized.

All parties are currently working through their nominations. CPC have the most so far, with 218 confirmed nominees. Compare that to 136 for the Liberals, and just 81 for the NDP.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I haven't heard anything more about the supposed CPC parachute candidate. With the potential for an election in as little as 3-4 months you would think they'd be getting their candidates organized.

Wikipedia has some candidates listed, and apparently Melissa Young-Gray is the parachute candidate (https://tj.news/new-brunswick/crowded-tory-race-heats-up-with-so-called-parachute-candidate). I don't think she really counts as one-- grew up near Minto, lives on the Peninsula, briefly worked in Ontario government from 2022-24. She seems to run a small workforce consulting business and seems to have had several government and adjacent gigs in previous years.

The others are

• Lisa Keenan (Brenton Keane lawyer, former federal PC/CPC riding boss, associated with Elsie, was the Port board chair until very recently). I can only presume she has lived here forever, based on the resume.
• James Robertson (JTF2 commander, Afghanistan veteran, DP World manager at the Port). Resides in Quispamsis. Unclear where he's from but he previously lived in Vancouver after retiring from the military. His website doesn't trumpet deep SJ connections and his LinkedIn has him living in Vancouver until April 2022.
• Jamie Vienneau (Irving paper mill truck driver for the last 20 years). Like Keenan, clearly a long-term resident.

[MonctonRad]

James Robertson (JTF2 commander, Afghanistan veteran, DP World manager at the Port). Resides in Quispamsis. Unclear where he's from but he previously lived in Vancouver after retiring from the military. His website doesn't trumpet deep SJ connections and his LinkedIn has him living in Vancouver until April 2022.

Future defence minister.........

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Wikipedia has some candidates listed, and apparently Melissa Young-Gray is the parachute candidate (https://tj.news/new-brunswick/crowded-tory-race-heats-up-with-so-called-parachute-candidate). I don't think she really counts as one-- grew up near Minto, lives on the Peninsula, briefly worked in Ontario government from 2022-24. She seems to run a small workforce consulting business and seems to have had several government and adjacent gigs in previous years.

The others are

• Lisa Keenan (Brenton Keane lawyer, former federal PC/CPC riding boss, associated with Elsie, was the Port board chair until very recently). I can only presume she has lived here forever, based on the resume.
• James Robertson (JTF2 commander, Afghanistan veteran, DP World manager at the Port). Resides in Quispamsis. Unclear where he's from but he previously lived in Vancouver after retiring from the military. His website doesn't trumpet deep SJ connections and his LinkedIn has him living in Vancouver until April 2022.
• Jamie Vienneau (Irving paper mill truck driver for the last 20 years). Like Keenan, clearly a long-term resident.

Interesting that Jeff Steeves sent an email to everyone he had been canvasing support from announcing his withdrawal last summer. He said at the time party HQ had told him basically that the candidate had been selected and not to bother.

Keenan would seem to be a well connected Conservative so it's interesting to see her name being talked about. Maybe it isn't a done deal?

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Saw this on Twitter from a Global News reporter in Ottawa. "Liberal MP Wayne Long, one of the first and loudest voices to call on PMJT to quit, had said he wasn't going to run in the next election, but he's now changed his mind and plans to run in Saint John—Rothesay for the Liberal Party".
So Wayne must be running in SJ-Kennebecasis. I don't see him winning unless the next Liberal leader reverses their polling numbers but props to Wayne for giving it a go.

[sailor734]

I’m not convinced Long has much of a chance but I suspect he would outperform just about anybody else the Liberals might run.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Considering how much her campaign tried to distance herself from the Trudeau led Liberal party, I think it’s safe to assume Premier Holt won’t be endorsing Chrystia Freeland. However, I think she may very well endorse Mark Carney.

I’m sure Mark Carney would very much like to get the support of New Brunswick’s popular Liberal Premier. Moreover, I think he could probably learn a thing or two from her campaign, especially on the tactics they used to distance themselves from the unpopularity of the “Trudeau Liberals”.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I’m not convinced Long has much of a chance but I suspect he would outperform just about anybody else the Liberals might run.

Quispamsis and Rothesay both went red in the provincial election, which pretty much no one predicted.

With Carney as the leader, it may actually be possible for Wayne Long to win a fourth term.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I'll respectfully disagree with that. What happened provincally in places like Quispamsis and Rothesay likely won't happen federally. Provincally it was the PC brand that was toxic to voters, federally it's the Liberal brand that is toxic. While Wayne has a much better chance than a generic Liberal I can't see him winning unless the Cons pick a bad candidate, or the Libs have a polling comeback for the ages.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

While Wayne has a much better chance than a generic Liberal I can't see him winning unless the Cons pick a bad candidate

What's Faytene up to these days???

[Monctoncore]

This is more a federal comment.. but I think that the federal election if it is announced sooner and is over the winter or even spring. This election will become more than just the Trudeau/gas tax election. It’s going to be who can stand up to Trump, who won’t back down when the enviable happens.. tariffs and as we saw yesterday with Colombia.. the willingness to also cut visas and put financial and bank sanctions on government officials because they won’t go along with what Trump wants. The next election is going to be big.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

What's Faytene up to these days???

Now she would be the candidate who would lose the riding. Wonder if she runs for PC leader whenever their leadership election happens?

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

What's Faytene up to these days???

Make no mistake we have not seen the last of her. She is still heavily heavily engaged but her social media has switched its focus on federal politics, and she even went to see the trump inauguration.

She's sharing posts of the likes of Derek Sloan and a trump supporting pastor that's running a memecoin grift.

There is a certain hubris that's occurred with trumps win by a some conservatives in Canada. Despite a relatively close election they have a belief there is a massive shift coming across the world to the right. Perhaps, but this type of hubris could lead them to believe they have the go ahead for a far more dramatic right shift than what voters would want.

Canadian voters are not nearly as ideological as American ones. A lot can change in a few months in politics. There's no doubt Canadians were done with Trudeau, but with serious issues like the ongoing threat of tariffs people may begin to see how cartoonishly unserious Pierre Poillevre is as a politician. When he no longer has Trudeau as an easy target he needs to present solutions. His smugness towards progressives is not going to help us with tariffs. His snarky remarks towards journalists aren't going to help with our sovereignty. He will have a tough needle to thread when a portion of his base supports trump regardless of if everything he does hurts Canada.

In conclusion, I wouldn't doubt for a second we see a federal MP run attempt by Faytene. Itd be a gift for the liberals.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Interesting. The Carney bump appears to be having quite an impact on Atlantic Canada.

[sailor734]

Atlantic Canada is traditionally Liberal so it makes sense it would be the first area to start drifting back to the Liberals absent the Trudeau factor.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Atlantic Canada is traditionally Liberal so it makes sense it would be the first area to start drifting back to the Liberals absent the Trudeau factor.

Which is foolish. Amazing how dumb some are for believing in the Trudeau scapegoat. The whole Liberal party is currently trash. Replacing the lead man isn't going to do anything. Carney did a trash job as well when he was in government in Great Britain and they didn't have much good to say about him.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Carney did a trash job as well when he was in government in Great Britain and they didn't have much good to say about him.

You’re big on British politics, eh? Going to blame him for Brexit too?

Carney was hired by Conservative PM Stephen Harper to lead the bank of Canada, and did such a good job, that he was hired by Conservative PM David Cameron of the UK to become the first non-Briton to head the Bank of England.

I think it’s a pretty clear choice between Poilievre and Carney.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

You’re big on British politics, eh? Going to blame him for Brexit too?

Carney was hired by Conservative PM Stephen Harper to lead the bank of Canada, and did such a good job, that he was hired by Conservative PM David Cameron of the UK to become the first non-Briton to head the Bank of England.

I think it’s a pretty clear choice between Poilievre and Carney.

Makes no difference about your sarcasm in an attempt to discredit what I said.

Truth is, that Carney being there is still the same old corrupt Liberal Party, no thanks! Most Canadians I'm sure will see it the same. Things are still unaffordable and a mess and the Liberals aren't helping. We've had enough!