The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread - Page 84

sailor734 · #**1661** Posted **Jan 9, 2025, 5:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agreed.

Also, it was only the last quarter which showed a net exodus in terms of interprovincial migration. A single quarter does not make a trend.

Still, I suspect that NB's recent growth spurt has come to an end, especially with the crackdown on international migration. A slow growth scenario is now upon us, and, I suspect it will be some time before we see one million New Brunswickers.

Probably not a bad thing. At least a pause will give healthcare, education and housing capacity a chance to catch up.

KnoxfordGuy · #**1662** Posted **Jan 9, 2025, 5:20 PM**

Journalists don't understand demographics, the understand headline grabbing.

MonctonRad · #**1663** Posted **Jan 15, 2025, 3:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nclsteba

CMA's population estimates will be released tomorrow :

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal2-eng.htm

I'm so excited!!!

MonctonRad · #**1664** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 2:01 PM**

CMA/CA Population Estimates July 1st, 2024

Halifax NS (CMA), - 530,167 (+12,186 from last year)
St. John's, NL (CMA) - 239,316 (+6,617 from last year)
Moncton, NB (CMA) - 188,036 (+9,437 from last year)
Saint John, NB (CMA) - 142,433 (+3,338 from last year)
Fredericton, NB (CMA) - 122,500 (+3,700 from last year)
Sydney (CBRM), NS (CA) - 112,699 (+3,428 from last year)
Charlottetown, PE (CA) - 93,877 (+3,349 from last year)

Takeaways:

1) - given a constant growth rate, Moncton is likely around 192,500 right now. By this time next year we could be over 200,000.
2) - Saint John at present is growing nearly as quickly as Fredericton. Good news for SJ. After decades of senescence, they have been experiencing consistent growth recently.
3) - The growth rate in CBRM is really surprising. I ascribe this to Dave Dingwall and CBU. Once the foreign student pipeline is shut down, things will revert to normal.
4) - The growth rate of Charlottetown appears to be decelerating.
5) - assuming constant growth rates into the future, Moncton may surpass St. John's as Atlantic Canada's second city by 2038 or so.

PoscStudent · #**1665** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 2:27 PM**

St. John’s has grown more in the last 4 years than it did between 2010-2020. It’ll never interesting to see if that level of growth can be somewhat maintained, especially with the changes to immigration.

new kid in town · #**1666** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 2:35 PM**

Do we have growth rates (and comparisons to previous years) available?

KnoxfordGuy · #**1667** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 2:36 PM**

City populations July 1st, 2024

Halifax 502,753
St. John's 126,154
CBRM 107,391
Moncton 97,523
Saint John 78,165
Fredericton 72,700
Charlottetown 46,607

Link to all the data:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250116/dq250116b-cansim-eng.htm

sailor734 · #**1668** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 3:09 PM**

Interesting to note Halifax is an outlier in that it's "city" population and CMA are virtually the same. NB 's 3 cities are only about 60% or so of their CMA. Seems like amalgamation is still a touchy subject in NB.

KnoxfordGuy · #**1669** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 3:14 PM**

I wish we had an updated urban area population of Halifax. Probably close to 400,000.

Nashe · #**1670** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 4:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailor734

Interesting to note Halifax is an outlier in that it's "city" population and CMA are virtually the same. NB 's 3 cities are only about 60% or so of their CMA. Seems like amalgamation is still a touchy subject in NB.

The HRM is geographically... huge. 2x Moncton, I think. (5k vs 2.5k)

MonctonRad · #**1671** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 4:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Do we have growth rates (and comparisons to previous years) available?

Moncton had a 5.3% growth rate from last year.

Halifax growth rate was 2.4%

Of course, since Halifax is nearly 3x the size of Moncton, they still grew more in absolute terms.

MonctonGoldenTri · #**1672** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 4:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

City populations July 1st, 2024

Halifax 502,753
St. John's 126,154
CBRM 107,391
Moncton 97,523
Saint John 78,165
Fredericton 72,700
Charlottetown 46,607

Link to all the data:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250116/dq250116b-cansim-eng.htm

Sweet! based on the growth rate Moncton should have passed 100k by now!

Taeolas · #**1673** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 4:44 PM**

Looks like Charlottetown CMA is only a couple of years from cracking 100k. Nice growth there.

KnoxfordGuy · #**1674** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 4:56 PM**

Should see charlottetown as an official cma in the 2031 census.

MonctonRad · #**1675** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 5:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Should see charlottetown as an official cma in the 2031 census.

More likely 2036 I think. They may cross the 100k threshold by 2031, but StatsCan likes to make these changes during the subsequent census period.

new kid in town · #**1676** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 5:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moncton had a 5.3% growth rate from last year.

Halifax growth rate was 2.4%

Of course, since Halifax is nearly 3x the size of Moncton, they still grew more in absolute terms.

Thanks!

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Sweet! based on the growth rate Moncton should have passed 100k by now!

Exciting news! I hope we continue to grow the next few years. Maybe not as explosive as the last 3 years, but a steady influx would be nice.

Echoing my sentiment in the Moncton thread that UNB needs to have a stronger presence here now more than ever.

MonctonRad · #**1677** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 6:27 PM**

Apparently last year Moncton was the second fastest growing CMA in Canada (after Calgary).

EnvisionSaintJohn · #**1678** Posted **Jan 16, 2025, 11:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailor734

Interesting to note Halifax is an outlier in that it's "city" population and CMA are virtually the same. NB 's 3 cities are only about 60% or so of their CMA. Seems like amalgamation is still a touchy subject in NB.

Let’s see if amalgamation is still a touchy subject after the Holt government delivers on tax reform. One the “touchiest” reasons why the outlying communities don’t want amalgamation has to do with tax rates, especially here in the Saint John region. Fixing the tax system could really help bring about the “winning conditions” needed to bring on amalgamation in Greater Saint John, Greater Fredericton, and Greater Moncton.

If the Holt government delivers on tax reform, municipalities could tax industry at a more fair rate, and lower tax rates on residential properties. In the wake of successful tax reform, an amalgamated Saint John Regional Municipality could have a lower tax rate than Rothesay has today, which is currently the municipality with the lowest tax rate in the region.

Still think if amalgamation is to happen for the Saint John Region, a new name should be picked, while the constituent communities retain their names, just like is the case in the HRM.

sailor734 · #**1679** Posted **Jan 17, 2025, 1:35 PM**

Not sure where to post this as it is common to all locations in the region. It is about statistics so I guess here is as good as any. Mods, feel free to move this if it belongs somewhere else.

I've always wondered why projects seem to take so long and construction progress seems to advance quite slowly. I saw this report online from last September and it seems productivity has been declining in the construction sector throughout Canada for some time.

https://economics.td.com/ca-productivity...0the,a%20reshaping%20of%20the%20industry.

Any thoughts on why we perform so poorly in building things quickly and efficiently?

Nashe · #**1680** Posted **Jan 17, 2025, 1:43 PM**

I'll admit that I've always wonder how one measures "productivity"... in simplest terms it sounds like "number of widgets per $ input" but in a service-heavy industry, I'm not sure how that translates. How does one calculate that construction has declining productivity? It costs more $ and people to build the same size of building? Are the monetary inputs adjusted for inflation?