Statistics Canada Reports II

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Bruised would be a better description. Immigration continues and will continue to continue.

Immigration will continue, but the loss of consensus won't be mending anytime soon. Support from a large subset of Canadians is probably lost for at least a generation, not the least because the housing crisis has not been resolved, and unemployment rates continue to trend up.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Immigration will continue, but the loss of consensus won't be mending anytime soon. Support from a large subset of Canadians is probably lost for at least a generation, not the least because the housing crisis has not been resolved, and unemployment rates continue to trend up.

One man's large subset is another man's minority.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

One man's large subset is another man's minority.

It only takes a sizable minority permanently emboldened to stir ethnic strife to ruin the current iteration of Anglo-Canadian multiculturalism.

[P'tit Renard]

The stench from Sean Fraser's odious reign in Immigration doing Katie Telford's bidding will linger for years to come:

Two million people are expected to leave the country in Canada's immigration reset. What if they don't?

https://financialpost.com/feature/canada-immigration-reset-cause-chaos-experts

[saucylito]

Originally Posted by Zeej

New provincial estimates out today and a big corresponding correction to the population clock to account for slower growth.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

The big 4 provinces:

ON: 16.17M (+47k)
QC: 9.1M (+44k)
BC: 5.71M (+21k)
AB: 4.93M (+43k)

Really looks like Ontario saw a big correction to its population downward as it has previously been growing by over 100k per quarter, now down to under 50k.

Looking at the numbers, I added the percent change to each province's population change over the last quarter, to get a better idea of Canada's
exceptional population growth in each region.

Alberta really does remind me of Texas in many ways and probably for the exact same reasons in both.

Provincial population estimates and recent growth in the third quarter of 2024.

Newfoundland 545,880 +0.11%
Prince Edward Isle 179,301 +0.42%
Nova Scotia 1,079,676 +0.30%
New Brunswick 857,381 +0.35%
Quebec 9,100,249 +0.48%
Ontario 16,171,802 +0.29%
Manitoba 1,499,981 +0.38%
Saskatchewan 1,246,691 +0.55%
Alberta 4,931,601 +0.88%
British Columbia 5,719,594 +0.37%
The Yukon 46,948 +0.52%
NorthWest Territories 44,731 +0.46%
Nunavut 41,258 +0.24%

[craner]

Originally Posted by Zeej

New provincial estimates out today and a big corresponding correction to the population clock to account for slower growth.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

The big 4 provinces:

ON: 16.17M (+47k)
QC: 9.1M (+44k)
BC: 5.71M (+21k)
AB: 4.93M (+43k)

Really looks like Ontario saw a big correction to its population downward as it has previously been growing by over 100k per quarter, now down to under 50k.

Looks like NB grew by a couple more thousand than NS from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.

[GreaterMontréal]

From the Institut de la statistique du Québec, municipalities , July 1st 2024

1- Montreal : 1,948,747 or +53 k ; 5,339/km²
2- Quebec City : 594,443 or +20 k
3- Laval : 458,981 or +8 k
4- Gatineau : 302,616 or +4 k
5- Longueuil : 267,524 or +6 k

Total for Montreal's central portion (Metro network), 10 arrondissements + Westmount, about 1,190,734 : 7,886/km² , 151km² (an area slightly larger than the city of Vancouver),

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by GreaterMontréal

From the Institut de la statistique du Québec, municipalities , July 1st 2024

1- Montreal : 1,948,747 or +53 k ; 5,339/km²
2- Quebec City : 594,443 or +20 k
3- Laval : 458,981 or +8 k
4- Gatineau : 302,616 or +4 k
5- Longueuil : 267,524 or +6 k

Total for Montreal's central portion (Metro network), 10 arrondissements + Westmount, about 1,190,734 : 7,886/km² , 151km² (an area slightly larger than the city of Vancouver),

In 2023, Wikipedia has the City of Montreal (population 2,124,865) at 431.50 km2. The 5,339 km2 figure you posted surely refers to the CMA. Secondly, I would have thought the Ottawa area would be a strong draw but Gatineau lags population growth rates seen in Montreal, Quebec City, Laval, and Longueuil.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by isaidso

In 2023, Wikipedia has the City of Montreal (population 2,124,865) at 431.50 km2. The 5,339 km2 figure you posted surely refers to the CMA. Secondly, I would have thought the Ottawa area would be a strong draw but Gatineau lags population growth rates seen in Montreal, Quebec City, Laval, and Longueuil.

It's for the Island of Montreal (482km²). The city of Montreal is 365km² land, and 1,948M. The Wiki link gives false info. The CMA should be at 4,6M and 4,258km² land. The 5,339/km2 figure is the city's density.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by craner

Looks like NB grew by a couple more thousand than NS from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.

The worm has turned. Halifax should watch out. Moncton will soon be hot on your ass!

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The worm has turned. Halifax should watch out. Moncton will soon be hot on your ass!

It's actually kind of extraordinary for New Brunswick--it had the third-highest per-capita permanent resident intake in the country in 2024, up to and including October, most recent month with published IRCC data. Nova Scotia did well too, regardless: its population growth slowed substantially, but that was almost entirely due to a reduction in non-permanent migration. From January to October it took in nearly 13,000 permanent residents, which is an annual record, with two months of data still to go. But New Brunswick still received more, not only proportionally but in raw numbers, with more than 14,000. That's the first time that's ever happened, I believe. And it's largely a Moncton story. Despite comprising about 20 per cent of the provincial population, the Moncton CMA took in almost half of NB's new permanent residents.

In terms of permanent resident intake per capita from Jan-Oct, the provinces stack up like this, with new permanent residents as percentage of total population:

PEI: 2.00
SK: 1.66
NB: 1.63
MB: 1.46
NS: 1.19
AB: 1.14
ON: 1.08
BC: 0.95
NL: 0.91
QC: 0.55

[harls]

Originally Posted by isaidso

..but Gatineau lags population growth rates seen in Montreal, Quebec City, Laval, and Longueuil.

4% is fine by me.

Maybe make it a little lower.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The worm has turned. Halifax should watch out. Moncton will soon be hot on your ass!

I'm hearing lots of excitement around Halifax about the growth of Moncton and our region and the development of our (smaller) equivalent of a Montreal/Toronto corridor. And thanks for noticing our 'hot ass'. We've been working on it.

[MonctonRad]

It's hard not to notice Halifax's ass. Regionally speaking, it's quite large, but, perhaps a little hairy.........

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Nova Scotia did well too, regardless: its population growth slowed substantially, but that was almost entirely due to a reduction in non-permanent migration.

I wonder if there will be some outmigration due to nonpermanent migrants leaving. A place like CBU/Sydney would be hit hard like this and in general the places that got the most nonpermanent residents will see the greatest outflows if that policy really is reversed.

I also wonder if Moncton has more laissez-faire housing development policies than Halifax. Despite having tons of land and being one of the most developable metro areas (no mountains, little to no valuable farmland), HRM council has been hesitant to allow greenfield development for decades now. There are lots of infill projects but it's harder for those to hit the same volume of development. To me it looks like Halifax council wanted to go down a path similar to Victoria or Vancouver, but with even more artificial barriers to development. On the other hand, the province seems to be forcing some greenfield growth areas on the periphery, and there are other counties like Hants that are developing. In the end though I believe housing prices are higher for the same house on the edge of Halifax than on the edge of Moncton, and there isn't really any great reason for that. It makes sense that an area like the peninsula will be expensive but not Sackville or Cole Harbour.

I agree with the idea that there's a Halifax-Moncton corridor and it makes sense to try to capitalize on growth around that region. Then beyond that there's southern NB, central NS, and PEI.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by someone123

I wonder if there will be some outmigration due to nonpermanent migrants leaving. A place like CBU/Sydney would be hit hard like this and in general the places that got the most nonpermanent residents will see the greatest outflows if that policy really is reversed.

I think that’s what’s happening now. There are thousands fewer international students this year due to the international student cap introduced by the feds, and the inflow of non-permanent residents dropped from nearly 10,000 in Q3 2023 to 6,000 in Q3 2024. Outflow increased from 3,800 to 5,800.

Permanent immigration to NS, however, was higher in 2024 than in 2023–two record years in a row—but the huge headline growth numbers came way down due to the plunge in net non-permanent numbers.

This is probably good, I think, though it means some pain in the labour market and with certain post-secondary institutions (especially Cape Breton University, which allowed itself to turn into an international student degree mill). The immigration cutbacks are paring back the non-permanent churn without reducing new permanent residents. It’s unfortunate, though, that we’ve had to go through this unsustainable spike followed by a huge and disruptive drop.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

It’s unfortunate, though, that we’ve had to go through this unsustainable spike followed by a huge and disruptive drop.

That's an important point. Big rapid spikes are very disruptive but so are big rapid drops. What planners, governments, institutions, and industry want are steady predictable trajectories. The danger is a knee jerk reaction to the last 2-3 years resulting in a massive swing too far in the other direction. Canada needs gradual, considered reductions, and cool heads in Ottawa and the provincial capitals.

[GreaterMontréal]

If we take Montreal and its 2 largest suburbs (Laval - Longueuil), it adds up to about 3,115 M, the built-up area around 860km² give or take 20km². Density 3,600/km² .

[dahusbandofbath]

Originally Posted by isaidso

That's an important point. Big rapid spikes are very disruptive but so are big rapid drops. What planners, governments, institutions, and industry want are steady predictable trajectories. The danger is a knee jerk reaction to the last 2-3 years resulting in a massive swing too far in the other direction. Canada needs gradual, considered reductions, and cool heads in Ottawa and the provincial capitals.

No way to just like your post, so, "hear, hear!"

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by isaidso

That's an important point. Big rapid spikes are very disruptive but so are big rapid drops. What planners, governments, institutions, and industry want are steady predictable trajectories. The danger is a knee jerk reaction to the last 2-3 years resulting in a massive swing too far in the other direction. Canada needs gradual, considered reductions, and cool heads in Ottawa and the provincial capitals.

No we need a massive fall off to equalize and quickly return us to long term averages. For sure there will also be negative consequences but we have to take our medicine.