Western Expresso

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WinCitySparky

lol relax, bump the PST up 2% and problem solved. Go back to bed.

How wrong you are. Last year's PST earnings were $2.6B from 7% PST.

To offset the equalization payments via PST alone, PST would have to increase BY 12.4%. Not TO 12.4%. Increase BY 12.4%. Meaning a 19.4% PST rate. And that's just the equalization. To include last year's deficit the PST would need to increase another 5.4%. So you'd be looking at a 25% PST with a 5% GST.

Or 30% PST+GST on every purchase.

Yes bud. It's surely a nothingburger. Stick to wires please.

Zalf nice catch on the map. Social post. I did fact check the number though, it's legit per CTV.

[FactaNV]

We seriously need to attract more industry to the province. Heavy industry and green tech should be priorities due to our energy and proximity to the North American market via rail.

There are also some revenue streams that could be explored such as rejigging the formula on mineral extraction, especially with critical minerals like lithium or gold.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by zalf

lol this isn't on you, bodaggin and it doesn't affect your point, but that map has misplaced PEI

It's the new province of Anticosti Island.

[WinCitySparky]

Sensationalist nonsense

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

We seriously need to attract more industry to the province. Heavy industry and green tech should be priorities due to our energy and proximity to the North American market via rail.

There are also some revenue streams that could be explored such as rejigging the formula on mineral extraction, especially with critical minerals like lithium or gold.

caugh lynn lake area caugh
plane road and rail access


gold cobalt lythium nickel coper magnies zink urainium

[OTA in Winnipeg]

Not sure where else to put this. These days it seems that you are kicked off pretty quickly after you sign in. It's annoying.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

We seriously need to attract more industry to the province. Heavy industry and green tech should be priorities due to our energy and proximity to the North American market via rail.

There are also some revenue streams that could be explored such as rejigging the formula on mineral extraction, especially with critical minerals like lithium or gold.

Spot on. The economy needs to grow.

Manitoba GDP is around $75B. Tax base around $22B. So roughly a 30% tax to GDP ratio. So to make up the $7B shortfall without increasing taxes, GDP needs to increase about $23B. That's on a purely productive basis, not including population and service expansion (roads, health, social, etc). But it's a good starting target.

Minerals are a start. I don't like Manitoba's Mining Tax Structure. It's progressive, on profits only. Which disincentivizes expansion. It also creates $0 tax revenue on break even operations, which are easy to achieve via accounting. A miner could pull billions of dollars of minerals and MB gov earn $0 from it directly. That's bad. Mining tax should be a straight royalty IMO. Off topline revenue. Not profit.

-Hydro is leaving at least $5B/yr on the table, topline. They're absolutely asleep during the biggest electrification transition in history.
-Data centers will be big. Which rely on sleepy hydro. We've got the cooling in Manitoba. In fact the data center waste heat can be used to heat downtown or indoor greenhouses. This expands our indoor ag and food security, 2 birds, 1 stone.
-The health sector is also asleep. Building a huge HCW supply and training center could make the province a place for health tourism. Instead of a place patients flee.
-Manufacturing and tech is always key for GDP. Raw commodities are low revenue.

What else are we missing? What else is in the pipeline? Big potential stuff, $5B+ annually.

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Spot on. The economy needs to grow.

Manitoba GDP is around $75B. Tax base around $22B. So roughly a 30% tax to GDP ratio. So to make up the $7B shortfall without increasing taxes, GDP needs to increase about $23B. That's on a purely productive basis, not including population and service expansion (roads, health, social, etc). But it's a good starting target.

Minerals are a start. I don't like Manitoba's Mining Tax Structure. It's progressive, on profits only. Which disincentivizes expansion. It also creates $0 tax revenue on break even operations, which are easy to achieve via accounting. A miner could pull billions of dollars of minerals and MB gov earn $0 from it directly. That's bad. Mining tax should be a straight royalty IMO. Off topline revenue. Not profit.

-Hydro is leaving at least $5B/yr on the table, topline. They're absolutely asleep during the biggest electrification transition in history.
-Data centers will be big. Which rely on sleepy hydro. We've got the cooling in Manitoba. In fact the data center waste heat can be used to heat downtown or indoor greenhouses. This expands our indoor ag and food security, 2 birds, 1 stone.
-The health sector is also asleep. Building a huge HCW supply and training center could make the province a place for health tourism. Instead of a place patients flee.
-Manufacturing and tech is always key for GDP. Raw commodities are low revenue.

What else are we missing? What else is in the pipeline? Big potential stuff, $5B+ annually.

The new rail park is going to be a game changer in my opinion. With some good planning and some luck, I think the government can attract some big players. I truly believe we're going to have a rail renaissance here. Maybe we'll get lucky and the Donald will try to force the Panama Canal and then put business will be booming. Imagine an entire vertical economy running there, from extraction, refinement, value-adding and shipping to global markets. Makes one salivate with the potential.

[1ajs]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Spot on. The economy needs to grow.

Manitoba GDP is around $75B. Tax base around $22B. So roughly a 30% tax to GDP ratio. So to make up the $7B shortfall without increasing taxes, GDP needs to increase about $23B. That's on a purely productive basis, not including population and service expansion (roads, health, social, etc). But it's a good starting target.

Minerals are a start. I don't like Manitoba's Mining Tax Structure. It's progressive, on profits only. Which disincentivizes expansion. It also creates $0 tax revenue on break even operations, which are easy to achieve via accounting. A miner could pull billions of dollars of minerals and MB gov earn $0 from it directly. That's bad. Mining tax should be a straight royalty IMO. Off topline revenue. Not profit.

-Hydro is leaving at least $5B/yr on the table, topline. They're absolutely asleep during the biggest electrification transition in history.
-Data centers will be big. Which rely on sleepy hydro. We've got the cooling in Manitoba. In fact the data center waste heat can be used to heat downtown or indoor greenhouses. This expands our indoor ag and food security, 2 birds, 1 stone.
-The health sector is also asleep. Building a huge HCW supply and training center could make the province a place for health tourism. Instead of a place patients flee.
-Manufacturing and tech is always key for GDP. Raw commodities are low revenue.

What else are we missing? What else is in the pipeline? Big potential stuff, $5B+ annually.

A huge underdeloped potential is our first nations people who have been neglected for generations thats our future

[bomberjet]

Did the deficit include the payouts for the Healthcare contract? I think there was also another union thing that thr PCs neglected to resolve.

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Did the deficit include the payouts for the Healthcare contract? I think there was also another union thing that thr PCs neglected to resolve.

Are you talking the 4yr pay hike? Not sure. MB Health's financials are extremely opaque. They don't even publish a balance sheet that I can find. I need to parse through what they do publish deeper to gleam some kind of understanding of that $9B line item.

The $1B of increased health spending will definitely be part of the $2B deficit though. Latest 2023 vs 2024 expenses are here. Note the $2B of interest payments. For those who say "the debt doesn't matter". Almost all of 7% PST currently gets dumped into debt servicing. Think of that on every purchase.

Every Manitoban should have this income statement memorized IMO.

[ColdRain&Snow]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Are you talking the 4yr pay hike? Not sure. MB Health's financials are extremely opaque. They don't even publish a balance sheet that I can find. I need to parse through what they do publish deeper to gleam some kind of understanding of that $9B line item.

The $1B of increased health spending will definitely be part of the $2B deficit though. Latest 2023 vs 2024 expenses are here. Note the $2B of interest payments. For those who say "the debt doesn't matter". Almost all of 7% PST currently gets dumped into debt servicing. Think of that on every purchase.

Every Manitoban should have this income statement memorized IMO.

Very informative, thanks for posting. What's the difference between the "Restated" budget and the "Actual" budget? Also, could you post a link to where you found this information?

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by ColdRain&Snow

Very informative, thanks for posting. What's the difference between the "Restated" budget and the "Actual" budget? Also, could you post a link to where you found this information?

Latest annual report here. Balance Sheet/Income Statement on Page 63-65.

https://www.gov.mb.ca/asset_library/en/p.../AnnualReportPublicAccounts2023-2024.pdf

Actual/Restated: Pretty sure one is actual expenses vs budgeted. Think there's some nuance. I usually just ignore column 1, and use Column 2 vs 3 to compare Year-Over-Year 2023 vs 2024. Use the higher number for current year. Govs never over budget and come in low. They always come in higher than they say (except election years).

[ColdRain&Snow]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Are you talking the 4yr pay hike? Not sure. MB Health's financials are extremely opaque. They don't even publish a balance sheet that I can find. I need to parse through what they do publish deeper to gleam some kind of understanding of that $9B line item.

The $1B of increased health spending will definitely be part of the $2B deficit though. Latest 2023 vs 2024 expenses are here. Note the $2B of interest payments. For those who say "the debt doesn't matter". Almost all of 7% PST currently gets dumped into debt servicing. Think of that on every purchase.

Every Manitoban should have this income statement memorized IMO.

Also, if I'm doing my math right, that's $1443 of debt servicing per person in Manitoba. That's a ton of money per person. A family of 4 would be paying $5772/year just towards the provincial debt.

Here's the math I did:
Total Debt Servicing in 2024: $2,156,000,000 ($2.156 billion)
Population of Manitoba in 2024: 1,494,301 (source: https://www.manitoba.ca/mbs/publications/mbs101_weekly_20241001_w38.pdf)
Debt Per Person: $2,156,000,000 / 1,494,301 = $1143

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by ColdRain&Snow

Also, if I'm doing my math right, that's $1443 of debt servicing per person in Manitoba.

Correct! And there's only about 1 million taxpayers in MB. So it's $2,156 per taxpayer.

"But the debt doesn't matter guys!" /sarc

Basically the GST pays the INTEREST on the FEDERAL Debt. And the PST pays the INTEREST on the PROVINCIAL Debt. Roughly. So that 12% sales tax on almost every purchase? It all vanishes to debt servicing, thanks to overspending govs (of all colors). Those sales taxes don't buy a doctor, school, tank, or road. Interest only. Never mind paying down the debt principal, which will never happen.

[WinCitySparky]

Tired old trope

[bodaggin]

Originally Posted by WinCitySparky

Tired old trope

Textbook electrician. You don't even know what a balance sheet is. Stay out of it. Grown-ups are speaking.

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by WinCitySparky

Tired old trope

"Obviously these numbers mean we have to drastically cut health care!!"

-courtesy the MB PCs, and everyone who takes the Winnipeg Sun seriously.

[WinCitySparky]

Originally Posted by bodaggin

Textbook electrician. You don't even know what a balance sheet is. Stay out of it. Grown-ups are speaking.

Ow ow please stop Mr Conservative Shill! You’re hurting me!

Seriously though go get a job in the government and fix it, shrillposting is for bums.

[Mr Tall Forehead]

Originally Posted by 1ajs

A huge underdeloped potential is our first nations people who have been neglected for generations thats our future

100% agree. Indigenous Manitobans are the province’s youngest and fastest growing cohort. Huge potential here to massively grow the provincial economy.