Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Hecate

We’re talking about Quebec, not manitoba… keep up. Show me exactly where I said manitoba wasn’t a beneficiary of equalization? It’s just funny watching Quebec separatists completely ignore that pretty big injection of money whenever they talk about independence. And honestly man. Try to let go of at least a little bit of the hate you have for me. It’s freaking Christmas. Maybe take a few days.

Merry Christmas.

No one ignores it. The idea is that either we’d be slightly worst off financially but that’s no big deal when the tradeoff is our own sovereignty, or some think we wouldn’t even be that worse off because while equalization would stop, Quebec-funded waste at the Federal level would also stop. The sovereignty optimists even think the latter might be bigger than the former, which would leave us in a better financial position if we separated, but in reality as long as it’s not too far from being a wash, the loss of equalization wouldn’t be an issue.

[lio45]

Here’s a sample of a recent article about the topic. As you can see for yourself, equalization is front and center in the discussion.
https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2020401/budget-an-1-parti-quebecois

[lio45]

Quebec pays ~$80B a year to Ottawa, and for that amount, gets services supposedly worth ~$90B/year from the Feds, the difference between the two amounts being equalization.

It’s not far-fetched to think that by keeping $80B a year in exchange for taking over Federal duties (the ones we’d want to keep — maybe we’d have a smaller military), we could make the math work.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Hecate

We’re talking about Quebec, not manitoba… keep up. Show me exactly where I said manitoba wasn’t a beneficiary of equalization? It’s just funny watching Quebec separatists completely ignore that pretty big injection of money whenever they talk about independence. And honestly man. Try to let go of at least a little bit of the hate you have for me. It’s freaking Christmas. Maybe take a few days.

Merry Christmas.

You are the one that started dissing on Quebec, without looking in the freaking mirror. Keep up.

If it is Christmas, maybe take a few days out of being so goddamned angry all the time.

[Acajack]

Equalization exists for any province that “qualifies”. It does not exist especially for Quebec.

I also don’t see why Quebec or any other province that plays by the rules of the Canadian system (which include equalization) should be told to STFU and bend over and take it, just because of this fact.

Receiving equalization or the Canada Health Transfer or anything else does not preclude a province from seeking a better deal within the federation that meets its self-defined needs, or even an arrangement outside the federation if that is what its people want.

In any event equalization is not money that falls out of the sky. It comes from taxpayers and that includes you and me. Ottawa is not some benevolent entity whose accounts have no relationship to your pocketbook and mine.

It’s still my money and yours we are talking about.

[Acajack]

BTW it is not that hard to do the math on equalization.

Take the amount Quebec receives annually and then divide it by the Quebec population and you will see it is about the price of a large Tim Hortons coffee per day for every person in Quebec.

And this is assuming a straight loss of the equalization amount by Quebec, and does not factor in savings of duplication of services and agencies between Ottawa and Quebec, or the fact that about 22% of the equalization pot of money is collected in Quebec anyway.

In any event the debate over Quebec independence is not related to stuff like equalization.

There are far better arguments for Quebec staying in Canada than the dumbass statement that “Alberta money keeps you guys afloat and you’d be dead without it”.

[New Brisavoine]

Québec has reached 9.1 million inhabitants according to the latest Statcan stats. This is absolutely insane! +373,000 people in the space of 2 years (+2.11% per year). This is a growth rate on par with Nigeria. No European country, not even Luxembourg or the boomiest Swiss cantons, grows at that level.

PS: There is going to be some serious decline of GDP per capita across Canada this year.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

There are far better arguments for Quebec staying in Canada than the dumbass statement that “Alberta money keeps you guys afloat and you’d be dead without it”.

Yeah, but the Anglo-Saxons love these sorts of arguments I've noticed. For us the equivalent is "if it wasn't for us you'd be speaking German now". It must be something in their education, or their school system, I don't know. You never hear Francophones reasoning like that.

Likewise, a year or two ago, I briefly watched some Anglophone channel on our cable (can't remember which), and there was an Anglo-Canadian businessman in the program (guy in his 70s) who said very sternly "there is no free lunch" (it was a debate about the economy I think). It kind of struck me, because you'd never hear anyone here speak like that. It's very "Anglo-Saxon".

[lio45]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Likewise, a year or two ago, I briefly watched some Anglophone channel on our cable (can't remember which), and there was an Anglo-Canadian businessman in the program (guy in his 70s) who said very sternly "there is no free lunch" (it was a debate about the economy I think). It kind of struck me, because you'd never hear anyone here speak like that. It's very "Anglo-Saxon".

Maybe it’s due to the fact we’re more anglicized than you guys (or at least, differently anglicized, on va magasiner ici, on ne va pas “faire du shopping”, etc.) but it’s something we do hear and say here, “y’a rien de gratuit”, “y’a quelqu’un quelque part qui paie pour ça!”, etc.

[lio45]

(The general idea “There’s no free lunch” is a truism that transcends cultures and eras.)

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

(The general idea “There’s no free lunch” is a truism that transcends cultures and eras.)

Yes but he's not wrong France has yet to internalize it as fact.[

Originally Posted by Acajack

BTW it is not that hard to do the math on equalization.

Take the amount Quebec receives annually and then divide it by the Quebec population and you will see it is about the price of a large Tim Hortons coffee per day for every person in Quebec.

And this is assuming a straight loss of the equalization amount by Quebec, and does not factor in savings of duplication of services and agencies between Ottawa and Quebec, or the fact that about 22% of the equalization pot of money is collected in Quebec anyway.

In any event the debate over Quebec independence is not related to stuff like equalization.

There are far better arguments for Quebec staying in Canada than the dumbass statement that “Alberta money keeps you guys afloat and you’d be dead without it”.

So only a free coffee not a free lunch for every man woman and child per day? At $14 Billion it is 4-5 times Hydro Quebec's profit? More than Quebec pays in GST in a year. It's far from inconsequential. While some of that is returned Quebec taxes the transfer in other areas is also substantial. Quebec pays less taxes of almost all kinds and gets more than average in most benefits.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by lio45

Maybe it’s due to the fact we’re more anglicized than you guys (or at least, differently anglicized, on va magasiner ici, on ne va pas “faire du shopping”, etc.)

"Faire du shopping" was never the most frequent term used here to say "go shopping", and it's now slightly old-fashioned (it sounds very 2000s). The most frequent term here has always been "faire les/des courses".

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Québec has reached 9.1 million inhabitants according to the latest Statcan stats. This is absolutely insane! +373,000 people in the space of 2 years (+2.11% per year). This is a growth rate on par with Nigeria. No European country, not even Luxembourg or the boomiest Swiss cantons, grows at that level.

PS: There is going to be some serious decline of GDP per capita across Canada this year.

More data.

The Montréal metro area gained 129,000 inhabitants in just ONE YEAR (i.e. +2.96%). This is absolutely INSANE. I've been following the growth of European metro areas for years, and no European metro area has ever grown at that speed. The fastest growing European metro areas (Toulouse, Oslo, Stockholm) grow at about +1.5% to +1.8% per year in their best years. Madrid in its crazy years during the unsustainable boom of the 2000s grew at slightly above 2% per year, but nearly 3% per year is absolutely insane, on par with African metro areas.

In absolute terms, it's also enormous. 129,000 inhabitants in one year is double the growth of the Paris metro area (13.2 million people), but Montréal has only a third of Paris's population, and considerably less infrastructure. There is no Western society that can sustain this level of growth over a certain number of years without collapsing.

And it's not just Montréal. The Québec City metro area grew by 22,300 people (+2.86% in one year). 22,300 people in one year is what the Toulouse metro area gains in its fastest years (such as 2021), but the Toulouse metro area has 1.5 million inhabitants, whereas Québec City has only 880,000 inhabitants. It's challenging enough in Toulouse in terms of infrastructure and housing (which never seem to keep up with high growth), so I can't even imagine in Québec City...

The Sherbrooke metro area grew by +2.29% in one year. The Trois Rivières metro area by +2.01%. Oddly the metro area with the slowest growth was Gatineau, with "only" +1.67% (which would be one of the fastest growing metro areas in Europe).

It's hard to understand what your authorities are trying to achieve there...

PS: At current rates, the Montréal metro area will pass 5 million inhabitants in the beginning of 2027. At this rate, it would also pass again Abidjan within 10 years (given that Montréal is now growing faster than Abidjan).

[Kilgore Trout]

Where are you getting your data from?

[New Brisavoine]

Statcan website.

[Kilgore Trout]

Okay, but I don't see any recent estimates for CMA populations...? The most recent is from May and that was for 2023. (The Montreal CMA grew by 1.02% from 2022 to 2023.) I don't think the 2023–2024 CMA estimates will be released until next May.

Most of the growth in the past two years has been from non-permanent migration and with the new restrictions on immigration from both Quebec and Canada, we won't see such high growth. In fact, the federal government is anticipating a slight decline in the overall population in both 2025 and 2026.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

The Montreal CMA grew by 1.02% from 2022 to 2023.

No, it grew by 2.96% (129,000 inhabitants) as I've mentioned.

Originally Posted by Kilgore Trout

Most of the growth in the past two years has been from non-permanent migration and with the new restrictions on immigration from both Quebec and Canada, we won't see such high growth. In fact, the federal government is anticipating a slight decline in the overall population in both 2025 and 2026.

Unlikely considering that Ottawa will still grant 395,000 permanent residencies in 2025 (only a moderate decrease compared to 500,000 granted in 2024). See here Québec authorities complaining about what they deem to be still too high federal immigration objectives in 2025 and 2026 which will reduce further the share of Québec in Canada's overall population: https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/2114742/cibles-immigration-canada-quebec

This plays right in the hands of the sovereignists by the way. The best way to deflate the pro-independence vote would be to reduce immigration close to 0.

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but he's not wrong France has yet to internalize it as fact.[




So only a free coffee not a free lunch for every man woman and child per day? At $14 Billion it is 4-5 times Hydro Quebec's profit? More than Quebec pays in GST in a year. It's far from inconsequential. While some of that is returned Quebec taxes the transfer in other areas is also substantial. Quebec pays less taxes of almost all kinds and gets more than average in most benefits.

We pay more taxes than pretty much everywhere in Canada.

[Acajack]

Viewed another way, equalization is equivalent to 3.5% of Quebec’s total GDP. Again, this is the total amount and does not take into account Ottawa-Quebec duplication or the fact that 22% is money from Quebec coming in and then coming out. If you calculate everything equalization represents qui a bit under 3% of Quebec’s GDP.

What is the difference between the Canadian and US GDP right now?


I think it is quite a bit more than 3%.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ToxiK

We pay more taxes than pretty much everywhere in Canada.

You pay less federal taxes per capita than average for all kinds of tax. Thus get a subsidy from RoC greater than the equalization payment. Alberta is a huge net contributor even without equalization.

Originally Posted by Acajack

Viewed another way, equalization is equivalent to 3.5% of Quebec’s total GDP. Again, this is the total amount and does not take into account Ottawa-Quebec duplication or the fact that 22% is money from Quebec coming in and then coming out. If you calculate everything equalization represents qui a bit under 3% of Quebec’s GDP.

What is the difference between the Canadian and US GDP right now?


I think it is quite a bit more than 3%.

As I said it's a lot more than equalization but the US system has even more of that so Quebec if part of the US would get huge benefits from being so much poorer. Medicaid funding would about as much as the federal government gives for healthcare funding for example.