Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

English levels in Paris is still quite lacking, compared to say Quebec.

Yeah, but we're not in North America, and it's the same or worse in the rest of Europe. You'd be shocked by the level of English in Germany for example, to say nothing of Italy and Spain. Ditto for Japan and HK. In any case, in this day and age, people don't need to speak perfect, native English, but workable English. And very soon AI will take care of it anyway and there will be no need to speak English anymore.

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

it's going to be a very dark period for the UK in the upcoming decade or so.

I agree with that. Unfortunately it's also going to be a dark period for France and Germany, for different reasons (Germany because they've killed their economy with bad decisions, and France, which should have had all the cards in its hands now, given how Germany and the UK are down, is stupidly destroying itself with nasty far-left politics and paralysis).

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Perhaps the Brits have a false sense of security at the moment.

Oh they don't, trust me. Their press is all doom and gloom these days. It's not impossible that their far-right could for the first time win lots of seats in the next general election (they are financed by Musk now).

The countries doing good at the moment are oddly Spain and Italy (in Spain I don't think it will last, but Italy is impressive, they've become the 4th largest exporter in the world this year, ahead of Japan! ).

Long term I still think France has the best prospects (location, weather, demography, French flair, chic, elite schools, etc), but oh boy the French do love to shoot themselves in the foot for sure and hinder their potential. Don't know when we'll finally have a president who will unleash our incredible potential (it hasn't happened since Pompidou, so it's quite some time now, longer than my life). But the French are like that, they won't choose the right solution before they have tried all the bad solutions first.

PS: I don't know whether our Québécois cousins are the same.

PPS: All is not lost though. If you're curious, only this weekend:
This: https://x.com/guillaume_ggc/status/1870161075813134745
And this: https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/au-f...ntot-en-service-au-sud-de-paris-20241222
I've also used for the first time the brand new stations of the RER E to La Défense this week, and it was... IMPRESSIVE! Like giant underground cathedrals with walls covered with shiny wavy metal sheets like a spaceship.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

And Quebec sovereignists don’t want hard borders of course. It’s never really been part of their wish list.

So you will let Canada decide your trade policy? Inspect goods coming into Canada and you'll leave your side open and people load their cars with cheap cheese for example as we remove supply management?

It's a 1980s fantasy.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

So you will let Canada decide your trade policy? Inspect goods coming into Canada and you'll leave your side open and people load their cars with cheap cheese for example as we remove supply management?

It's a 1980s fantasy.

I guess it depends on your definition of a hard border. There are as many unique border arrangements as there are borders in the world.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I guess it depends on your definition of a hard border. There are as many unique border arrangements as there are borders in the world.

Yes. But Brexit promised some technological miracle as well. We will need customs checks. Schengen works because there are no limits on movement of goods and people because they have all the same rules and regulations. If Quebec gives us unilateral control over this we will naturally favor our industries. We will of course not give them veto power like exists in the EU just as the EU would not give the UK such power.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes. But Brexit promised some technological miracle as well. We will need customs checks. Schengen works because there are no limits on movement of goods and people because they have all the same rules and regulations. If Quebec gives us unilateral control over this we will naturally favor our industries. We will of course not give them veto power like exists in the EU just as the EU would not give the UK such power.

Without presuming anything about a Quebec and Canada-sans-Quebec relationship post-independence, I do see that many small EU countries have done quite well in open trade and borders set-ups with much larger partners like France and Germany.

The size disparities between Quebec and the ROC are far from being as great so the power relationship would not be that bad, especially with some cards in Quebec's hand like the St Lawrence Seaway.

[Acajack]

It is the Canadian version of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

Any attempt at analysing or understanding from an objective viewpoint labels you as one of the Bad Guys.

The only acceptable take is "BAD BAD BAD!", preferably said as loudly as possible.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Speaking of which, I have never told people what they should vote in an independence referendum. I'm not from Québec, so that's not for me to tell people there how they should vote. I'm only interested in the "whats" and "ifs" of the independence issue. But I've often noticed (both here and at SSC) that for the Anglo-Canadian forumers, a mere explanation of the sovereignists' reasoning, or just going through the 'pros' of an independent Québec (instead of just going through the 'cons') is immediately equated with "you support the independence movement, you want to 'destroy' my country".

PS: You were too young to vote in 1995, but how did you parents vote in that referendum, if that's not too classified an information?

[Acajack]

.....

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Without presuming anything about a Quebec and Canada-sans-Quebec relationship post-independence, I do see that many small EU countries have done quite well in open trade and borders set-ups with much larger partners like France and Germany.

The size disparities between Quebec and the ROC are far from being as great so the power relationship would not be that bad, especially with some cards in Quebec's hand like the St Lawrence Seaway.

You mean Monaco Lichtenstein. Those are historical micro states with some kind of corrupt grandfather agreement to be tax havens. No going to work for Quebec.

Norway's model maybe. They do pay the EU a huge sum. They are independently wealthy but maybe some future world where electricity is hugely profitable. It's actually surprising how economically inconsequential Hydro Quebec's exports to the US are. It's under $2 Billion. About a week's worth of oil exports. Ontario and Manitoba combined actually export about the same in dollar value. (Though they pay a lot more so profit margin is much much lower)

The Seaway is what as a card? Montreal benefits from taking a big chunk of Atlantic container freight. They can stop that if they want and let Halifax and Newark take those goods but that doesn't seem like good business. They won't be doing any blockades or it will end very badly.

The UK was a much bigger market for Europeans than Quebec is for Canada. Is there any industry in RoC where Quebec is even 25% of their market?

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You mean Monaco Lichtenstein. Those are historical micro states with some kind of corrupt grandfather agreement to be tax havens.

Actually Monaco is the best thing France has ever devised. It's a tax haven, EXCEPT for the French. That was General de Gaulle's condition to keep it alive (de Gaulle blockaded Monaco in 1962, same as the US did with Cuba, if you don't know that story, about Monaco I mean). So in a nutshell, foreign residents of Monaco do not pay any income tax (since Monaco doesn't have an income tax), which generates all sorts of tax evasion schemes which benefit France (because Monaco is small, so all that money gets invested and spent on the French Riviera), BUT this does not apply to French citizens: French citizens who reside in Monaco keep being submitted to the French income tax. It's brilliant really.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The UK was a much bigger market for Europeans than Quebec is for Canada.

That's not true at all. UK was rather peripheral for the EU. It was not even France's main foreign trade partner. UK was #1 trade partner only for the Republic of Ireland.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You mean Monaco Lichtenstein. Those are historical micro states with some kind of corrupt grandfather agreement to be tax havens. No going to work for Quebec.

I had larger countries with several million people and diverse economies in mind. Like Austria and Czechia.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The UK was a much bigger market for Europeans than Quebec is for Canada. Is there any industry in RoC where Quebec is even 25% of their market?

I would estimate that any national Canadian corporation based in Ontario (which is home to most of them) would have 25% or more of its business in Quebec.

More than half the stuff in my house probably came from Ontario or transited through Ontario.

Every box of cereal or bottle of ketchup or bar of soap in Quebec came from Ontario.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's not true at all. UK was rather peripheral for the EU. It was not even France's main foreign trade partner. UK was #1 trade partner only for the Republic of Ireland.

They were at top five trading partner for many members.
I don't know if we have any idea how much we sell to Quebec as I doubt it is tracked. But Ontario exported more vehicles to the US than the Entire Quebec Auto market which I assume Ontario has a pretty small market share of.

Originally Posted by Acajack

I had larger countries with several million people and diverse economies in mind. Like Austria and Czechia.

They are in the single market. It's only the Swiss and Norwegians who are major traders and aren't and they pay to be part of the market as if they were members. Imagine Canada proposing you still pay $2.5 Billion a year for managing Trade policy etc. and we will let you trade with us and be in our market. That's what Norway pays on a per capita basis.

[Acajack]

Are we not talking about a situation where the common open market would remain? The PQ do not have much issue with the trade relationship. The question you have raised is whether maintaining it as is would make independence moot.

Now whether it could maintained intact post-independence is unclear. But that is another type of discussion.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I don't know if we have any idea how much we sell to Quebec as I doubt it is tracked. But Ontario exported more vehicles to the US than the Entire Quebec Auto market which I assume Ontario has a pretty small market share of.

Without a doubt Québec is the #1 trading partner of the ROC. That's in the very nature of being a single country. Trade is not just trade in goods by the way, it's also in services. Service trade between Québec and ROC totally eclipses service trade between Canada and the US.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

They are in the single market. It's only the Swiss and Norwegians who are major traders and aren't and they pay to be part of the market as if they were members. Imagine Canada proposing you still pay $2.5 Billion a year for managing Trade policy etc. and we will let you trade with us and be in our market. That's what Norway pays on a per capita basis.

Norway is to the EU (population-wise and economy-wise) what Prince Edward Island is to Canada. What you describe is what would happen if PEI seceded. Obviously they'd be a mere rule taker after independence, and would have to agree to whatever Canada would decide. Québec is a totally different situation, it's considerably larger, and in the middle of Canada, separating the country in two parts.

[New Brisavoine]

Just to fully understand the magnitude of this: Québec vis-à-vis rump Canada would be in the same position as a country of 127 million inhabitants vis-à-vis the EU, and a country of 127 million inhabitants located on the Rhine and separating the EU in two parts. Obviously the EU could not impose its rules on this country. Things would have to be agreed by both parties on equal terms.

[Acajack]

Generally speaking it's a classic rule of businesss that it is almost always better to keep the customers you already have than write them off and try to find new ones.

I wonder where Ontario would instantly find a new market of 9 million people it hasn't tapped into yet (two thirds of Ontario itself), and how it will win them over. Quickly.

[Acajack]

Quebec would be the 11th biggest US state by population

But sure maybe Ontario would halt all trade with an independent Quebec, and trade way more with Colorado and Kansas 3000 km away.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quebec would be the 11th biggest US state by population

If you had joined the US in the 1780s as they offered you back then, you'd have been the 10th biggest US state (out of 18 states including Québec). It's crazy that you're still the 11th biggest US state now despite the fact they have 100 times more inhabitants than in the 1780s and 50 states.

PS: Since 1790, Québec has passed in population 5 of those 9 states (namely Virginia, Massachusetts, Maryland, South Carolina, and Connecticut). Very soon you should pass New Jersey too. So that will leave only New York State, Pennsylvania, and oddly North Carolina as still more populated than Québec.