Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[ToxiK]

Originally Posted by lio45

I’d go the George Carlin route: not voting, because I don’t care enough either way and at least that way, I can’t be blamed for the results, whatever they are.

You dont vote, you cant be credited for any positive but you can be blame for the negative because you had the power to stop it and didn't. It is the worst of both world. You dont vote, you dont get to complain because you let it happened.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

The land border is a problem for Canada, not for Quebec.

Quebec itself is a coherent one-piece entity with ocean access. We don’t need anyone.

In the event of sovereignty, I don’t think Canada will want to play hardball, Quebec would just cozy up to the EU or Yanks (they like our resources and clean energy) while cutting off the eastern four of the nine provinces from the western five ones.

A hard border between Quebec and the RoC would probably destroy the rest of the country too.

You confuse what is meant by a hard border. It is not a blockade. Certainly if Quebec is blocking through traffic from the East Coast to Ontario things have gone well off the rails though. Anyway it's a minor detour via the US.

A sticky border would be needed as the UK discovered because otherwise you need to take all the regulations and taxes of the larger partner.

The deals with the EU and the US would be instantly void. As we see with the UK who are trying to resign agreements they had before.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You confuse what is meant by a hard border. It is not a blockade. Certainly if Quebec is blocking through traffic from the East Coast to Ontario things have gone well off the rails though. Anyway it's a minor detour via the US.

A sticky border would be needed as the UK discovered because otherwise you need to take all the regulations and taxes of the larger partner.

The deals with the EU and the US would be instantly void. As we see with the UK who are trying to resign agreements they had before.

Highways would be fine but you’d need to build some new rail lines.

And hope that the US is not still MAGA Trumpy at that time.

The best bet is still to play nice with the Frenchies, I’d say.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Well if we compare from the Brexit referendum in 2016, then the compounded real GDP growth rate in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 has been:
- UK: +11.7%
- Eurozone: +12.7%
- Canada: +16.1%

And if we compare from the actual Brexit date in 2020, then the compounded real GDP growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 has been:
- UK: +4.32%
- Eurozone: +3.57%
- Canada: +6.51%

So the predicted Armageddon didn't take place. The UK has done slightly worse than the Eurozone since the Brexit referendum, but oddly that was before Brexit actually took place. Since Brexit actually took place, they've done slightly better than the Eurozone.

The general view here is Brexit was largely neutral, because it was overshadowed by much larger phenomenons: Covid-19 and the European energy crisis with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Of course the Remainers at the FT will argue that the UK is considerably lower now than what it would have been if the curves from before 2016 had been prolonged, but simply prolonging curves makes me very skeptical. The UK economic growth was unsustainable already before 2016, relying as it did on cheap low-productivity immigration.

For a long time I assumed Brexit was a disaster for the UK then I looked at the real numbers and it comes out about even relative to its EU peer nations.

Some will say growth opportunities were missed but that is impossible to measure.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

And hope that the US is not still MAGA Trumpy at that time.

The best bet is still to play nice with the Frenchies, I’d say.

Exactly. Seems clear to me that an independent Quebec can more easily live without reciprocity of freedom of movement of goods and people, than the country made up of the remaining nine provinces can, since Quebec is physically cutting that country in two, but not the other way around.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. Seems clear to me that an independent Quebec can more easily live without reciprocity of freedom of movement of goods and people, than the country made up of the remaining nine provinces can, since Quebec is physically cutting that country in two, but not the other way around.

An independent Québec could sign its own free trade deal with the US and trade with them directly across the common border on the 45th parallel without needing anything from the ROC.

It could also do the same with Europe or any country in the world by using the St Lawrence.

[Acajack]

I do not think an independent Quebec would automatically be the land of milk and honey but it is insane how in the ROC everyone think they would have Québec over a barrel economically in every single way.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

Exactly. Seems clear to me that an independent Quebec can more easily live without reciprocity of freedom of movement of goods and people, than the country made up of the remaining nine provinces can, since Quebec is physically cutting that country in two, but not the other way around.

Yeah the UK is between Europe and the small market of Ireland. That was not remotely the case. Transiting is TIR and unless someone it's a full trade war and beyond not an issue. Even Russia sends stuff through Europe the their cut off appendage and hopefully things don't get that bad.

Again freedom of movement and goods doesn't mean what you think it does. Having document checks at the Quebec Ontario border doesn't cut of the Maritimes though for sure it would add complications. There will be economic damage to both Canada but Canada would have a larger market and maintain access to the US as well as Europe, Japan, UK Mexico, etc. Quebec might sign a quick agreement with someone like China but otherwise wouldn't like the terms offered by the existing partners.

[kwoldtimer]

As always when this thread turns to "that" subject, so many assumptions. If and when the day comes, people will realize they had no clue.

[Loco101]

Again, I have yet to hear any Quebecer in politics suggest that hard borders and restricted movement of people and goods would be better.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I do not think an independent Quebec would automatically be the land of milk and honey but it is insane how in the ROC everyone think they would have Québec over a barrel economically in every single way.

Yeah, I've observed that several times in this thread.

Regarding the comparison with Brexit and being a rule-taker, one major difference is Québec and rump Canada are much closer in population and economic heft than UK and rump EU. So if they established a common market, it would be more a common market of equals with rules decided by both parties. Think of the Mercosur for instance.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by lio45

That said, I’m open to letting New Brisavoine convince me to bother casting a “Yes” vote

Shouldn't that be a "Oui" vote rather?

Speaking of which, I have never told people what they should vote in an independence referendum. I'm not from Québec, so that's not for me to tell people there how they should vote. I'm only interested in the "whats" and "ifs" of the independence issue. But I've often noticed (both here and at SSC) that for the Anglo-Canadian forumers, a mere explanation of the sovereignists' reasoning, or just going through the 'pros' of an independent Québec (instead of just going through the 'cons') is immediately equated with "you support the independence movement, you want to 'destroy' my country".

PS: You were too young to vote in 1995, but how did you parents vote in that referendum, if that's not too classified an information?

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

For a long time I assumed Brexit was a disaster for the UK then I looked at the real numbers and it comes out about even relative to its EU peer nations.

Some will say growth opportunities were missed but that is impossible to measure.

Though we'd have to view it with a couple caveats. First, the UK Tories were using the same playbook as Trudeau, by juicing up immigration (over a million post COVID), jacking up international student numbers since 2020, and finding every way to juice up the housing bubble. There isn't any continental European country that has access to the same levers as UK, Canada or Australia. It makes the topline GDP growth look pretty (which TruAnon folks hard sell every day about a prosperous Canada), but the country ends up with all the problems associated with this immigration ponzi scheme, like a collapsing NHS, ethnic tensions across the board, exploding homeless population, recent 2024 riots.

Another is that London's global financial centre status was never going to be severely impacted by Brexit, given that there's no English speaking metropolis on the continent that would prove to be a serious threat to London. If anything the City can now benefit from more deregulation and less oversight from Brussels, and the City can continue to enjoy its outsized role in the UK economy.

The downside of it is that the gap between uber-affluent London and the rest of the UK continues to grow, and it's pretty much those regions who voted Brexit that are seeing as a swath of their local industries decimated, especially those that are trade based rather than service based.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Acajack

An independent Québec could sign its own free trade deal with the US and trade with them directly across the common border on the 45th parallel without needing anything from the ROC.

It could also do the same with Europe or any country in the world by using the St Lawrence.

You could become the 51st state!

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Another is that London's global financial centre status was never going to be severely impacted by Brexit, given that there's no English speaking metropolis on the continent that would prove to be a serious threat to London. If anything the City can now benefit from more deregulation and less oversight from Brussels, and the City can continue to enjoy its outsized role in the UK economy.

The London financial center has suffered more from Brexit than the rest of the British economy. Although they are loath to admit it, and although of course there was no collapse, the City of London has suffered. The European Banking Authority was relocated from London to Paris, they also lost thousands of financial jobs (most of which relocated, not to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, or Dublin, as was commonly thought before Brexit, but to... Paris!). They also lost some stock valuation (this went more to Amsterdam than to Paris). They also cannot deregulate, because that would cut their last remaining access to the European market.

And it's only the beginning, because the EU so far hasn't totally enforced the mandatory relocations that it could have enforced (such as clearing services in particular, which I hope we will finally do, i.e. make it mandatory to clear euro trades in the UE, which will mean Paris essentially, and not in London anymore).

It's not a collapse, but a slow trickle, so nothing dramatic that could make headlines, but the lobbying association of the Paris financial center published some figures earlier this year showing that 4 years after Brexit Paris has benefited much much more from Brexit in terms of financial service relocations than was expected (it's in the thousands of high-value jobs relocated to Paris now, in particular by US banks, not just a few hundreds anymore).

If we didn't have the big far-left that we have in France, we could push the Paris financial center much much more. There's never been a better time than now, since we have the legal upper hand with Brexit, and the Brits are not there anymore to block us at the European Council.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

The London financial center has suffered more from Brexit than the rest of the British economy. Although they are loath to admit it, and although of course there was no collapse, the City of London has suffered. The European Banking Authority was relocated from London to Paris, they also lost thousands of financial jobs (most of which relocated, not to Amsterdam, Frankfurt, or Dublin, as was commonly thought before Brexit, but to... Paris!). They also lost some stock valuation (this went more to Amsterdam than to Paris). They also cannot deregulate, because that would cut their last remaining access to the European market.

And it's only the beginning, because the EU so far hasn't totally enforced the mandatory relocations that it could have enforced (such as clearing services in particular, which I hope we will finally do, i.e. make it mandatory to clear euro trades in the UE, which will mean Paris essentially, and not in London anymore).

It's not a collapse, but a slow trickle, so nothing dramatic that could make headlines, but the lobbying association of the Paris financial center published some figures earlier this year showing that 4 years after Brexit Paris has benefited much much more from Brexit in terms of financial service relocations than was expected (it's in the thousands of high-value jobs relocated to Paris now, in particular by US banks, not just a few hundreds anymore).

If we didn't have the big far-left that we have in France, we could push the Paris financial center much much more. There's never been a better time than now, since we have the legal upper hand with Brexit, and the Brits are not there anymore to block us at the European Council.

It's more a tradeoff if anything. I'm pretty plugged into the opportunities that's available in the City, and it's definitely nowhere near the worse case scenario that was forecasted by remainers. I'm also in the loop of MNCs based in London, and most of the jobs that were planned to be shipped to the continent post Brexit never happened. The City also isn't just finance/PE jobs, but also the legal, management consulting, tech ecosystems attached to it. Yes, the heavily EU regulated positions have moved to the continent primarily to Paris and Amsterdam, but compared to what was being forecasted it has been much more benign.

Unless Paris adopts English as a primary language of commerce, I don't see Paris taking over London's GFC status anytime soon.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

It's more a tradeoff if anything. I'm pretty plugged into the opportunities that's available in the City, and it's definitely nowhere near the worse case scenario that was forecasted by remainers.

Nowhere near the worst-case scenario also means it's nowhere near the best-case scenario.

And it's a slow but steady process, which is very European, slow in the beginning, but steady once started. So their loss is only going to increase. It's like the screw being slowly tightened. The EU juggernaut knows how to do this pretty well.

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Unless Paris adopts English as a primary language of commerce, I don't see Paris taking over London's GFC status anytime soon.

You are more than 20 years behind the curve. Jesus! What do you imagine? People wearing beret and sipping wine at work? English is already the working language in many businesses in Paris. In what language do you think those US banks operate in Paris? Financial jobs in Paris are either unilingual English or bilingual French-English.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

You are more than 20 years behind the curve. Jesus! What do you imagine? People wearing beret and sipping wine at work? English is already the working language in many businesses in Paris. In what language do you think those US banks operate in Paris? Financial jobs in Paris are either unilingual English or bilingual French-English.

Tell that to my colleagues in our Paris office who still has to work in French on a daily basis. English levels in Paris is still quite lacking, compared to say Quebec.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Nowhere near the worst-case scenario also means it's nowhere near the best-case scenario.

And it's a slow but steady process, which is very European, slow in the beginning, but steady once started. So their loss is only going to increase. It's like the screw being slowly tightened. The EU juggernaut knows how to do this pretty well.

If that's indeed the case (which I suspect is true as well given the speed of EU bureaucracy, and the City itself is a bit delusional that it'll eventually become Singapore by the Thames), it's going to be a very dark period for the UK in the upcoming decade or so. Perhaps the Brits have a false sense of security at the moment.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Again, I have yet to hear any Quebecer in politics suggest that hard borders and restricted movement of people and goods would be better.

And Quebec sovereignists don’t want hard borders of course. It’s never really been part of their wish list.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

You could become the 51st state!

We wouldn’t need to in order to have free trade with them, plus they wouldn’t want us as a state.

An interesting scenario for this was proposed by Overosc1 in another thread a day or two ago.