Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[ivegotaname]

Do any of you think Susan Holt will serve her 4 years in office as premier of NB ? Her approval is at a wopping 52 % and falling

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

Do any of you think Susan Holt will serve her 4 years in office as premier of NB ? Her approval is at a wopping 52 % and falling

Approval ratings don't mean much. It will be high right now as she was just elected and over time they always drop. When I say they don't mean much, I mean they only matter if the approval rating of the opponent is higher, and even then...

Often we see several very low approval rated politicians going head to head and it's the best of the worst that takes the cake. Additional the approval ratings can swing violently in the lead up to an election. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5381529 Has a nice graph with the violent swings in approval ratings during the elections (federal). Also approval rating don't always lead to more votes, as seen by Singh's massive up-swing in approval but not a correlated vote improvement.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

Do any of you think Susan Holt will serve her 4 years in office as premier of NB ? Her approval is at a wopping 52 % and falling

Ford has the lowest approval rating amongst premiers and he'd eak out a win if an election were called. Not to mention Holt has a strong majority so why wouldn't she serve her full 4 years?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by drewber

Ford has the lowest approval rating amongst premiers and he'd eak out a win if an election were called. Not to mention Holt has a strong majority so why wouldn't she serve her full 4 years?

I could see Susan Holt being groomed for federal politics, potentially even the federal Liberal Party leadership.

- She is bilingual
- She is a woman
- She is young and telegenic.
- She is articulate, well briefed and seems sincere.
- She connects well with people
- She is media savvy

And, most importantly, she is not connected in any way with the hated and reviled JT Liberal cabal.

The main question would be whether or not she runs immediately to succeed JT after he loses the election next year, or, she waits 5-6 years and runs to replace the lame duck Liberal leader who will succeed JT. I think the latter more likely, but, one never knows.

She is only 47 years old. She has time............

[ivegotaname]

I can see Justin running for the PQ party leadership after he is voted out of PM office by the majority

[ivegotaname]

Susan had alot of ideas changed course as that might look alot like Gallant promises back before higgs was selected

[lirette]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

Do any of you think Susan Holt will serve her 4 years in office as premier of NB ? Her approval is at a wopping 52 % and falling

Doug Ford's approval rating is at 34% in the same poll..do you think he's going to resign?

[Taeolas]

She's got a strong majority, so she's going to be our Premier for the long haul; a party won't replace them unless something MUCH worse than "Low Approval ratings" happens.

Hell, she's got a 52% approval rating right now? Many premiers would LOVE to have that 'problem', especially with how divisive politics is nowadays. She's very much still in her honeymoon period, cleaning up the messes HIggs left behind and figuring out how to do her own goals now that reality is setting in. (Which yes, will mean some broken promises).

After her mandate? It's still early, but yeah, I could see some Federal goals eventually. The Liberals are going to have at least one cycle in the wilds coming up, so her NB mandate will be ending just before PP's first mandate would be ending. And she's been doing decently at separating herself from Justin.

We'll see in a few years if she's using NB to vault to Ottawa or if she'll be content to stay put. I suspect if she stays, she'll have an excellent chance of getting a second mandate next election, though possibly with just a minority government at that point. She may decide to do 2 NB terms and see what the Federal scene looks like then before deciding further.

[sailor734]

I don't see Holt going anywhere until at least a couple of years after the next election ( unless she pulls a complete Gallant she is unlikely to lose next time). Any move to the Federal stage would obviously be dependent on the Federal party's leadership status at that time.

As to a 52% rating, that is actually considered pretty strong in today's polarized political environment.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I don't see Holt going anywhere until at least a couple of years after the next election ( unless she pulls a complete Gallant she is unlikely to lose next time). Any move to the Federal stage would obviously be dependent on the Federal party's leadership status at that time.

As to a 52% rating, that is actually considered pretty strong in today's polarized political environment.

What I've noticed is that the national press has taken notice of her, and her opinion is being sought of a number of high profile issues, such as our current trade dispute with the US. Ian Hanomansing even flew to NB to do a sit down interview with her. This has tremendously boosted her profile and I imagine the federal Liberal back room is taking notice.

As I said, she is only 47, and has 8-10 years to create a provincial legacy and develop a national stature that could put her on track for PM. I don't think she is going anywhere for 5-6 years.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by drewber

Ford has the lowest approval rating amongst premiers and he'd eak out a win if an election were called. Not to mention Holt has a strong majority so why wouldn't she serve her full 4 years?

Ford would more than eke out a win. It would be a landslide. 338 Canada is showing the Conservatives winning 91/124 seats in Queen's Park; the NDP would be the official opposition at 18 and Liberals at 12. These numbers are fairly close to the federal seats in Ontario with current polls showing the Conservatives projected to win 97 seats in Ontario; 15 for the Liberals; 9 NDP and 1 Green.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

What I've noticed is that the national press has taken notice of her, and her opinion is being sought of a number of high profile issues, such as our current trade dispute with the US. Ian Hanomansing even flew to NB to do a sit down interview with her. This has tremendously boosted her profile and I imagine the federal Liberal back room is taking notice.

As I said, she is only 47, and has 8-10 years to create a provincial legacy and develop a national stature that could put her on track for PM. I don't think she is going anywhere for 5-6 years.

Unless PP really screws the pooch I suspect the next Liberal leader to be a place holder/sacrificial lamb with the second leader following Trudeau (say around 2030) to have a shot at leading them back to power.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by ivegotaname

I can see Justin running for the PQ party leadership after he is voted out of PM office by the majority

• Video Link

Are you being sarcastic? No Trudeau would ever join the side of Quebec Sovereigntists, come on now

9 months is a long time in politics. The CPC needs to win at least 171 seats in order to shut out Trudeau completely.

Even if they don't run on it, Trudeau could remain PM with support from the NDP, BQ, and Greens. It's not very likely according to the polls at the moment, but it's also not outside the realm of possibilities. A lot will depend on how Trudeau responds to the return to Donald Trump.

A lot of middle of the road Canadian voters don't like Donald Trump, whatsoever. If PP is seen more and more like Canada's Trump, as the left is very much trying to label him as, this could seriously hurt his poll numbers come the election... and who knows what type of shenanigans Trump will get up to with Canada or with the rest of the world before next October.

The polling is very much indicating a strong CPC majority at the moment, but the polling for the US Presidential election and even the Vegas odds were projecting a Kamala Harris victory just a few months back.

The CPC could have picked a far more centrist, far more well liked leader than Pierre Poilievre. Imo, had the CPC went with Peter MacKay instead of Andrew Scheer, he'd be our PM right now and maybe be recently re-elected with a majority. O'Toole was the most centrist of all their leadership choices since like Mulroney or Joe Clark, but he was also one of the least photogenic, least charismatic, and 2021 was probably the most challenging election for the CPC to win out of 2019, 2021, and the upcoming 2025 election.

I think this election will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. Trudeau is doing himself and his party no favours by sticking around on the ticket, but he's still got some time to convince some undecided voters. If they step up and find a way to start including people older than 18+ as part of their universal dental plan, deliver on pharmacare for all, and think up some other surprise policy moves, who knows what the polling will say 6 months from now.

Personally, I think JT will fumble the ball and we see PP's CPC elected to one of the strongest majorities since the Lib's 2015 win, but like I said, a lot can happen in 9 months when we're talking about politics and the news. The Trump Presidency is a huge variable at the moment, and so far, I'd say the Return of Trump and his flagrant BS hurdled towards Canada is mostly working out in Trudeau's favour, rather than Poilievre.

Imo, the best case scenario for Canada in the next election is a strong Conservative minority similar to Harper's second minority government.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

What I've noticed is that the national press has taken notice of her, and her opinion is being sought of a number of high profile issues, such as our current trade dispute with the US. Ian Hanomansing even flew to NB to do a sit down interview with her. This has tremendously boosted her profile and I imagine the federal Liberal back room is taking notice.

As I said, she is only 47, and has 8-10 years to create a provincial legacy and develop a national stature that could put her on track for PM. I don't think she is going anywhere for 5-6 years.

It's definitely not an absurd theory, and you've covered most of the reasons why it might actually happen. I know you said you'd not vote for her party here provincially, but could you actually consider voting for a Liberal if it meant electing the first Canadian PM from New Brunswick in history?

I know you didn't think much of making a big deal out of her being the first female premier, but do I think her being one of the first premiers from the Fredericton area in a very, very long long, and debatably the first Premier in NB history to directly represent a Fredericton riding, are definitely noteworthy.

I'm going to wait and see how she reforms as premier of New Brunswick, but I'm definitely rooting for her and think it would be tremendous if she could one day become the first Canadian PM from New Brunswick... and I say Canadian PM, because we've already had someone from New Brunswick go on to become PM, he just happened to become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, not Canada.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

• Video Link

Are you being sarcastic? No Trudeau would ever join the side of Quebec Sovereigntists, come on now

9 months is a long time in politics. The CPC needs to win at least 171 seats in order to shut out Trudeau completely.

Even if they don't run on it, Trudeau could remain PM with support from the NDP, BQ, and Greens. It's not very likely according to the polls at the moment, but it's also not outside the realm of possibilities. A lot will depend on how Trudeau responds to the return to Donald Trump.

A lot of middle of the road Canadian voters don't like Donald Trump, whatsoever. If PP is seen more and more like Canada's Trump, as the left is very much trying to label him as, this could seriously hurt his poll numbers come the election... and who knows what type of shenanigans Trump will get up to with Canada or with the rest of the world before next October.

The polling is very much indicating a strong CPC majority at the moment, but the polling for the US Presidential election and even the Vegas odds were projecting a Kamala Harris victory just a few months back.

The CPC could have picked a far more centrist, far more well liked leader than Pierre Poilievre. Imo, had the CPC went with Peter MacKay instead of Andrew Scheer, he'd be our PM right now and maybe be recently re-elected with a majority. O'Toole was the most centrist of all their leadership choices since like Mulroney or Joe Clark, but he was also one of the least photogenic, least charismatic, and 2021 was probably the most challenging election for the CPC to win out of 2019, 2021, and the upcoming 2025 election.

I think this election will be a lot closer than many believe it will be. Trudeau is doing himself and his party no favours by sticking around on the ticket, but he's still got some time to convince some undecided voters. If they step up and find a way to start including people older than 18+ as part of their universal dental plan, deliver on pharmacare for all, and think up some other surprise policy moves, who knows what the polling will say 6 months from now.

Personally, I think JT will fumble the ball and we see PP's CPC elected to one of the strongest majorities since the Lib's 2015 win, but like I said, a lot can happen in 9 months when we're talking about politics and the news. The Trump Presidency is a huge variable at the moment, and so far, I'd say the Return of Trump and his flagrant BS hurdled towards Canada is mostly working out in Trudeau's favour, rather than Poilievre.

Imo, the best case scenario for Canada in the next election is a strong Conservative minority similar to Harper's second minority government.

It's cute you think Trudeau will make it to October. I expect him to resign before they resume on January 27th to allow the liberals to find a replacement before a no confidence motion can be passed.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I'm going to wait and see how she reforms as premier of New Brunswick, but I'm definitely rooting for her and think it would be tremendous if she could one day become the first Canadian PM from New Brunswick... and I say Canadian PM, because we've already had someone from New Brunswick go on to become PM, he just happened to become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, not Canada.

You're forgetting about Prime Minister William Bedford Bennett (Conservative) who led Canada during the first part of the Great Depression (not his fault). He was born and raised in Hopewell Cape at the mouth of the Petitcodiac River. They have a nice museum in Hopewell largely focussed on his life and it is a National Historic Site. He was representing a riding in Calgary when he was Prime Minister, but his formative years were all in NB.

Bennett was responsible for the CBC, the Bank of Canada and, Unemployment Insurance (because of the depression).

[NB_ExistsToo]

I see Trudeau trying to ride the train as long as possible and it's most definitely what all other non-CPC MP's want too. All parties know conservatives are pretty much on easy street if the election is called now.

So, essentially, the Greens, Liberals, and NDP all want to hold off on an election, but have to pretend they want an election right now. I wish some of them would come out and Jim Carrey-Liar Liar and say "Because it's devastating to my case"

I'm not sure what Envision is talking about regarding the American elections... yes, Kamala had leads, but nearly all polls leading up to the election were neck and neck, a lot of people just refused to believe it because Trump is just so erratic and polarizing. (Betting odds show Kamala's highest odds were 53.7% the entire election cycle)

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by NB_ExistsToo

I see Trudeau trying to ride the train as long as possible and it's most definitely what all other non-CPC MP's want too. All parties know conservatives are pretty much on easy street if the election is called now.

So, essentially, the Greens, Liberals, and NDP all want to hold off on an election, but have to pretend they want an election right now. I wish some of them would come out and Jim Carrey-Liar Liar and say "Because it's devastating to my case"

I'm not sure what Envision is talking about regarding the American elections... yes, Kamala had leads, but nearly all polls leading up to the election were neck and neck, a lot of people just refused to believe it because Trump is just so erratic and polarizing. (Betting odds show Kamala's highest odds were 53.7% the entire election cycle)

Yep, Trump had a steady (and growing) lead over Biden. Harris got a bit of a honeymoon bump when Biden withdrew and she became the choice. The lead was almost always very small and often within the margin of error and steadily eroded through the last 6 weeks of the campaign.

I think most people, myself included, just couldn't believe Trump could possibly be elected again.

[sailor734]

I believe the NDP will still try and weasel out of voting non confidence when the house returns. If Trudeau steps down I could certainly see them choosing to support his replacement " on a case by case basis". There is no benefit to them facing an election any sooner than they absolutely have to. CPC and the Bloc, on the other hand, are eager to go.

When I look at the farce that is our PM and his government I can't help but think that Cromwell's comment to the Long Parliament is apt in this situation.....

"It is not fit that you should sit here any longer. You have sat here too long for any good you have been doing lately … In the name of God go.“

[sailor734]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/susan-holt-won-t-stay-past-two-terms-1.7416486

Interesting....