Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion II

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Changing City

There are no planned transfers from Ottawa for transit operations, only infrastructure funding. It's quite possible that a federal conservative government would not fund further transit expansion. Poilievre has already linked transit funding to increasing housing construction, which isn't likely to have sustained growth, so will be his excuse to stop any funding (assuming that idea isn't just hot air).

Actually, Ottawa was planning on a new OPERATIONAL subsidy for transit agencies beginning in 2026 which Translink, the TTC, STM, and basically every transit agency was pleading with them to bring it in 2025. With a PP gov't consider that money gone. Yes he has also stated that any infrastructure funding will be tied to housing construction but that amount could decline significantly and wasn't exclusively for transit but overall city infrastructure which could include transit.

There certainly is room for debate as to how these million fewer students/TFW will effect ridership but, quite frankly, I don't understand why any of you think that such a major loss of the demographic that transit systems rely on will not have a negative impact on Translink or any system in the country for that matter.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

There certainly is room for debate as to how these million fewer students/TFW will effect ridership but, quite frankly, I don't understand why any of you think that such a major loss of the demographic that transit systems rely on will not have a negative impact on Translink or any system in the country for that matter.

A "million" is a gross exaggeration; BC has roughly 175k to 218k international students.

By contrast, TransLink sees 1.2+ million passengers every day. Even if every single international student takes the bus (untrue, given all the high-end brands driving around campuses), and we sent each and every one home tomorrow (obviously not the case), they'd still have plenty of customers.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Actually, Ottawa was planning on a new OPERATIONAL subsidy for transit agencies beginning in 2026 which Translink, the TTC, STM, and basically every transit agency was pleading with them to bring it in 2025.

Link please.

The Canada Public Transit Fund was going to start funding transit INVESTMENT in 2026. There would be three different funding streams, and all of them were proposed to fund INFRASTRUCTURE.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Even if every single international student takes the bus (untrue, given all the high-end brands driving around campuses), and we sent each and every one home tomorrow (obviously not the case), they'd still have plenty of customers.

If you remove 218K from 1.2M that's close to a 20% decline, which isn't peanuts.

It's likely to be a fair bit less than that, though.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

If you remove 218K from 1.2M that's close to a 20% decline, which isn't peanuts.

It's likely to be a fair bit less than that, though.

The decline of international students in BC won't be close to 200,000. UBC and SFU had under the provincial government 30% cap for international students, so any reductions will purely be because students don't want to come to BC any more. Langara had 36% international students before the cap was introduced, and currently have 700 fewer international students than last year. But they still have over 4,500 of them. It's the private colleges that will have been most affected, but they took less than half the international student total, and they haven't all closed and disappeared.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Private colleges account for 105,700 international students... 49% of BC's total international students, and 19% of BC's post-secondary students overall. Yeah, hardly the end of the world for TransLink.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

If you remove 218K from 1.2M that's close to a 20% decline, which isn't peanuts.

It's likely to be a fair bit less than that, though.

I'm not even talking about a decline of even remotely close to 20%. I think even a 10% decline would be the extreme limit. I do, however, think a 5% decline is realistic as the students and TFW are forced out, the Metro will see it's population decline, costs continue to rise, all while the economy is slowing down.

In normal years, a 5% decline is a big deal but still manageable but these are not normal years for Translink. Translink was already warning the public about the financial mess they are in and impending huge service cuts and rising fares to have to deal with it BEFORE Ottawa did a complete 180 on it's immigration targets.

[Migrant_Coconut]

More like 2-3%, since many students didn't take transit in the first place. But TransLink's biggest problem is the decline in gas tax revenue, not 1/20th or less of their ridership.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I'm not even talking about a decline of even remotely close to 20%. I think even a 10% decline would be the extreme limit. I do, however, think a 5% decline is realistic as the students and TFW are forced out, the Metro will see it's population decline, costs continue to rise, all while the economy is slowing down.

In normal years, a 5% decline is a big deal but still manageable but these are not normal years for Translink. Translink was already warning the public about the financial mess they are in and impending huge service cuts and rising fares to have to deal with it BEFORE Ottawa did a complete 180 on it's immigration targets.

Last October, 2023, 20,824,000 trips were taken on the TransLink system. Revenue was $56,335,600 (excluding subsidies).

There was a 2.3% fare increase this year.

This October, (2024), 21,380,800 trips were taken, revenue was $60,589,500.

Next year the proposed fare increase is 4%. If it's approved, it should add more to the fare revenue.

A few international students here or there won't make much difference. The need for more operating funds remains an issue, but fare income isn't where the longer term future shortfall is coming from. TransLink had a $50m surplus in 2024, but are projecting a potential $70m shortfall in 2025.

Currently the provincial government help fund TransLink, but the commitment runs out after the $479m promised for 2025. There's no reason to think some form of future funding won't continue, now we have a new NDP government. All bets were off if the conservatives had won.

[officedweller]

Historical bus and streetcar/interurban rail routes downtown 1953:

https://searcharchives.vancouver.ca/uplo...-9740-46e4-a1fe-929e227dbdd2-LEG26.2.jpg

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by officedweller

Historical bus and streetcar/interurban rail routes downtown 1953:

https://searcharchives.vancouver.ca/uplo...-9740-46e4-a1fe-929e227dbdd2-LEG26.2.jpg

Would any of those old routes - even one of them - lend itself to being "reactivated" (with the necessary upgrades)? Probably not, but the map triggered the idea for me anyway.

[officedweller]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Would any of those old routes - even one of them - lend itself to being "reactivated" (with the necessary upgrades)? Probably not, but the map triggered the idea for me anyway.

No.

[Lexus]

Has anyone seen 5 car sets of Marks V? Translink was saying they were supposed to deploy the first set by end of 2024.

[Lexus]

Apparently now they say “Mark V will be ready to serve customers in spring 2025”, although first set arrived in Burnaby December 2023…

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by Lexus

Apparently now they say “Mark V will be ready to serve customers in spring 2025”, although first set arrived in Burnaby December 2023…

We currently have three Mark V trains located at our Edmonds maintenance yard. The first Mark V train has completed many static and dynamic tests, while the second Mark V train arrived on site in August and is currently undergoing qualification testing. Train 3 was shipped from Alstom’s Kingston plan at the end of Q3 after finishing its test track testing and arrived at OMC1 in mid-October. Other commission activities this quarter included the completed design of onboard route map displays and messaging screens.

According to the latest Mark V testing results, we expect the first train to enter service in Q1 2025. By the end of 2025, current projections indicate we will have 10-12 Mark V trains in-service. This will be subject to continued testing and monitoring of performance.

https://www.translink.ca/-/media/transli...-board-mtg-agenda-posting-04-12-2024.pdf

[idunno]

You don't wanna rush testing with new trains (I'm looking at you Ottawa LRT)

[dpogue]

Originally Posted by Lexus

Apparently now they say “Mark V will be ready to serve customers in spring 2025”, although first set arrived in Burnaby December 2023…

I assume beyond the extensive system testing that they're doing with the train itself, one reason for the seemingly slow entry to service is due to the modifications needed at stations with regards to intrusion sensor repositioning and track access points for staff.

The next phase of testing and commissioning before public service is to have the train running around during normal service and making station stops, but with no passengers on board. It has to do a certain number of hours of "pretending to be in service" to make sure it plays nicely with all the other trains at rush hour before they can actually put it into revenue service.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by dpogue

The next phase of testing and commissioning before public service is to have the train running around during normal service and making station stops, but with no passengers on board.

Living near Edmonds Station means I've seen this quite a few times over the years.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by dpogue

I assume beyond the extensive system testing that they're doing with the train itself, one reason for the seemingly slow entry to service is due to the modifications needed at stations with regards to intrusion sensor repositioning and track access points for staff.

The next phase of testing and commissioning before public service is to have the train running around during normal service and making station stops, but with no passengers on board. It has to do a certain number of hours of "pretending to be in service" to make sure it plays nicely with all the other trains at rush hour before they can actually put it into revenue service.

They moved some emergency exits as well.

JAWN: I see. Okay. And then when you mentioned like the GIMS, we are going to have to obviously move those, as you sort of mentioned. Why is that?

RON: Well, the new trains, are five meters longer, so two and a half meters on each end of the platform will stick out and if anything blocks those GIMS, they will send an alarm to the control room saying that someone’s going out into the tracks. So, we have to reposition them so they’re not doing that continually.

JAWN: And will the stations change themselves? I know that there is going to be work done on stations to, to eventually be able to handle longer train cars when the Mark V eventually comes.

RON: Most of the stations are having the GIM posts removed, or moved further, further out. There are a few emergency exits, probably about five or six stations that have to have the emergency exits moved a bit further away, for access for the trains.

Guideway Intrusion Monitoring System. So, there are metal posts at the end of each platform edge. We used to have, and we actually do still have end gates at the platforms, but the wind would blow them open. So, this now detects any motion, it has to break four beams before, before they’ll set off. So, and you see, she also brought the camera up to see the location. And actually we spotted that it was birds going through it at the time.

https://buzzer.translink.ca/2023/11/translink-podcast-step-inside-the-skytrain-control-centre/

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by jollyburger

They moved some emergency exits as well.

For those wondering, "GIMS" = Guideway Intrusion Monitoring System - these are aluminum posts installed on either side of the track just beyond the gate that leads to the catwalk along the track. The posts contain light sensors to detect someone accessing the catwalk.