Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

And to hell with what some foreigner who has no skin in the game has to say about the subject. To put it plainly: It isn't your country.

So I can’t say I’m in favor of the Irish not being ruled from London if that’s what they prefer, the Scots not being ruled from London if that’s what they prefer, the Catalans not being ruled from Madrid if that’s what they prefer, the Czechs not being ruled from Vienna if that’s what they prefer, the Ukrainians not being ruled from Moscow if that’s what they prefer, the Taiwanese not being ruled from Beijing if that’s what they prefer, etc.

I have no skin in any of the above except the general preservation of Pax Americana (so I guess I could be allowed to voice objection to Putin and Xi) so I have to shut up? This is a discussion forum… why not let people discuss?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

So I can’t say I’m in favor of the Irish not being ruled from London if that’s what they prefer, the Scots not being ruled from London if that’s what they prefer, the Catalans not being ruled from Madrid if that’s what they prefer, the Czechs not being ruled from Vienna if that’s what they prefer, the Ukrainians not being ruled from Moscow if that’s what they prefer, the Taiwanese not being ruled from Beijing if that’s what they prefer, etc.

I have no skin in any of the above except the general preservation of Pax Americana (so I guess I could be allowed to voice objection to Putin and Xi) so I have to shut up? This is a discussion forum… why not let people discuss?

And most important of all, Canadians should not be allowed to say they would rather Americans not elect Donald Trump!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Slovakia was a net receiver in Czechoslovakia. That didn't prevent them from leaving, and it turns out they've done better than the Czech Republic since independence actually. Perhaps because when you're your own country, you need to become more serious because mom and dad are not there anymore to pay your bills.

Same for Norway, they've done better since independence from Sweden (even before discovering oil). Ireland is another case (although it took them several decades to finally outperform the rump UK).

I do not believe that it is true that Slovakia has done better than Czechia.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Quebec?!? Pffft... even the French from France don't like those guys! is a pretty classic and essential Canadian cope and dismissal.

Which is ridiculous if true. I think I've never heard of any French person who doesn't like the Québécois. Many people don't really like your accent (sorry), but not liking the people, that's something I've never heard. People in France have almost always a very positive view of Québec ("nos cousins", etc), even those who have never met or don't know much about Québec, and those who have actually met some Québécois or been there always have a good opinion. You never hear mockery of the Québécois like you can hear mockery of the Belgians in France.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by lio45

The fact that pre-Brexit was a good situation, is actually an argument in favor of Quebec sovereignty: it shows that Britain, France, Germany, etc. did not need to politically merge into each other to enjoy freedom of movement for people and goods.

I also find this reference to Brexit (as playing against the OUI side in Québec) a bit odd. Perhaps you guys are a bit behind the curve, but here in Europe the general view now is that Brexit made little difference in economic terms. The Armageddon that was predicted did not happen, and the UK is doing ok, certainly better than Germany (which is the real sick man in Europe now), and about the same as France which didn't Frexit. So the general view now (much to the chagrin of Remainers and pro-EU types) is that Brexit was rather neutral from an economic point of view.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Healthcare is just as rotten in Ontario (the only way my SO could find a GP was because bilingual ones have much shorter waiting lists)

Speaking of this, we got the results of our population census yesterday (2022 census), and France is now going the way of Canada: our net migration is exploding. In 2021 (our census is annual now, not quinquennial like in Canada) the net migration in France reached a record +316,000, the highest number since the war (with the exception of 1962 when hundreds of thousands of French people fled Algeria and moved to France). And this at a time of total collapse in housing construction due to crazy new laws making it almost impossible to build new dwellings (due to eco-extremist lobbies that would be too long and too off topic to explain here). So I wonder whether we'll end up like Toronto sooner or later (the number of people sleeping in the streets in Paris is already staggering, this despite the largest welfare state in the world).

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Bottom line a divorce and this would be an even bigger one emotionally than Brexit. The Rest of Canada would play hardball and hold the cards as CETA and CUSMA continued and RoC is 75% of the consumer market so Quebec would have to accept worse terms of trade than now which it would be very reluctant to do creating a spiral. I know these kind of threats and reality checks didn't work for Brexit voters but the example is there.

I agree that this divorce would be a bigger one emotionally than Brexit, but you're very wrong on the economic side.

You forget one major thing:
- UK vs rump EU was 1 (UK) to 6.6 (rump EU) (i.e. rump EU is 6.6 times more populated than the UK)
- Québec vs rump Canada is only 1 (Québec) to 3.35 (rump Canada)

Québec is far more important to rump Canada than the UK is to rump EU. Also, there's far more trade between Québec and the ROC than between the UK and the rest of the EU, so the ROC would suffer much much more than the rest of the UE if things went badly after a Québec secession. This is why the EU was mostly unflappable and uncompromising with Brexit, because we had considerably less to lose than the UK. This wouldn't be the case at all in Canada if Québec seceded. Rump Canada would have as much to lose as Québec, which is why it is extremely unlikely they would be as uncompromising as the EU.

In fact this was the only interesting thing that Grok said when I asked it about Québec's independence: it believed that in case of independence (which it didn't deem the most likely scenario at this point in time), both sides would have great incentives to compromise and reach an economic agreement as seamless as possible.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

I agree that this divorce would be a bigger one emotionally than Brexit, but you're very wrong on the economic side.

You forget one major thing:
- UK vs rump EU was 1 (UK) to 6.6 (rump EU) (i.e. rump EU is 6.6 times more populated than the UK)
- Québec vs rump Canada is only 1 (Québec) to 3.35 (rump Canada)

Québec is far more important to rump Canada than the UK is to rump EU. Also, there's far more trade between Québec and the ROC than between the UK and the rest of the EU, so the ROC would suffer much much more than the rest of the UE if things went badly after a Québec secession. This is why the EU was mostly unflappable and uncompromising with Brexit, because we had considerably less to lose than the UK. This wouldn't be the case at all in Canada if Québec seceded. Rump Canada would have as much to lose as Québec, which is why it is extremely unlikely they would be as uncompromising as the EU.

In fact this was the only interesting thing that Grok said when I asked it about Québec's independence: it believed that in case of independence (which it didn't deem the most likely scenario at this point in time), both sides would have great incentives to compromise and reach an economic agreement as seamless as possible.

Another advantage is that the ROC and Quebec have the US to act as the big man of the room and direct the negotiations, if necessary. No such entity existed between the UK and the EU.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I thought JT was destroying Canada? Where is the liocounterargument?

This study can be challenged in many ways. The biggest criticism I would make is it focuses only on full time workers. Yet society is made up of much more than just full time workers (there are also retirees, so numerous in the Western world now, part time workers, unemployed people, students). So it doesn't show how the general population fared, but just how a certain section of the general population fared.

Then there is the issue of "per capita" of course. Do they have the right population figures? Canada has experienced very high net migration recently, so that has necessarily sunk the GDP per capita. What population figures have they used?

At the end of the day, the only correct measure of economic success is real GDP per capita growth (not just revenues of full time workers), but you need to have your "per capita" right in the first place (which is very hard these days because statistical offices often fail to keep track of population evolution, what with the sudden bursts of migrant arrivals).

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I do not believe that it is true that Slovakia has done better than Czechia.

Well.

Real GDP growth 1995-2024 (the IMF doesn't have figures before 1995):
- Slovak Republic: +160.8%
- Czech Republic: +88.6%

Real GDP per capita growth 1995-2024:
- Slovak Republic: +159.4%
- Czech Republic: +78.2%

The success story that has been the Slovak Republic is well known here in Europe.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Well.

Real GDP growth 1995-2024 (the IMF doesn't have figures before 1995):
- Slovak Republic: +160.8%
- Czech Republic: +88.6%

Real GDP per capita growth 1995-2024:
- Slovak Republic: +159.4%
- Czech Republic: +78.2%

The success story that has been the Slovak Republic is well known here in Europe.

Ok I guess if you view it that way. Czechia’s GDP per capita is still a quarter to a third higher, so I guess Slovakia started from even further behind.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

so I guess Slovakia started from even further behind.

Yeah. In 1992 (the year before independence), the PPP GNI* per capita of Slovakia was at 57.3% of the level of the Czech Republic. In 2023 it was at 84.1% of the level of the Czech Republic.

The Slovaks are convinced that their catching up with the Czechs is due to their independence. They feel they were being neglected inside Czechoslovakia.

*Gross National Income, which is a better measure than GDP for standards of living.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Well.

Real GDP growth 1995-2024 (the IMF doesn't have figures before 1995):
- Slovak Republic: +160.8%
- Czech Republic: +88.6%

Real GDP per capita growth 1995-2024:
- Slovak Republic: +159.4%
- Czech Republic: +78.2%

The success story that has been the Slovak Republic is well known here in Europe.

This isn't a good example because it was done simultaneously with a transition from communism so all the supply chains and trading networks were destroyed anyway. From 1990 Czechia lost 15 % of GDP and Slovaks closer to 30. Yes even with that Slovakia has grown more than Czechia and they now have about the same output per person.
Now it's true compared to Hungary and Poland Czechia and Slovakia don't seemed to have suffered any worse for separating but again I think this is because the economy started from scratch at least in terms of trade anyway.

It's also not 1995. If Quebec had separated in 1995 it's certainly possible they would have done as well as they have economically after an initial small shock as NAFTA was new and trade wasn't as critical nor as imbedded.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

I also find this reference to Brexit (as playing against the OUI side in Québec) a bit odd. Perhaps you guys are a bit behind the curve, but here in Europe the general view now is that Brexit made little difference in economic terms. The Armageddon that was predicted did not happen, and the UK is doing ok, certainly better than Germany (which is the real sick man in Europe now), and about the same as France which didn't Frexit. So the general view now (much to the chagrin of Remainers and pro-EU types) is that Brexit was rather neutral from an economic point of view.

This is not true. The UK has trailed Eurozone growth and trailed where they would have been without Brexit. Sure Germany has faltered the most though this isn't a brexit story it's self suicide on energy policy and dependence on China (and other factors)

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is not true. The UK has trailed Eurozone growth and trailed where they would have been without Brexit. Sure Germany has faltered the most though this isn't a brexit story it's self suicide on energy policy and dependence on China (and other factors)

Well if we compare from the Brexit referendum in 2016, then the compounded real GDP growth rate in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 has been:
- UK: +11.7%
- Eurozone: +12.7%
- Canada: +16.1%

And if we compare from the actual Brexit date in 2020, then the compounded real GDP growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 has been:
- UK: +4.32%
- Eurozone: +3.57%
- Canada: +6.51%

So the predicted Armageddon didn't take place. The UK has done slightly worse than the Eurozone since the Brexit referendum, but oddly that was before Brexit actually took place. Since Brexit actually took place, they've done slightly better than the Eurozone.

The general view here is Brexit was largely neutral, because it was overshadowed by much larger phenomenons: Covid-19 and the European energy crisis with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Of course the Remainers at the FT will argue that the UK is considerably lower now than what it would have been if the curves from before 2016 had been prolonged, but simply prolonging curves makes me very skeptical. The UK economic growth was unsustainable already before 2016, relying as it did on cheap low-productivity immigration.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Well if we compare from the Brexit referendum in 2016, then the compounded real GDP growth rate in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 has been:
- UK: +11.7%
- Eurozone: +12.7%
- Canada: +16.1%

And if we compare from the actual Brexit date in 2020, then the compounded real GDP growth rate in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 has been:
- UK: +4.32%
- Eurozone: +3.57%
- Canada: +6.51%

So the predicted Armageddon didn't take place. The UK has done slightly worse than the Eurozone since the Brexit referendum, but oddly that was before Brexit actually took place. Since Brexit actually took place, they've done slightly better than the Eurozone.

The general view here is Brexit was largely neutral, because it was overshadowed by much larger phenomenons: Covid-19 and the European energy crisis with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Of course the Remainers at the FT will argue that the UK is considerably lower now than what it would have been if the curves from before 2016 had been prolonged, but simply prolonging curves makes me very skeptical. The UK economic growth was unsustainable already before 2016, relying as it did on cheap low-productivity immigration.

This is all fair as analysis but at a micro level there are tons of demonstrated losses from brexit and very little gains. The UK is crisis for many reasons for sure. It's still a disaster in terms of how it unfolded. The land border being a huge redflag for a Quebec separation.

[lio45]

The land border is a problem for Canada, not for Quebec.

Quebec itself is a coherent one-piece entity with ocean access. We don’t need anyone.

In the event of sovereignty, I don’t think Canada will want to play hardball, Quebec would just cozy up to the EU or Yanks (they like our resources and clean energy) while cutting off the eastern four of the nine provinces from the western five ones.

A hard border between Quebec and the RoC would probably destroy the rest of the country too.

[harls]

Originally Posted by lio45

We don’t need anyone.

Good grief.

[MolsonExport]

By pushing sovereignty, Quebec would have already played hardball. Fair game.

And Lio, I thought you wanted to move to the states? With friends like these....

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

And Lio, I thought you wanted to move to the states? With friends like these....

Depends on various factors, so, it’s not a given that I will.

I gave the question of what I’d vote in a hypothetical third referendum some thought a while ago thanks to this thread, and back then I figured I’d go the George Carlin route: not voting, because I don’t care enough either way and at least that way, I can’t be blamed for the results, whatever they are.

(I’d have a clean 0-in-3 voting record: 1980, not born yet, 1995, too young to vote, 20xx, don’t give a shit.)



That said, I’m open to letting New Brisavoine convince me to bother casting a “Yes” vote

[harls]

Originally Posted by lio45

Depends on various factors, so, it’s not a given that I will.

I gave the question of what I’d vote in a hypothetical third referendum some thought a while ago thanks to this thread, and back then I figured I’d go the George Carlin route: not voting, because I don’t care enough either way and at least that way, I can’t be blamed for the results, whatever they are.

(I’d have a clean 0-in-3 voting record: 1980, not born yet, 1995, too young to vote, 20xx, don’t give a shit.)



That said, I’m open to letting New Brisavoine convince me to bother casting a “Yes” vote

Is Acajack asleep? Wow. That guy usually is always available.