Tempe Development Thread

[Phxguy]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

There has been so much turnover on Mill lately. I was there earlier today and noticed that Slices pizzeria is gone and Phoenicia, a few blocks away, is closing this month.

Fuzzy's Taco and Bang Bang Sushi on the 2nd-floor of the the Gordon Biersch building also shuttered this month. Mellow Mushroom had a great happy hour when I was a student

[somethingfast]

Originally Posted by Phxguy

Fuzzy's Taco and Bang Bang Sushi on the 2nd-floor of the the Gordon Biersch building also shuttered this month. Mellow Mushroom had a great happy hour when I was a student

Not enough discretionary income to support all the eateries in this lousy economy. Hopefully next year will improve.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by somethingfast

Not enough discretionary income to support all the eateries in this lousy economy. Hopefully next year will improve.

The economy is generally strong, and this seems to be a disease unique to Mill Avenue. Restaurants are opening much faster than they close in other urban centers like downtown Phoenix and downtown Mesa, but somehow it seems like Mill still hasn't recovered from COVID. Other parts of Tempe like Apache Boulevard are doing better. I'm not sure exactly what the underlying cause is, but it seems unique to this district as longstanding places close and the newcomers that replace them flame out after a short time.

[somethingfast]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

The economy is generally strong, and this seems to be a disease unique to Mill Avenue. Restaurants are opening much faster than they close in other urban centers like downtown Phoenix and downtown Mesa, but somehow it seems like Mill still hasn't recovered from COVID. Other parts of Tempe like Apache Boulevard are doing better. I'm not sure exactly what the underlying cause is, but it seems unique to this district as longstanding places close and the newcomers that replace them flame out after a short time.

The real economy isn't strong. There are several asset bubbles (stocks, residential real estate) creating the illusion of wealth but real wages are stagnant and real job growth is very weak with mostly part-time or gig work replacing full time work. Current administration has GREATLY overstated jobs numbers every month only to have them revised downward significantly. Inflation is still killing discretionary purchasing power.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by somethingfast

The real economy isn't strong. There are several asset bubbles (stocks, residential real estate) creating the illusion of wealth but real wages are stagnant and real job growth is very weak with mostly part-time or gig work replacing full time work. Current administration has GREATLY overstated jobs numbers every month only to have them revised downward significantly. Inflation is still killing discretionary purchasing power.

An extended debated about the current state of the economy and any changes anticipated after January 20 would be off topic for this thread. Instead, I'll reiterate my main point: There is something going on with Mill Avenue that is noticeably worse than with other urban centers in the region.

[MiEncanto]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

An extended debated about the current state of the economy and any changes anticipated after January 20 would be off topic for this thread. Instead, I'll reiterate my main point: There is something going on with Mill Avenue that is noticeably worse than with other urban centers in the region.

I'll take this unusual opportunity to say I agree with exit2lef. The Arizona economy is doing well by nearly every measure and there is something weird happening with Mill.

My theory is young people are fickle and want to participate in "the latest" thing. And that is found in other parts of town. There are lines to get in bars in old town Gilbert. It's unfathomable to me. But young people have clearly decided Mill isn't cool and frankly, I think they're right.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by MiEncanto

I'll take this unusual opportunity to say I agree with exit2lef. The Arizona economy is doing well by nearly every measure and there is something weird happening with Mill.

My theory is young people are fickle and want to participate in "the latest" thing. And that is found in other parts of town. There are lines to get in bars in old town Gilbert. It's unfathomable to me. But young people have clearly decided Mill isn't cool and frankly, I think they're right.

Competition with other places in the metro area could very well be a big part of the explanation. A few decades ago, Mill Avenue was just about the only place with a walkable urban environment that didn't shut down at 5 PM. Now, there are so many other choices that Mill may no longer be the default choice the way it was in '90s. The captive student population at ASU may not be the right fit for some of the newer concepts that have failed to catch on. At the same time. landlords are asking for more rent than the typical college-oriented place can afford, so it's only die-hards that own their land (e.g. the Chuckbox) who can endure.

[somethingfast]

Trying to be more constructive here, I will say that Mill Avenue seems pretty commercial now...and I mean that in a bad way. Having just been to Austin and in the UT and downtown areas, it was amazing how many "real" and "local" bars, restaurants, etc. were in that area. It felt like you were somewhere truly local. Sure, there were national chain presences...but not the majority. Tempe feels like a Disneyland college experience to me. I'm guessing young people just don't enjoy that vibe and Tempe should encourage non brand/chain development.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by somethingfast

Trying to be more constructive here, I will say that Mill Avenue seems pretty commercial now...and I mean that in a bad way. Having just been to Austin and in the UT and downtown areas, it was amazing how many "real" and "local" bars, restaurants, etc. were in that area. It felt like you were somewhere truly local. Sure, there were national chain presences...but not the majority. Tempe feels like a Disneyland college experience to me. I'm guessing young people just don't enjoy that vibe and Tempe should encourage non brand/chain development.

Yes, that's especially true on the blocks of Sixth and Seventh streets between Mill and College. The ground floor retail spaces in the new high-rises there are largely occupied, but mainly with chains. Meanwhile, the retail space on Mill per se has many vacancies.

[azsunsurfer]

No inflation is killing discretionary income and growth is limited to the posher metropolitain types...even Downtown Gilbert is now not anemic to turnover as of recent. These restaurants are already operating at razor thin margins...I mean eegees just went bankrupt for crying out loud (never understood the appeal but Tucsonians are a special breed).

I still do agree with the sentiment of this forum that Arizona is in a much better economic condition than most states.

[Forrester1998]

I think a large part of this story is that the city has been trying pretty hard to re-brand downtown Tempe as a place that's not just for students and is for young professionals as well and that's led to a lot of growing pains. I actually like that they are doing this in general because I think long term it will be good for downtown but it's led to the city trying to woo higher end restaurants aka Yuppie stuff onto Mill and that just isn't what the local market supports yet. The proposed non-student housing developments have been slow to begin construction (see: the 4 high rise projects on University that were approved in 2023 and haven't broken ground yet) meanwhile the student housing options are breaking ground literally weeks after approval down on Apache Blvd (which is good!). Also, the office jobs environment that was supposed to support the influx of young professionals into Tempe was really shaken by Covid even though Tempes office market has been relatively strong (relatively doing a lot of heavy lifting here).

Speaking of Austin, that's a city that has handled the influx of young professionals into its downtown entertainment very well. When I lived in Austin 6th Street had essentially informally cut itself into 3 sections which catered to different groups (West 6th for college students, the central "Dirty 6th" for older adults, and East 6th for yuppie types). Could envision something like that happening on Mill, even though it's not physically as long as 6th Street to accommodate the separation (also, Mill IS a much more pleasant walking environment than a lot of 6th Street in Austin, so it does have that going for it). Just some food for thought!

[azliam]

Originally Posted by somethingfast

Trying to be more constructive here, I will say that Mill Avenue seems pretty commercial now...and I mean that in a bad way. Having just been to Austin and in the UT and downtown areas, it was amazing how many "real" and "local" bars, restaurants, etc. were in that area. It felt like you were somewhere truly local. Sure, there were national chain presences...but not the majority. Tempe feels like a Disneyland college experience to me. I'm guessing young people just don't enjoy that vibe and Tempe should encourage non brand/chain development.

Imagine Austin a decade or two or three prior. Austin is in many ways a manufactured version of its former self often at the expense of those mom and pop institutions and is living off of a dated reputation of being unique and quirky. Furthermore, many of the creative individuals who helped put Austin on the map way back when have moved onto other cities whilst corporate types and high COL have helped to push out much of the creative class and small business owners in Austin.

[azsunsurfer]

Mill has a long and painful path forward towards maturing...remember this was a street that once use to house a Z Gallerie and Abercrombie....

You also have to remember that Mill has had a lot of painful interuptions...Streetcar construction...lightrail construction...now the street being reconstructed let alone all the construction on surrounding streets...

[Forrester1998]

Also, regarding Mellow Mushroom specifically: I like Mellow Mushroom but tbh I think it's a weird fit for Mill. Even pre-Covid it was expensive for what it is and it's also just a chain that's always been a better fit as a family restaurant than in a young adult/student oriented district. TBH I think with Prince Street Pizza coming soon I think Mill's pizza needs will be more well served than they have been with Mellow Mushroom.

[somethingfast]

Originally Posted by azliam

Imagine Austin a decade or two or three prior. Austin is in many ways a manufactured version of its former self often at the expense of those mom and pop institutions and is living off of a dated reputation of being unique and quirky. Furthermore, many of the creative individuals who helped put Austin on the map way back when have moved onto other cities whilst corporate types and high COL have helped to push out much of the creative class and small business owners in Austin.

I don't have an earlier Austin to compare what I saw but I do understand that many long-term locals view the recent changes as very negative with much of the local music scene being squeezed out. That said, it still appears to be a quirky "local" scene to an outsider...especially one from the very dull, homogeneous, samey Phoenix market.

[AZSunHiker]

I'd wager the issue is competition from other locales. Scottsdale for clubbing, Tempe Marketplace for shopping, and any new entrant trying to be an "it" place is competing with them plus DTPHX, Gilbert, and Chandler. The successful places have been long-time locals who know the market. For example there was a huge line outside CASA last Friday night. I'm sure it's no coincidence they have a reputation (brand) for buckets-o-booze and expanding their premises onto the street for game day and holidays which rakes in valuable extra revenue. Fat Tuesdays has the cheap fruity sweet slushies. Varsity is still popular.

[Ttown5]

The pier has a new page up. New renderings. Odd language, looks as though it was done by someone who is not native English speaking so unsure about this development. Seems like it’s been relatively unprofessionally done from start to finish which makes me concerned about its future. But looks good.

https://springbrookdevelopment.com/site/index.php

[azliam]

Originally Posted by somethingfast

I don't have an earlier Austin to compare what I saw but I do understand that many long-term locals view the recent changes as very negative with much of the local music scene being squeezed out. That said, it still appears to be a quirky "local" scene to an outsider...especially one from the very dull, homogeneous, samey Phoenix market.

I get it. Austin also had a hell of a lot more bones and infrastructure to its downtown that adds more character than PHX.

[AZSunHiker]

The pier has a new page up. New renderings. Odd language, looks as though it was done by someone who is not native English speaking so unsure about this development. Seems like it’s been relatively unprofessionally done from start to finish which makes me concerned about its future. But looks good.

HTML Code:
https://springbrookdevelopment.com/site/index.php

That's a test site not ready for full deployment. The About page has text in latin, the phone number is in X's, and there are links to a web developer called Themefisher.

[cdfif030]

Arizona's economy is performing incredibly well in terms of real GDP, real wages, and job growth. The state is outperforming the US on average. With economic growth comes externalities - positive and negative. Some people get left behind in growing economies. Uber drivers are not seeing their wages rise at the same pace ASU is pumping out high wage engineering and business degrees (over 50,000 current students). I regularly cringe at these comments that skate on political rhetoric while ignoring other factors at play.
https://oeo.az.gov/economic-indicators

Yes, Arizona suffers from a housing affordability crisis due to strict development patterns and land use restrictions. This stifles supply, driving housing costs up. This is a land use regulation problem. Cities like Houston and Minneapolis have overcome this with land use reform. Cities like LA and SF in contrast make housing really hard to build, driving up costs. That is the duality of policy in differing liberal strongholds.
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-an...ousing-costs-and-homelessness-in-arizona

Tempe is also suffering from the transition to WFH. There is ample office space in the urban core. Former workers are not going out to eat at the same places they used to as they are working from home. 20-25% office vacancy is not a good indicator. In fact, Tempe leads the valley in office vacancy rates.
https://www.12news.com/article/news/loca.../75-3804df5d-5cdb-4653-aafc-fcf7b0e31624

Anecdotal, but Tempe is no longer the sole urban hub in the valley. Ten year ago you would not have seen me regularly going to downtown Phoenix for the First Friday art festivals. Both Phoenix and Scottsdale are experiencing urban transformations. Tempe is facing competition.

Quite frankly, the current administration has very little sway over local policies. Is the current administration behind Florida's 21% GPD growth since 2019? Im not so sure about that. Is the current administration responsible for the exodus of tech workers from California? Probably not. Did this admin cause St. Louis to surge to the most violent city in the country? Of all the things I listed, this is probably it. /s