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  #2101  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 2:15 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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It's official.

737Max is going to Rouge. New YVR base to open by 2026.

A220 base at YVR to open by 2026 as well.

Page 67 onwards.

787-10 layout is out (page 100). 336 seats (42/32/262).

Page 57 is interesting. Shows each AC hub and its rank compared to other North American hubs.

Page 69 has the potential A321XLR route map. YOW/YHZ-LHR are on there. I don't see YOW-FRA, though.

Page 72, potential long haul routes.

Some of the more interesting ones: Istanbul, Riyadh, Bengaluru, Bali, Sapporo, Nagoya, Taipei, Melbourne, Fiji, Vietnam, Lima, Salvador, Fortaleza, Belem, Cartagena, Cairo, Marrakesh, Tunis, Abidjan, Accra, Lagos are all shown. + others.

https://investors.aircanada.com/download/Investor+Day+2024.pdf

Last edited by thenoflyzone; Dec 17, 2024 at 5:33 PM.
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  #2102  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 2:46 PM
fanofYOW fanofYOW is online now
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YLW just got added to PD’s list. Good to see this one!
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  #2103  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 3:01 PM
RomanR27 RomanR27 is online now
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Originally Posted by fanofYOW View Post
YLW just got added to PD’s list. Good to see this one!
Looks like YYZ-YLW is the only announcement, 5x weekly to start and then daily by the summer peak.
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  #2104  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 3:21 PM
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Originally Posted by MountainView View Post
Thanks for posting the YEG numbers.

I feel like this is what YOW could be if it wasn't sandwiched between YYZ and YUL - with the latter YUL only being a 90 minute drive away for exponentially more direct flights (and by association often cheaper).
Likely and YEG would be 10,000,000 if YYC was not there.
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  #2105  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 4:16 PM
MountainView MountainView is offline
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Originally Posted by RomanR27 View Post
Looks like YYZ-YLW is the only announcement, 5x weekly to start and then daily by the summer peak.
In Porter news - looks like they are launching YLW - Kelowna starting May 14. It is bookable on their website.

YYZ 09:15 - 10:55 YLW
YLW 11:50 - 19:00 YYZ
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  #2106  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 4:17 PM
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casper casper is offline
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Ended up connecting through YYZ onto TAP Air Portugal on the weekend.

I was surprised when I reached the gate in T1 to discover it was a lower level with bus loading. Turns out the bus ended taking me over to the infield terminal.

Looks like TAP, LOT and Copa are operating out of the infield terminal. That must be new or has it been like that for a while.
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  #2107  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 5:05 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by MountainView View Post
In Porter news - looks like they are launching YLW - Kelowna starting May 14. It is bookable on their website.

YYZ 09:15 - 10:55 YLW
YLW 11:50 - 19:00 YYZ
Here's the press release for the new daily service:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/2...Kelowna-With-New-Toronto-Pearson-Flights

I imagine this will be the first of several announcements to come for spring/summer 2025.

Here are my guesses for other new route additions this summer:

Domestic:
Atlantic: YYZ-YFC/YYG/YQM (there's a lot of slack to send these east daily for RONs with 0800 YYZ arrivals)
West: YYZ-YQR, YUL-YWG
Regional: YOW-YXU/YQG/YQB/YSJ/YSB (last summer there was 3 full DH4s worth of slack on top of the usual slack built into a fleet). 3 DH4s could easily fly those all daily & YXU 2x daily and still have a bit of slack.

Transborder:
YOW-LAX/SFO
Extend YOW-LAS/FLL to year-round

Last edited by Dominion301; Dec 17, 2024 at 5:17 PM.
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  #2108  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 5:18 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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EDIT: Duplicate
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  #2109  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 6:06 PM
msmariner msmariner is offline
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I’m surprised PD hasn’t flown or showed interest into Nanaimo or Comox on Vancouver Island. It’s a big WS market, but I believe there are zero direct flights to the east
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  #2110  
Old Posted Dec 17, 2024, 11:29 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by msmariner View Post
I’m surprised PD hasn’t flown or showed interest into Nanaimo or Comox on Vancouver Island. It’s a big WS market, but I believe there are zero direct flights to the east
Those markets from the east are pretty tiny, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see PD launch YOW-YYJ 3x weekly next summer. If they were to extend YOW-LAS to year-round at 4x (early anecdotal indicators are loads are in the low 90s, which would bode well for an extension), YOW-YYJ operating the other 3 days of the week would keep one aircraft busy with very similar stage lengths.
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  #2111  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2024, 4:20 AM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Rumour has it, PD will announce YQR-YYZ in the coming days.
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  #2112  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2024, 4:26 AM
Justanothermember Justanothermember is offline
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Originally Posted by Dominion301 View Post
Rumour has it, PD will announce YQR-YYZ in the coming days.
This is what I have heard as well. Hopefully an announcement for YWG-YUL will follow soon as well.
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  #2113  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2024, 8:39 AM
zahav zahav is offline
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
It's official.

737Max is going to Rouge. New YVR base to open by 2026.

A220 base at YVR to open by 2026 as well.

Page 67 onwards.

787-10 layout is out (page 100). 336 seats (42/32/262).

Page 57 is interesting. Shows each AC hub and its rank compared to other North American hubs.

Page 69 has the potential A321XLR route map. YOW/YHZ-LHR are on there. I don't see YOW-FRA, though.

Page 72, potential long haul routes.

Some of the more interesting ones: Istanbul, Riyadh, Bengaluru, Bali, Sapporo, Nagoya, Taipei, Melbourne, Fiji, Vietnam, Lima, Salvador, Fortaleza, Belem, Cartagena, Cairo, Marrakesh, Tunis, Abidjan, Accra, Lagos are all shown. + others.

https://investors.aircanada.com/download/Investor+Day+2024.pdf
Interesting... some of these things have been public for a while, but the 737 move to Rouge I didn't know about, that's pretty major. The MAX was supposed to form an integral part of their mainline network, but obviously they see it working better at Rouge The performance of the A220 is not a shock, it has a good capacity for domestic and transborder. I had posted over the weekend about how YVR being dominated by 737s and its higher capacity might be responsible for frequency losses (ie. YVR-YYC & YEG), as well as having to mix mainline and Jazz to get capacity in line. Maybe with the 220 bases, they won't have to put Jazz on routes like YVR to YEG, YYC, LAX, or PHX. I can't say I'm excited about Rouge coming back here, but I guess it makes sense financially with the soon-to-be upgraded fleet and the routes. I hope they don't go back to their initial YVR days when they switched everything to Rouge including routes like SFO and LAX, and that was a mistake. But I get how many routes make sense on Rouge (ie. Mexico, FLL, even Maui), so let's see how this plays out... The new routes are just dreams at this point, but let's hope some materialize for YUL, YYZ, and YVR. The Asian routes are optimistic, and they all seem likely only from YVR. But all the South America, Europe, and Africa routes could easily be YYZ or YUL, it's anyone's guess if they divide equally or give one more than the other (recently it has been a feast for YUL but less so for YYZ, so that could continue or not). Sad that YVR to South America seems just as distant as before, not being within the range of the 321XL is a real killer, that plane could have been our game changer, but it isn't physically realistic
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  #2114  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2024, 9:44 AM
zahav zahav is offline
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OAG (the world's premier airline statistics source) has released its 2024 route data, which covers a ton of specific categories (ie. ranking seats by sector and by region across the highest airport pairings). They publish a report ever year, but from looking at past reports, the methodology and categorization changes year to year. For instance, this year's report seems to only measure by seats (ie. measure flight frequency and aircraft capacity). In years past, they have used just # of flights as a rank. So it is hard to compare to years past without doing some cross referencing and deep aircraft research. This year they also changed their categorization, namely they now have a "North America" category which consists of Canada and the US (Mexico is in with "Latin America", I am not sure about Caribbean or how they split it?). In past OAG year end reports, they treated anything non-US as International, but this year it is unclear whether they] consider Canadian routes to the US as "domestic"? It's unclear because although there are no Canada-US route pairs in the top 10 of the "domestic routes by region", hard to tell if that's because the routes didn't count, or because none ranked in the top 10...

However, two Canadian routes made the top 10 busiest domestic pairings in North America (reminder, by seats). And one of those routes is the #1 busiest route in Canada AND the US I couldn't believe it, I had to triple check to make sure it wasn't a mis-read. Sure enough, YVR-YYZ was the #1 domestic route overall, with 3,498,835 seats. It came ahead of #2, ATL-ORL (3,474,713 and a route generally considered to be the biggest domestic pairing in the US). #3 is HNL-OGG, another perennial heavy hitter that obviously has suffered due to Maui's natural disaster and slipped from #1 in 2023. The rest of the top 10 consists of major airport pairs:

4. LAS-LAX
5. DEN-PHX
6. LAX-SFO
7. JFK-LAX
8. LGA-ORD
9. ATL-FLL

Then at #10, just squeezing in, is YVR-YYC (2,960,192 seats). It is pretty cool to see a domestic Canadian route at #1 and beating out so many iconic pairing like JFK-LAX. And then to have a 2nd entry in the top, so nice to see representation, and an important measure giving us in context to so many airports and routes we discuss (they only post Top 10 airports in the public release, not sure if there's more there with paid subscription). So congrats to YVR, YYC, and YYZ for making it on the list! And special mention of course to YVR for being part of both routes, including #1.

Honourable mentions go to Canadian airports making a showing in other categories:
-CUN-YYZ was the 8th largest Latin American international route (1,365,176 seats)
-YUL-CDG was the 6th largest international route from North America (1,515,224), and the only route in the top 10 from Canada to international, the rest were from the US
-Globally, we are still in the minor leagues lol, the numbers you see on some Asian domestic and International routes is insane, like 14+ million on a domestic pairing like JEJ-GMP (Jeju to Seoul Gimpo in South Korea). That's insane capacity. And strong showings from airports like CAI, who have impressive numbers (ie. CAI to Jeddah with 5.5 million seats, plus lots more). But Canada has a big selection of well connected airports, domestically, internationally, and especially to the US. These rankings are measuring a specific thing, they don't take in overall strength of an airport, just raw numbers by pairing. Just nice to see us on there at all

https://www.oag.com/busiest-routes-world-2024
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  #2115  
Old Posted Dec 18, 2024, 2:03 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post
Interesting... some of these things have been public for a while, but the 737 move to Rouge I didn't know about, that's pretty major.
It was rumoured for about a year now. Maybe more. I even spoke about it on here back in the day.

The 319s at Rouge are near end of life. Something had to be done. Also AC needed a narrowbody at Rouge that can fly YVR-Hawaii. The A319/320/321 aren't ETOPS certified, and some of them lack the range. The 737 Max 8 checks both those boxes. The first 17 or 18 737s delivered to AC are all ETOPS 180 certified. I believe it's all the C-Fxxx registered frames. The C-Gxxx ones aren't ETOPS.

This move was a matter of when, not if. The lower cost structure of the 737 Max at Rouge will enable AC to better compete on all the leisure routes, not just at YVR, but YYZ/YUL as well. Now let's see how dense they plan on going on the 737s. Currently the 737s seat 169. The exit limit is 189. Don't think they'll go all the way there, but I think they'll go high 170s, low 180s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by zahav View Post
Honourable mentions go to Canadian airports making a showing in other categories:
-CUN-YYZ was the 8th largest Latin American international route (1,365,176 seats)
-YUL-CDG was the 6th largest international route from North America (1,515,224), and the only route in the top 10 from Canada to international, the rest were from the US

https://www.oag.com/busiest-routes-world-2024
They're counting MCO-SJU (#2 on the list) as an international route. That's false. It's a domestic flight. US Citizens can travel freely to Puerto Rico, and don't need a US passport to do it. Puerto Ricans have US passports and are US citizens. They can also travel freely to the mainland without issues. The only thing they can't do is vote in the US elections.

So in reality, YUL-CDG is #5. If you remove JFK-SJU (#9) from the list as well, CUN-YYZ should come in at #10 on that list. Also, YYZ-LGA (1.31M seats/year, US DOT figure) is probably around 12th spot.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; Dec 18, 2024 at 3:14 PM.
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  #2116  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2024, 5:42 AM
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LO 044 LO 044 is offline
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Can the experts on here (noflyzone and Acey this means you lol) explain to me what AC is trying to do with Rouge? Is it a Leisure brand? Is it a Leisure AND "less business passenger destination" brand? Will the 737 have any business class seats or premium economy seats? Will the IFE's remain in the 737's? It seems strange to have IFE's on a leisure type brand. Saying that, Rouge could be like Condor where you get one or two (probably bad) movies for free and anything above that is pay per view. Will the "free" WiFi extend to Rouge?

I know the route maps aren't 100% correct all the time but it seems like the vast majority of Rouge routes will be leisure flights. But then there are exceptions like YYT-YYZ, YHZ-YVR and YYZ-YMM. Will Rouge be chosen for these routes as there isn't enough demand for business class seating? It may be as simple as that however if WestJet keeps their 737 layouts consistent, AC may lose passengers here. If I want to buy a YWG-YYZ-wherever business class ticket, that won't really be possible.

It also looks like AC mainline will fly "smaller" aircraft overall in that the bread and butter will be the A220 with 70 aircraft. No more A320's as the standard. The A321XLR will primarily be used on international routes. The only Canadian destinations look like YVR, YEG, YYC, YYZ and YUL. I could see the west to east red eyes using the 321XLR to get use of the lie-flat seats which I think is a prudent move. YVR/YYC-YYZ will probably get 788's or 789's on some of the east west routes as well. But basically, it looks like any City outside the five I mentioned will get the 220 or Rouged 737 for flights within Canada.

Bottom line, it looks like AC is recreating it's own version of Swoop. From what I have seen on the internet, WS seems to be reconfiguring Sunwing's seating to that of WestJet's but maybe someone more in the know can comment.
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  #2117  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2024, 6:49 AM
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post
I can't say I'm excited about Rouge coming back here, but I guess it makes sense financially with the soon-to-be upgraded fleet and the routes. I hope they don't go back to their initial YVR days when they switched everything to Rouge including routes like SFO and LAX, and that was a mistake.
I don't think that was a mistake, at least not according to AC.

AS was the market leader for the YVR-LAX route, having about half of the market share with up to 6 daily flights back in the day. AC use Rouge to dump capacity at low costs and effectively drove AS out. As soon as AS quitted, AC swap the route back to mainline. Now AC maintains by far the largest operator at that route. AC used to use this as an example for the success for capturing market share using Rouge.

Currently for most leisure routes to Hawaii and Mexico, WS is the largest operator out of YVR. Maybe AC think it's time to do something about it. I believe the current Rouge Airbus fleet is unable to reach Hawaii, Florida, Caribbean, and part of Mexico from YVR... maybe with the MAX fleet, it gives an opportunity for AC to expand sun routes out of YVR?
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  #2118  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2024, 8:20 AM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by nname View Post

currently for most leisure routes to hawaii and mexico, ws is the largest operator out of yvr. Maybe ac think it's time to do something about it. I believe the current rouge airbus fleet is unable to reach hawaii, florida, caribbean, and part of mexico from yvr... Maybe with the max fleet, it gives an opportunity for ac to expand sun routes out of yvr?
100%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LO 044 View Post
Can the experts on here (noflyzone and Acey this means you lol) explain to me what AC is trying to do with Rouge?
They want to be able to compete with WS out west. The A319/320/321 at Rouge can't do that. The Max can. It's as simple as that.
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  #2119  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2024, 2:30 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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Originally Posted by LO 044 View Post
Can the experts on here (noflyzone and Acey this means you lol) explain to me what AC is trying to do with Rouge? Is it a Leisure brand? Is it a Leisure AND "less business passenger destination" brand? Will the 737 have any business class seats or premium economy seats? Will the IFE's remain in the 737's? It seems strange to have IFE's on a leisure type brand. Saying that, Rouge could be like Condor where you get one or two (probably bad) movies for free and anything above that is pay per view. Will the "free" WiFi extend to Rouge?

I know the route maps aren't 100% correct all the time but it seems like the vast majority of Rouge routes will be leisure flights. But then there are exceptions like YYT-YYZ, YHZ-YVR and YYZ-YMM. Will Rouge be chosen for these routes as there isn't enough demand for business class seating? It may be as simple as that however if WestJet keeps their 737 layouts consistent, AC may lose passengers here. If I want to buy a YWG-YYZ-wherever business class ticket, that won't really be possible.

It also looks like AC mainline will fly "smaller" aircraft overall in that the bread and butter will be the A220 with 70 aircraft. No more A320's as the standard. The A321XLR will primarily be used on international routes. The only Canadian destinations look like YVR, YEG, YYC, YYZ and YUL. I could see the west to east red eyes using the 321XLR to get use of the lie-flat seats which I think is a prudent move. YVR/YYC-YYZ will probably get 788's or 789's on some of the east west routes as well. But basically, it looks like any City outside the five I mentioned will get the 220 or Rouged 737 for flights within Canada.

Bottom line, it looks like AC is recreating it's own version of Swoop. From what I have seen on the internet, WS seems to be reconfiguring Sunwing's seating to that of WestJet's but maybe someone more in the know can comment.
YOW-YVR will probably also see the XLR. Ditto YHZ-YYZ as YHZ-LHR will go XLR too. Also YYZ-YOW/YUL will likely also see an XLR or two a day for aircraft rotation (e.g., YOW-LHR that is supposed to be an XLR daily in the future). YYZ-YVR/YYC/YEG, YOW-YVR & YUL-YYC/YVR will almost certainly still see some widebody service. YYZ-YVR is majority widebody as it is with 321s sprinkled in at off-peak times. AC are also using the 333 on YUL-YHZ again this summer 1x/day.
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  #2120  
Old Posted Dec 19, 2024, 5:49 PM
Dominion301 Dominion301 is offline
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UA are returning to YQR and will launch daily YQR-DEN on 15MAY25: https://regina.ctvnews.ca/daily-flights-to-denver-coming-to-regina-in-2025-1.7151967
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