Statistics Canada Reports II

[Architype]

Originally Posted by zahav

...

-Last musing before I pass out from exhaustion. Turning to NL, interesting to see the figures. It seems like for many years now we have been hearing of NL's popularity, its turnaround, its growth, etc. There are so many younger people now (Gen Z) who have only known the Atlantic Canada of the 2020 and later period, and not how it once was with the young people leaving. Really starts making you feel old realizing these periods you remember so well were long before the young adults of today were born lol! Anyways, when you zoom out on NL and look past the recent years, you will see the hemoragghing out they used to be known for. For example: NL had a net -122,310 loss in the 50 year period, which works out to 22% of current population, the highest in the county. MB and SK weren't too far behind, with -17% and -18% losses compared to population. So while I'm glad NL made a turnaround, but the numbers when taken over a longer period are still generally bleak

While being appreciative of your work, it's worth mentioning that Newfoundland's population today is about 547,607, of course that's only according to the population clock estimate, but it suggests a larger turnaround than your analysis. The official peak population, from the 1991 census, was 568,475, resulting in a total net loss of only 20,868; quite different from your figure.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Architype

While being appreciative of your work, it's worth mentioning that Newfoundland's population today is about 547,607, of course that's only according to the population clock estimate, but it suggests a larger turnaround than your analysis. The official peak population, from the 1991 census, was 568,475, resulting in a total net loss of only 20,868; quite different from your figure.

The population of Newfoundland 50 years ago would have been almost identical to the 545,000 today, (based on the 1971 and 1976 census data).

Assuming the current population number is roughly compatible with the equivalent total in the intraprovincial change data (which it should be), that seems to suggest that despite a net loss of 122,000 to other provinces over a 50 year period, they were replaced by a combination of natural growth (in the earlier part of the 50 year period) and international migration.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The population of Newfoundland 50 years ago would have been almost identical to the 545,000 today, (based on the 1971 and 1976 census data).

Assuming the current population number is roughly compatible with the equivalent total in the intraprovincial change data (which it should be), that seems to suggest that despite a net loss of 122,000 to other provinces over a 50 year period, they were replaced by a combination of natural growth (in the earlier part of the 50 year period) and international migration.

Correct, and the out-migration was a historic pattern for much longer than 50 years, what I pointed out was not an error, but a comparison to actual net change. Newfoundland used to have the highest birthrate in Canada, more than it could sustain with a declining resource economy. Anecdotally, I meet people often with distant NL ancestry who have never even been there, including relatives. I suspect that today, with more immigration, the percentage of non-native born residents is higher than ever.

[kwoldtimer]

G&M reports that international student visas issuance is down 45% in August 2024 compared to August 2023.

[kwoldtimer]

Bank of Canada just cut the benchmark rate by .5%, down to 3.75%.

[MonctonRad]

Two pieces of very good news!

But, is it enough to save JT's hide???

I think not. Canadians are fed up with his pandering and insincere political correctness. How many Liberal scandals in the last nine year? I've lost count...............

[harls]

Gotta keep that inflation at 2 percent. Too high, no one spending.. too low, not enough spending.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Two pieces of very good news!

But, is it enough to save JT's hide???

I think not. Canadians are fed up with his pandering and insincere political correctness. How many Liberal scandals in the last nine year? I've lost count...............

The scandals don't amount to a hill of beans. The thing that sunk him when it was revealed that they had purposely broke the lines of communication in government, in particular with immagration and that resulted in companies and provinces exploiting the variously discoordinated programs resulting in crush loads of people to concentrate and overwhelm key communities, especially those where it maintained its winning edge.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Xelebes

The scandals don't amount to a hill of beans. The thing that sunk him when it was revealed that they had purposely broke the lines of communication in government, in particular with immagration and that resulted in companies and provinces exploiting the variously discoordinated programs resulting in crush loads of people to concentrate and overwhelm key communities, especially those where it maintained its winning edge.

Hmm, I'd say their foot dragging and prevarication on foreign influence investigations is a scandal.

[Xelebes]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Hmm, I'd say their foot dragging and prevarication on foreign influence investigations is a scandal.

Maybe, but perhaps it is more related to the immigration fiasco and its hit on key Liberal constituencies. But it's not so much that its a scandal that is the problem as scandals are too often about narratives than actual impact. And thus my commnet, that scandals themselves aren't worth a hill of beans when it comes to going in and out of power.

[davidivivid]

Percentage of SFH sold under 300 000$, 350 000$ and 400 000$ in 2023 in the different regions of the province.






https://blog.jlr.ca/immobilier/ou-achete...tm_content=330241311&utm_source=hs_email

[MolsonExport]

very interesting. Montreal's days of cheap housing stock are long gone. I remember when you could get a very nice SFH with 4+ bedrooms for under $300K.

[zahav]

Provincial and territorial economic accounts, 2023

I had written a post about the StatsCan release on GDP growth in 2023, but when I tried to post I was logged out (I guess too much time went by) and then I lost everything I posted, so couldn't get past that until now lol... Surprised no one has posted about this on =the page already, considering it is one of the most important figures in economics/policy. I guess stats from the past aren't interesting lol, people are more interested in forecasts for future . I am only discussing the provinces by the way; the territorial economies are so different, they aren't appropriate to be measure alongside provinces (this isn't my bias, StatCan separates the territories as well, and all big banks & economic organizations like Conference Board). So here's the final GDP change 2022-2023, from highest to lowest:

British Columbia +2.4%
Saskatchewan +2.3%
Alberta +2.3%
Prince Edward Island +2.2%
Nova Scotia +2.0%
Ontario +1.7%
Manitoba +1.7%
New Brunswick +1.6%
Canada +1.5%
Quebec +0.6%
Newfoundland and Labrador -2.6%

Lot of surprises for me, most forecasts had predicted lower growth for the majority of jurisdictions, so stronger overall than expected. Yes 2023 was coming off 2022 which still had some lingering Covid effects, so higher growth was expected, but it turned out more broad based than banks predicted. BC certainly was not predicted by anyone to be the fastest growth, this was a surprise. And contrary to pre-Covid years, you can't blame the housing market because it was in the toilet already, the foreign buyer flurry of yesteryear was a distant memory. Yet it still managed to top the list, impressive and yet some people would sooner distrust the stats or question validity of anything than take it as it is . 2024 will of course be different, this isn't a claim that it's permanent or a trend, this was last year. Just interesting to see the final numbers.

One thing does surprise me though... I am dumbfounded how overall national growth was 1.5%, yet every single province except QC and NL grew faster than the national rate (QC grew way under at +0.6%, and poor NL with another decline -2.6%). It seems to show that QC's share of the economy is large enough to affect the numbers significantly, more than I would have expected. I thought since ON (by far the largest economy), AB (3rd) and BC (4th) were all high the Canadian average would be like 1.7% at least, even the Maritimes all came out higher than the national average. Just seemed strange to me, I thought the higher growth pretty much everywhere would bring up the average, didn't think QC and NL were enough to do this (NL would be negligible, but QC is a major economic force).

This stat made me so curious, so I did some searches, and StatCan did a release in May 2024 as well on GDP:

Gross domestic product by industry: Provinces and territories, 2023

The May release has different numbers than the latest release, so assume they have done revisions or some methodological explanation. Same trend and provincial rankings though, just lower % growth than the latest. But the May one has an interesting section that the Nov release doesn't, it talks about provincial contribution:

Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta were the largest contributors to economic growth in 2023

Ontario (contribution of +0.60 percentage points) was the largest contributor to Canada's economic growth, accounting for almost half of the 1.2% increase in national GDP in 2023.

British Columbia (+0.23 percentage points) was the second-largest contributor to national economic growth, surpassing Alberta (+0.22 percentage points) and well ahead of Saskatchewan (+0.06 percentage points) and Quebec (+0.05 percentage points).

Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.04 percentage points) was the largest drag on national economic output for the third time in six years.

Provincial and territorial contributions to national percentage change, total economic growth, 2022 and 2023, contributions to national % change (in percentage points)
2022 2023
Newfoundland and Labrador -0.022 -0.035
Prince Edward Island 0.010 0.007
Nova Scotia 0.060 0.026
New Brunswick 0.022 0.021
Quebec 0.556 0.045
Ontario 1.413 0.601
Manitoba 0.105 0.041
Saskatchewan 0.228 0.064
Alberta 0.786 0.220
British Columbia 0.535 0.226

Kind of a weird stat, hard to wrap your head around what it means in some ways, but basically showing which provinces contributed to growth and by how much. But it is not an indictaor of a provinces's % share of the economy, that's totally different.

Lastly, poor NL, firmly negative % growth, I didn't know it was back to that. And looking at the years post Covid, 2023 wasn't a blip. 2020 was negative (as expected, most places were), but the 2021 recovery of +0.6% was way below almost everywhere else (except SK, which went negative somehow). 2021 was when places were getting a +5%-6% bump compared the 2020. Maybe NL didn't experienced the same crippling Covid shutdowns that ON or QC did, so their comeback year wasn't as drastic? I have no idea, these are just my random musings, please anyone with more knowledge and insight weight in. But then in 2022, they went back to shrinking (-1.7%), while every other jurisdiction had strong GDP growth (SK for instance more than made up for their -0.9% decline in 2021 by growing +6.0%). But NL went from minimal growth to downright shrinking, at a time when other provinces were strengthening. And then in 2023, accelerating to a -2.6% decline. I have been asleep at the switch evidently, my mind is obviously still thinking like it's 2019 pre-covid, and times were good all over. NL seemed to have a really good 2010s decade, at least that was my perception. Stopped the interprovincial bleeding, stronger oil and gas, more development, immigration.. seemed to be solid to me. Or maybe these are just blips, I think they did have oil shutdowns? Wouldn't have thought that explains it all though. I hope these are just statistics, and the in person reality there isn't as negative.

[kwoldtimer]

Year on year inflation up to 2% in October, from 1.6% in September, despite lower gasoline prices.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Based on the 2021 data and the contraction in 2020 due to the pandemic and over compensation with the surge in growth in 2021 when economies bounced back.

2024 GDP top 10 cities by population (CMA)
This is extrapolated data and so rough it's almost a crime, but I did it just for fun.

Do not come for me haha

Toronto $520 billion
Montreal $280 billion
Vancouver $210 billion
Calgary $125 billion
Edmonton $100 billion
Ottawa $90 billion
Winnipeg $52 billion
Quebec City $57 billion
Hamilton $45 billion
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo $42 billion

[FrAnKs]

^ How come Québec City is not ahead of Winnipeg? : )

[ericmacm]

Thanks, we appreciate the projections even if they are rough estimates.

The disparity in GDP between Toronto and the other 1M+ metro areas is pretty crazy (Toronto’s GDP is nearing double Montreal’s). Fortunately, we are still nowhere near the two-speed economy problem that the UK seems to be having, where London’s GDP is almost 6x the size of its next largest market, Manchester, who’s economy in itself is smaller than both Vancouver and Montreal at the moment.

As for the other metros, it’s interesting to see that KWC could overtake Hamilton soon. Also very interesting that Quebec City could be widening the gap between itself and Winnipeg.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by FrAnKs

^ How come Québec City is not ahead of Winnipeg? : )

It's the GDP of the Top 10 CMA's by population NOT the Top 10 most populated CMAs by GDP.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by isaidso

It's the GDP of the Top 10 CMA's by population NOT the Top 10 most populated CMAs by GDP.

So Quebec City is the only one that outperforms its ranking?

[KnoxfordGuy]

The CMA populations of Quebec City and Winnipeg were so close in 2021. That was an error on my part. Quebec City should be ahead of Winnipeg in both gdp AND population...by 5,000 people haha but I don't want to edit it because I don't want to make the conversation bellow it irrelevant.