VIA Rail network developments

[Richard Eade]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I wasn't suggesting, it's about the airport. Just saying there's only one airport in this project that's a priority to serve.

As for Greenboro, sure, if there's a case the developer will pursue it. I just can't see the case though. Especially when the travel time that determines the market is door-to-door, not just how long is spent on the train itself. And moving to Greenboro simply trades time on the train for time on transit and another transfer to get downtown.

That’s looking at it from an Ottawa point of view. I expect that most of the people paying to ride the fast train between Toronto and Montreal/Quebec will want the trip to be as fast as possible. They won’t care about the extra 20 minutes someone stopping in Ottawa will take to get to their final destination. And I suspect that more customers will want to travel through Ottawa than get off there.

Also, I think that you are, perhaps, giving Total Trip Time a bit too much emphasis. The advertising for the HST will be something like this: “The choice is now yours. Relax on the train for 3 hours, traveling between Toronto and Montreal or spend twice that time white-knuckling it along the crowded 401.”

Because the ‘last mile’ time will vary by where people live within the cities, only the train time can be used in the ads. That is what people will remember. A ‘Swifties’ will think that they can get from Montreal to the concert in Toronto in only 3 hours.

People have a strange sense when it comes to time. Time goes slower when people are waiting for a bus, for instance. OC Transpo says that it is 10-minute walk to the station, and people agree. The extra 3 minutes to descend to the platform don’t seem to be included in the timing.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Can't see your Montreal story, but your Pearson one is talking about restriction at peak holiday season. Most of those travelers have zero interest in taking a flight from Ottawa. The demand for those flights would probably move to Hamilton. Likewise, Montreal traffic could more easily move to St-Hubert as their reliever airport than YOW.

YOW is more likely to lose customers to YUL than gain customers with HSR. Slots will get consolidated and airlines will simply fly fewer frequencies to more destinations with larger airplanes.



The good thing about a private developer is that the private sector is more resistant to scope creep of this sort, which politicians will always inject into most publicly run projects.

On this project, there's literally only one airport that most seem to care about: YUL. If they line gets to Quebec City, maybe YQB will be a suburban station. I would bet money there will be no moving the principal station in Ottawa from what is there now. Unless the developer somehow gets a whole lot of land that they can develop around the station harvest extra value. Can't see that at Greenboro.

I wouldn't be surprised if trains offer a connection to YYZ as well - but likely through a "regular speed" run after Union up to YYZ.

YUL is the highest potential connection since the HSR line will likely run right by it anyway.

Agreed that HSR is likely to hurt YOW quite substantially. Honestly the majority of the purpose of YOW would disappear as hop-flights to YYZ / YTZ and YUL will largely disappear and international connections for further aflung destinations will likely just shift to YUL given the proximity with HSR and a direct connection.

Post HSR, YOW will likely be limited to mostly just domestic flights to locations outside of the corridor.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Richard Eade

That’s looking at it from an Ottawa point of view. I expect that most of the people paying to ride the fast train between Toronto and Montreal/Quebec will want the trip to be as fast as possible. They won’t care about the extra 20 minutes someone stopping in Ottawa will take to get to their final destination. And I suspect that more customers will want to travel through Ottawa than get off there.

Also, I think that you are, perhaps, giving Total Trip Time a bit too much emphasis. The advertising for the HST will be something like this: “The choice is now yours. Relax on the train for 3 hours, traveling between Toronto and Montreal or spend twice that time white-knuckling it along the crowded 401.”

Because the ‘last mile’ time will vary by where people live within the cities, only the train time can be used in the ads. That is what people will remember. A ‘Swifties’ will think that they can get from Montreal to the concert in Toronto in only 3 hours.

People have a strange sense when it comes to time. Time goes slower when people are waiting for a bus, for instance. OC Transpo says that it is 10-minute walk to the station, and people agree. The extra 3 minutes to descend to the platform don’t seem to be included in the timing.

Toronto-Ottawa carries as much or more traffic for VIA today than Toronto-Montreal. So total travel time to downtown Ottawa is not a minor matter. Sure, they'll keep in mind Toronto-Montreal travel times. But they also aren't going to necessarily accept a solution that costs them 5 mins on Toronto-Montreal resulting in 20 mins more for door-to-door on Toronto-Ottawa. That would probably be a net loss for them.

The good thing is that these developers can be trusted to be ruthlessly efficient. And we know they won't be doing dumb things like trying to save a middling airport.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Toronto-Ottawa carries as much or more traffic for VIA today than Toronto-Montreal. So total travel time to downtown Ottawa is not a minor matter. Sure, they'll keep in mind Toronto-Montreal travel times. But they also aren't going to necessarily accept a solution that costs them 5 mins on Toronto-Montreal resulting in 20 mins more for door-to-door on Toronto-Ottawa. That would probably be a net loss for them.

The good thing is that these developers can be trusted to be ruthlessly efficient. And we know they won't be doing dumb things like trying to save a middling airport.

The Toronto-Ottawa train market is a captive market. If they are willing to take a 5 hour train now they aren’t going to refuse to take HSR because it takes 2.5 hours door to door instead of 2.25.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I wouldn't be surprised if trains offer a connection to YYZ as well - but likely through a "regular speed" run after Union up to YYZ.

Putting the terminus at Union is a sub-optimal choice. It should be at YYZ. That is understandably difficult with the development necessary there. Maybe the developer can get Metrolinx and the GTAA onboard once they are rolling. It would be game changing to get on a train in Ottawa and be at YYZ in 3 hrs. Less, if starting, from Fallowfield.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

YUL is the highest potential connection since the HSR line will likely run right by it anyway.

Agreed that HSR is likely to hurt YOW quite substantially. Honestly the majority of the purpose of YOW would disappear as hop-flights to YYZ / YTZ and YUL will largely disappear and international connections for further aflung destinations will likely just shift to YUL given the proximity with HSR and a direct connection.

Post HSR, YOW will likely be limited to mostly just domestic flights to locations outside of the corridor.

Given how many trips, particularly involve backtracking to YYZ, any real air-rail integration at YUL will basically make Ottawa an extended catchment of YUL for long haul. Domestic and Transborder will be fine. Nobody wants to take a 1 hr train ride for a 2-3 hr flight. I am curious what happens with Sun destination flights. It's arguably more competitive to fly larger aircraft more frequently from YUL than to have a full operation at YOW for a small market.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

The Toronto-Ottawa train market is a captive market. If they are willing to take a 5 hour train now they aren’t going to refuse to take HSR because it takes 2.5 hours door to door instead of 2.25.

You have a lot of travel experience. I know that from your posts. That's why comments like these surprise me. You should know as well as anyone, that the market for faster trains is a lot more time sensitive, usually overlapping with air travel. In that market, 15 mins on a 2.5 hr trip has a material impact. And there's no business case for faster service unless they can get a chunk of those who currently fly (who are also the highest yielding and least fare sensitive travelers).

A lot of design decisions will be ruthless tradeoffs. They have a market economic model. And they are looking at what every time saving investment made along the line does to that model. There's no guarantee at all ideas like Greenboro actually net them more. Especially if the cost is high and they can save more time investing that elsewhere.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am curious what happens with Sun destination flights. It's arguably more competitive to fly larger aircraft more frequently from YUL than to have a full operation at YOW for a small market.

Sun market is already very decentralized. Waterloo Region, London, Hamilton, etc. have sun destinations.

[zzptichka]

TGV station at CDG opened in 1994 with a direct 2hr train to Lyon (18 trains per day).

Air passenger traffic only increased its growth at Lyon airport. People just don't like switching modes of travel. I don't see myself booking a train to catch a flight.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You have a lot of travel experience. I know that from your posts. That's why comments like these surprise me. You should know as well as anyone, that the market for faster trains is a lot more time sensitive, usually overlapping with air travel. In that market, 15 mins on a 2.5 hr trip has a material impact. And there's no business case for faster service unless they can get a chunk of those who currently fly (who are also the highest yielding and least fare sensitive travelers).

Yes, but those time sensitive customers are not the existing Via passengers. Those are the existing Porter customers to the Island, of which there are 8 flights on weekdays in a dash 8. The existing Via passengers they are going to get either way.

[zzptichka]

KLM and Air France even tried to make it as smooth as possible with their service from XDS to YUL, so you don't have worry about missed connections, separate bookings, etc. And it still failed.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

TGV station at CDG opened in 1994 with a direct 2hr train to Lyon (18 trains per day).

Air passenger traffic only increased its growth at Lyon airport. People just don't like switching modes of travel. I don't see myself booking a train to catch a flight.

Different situation. Air travel in Europe was also liberalized over the years and they saw the rise of LCCs. We don't really have much of this in Canada. By comparison look at what HSR did to Alitalia in Italy for example.

You may not like changing modes. But given the poor accessibility of YOW and the easy accessibility of Tremblay, good integration at Dorval would definitely make it easier to train to a connection at YUL. Hell, tons of people drive and bus to YUL now. That's nowhere near as comfortable as sitting on a train and checking your bags right in Dorval Train station when you get off.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by zzptichka

KLM and Air France even tried to make it as smooth as possible with their service from XDS to YUL, so you don't have worry about missed connections, separate bookings, etc. And it still failed.

Isn't this service still offered? How exactly has it failed? I'd say it's more telling that this service wasn't scrapped despite AF starting direct service to YOW.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Yes, but those time sensitive customers are not the existing Via passengers. Those are the existing Porter customers to the Island, of which there are 8 flights on weekdays in a dash 8. The existing Via passengers they are going to get either way.

Correct. How do you expect them to get those YTZ-YOW and YTZ-YUL customers without offering compelling value on door-to-door travel time? In Montreal this is easy, because the train can get downtown faster than both the new REM or driving. In Ottawa, it will be station placement that is optimally connected to transit and the 417. Greenboro ain't it.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Correct. How do you expect them to get those YTZ-YOW and YTZ-YUL customers without offering compelling value on door-to-door travel time? In Montreal this is easy, because the train can get downtown faster than both the new REM or driving. In Ottawa, it will be station placement that is optimally connected to transit and the 417. Greenboro ain't it.

It is a zero sun game. Every minute you add chasing downtown Ottawa passengers adds time to Montreal and suburban Ottawa passengers. I can’t see the proponents prioritizing the relatively small Downtown Ottawa-Bishop flight market over the much larger Montreal flight market.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It is a zero sun game. Every minute you add chasing downtown Ottawa passengers adds time to Montreal and suburban Ottawa passengers. I can’t see the proponents prioritizing the relatively small Downtown Ottawa-Bishop flight market over the much larger Montreal flight market.

But travel time is not the only variable. If it was, they would skip Ottawa altogether. It's a multivariate problem where cost and travel time across several markets are being traded off and optimized. Building a whole new station at Greenboro is a cost for what? To offer up worse transit and road accessibility to most of the Ottawa market to save 5 minutes for Montreal bound passengers? Very possible that same money can save 5 minutes elsewhere with less risk and work. That's exactly what they'll be looking at.

Let's see how it turns out. We'll see in a few years what is proposed. My best is that everything inside on the City of Ottawa is going to be a minimum investment and minimum engineering effort. I don't see more than some trenching, double tracking and trade separation. They'll spend billions in the countryside and save hours instead.

[lrt's friend]

The irony that the station was originally going to be placed south of Walkley as part of Gerber Plan. The railways fought against leaving Union and Tremblay became the compromise.

I should be jumping for joy for a Greenboro Station but I do look at the overall picture and Tremblay is an overall better location for the east half of Ottawa.

Ottawa is also a sweet spot for rail between Montreal and Toronto and generates traffic to match. It would be foolish to make Ottawa less accessible to speed up service to Montreal. We need to maximize the current most popular market.

If HSR becomes overwhelmingly successful, then an Ottawa bypass might be considered for express trains at a higher price, but that is way, way down the road, like not this century. This would only happen if overall ridership was predicted to increase further, which means that service would not be significantly curtailed in Ottawa. Ottawa is simply too big of a ridership draw for several reasons.

[Truenorth00]

It will be fantastic for Ottawa. Would effectively turn Ottawa into an exurban employment market of Montreal. Even better access to YUL will help business.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It will be fantastic for Ottawa. Would effectively turn Ottawa into an exurban employment market of Montreal. Even better access to YUL will help business.

No arguments it won`t bring a lot of benefits but I suspect it makes Montreal an exurban market for Ottawa more than the other way around. I don`t know anybody working in Downtown Montreal saying geez I wish I could live in Ottawa (taxes aside) whereas the Montreal expats in Ottawa for Federal Govt jobs would return in a heartbeat. Many did during Covid and some are still coming back 3 days we week though that was a lot more doable with 2 days and only one night a week needed.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

No arguments it won`t bring a lot of benefits but I suspect it makes Montreal an exurban market for Ottawa more than the other way around. I don`t know anybody working in Downtown Montreal saying geez I wish I could live in Ottawa (taxes aside) whereas the Montreal expats in Ottawa for Federal Govt jobs would return in a heartbeat. Many did during Covid and some are still coming back 3 days we week though that was a lot more doable with 2 days and only one night a week needed.

I was thinking of the professional services and consulting markets, which would expand into a single market between the two cities. You're right that some Montreal originating workers would move back. That's great. Improved quality of life for them. But also the Public Service will get a much more competitive pool for a lot of jobs compared to the incestuous and nepotistic job market that is Ottawa. I look forward to it.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I was thinking of the professional services and consulting markets, which would expand into a single market between the two cities. You're right that some Montreal originating workers would move back. That's great. Improved quality of life for them. But also the Public Service will get a much more competitive pool for a lot of jobs compared to the incestuous and nepotistic job market that is Ottawa. I look forward to it.

Agreed. With location of Ottawa`s station skewing which direction is dominant. If a return to downtown downtown or probably even LRT connected Tremblay I think you`d end up with more commuting to Ottawa. Greenboro would make that difficult but make the suburban life, Ontario taxes and direct to downtown Montreal very appealing. Tremblay and downtown would still have attractive LRT options but those locations are also expensive as they are convenient also to downtown Ottawa.

I guess we can skip the negative nellie this is never going to happen conversation as that is exhausted. But related to the ideas the Cons might continue this as they prefer infrastructure over the weekend I was at a party with lots of mid level people from various departments and they all seemed to think the Conservatives will continue the good work they are doing and by implication do cuts somewhere else. Indigenous agenda isn`t political for example and on that one I might agree but some others seemed naïve bordering on delusional (too specific to name). The spending doesn`t ramp up too fast on this project so hopefully they let it continue but that does seem overly optimistic given the savage budgets we are likely to have.