Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

Yes, French is the dominant language of choice for a free and democratic Montreal, and it preserves enough English from location alone that things remain interesting. English dominance doesn't work with the current demographics in anything but an outlandish, extreme scenario (as described above).

If we go by average life expectancy I probably have less time left on this Earth than the time that has elapsed since Bill 101 was adopted in 1977.

Bill 101 definitely changed Montreal profoundly but the change was slow and of course it hasn't really resulted in an "all French" Montreal.

As such I full expect the linguistic standoff, uneasily bilingual situation to persist for the rest of my lifetime.

Barring a huge transformative upheaval like Quebec independence. (See next post for more on this.)

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Yes - the OQLF has been tracking language spoken most often at work and the use of English part or full time outpaces even the growth of the anglophone population here.

The other phenomenon is the rise of the use of English in French public and private schools, outside of the classroom. This is probably even more alarming, as its becoming a sort of social currency to speak it (referencing an article from La Presse).

Honestly, I'm not sure if these things can be legislated away.

Until recently, I was of the opinion that only a sovereign Quebec could reverse these trends. Now I'm no longer certain.

Yes and no.

If you look at countries that were once part of the USSR in some cases the national language which was once subservient to Russian has flourished post-independence.

But those where Russian speakers were a large minority haven't necessarily seen the national language dominate completely.

Ukraine of course is a classic example where Ukrainian has certainly undergone a resurgence in the past 30 years, but Russian is still very present and in some cases dominant in much of the country. Even Zalenskyy himself is a native Russian speaker and only spiffed up his Ukrainian later in life.

Russian is still very present in Latvia and Estonia, though a bit less so in Lithuania.

Of course, none of these languages, not even Ukrainian, has the global, historical and cultural heft of French. So Quebec does have that going for it.

Personally, I'm getting psychologically ready for future Canadian federalist messaging along the lines of "sorry guys, but we can't do anything more for your language, but don't you dare go for independence to save it either!"

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Personally, I'm getting psychologically ready for future Canadian federalist messaging along the lines of "sorry guys, but we can't do anything more for your language, but don't you dare go for independence to save it either!"

You know, having typed out my color revolution premise, I realized that the scenario would have worked much better in 1995 than in 2037, when any "charismatic separatist leader" worth their salt would have long since learned how to navigate such information minefields.

Which actually leads me to become more interested in this subject I really haven't revisited for some time, because I don't know what it would look like next time.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

There is no road to a 1930s-style Anglicized Montreal under current legal and cultural conditions.

Were I an evil Canadian mastermind, though, here is a blueprint for the "Red and White Revolution of 2037" that restores such a scenario.

1. The Quebec independence movement picks up steam under a charismatic leader.

2. There are rumblings in the Anglo press about ethnic nationalism. Outlandish fringe figures are given generous coverage (even funded?). The Americans are briefed.

3. Demonstrations in the lead-up to the third referendum feature some unpleasant scenes along known faultlines (native areas of Quebec, some anti-semitism for old time's sake)

4. Canada is guarded about the terms of the referendum and inconsistent in its communications with Quebec leaders.

5. The referendum is held and it is a victory for Oui. Canada says it is illegitimate for whatever reason. Native disenfranchisement. Voter fraud. Whatever.

6. The massive outpouring of anger that follows culminates in a large demonstration in central Montreal. An atrocity occurs. One with an obvious narrative.

7. The US and Canadian press are massively inflamed. Unidirectional. The Americans have been prepped through diplomatic channels and with much emphasis on natural resources and issues at the New York border. Hitler is in Quebec.

8. Continued unrest in Montreal is contained by a military presence with assistance from the National Guards of neighboring states. The Quebec government is isolated in Quebec City. This circumstance builds to the point that a provisional government is established in Montreal and the surrounding area to protect the human rights of minorities and natives and preserve the normal functioning of the economy.

9. The provisional government is flatly liberal and states that it gives no preference to any language, cultural group, religion or anything else.

10. There is continued unrest in Montreal for an indefinite period.

11. Royal Bank answers the phone in English.

There's a much simpler road to that result:

1) Canada keeps importing crazy volumes of FNSs per year;

2) Quebec doesn't dare vote for sovereignty while that window is still open;

3) Royal Bank answers the phone in English.

[New Brisavoine]

Some interesting stats from Encyclopedia Britannica 1911.

The anglophone population of Montreal and suburbs in 1901 was 130,000 people. The population of Toronto and suburbs was 238,000 people. So even in 1901, Toronto was already the undisputed metropolis of the Anglophones in Canada.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

You know, having typed out my color revolution premise, I realized that the scenario would have worked much better in 1995 than in 2037, when any "charismatic separatist leader" worth their salt would have long since learned how to navigate such information minefields.

Which actually leads me to become more interested in this subject I really haven't revisited for some time, because I don't know what it would look like next time.

Your scenario ends with Montreal being a kind of Beirut of the mid 21st century.

I think that one thing that precludes that is that contrary to the various belligerent groups at play in Beirut starting in the late 20th century, the irredentist groups in Montreal (anglophones and those who have merged with them) would have good attractive options nearby to easily move to.

I'd expect a fairly large exodus of these people out of Montreal and Quebec quite some time before anyone ever started talking about the need to stay and fight*.

(*However one wants to define "fight".)

[Acajack]

This discussion got me thinking how Quebec independence would probably lead to a huge economic boom in Ontario in particular.

That is unless Canada-sans-Québec did something stupidly retaliatory that would involve cutting their nose off to spite their face, and that Ontario-based Kellogg's, Magna or TD ended up no longer being able to sell corn flakes, auto parts or banking services in the new République du Québec.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This discussion got me thinking how Quebec independence would probably lead to a huge economic boom in Ontario in particular.

That is unless Canada-sans-Québec did something stupidly retaliatory that would involve cutting their nose off to spite their face, and that Ontario-based Kellogg's, Magna or TD ended up no longer being able to sell corn flakes, auto parts or banking services in the new République du Québec.

I often wonder why they haven't yet built a statue of René Lévesque or at the very least a bronze bust of Jacques Parizeau on the front lawn of Queen's Park. The Ontarians could even joke that Quebec paid for it.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

I often wonder why they haven't yet built a statue of René Lévesque or at the very least a bronze bust of Jacques Parizeau on the front lawn of Queen's Park. The Ontarians could even joke that Quebec paid for it.

It would most certainly be a lot messier at the outset, but in the final analysis the economic impact on Ontario would likely surpass what was observed in the 70s and 80s.

(Provided of course that Ontario's domestic market didn't shrink by 25% overnight due to a new hard border with Quebec.)

[New Brisavoine]

Anglophone population of the Island of Montréal (472 km²) (API Montréal) vs population of Metropolitan Toronto (630 km²).

1871:
API Montréal: 57,200
Metropolitan Toronto: 75,900

1901:
API Montréal: 130,300 (+128%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 238,100 (+214%)

1921:
API Montréal: 284,600 (+118%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 611,400 (+157%)

1941:
API Montréal: 417,700 (+47%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 951,500 (+56%)

1951:
API Montréal: 477,900 (+14%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 1,176,600 (+24%)

1961:
API Montréal: 664,100 (+39%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 1,824,500 (+55%)

Note that all these figures for the Anglophones of Montréal are very generous since I've assigned all the "non-ethnic French" population to the Anglophone community (i.e. it assumes that 100% of the non-British immigrants integrated in the Anglophone community).

Despite this slight bias, we can see that even as far back as 1871 there were more Anglophones living in Toronto than in Montréal.

I think Montréal was only briefly the Anglophone metropolitan magnet of Canada in the early 19th century, before Toronto took off, but then back in the early 19th century most people lived in the countryside anyway, even the Anglophones, so "metropolitan magnet" is a very relative concept back then. When Canada eventually became an urban society, Montréal was never THE Anglophone metropolis of Canada, it's quite clear in the stats.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

(e.g. Danish people don't really care if their waiter on Nyhavn is a unilingual Australian).

That's not really true. It's one of those clichés, but there've been several articles in the European press about how Scandinavians are sick and tired of service people not talking their languages. Ditto in Amsterdam.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

And those tensions probably did play a part in Leonard Cohen and Mordecai Richler emerging in that specific era of Montreal and not somewhere else.

I don't dispute that something would be lost if Montreal became more francophone and way less anglophone, but I think that even with aggressive frenchification an English language presence would still persist at a fairly significant level in the city no matter what.

As I think you said, it won't be 1930 or 1970 Montreal, but it won't be 1996 Quebec City either.

Worth noting that for all the talk about Bill 101 destroying English and bilingualism in Montreal, it's actually led to a fairly stable bilingual situation in the city in 2024.

Independence could alter the dynamic though. I could see Montréal becoming much more French-speaking after independence, just as Helsinki became much more Finnish-speaking after Finland was severed from Sweden (by the Russians, ironically).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's not really true. It's one of those clichés, but there've been several articles in the European press about how Scandinavians are sick and tired of service people not talking their languages. Ditto in Amsterdam.

Yeah. I don't know how things will turn out in Northern Europe but in my experience it's the kind of thing people don't care about - until they do.

There is often a tipping point that things arrive at when it comes to societal change.

Sort of how like just a year or two ago, almost no one in the Greater Toronto Area except the odd yahoo was questioning the wonderfulness of diversity.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's not really true. It's one of those clichés, but there've been several articles in the European press about how Scandinavians are sick and tired of service people not talking their languages. Ditto in Amsterdam.

That sentiment is of course there but it's not dominant. It is usually tourists coming from a smaller town to the capital who are put off. I wouldn't say people love it, but the climate is not similar to Montreal. I am speaking from direct experience having lived in Montreal, Copenhagen and Stockholm. No idea about Amsterdam.

It is worth noting that this only really comes up in really touristic areas like Nyhavn or Gamla Stan. I have never heard an Anglophone server in Södermalm or Vasastan and it would be strange to hear it where real Stockholmers live their lives. But mixed in with the tour guides and boat hawkers and ice cream guys, it flies.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Yes - the OQLF has been tracking language spoken most often at work and the use of English part or full time outpaces even the growth of the anglophone population here.

The other phenomenon is the rise of the use of English in French public and private schools, outside of the classroom. This is probably even more alarming, as its becoming a sort of social currency to speak it (referencing an article from La Presse).

Honestly, I'm not sure if these things can be legislated away.

Until recently, I was of the opinion that only a sovereign Quebec could reverse these trends. Now I'm no longer certain.

It is not 100% certain that an independent Québec can reverse the trend, but it's 100% certain that a non-independent Québec cannot. It all goes back to the point often made: the French language probably cannot survive long-term in Québec if they don't become an independent country at some point. Some are in denial about it (especially the Anglophones, which is natural since dominant groups usually tend to dismiss or overlook the challenges faced by dominated groups), but if you look at it from far-away it's quite obvious.

Of course it's not something that will happen overnight, so most people won't even realize it's happening, because these are slow processes. But if we had a time machine and could come back to the still Canadian province of Québec 150 years in the future... well, I wouldn't bet I could still use my French with the people living then and there.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It would most certainly be a lot messier at the outset, but in the final analysis the economic impact on Ontario would likely surpass what was observed in the 70s and 80s.

(Provided of course that Ontario's domestic market didn't shrink by 25% overnight due to a new hard border with Quebec.)

I really think Ontario soars in the event of Québec sovereignty. It goes from a 40% share of Canada's population to more than 50% overnight.

It would be fair to assume that most of Montreal's non Québec-Inc. head offices transfer to Toronto, as well as a large share of migrants who choose to leave Québec.

Québec and Ontario will still trade too - potentially on terms favourable to Ontario after Québec negotiates its exit against a larger country. The rhetoric usually indicates that a sovereign Québec would want to partner in some fashion with Canada, so a hard border might not occur.

Lastly, I assume Canada would shed itself of any French-language requirements once 90% of its francophones leave. It wouldn't be immediate, but maybe 10 years down the road. I assume that this would provide an small economic bump, as the duplicity of 'doing the things' in French and English would vanish, to the joy of a great many.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

It is not 100% certain that an independent Québec can reverse the trend, but it's 100% certain that a non-independent Québec cannot. It all goes back to the point often made: the French language probably cannot survive long-term in Québec if they don't become an independent country at some point. Some are in denial about it (especially the Anglophones, which is natural since dominant groups usually tend to dismiss or overlook the challenges faced by dominated groups), but if you look at it from far-away it's quite obvious.

Bit of a contradiction here

Time will most likely tell, but I tend to agree.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Some are in denial about it (especially the Anglophones, which is natural since dominant groups usually tend to dismiss or overlook the challenges faced by dominated groups),

It's more accurate that they don't give a shit.

Anything that sounds like denial on their part is in fact mostly "strategy".

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

I really think Ontario soars in the event of Québec sovereignty. It goes from a 40% share of Canada's population to more than 50% overnight.

It would be fair to assume that most of Montreal's non Québec-Inc. head offices transfer to Toronto, as well as a large share of migrants who choose to leave Québec.

Québec and Ontario will still trade too - potentially on terms favourable to Ontario after Québec negotiates its exit against a larger country. The rhetoric usually indicates that a sovereign Québec would want to partner in some fashion with Canada, so a hard border might not occur.

It's sometimes mentioned that Ontario's businesses would lose around a quarter of their market if they no longer had access to Quebec. This is based on Quebec's approximate share of the Canadian population, but due to proximity and long-standing linkages it's probably even a bit more than that that is at stake.

When it comes to stuff from the ROC, Quebec isn't supplied from BC and Manitoba. It's supplied from Ontario.

A decent chunk of Canada's economy is regional. So while this means that Quebec for the West might be less important to their economies than population share would indicate, this means that for Ontario it's even more important.

Add to this as you point out that Ontario in Canada-sans-Québec would now be 50% of the country's population, what Ontario wants and needs in terms of a trade relationship with Quebec is what Canada is going to end up getting.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Anglophone population of the Island of Montréal (472 km²) (API Montréal) vs population of Metropolitan Toronto (630 km²).

1871:
API Montréal: 57,200
Metropolitan Toronto: 75,900

1901:
API Montréal: 130,300 (+128%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 238,100 (+214%)

1921:
API Montréal: 284,600 (+118%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 611,400 (+157%)

1941:
API Montréal: 417,700 (+47%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 951,500 (+56%)

1951:
API Montréal: 477,900 (+14%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 1,176,600 (+24%)

1961:
API Montréal: 664,100 (+39%)
Metropolitan Toronto: 1,824,500 (+55%)

Note that all these figures for the Anglophones of Montréal are very generous since I've assigned all the "non-ethnic French" population to the Anglophone community (i.e. it assumes that 100% of the non-British immigrants integrated in the Anglophone community).

Despite this slight bias, we can see that even as far back as 1871 there were more Anglophones living in Toronto than in Montréal.

I think Montréal was only briefly the Anglophone metropolitan magnet of Canada in the early 19th century, before Toronto took off, but then back in the early 19th century most people lived in the countryside anyway, even the Anglophones, so "metropolitan magnet" is a very relative concept back then. When Canada eventually became an urban society, Montréal was never THE Anglophone metropolis of Canada, it's quite clear in the stats.

I don't think Montreal was THE magnet for Anglo-Canadians during our history. But I do think it was at one time way more a decent magnet comme les autres than it has been over the past 50 years.