Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark
It was considered a ‘hail mary’ shot by Japan, hoping to cripple the US fleet which was gathered in one spot (a poor strategic move), to try to get the US defeated and out of the picture quickly. However, even Yamamoto, who had spent some time living in the US previously, had miscalculated their manufacturing capabilities and their ability to mobilize their industries quickly in response, and thus sealed their own fate on that December day in 1941.
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Actually Yamamoto was opposed to attacking the US, as he knew his navy couldn't match the US navy and its industrial potential. The decision was taken by the hardliners from the land army, the infamous Kwantung Army which ravaged China and had already launched several coups in Japan and killed several prime ministers and ministers. The emperor was for a long time not in favor of attacking the US, but in the weeks before Pearl Harbor he was eventually won over by the hardliners around Tojo.
Their reasoning was: a- we can't go on for much longer with the US oil embargo, we will have to stop all military operations in China by the beginning of 1942 at the latest without oil, b- we need the oil fields from the Dutch East Indies to continue the war, c- if we seize these oil fields, we can continue our war in China, BUT the US will most certainly attack us (false premise I think, since the US were very isolationist at the time, and I'm not sure a Japanese attack on the Dutch East Indies alone, without attacking the Philippines, would have pushed the US into war), so d- since the US are going to attack us anyway, we might as well cripple their navy potential by attacking their major vessels in Pearl Harbor. They knew they couldn't destroy the US navy entirely, and they knew they couldn't match the US over the long term, but they thought (the hardliners around Tojo) they could destroy enough of the US navy to have a free hand in East Asia for at least one or two years, by which time they'd be in a favorable position to impose a general peace in their favor.
Not only I think they were wrong about "the US is going to attack us anyway", but above all they were extremely deluded in thinking that after having attacked the US they could expect to negotiate a peace or some sort of armistice in a position of force. They did not realize the depth of US pride and patriotism.