Quote:
Originally Posted by Acajack
I have always envisioned that a scenario where France retained much of present-day Canada would have yielded a colder francophone version of Argentina here. Hopefully with a better economy and saner governance.
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The question is how long France could have held it. If the Seven Years War had ended with France keeping Canada (for example by exchanging it with the sugar islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe which the UK desired), the colonists in the 13 colonies would have been furious, and they would soon have engineered a new war with France, dragging their British metropolis in it. Would France have managed to keep Canada in that new war?
Deep down, what was needed was a reorientation of French public finances towards the Navy. This is what happened after 1760, due precisely to the trauma of losing Canada and India (more due to the trauma of losing India than losing Canada to be fair... the French governor in India was used as a scapegoat and sentenced to death and executed in Paris, whereas the French governor of Canada, who was much more guilty than the French governor in India, saved his life, which tells you all you need to know about how *little* the French authorities valued Canada).
But then this massive increase in French naval investment happened because of that trauma. If France had kept Canada at the end of the Seven Years War, I don't know whether there would have been this massive increase in the French Navy budget and strength (which allowed us to defeat the Brits in the War of American Independence).
But let's suppose this massive increase in French Navy budget would have taken place, that means the next war in the 1780s would have been pretty big, and costly, for both sides. And even if we hadn't lost Canada in that new war in the 1780s, the American colonists would have started another one in the 1800s, etc. I mean short of invading and conquering the UK (an idea which the government of Louis XVI toyed with, then decided to shelve), we would never have been at peace as long as we kept Canada.
So the question is, how numerous the French Canadians would have been by the time we finally lost Canada (as would have surely happened sooner or later).
Now of course in a world where France refocuses all its military efforts towards the navy like the Brits, we can defeat them long term (the French economy was 2 or 3 times larger than the British economy back then), and keep Canada for many decades after the 1760s. In that scenario, I think at some point there would have been a renewed wave of emigration from France to Canada, when Canada reached a point where it became a large and prosperous enough economy. In the 1740s-1750s already there was more and more interest in Canada in France, and more and more businesses trading and investing there. This would surely have ballooned at some point, perhaps in the early 19th century, then it's possible half a million Frenchmen would have moved to Canada, as happened in Algeria.
The question then becomes: what's the extent of that Canada? Does it still include today's US Midwest? That means waging many wars with the American colonists to keep it. And when does it decide to ask for self-governance from France, and perhaps secede entirely?