I think Holt's Liberals have 23 solidly red seats at the moment, along with 5 others that are likely leaning their way.
Saint John West and Saint John East may be leaning PC, but I think Kim Costain is very much
not seen as the more serious candidate compared to Kate Wilcott, but she will definitely need some help from strategic voters and people who sat out 2020 in order to win the West Saint John seat for the Liberals.
The Faytene effect could very well help Alston defeat Savoie in Saint John East.
With high enough voter turnout the Liberals could end up with 28-30 seats, and the Greens could end up with 3-4 seats. The Greens may want to refocus their campaign in Fredericton to the two seats they have solid chances at winning.