Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad
I think Ernie Steeves has a fair chance in Moncton Northwest. He might not be the brightest light on the tree, but, he is well liked, well known, has been a long term member of the house, and is a prominent cabinet minister. The Liberals chose a candidate with no profile to run against him. I have no idea who she is.
Also, I think Moncton South is safely PC as well. Greg Turner is a well known and well liked local businessman, former city councilor and provincial cabinet minister. He is also not socially conservative. Again, the Liberals have chosen a candidate with no profile to run against him.
The rest of Moncton will likely be Liberal as well as the Dieppe ridings. Riverview should be safely PC.
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How educated and informed on the candidates do you honestly think the average voter is? You have over 36,000 posts on a forum pertaining to local development news in Moncton and New Brunswick… you simply can’t expect the average voter to think the same way as you do, let alone first time voters and new Canadians. I don't need to remind you that Moncton's population has been booming for the past four years. This is a huge variable for the election that 338 model just can't accurately account for. Voter turnout could end up being the highest since 1999.
Think of how many new people have moved to Moncton over the last 4 years that don’t think even slightly the same way you do regarding having to “know” candidates based on their reputation in town, etc. Just because they don't run in the same social circles as you, doesn't mean they have no profile, don't paint these candidates with such a wide brush, because
you don't happen to know them.
Contrary to your "no profile" claim,
Tania Sodhi is a popular, well known, local realtor who manages a daycare. She’s also a fresh, new face to NB Politics, in a city with some the the freshest faces in Canada. She would also be the first Indo-Canadian MLA in the history of NB, and last time I checked, there's a lot of Indo-Canadians that have moved to Moncton in the last four years. According to the Census there were only 330 South Asians in Moncton in 2016, by 2021 there were more than 2,310. Considering Moncton's population has been absolutely exploding in the past four years, and Indo-Canadians are the number one newcomer group in Canada, I think its safe to say there's around double the number of South Asians voters in Moncton in 2024 as there were in 2020... and that bodes well for Tania Sodhi making history to become the first Indo-Canadian MLA in the history of New Brunswick.
Steeves, on the other hand, is an establishment figure who's been minister of finance for the past 6 years under a Higgs government that put their preference for surpluses ahead of peoples live, as they've starved the healthcare system of much needed investment, and done next to nothing to deal with the home affordability and homelessness crises plaguing Moncton and other NB cities. Steeve might stand a fair chance to get a lot of the same voters he got to vote for him last time, but good luck attracting new voters when you're such an establishment figure, when many people see healthcare, housing, homelessness, and broken promises on tax reform as some of the biggest areas of neglect, inaction, corruption, and downright subterfuge on behalf of the Higgs government.
As for Greg Turner's seat in Moncton South being "safely PC". Hardly.
Local businessman, former city councillor… sounds like an establishment fossil that will do absolutely nothing to challenge Higgs on the need to fix the healthcare system, bring about tax reform, or deal with the homelessness and housing crises. He's not nearly as qualified as his opponent, who could very well end up becoming a cabinet minister in the Holt government. You claim Claire Johnson has “no profile”,
, perhaps you should take a look at her actual profile?
Johnson has her PHD in Population Health and is smartly making healthcare issues central to her campaign efforts. Even if both her and Dr. John Dornan get elected, Claire Johnson might be the Dr. best suited for Minister of Health. Same thing with Greg Turner as I said for Steeves, he's going to have a good chance at getting a lot of the same people who voted for him in 2020 to vote for him again, but I don't see him have a lot of success in convincing new voters, and informed voters who want to see action on healthcare, housing, homelessness, tax reform, and the myriad of other issues that the Higgs government have done a poor job with. It's just not logical.
One other
major thing to take into account. Ernie Steeves was
nearly defeated by a female candidate in 2018, and both he and Greg Turner defeated male Liberal candidates in the 2020 election. These two old men are now facing two younger, female candidates, who have a lot more appeal to new voters, especially first time voters. The Liberals have a strong opportunity to sweep the city of Moncton, because Greg Turner and Ernie Steeves have very little to actually run on to entice city voters to vote for them over the Liberals.
Holt is offering a new deal for New Brunswick's cities and promising comprehensive tax reform. She's promising to make better investments in healthcare to create better outcomes for New Brunswickers, she's promising to better fund public education, she's offering up a plan to get more housing built through a targeted elimination of the HST on new builds, and she's committing to rent caps to make housing in New Brunswick more affordable and stable. Higgs is offering vague promises about parental rights, and committing to a 2% reduction of the HST. He hasn't offered up any plans on healthcare, the need for tax reform, housing, homelessness, or the real issues impacting the public school system. Higgs is making it very difficult for his candidates to appeal to city voters, and that spells disaster for the PCs in Moncton Northwest and Moncton South.
I think Sodhi and Johnson are poised to swing these two Moncton seats for the Liberals, partially thanks to the rapidly changing demographics of New Brunswick's cities, but also thanks to their candidates and party running a campaign based around real issues, and not controversial distractions like their PC opponents are running on. Vitality, Hope, and Vision can be far more powerful electoral forces than divisive partisan politics.
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The PC's struggle to win over city voters will cost them the election.
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