Canada's Quiet Decline

[lio45]

Originally Posted by niwell

Ireland is another country with an acute housing crisis, particularly in the rental market. Even high earners are affected - my wife’s coworker (remote multinational) had to live with her parents for a few years despite making well into 6 figures. There was just nothing available, even in her small town a few hours from Dublin (she was open to anywhere). There’s a reason a lot of Irish workers I’ve met in Toronto are reticent to go back.

That’s hilarious: they’d like to go home but they instead stay in Toronto because Toronto housing is affordable

[niwell]

Originally Posted by lio45

That’s hilarious: they’d like to go home but they instead stay in Toronto because Toronto housing is affordable

I mean the irony is kinda hilarious, but in all seriousness Toronto rents aren't really *that* bad (though getting worse). It's purchasing that's a nightmare - we've become one of the cities where new mortgages are well in excess of what you can get in rent. Plus if you've lived in a place for a while or even moved during COVID you're likely paying significantly less than "market" rents. Nobody in my close circle is, that's for sure. The semi-detached next to me actually sold at the peak and was reno'd from 3 - 5 units, each of which are going for significantly more than the previous rates. But given the cost of the building and renos (they gutted it) I have no idea how it was a good business decision! It really doesn't add up.

Ireland also has a bit of the Berlin thing going on where even if you can afford it, good luck, because anything coming on market has hundreds of applicants. If you have a good place already you hold onto it for dear life.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by niwell

I mean the irony is kinda hilarious, but in all seriousness Toronto rents aren't really *that* bad

I don't know how you can say that. I currently have a 2 bedroom 2 floor apartment/loft in Riverside. It's the largest unit in my row of townhomes, not massive but still a nice space. For what i pay if I were to move out and try to find something in the same area for the same rent I'd be lucky to find a bachelor. The unit 3 doors down went up for rent last fall and it's a 1 bedroom, the asking rent was $950 more then what I pay.

You don't start seeing rents drop unless you are a good 25 minutes by transit out of the core now. Or if you are willing to move into a basement unit.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

I don't know how you can say that. I currently have a 2 bedroom 2 floor apartment/loft in Riverside. It's the largest unit in my row of townhomes, not massive but still a nice space. For what i pay if I were to move out and try to find something in the same area for the same rent I'd be lucky to find a bachelor. The unit 3 doors down went up for rent last fall and it's a 1 bedroom, the asking rent was $950 more then what I pay.

You don't start seeing rents drop unless you are a good 25 minutes by transit out of the core now. Or if you are willing to move into a basement unit.

Wasn't saying they are good, but rather relative to the cost to buy (the truly inaccessible number) and in reference to what the average person is paying. They are objectively high and going up far too quickly, but I also know people that paid more in Boston circa 2004 for less space than I do now.

[lio45]

Yep, niwell is correct in pointing out that cap rates (the metric that best measures speculation) are really low in places like Vancouver and Toronto.

(The best measure of the demand for a roof over one's head is rents, not real estate prices. The ratio between the two is a good measure of how speculative a given market is.)

[Xelebes]

In the talk about Canada's position with relation to the British position, this episode touches on it:

• Video Link

[SpongeG]

this fits best in here

Lack of ambition in Canada creating '600-pound beaver in the room': Shopify president

Tara Deschamps
The Canadian Press
Staff
Published Oct. 1, 2024

He says the lack of ambition has left Canadian companies with a reputation for being acquired while their U.S. competitors grow more dominant by taking them over.

Finkelstein instead wants Canadian companies to focus on striving for more rather than settling for being acquired.

He also adds that he wants more companies to be headquartered in Canada rather than the country being treated like a branch plant for bigger organizations.

Finkelstein's remarks came in a conversation with astronaut Chris Hadfield during the opening night of the Elevate technology conference in Toronto, where "Dragons' Den" star Arlene Dickinson and Olympic champion breaker Phil Wizard also took the stage.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/lack...dent-1.7058665

[Truenorth00]

^ That will require Canadians to pay more in personal taxes and make room for corporate tax cuts. Or to accept substantial cuts in services. Yet, our MPs are cutting to add $16B actually to the social spending tab.

Also, the Americans are running some absolutely massive deficits with no hope of a balanced budget at all. They are just spending it more wisely than our government (mostly on defence, social security and Medicare) in ways that stimulate development and circulate money.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ That will require Canadians to pay more in personal taxes and make room for corporate tax cuts. Or to accept substantial cuts in services. Yet, our MPs are cutting to add $16B actually to the social spending tab.

Also, the Americans are running some absolutely massive deficits with no hope of a balanced budget at all. They are just spending it more wisely than our government (mostly on defence, social security and Medicare) in ways that stimulate development and circulate money.

More wisely?!? I'm not sure that most Americans would agree with that.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Loco101

More wisely?!? I'm not sure that most Americans would agree with that.

Weird comment given where the polls are in the two countries. The American incumbent is currently leading in a neck and neck election to be re-elected, while the Liberals are headed to a historic defeat and maybe even a third (or fourth) place finish.

These graphs look pretty different to me:


Source

vs


Source

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

More wisely?!? I'm not sure that most Americans would agree with that.

Yes more wisely. Their Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are actually generating real industrial gains. We are barely funding a few battery plants while not developing the rest of the supply chain. And for better or worse, their large military spending has substantial benefits. Notably heavy R&D, sustainment of domestic industry and the generation of hundreds of thousands of skilled workers every year. I've said this before. But it's no accident that Silicon Valley is in California, the state with a third of the USN's nuclear fleet, the air force's test pilot school, the USN and USAF test ranges, the USN's Graduate School, their main West Coast space complex and several federal defence and energy labs. All those folks need somewhere to work when they leave the military or public service. And they are highly skilled. Heck, the largest employers in SV are still defence contractors. And Stanford was called the R&D lab of the CIA. So yeah, their defence spending delivers dividends that most of the rest of the world just can't comprehend.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yes more wisely. Their Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are actually generating real industrial gains. We are barely funding a few battery plants while not developing the rest of the supply chain. And for better or worse, their large military spending has substantial benefits. Notably heavy R&D, sustainment of domestic industry and the generation of hundreds of thousands of skilled workers every year. I've said this before...

...So yeah, their defence spending delivers dividends that most of the rest of the world just can't comprehend.

I'm the first person to say that Canadian corporations are to blame for our low productivity rates and lack of innovation, and government spending money on seniors rather than on future generations, and keeping wages and productivity low by importing millions of unskilled immigrants is exactly the worst thing to do right now.

That said, the US is just in an exceptional position that no other country is in, and we can't emulate them no matter how hard we try.

They can run enormous deficits because they have the world's reserve currency, and that reserve currency is backed by the world's most powerful military. So you run a deficit to outspend everyone else on defence to allow your military to be stronger than everyone else which allows you to run a deficit.

One of the positive side effects is that, once in a blue moon, you develop a technological game changer that helps your companies gain a huge edge over their competition around the world, and your strength perpetuates.

We can't play that game.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I'm the first person to say that Canadian corporations are to blame for our low productivity rates and lack of innovation, and government spending money on seniors rather than on future generations, and keeping wages and productivity low by importing millions of unskilled immigrants is exactly the worst thing to do right now.

That said, the US is just in an exceptional position that no other country is in, and we can't emulate them no matter how hard we try.

They can run enormous deficits because they have the world's reserve currency, and that reserve currency is backed by the world's most powerful military. So you run a deficit to outspend everyone else on defence to allow your military to be stronger than everyone else which allows you to run a deficit.

One of the positive side effects is that, once in a blue moon, you develop a technological game changer that helps your companies gain a huge edge over their competition around the world, and your strength perpetuates.

We can't play that game.

Absolutely true. The USA is the New Rome. It is Rome in the first century AD, near the apex of it's power. This is not going to change for some time, but, sooner or later, a "third century crisis" will occur, and the US will fall from grace.

In the meantime, the best we can hope for is to remain a close client state of theirs, so that we can at least get a few table scraps from them for our own economy.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yes more wisely. Their Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act are actually generating real industrial gains. We are barely funding a few battery plants while not developing the rest of the supply chain. And for better or worse, their large military spending has substantial benefits. Notably heavy R&D, sustainment of domestic industry and the generation of hundreds of thousands of skilled workers every year. I've said this before. But it's no accident that Silicon Valley is in California, the state with a third of the USN's nuclear fleet, the air force's test pilot school, the USN and USAF test ranges, the USN's Graduate School, their main West Coast space complex and several federal defence and energy labs. All those folks need somewhere to work when they leave the military or public service. And they are highly skilled. Heck, the largest employers in SV are still defence contractors. And Stanford was called the R&D lab of the CIA. So yeah, their defence spending delivers dividends that most of the rest of the world just can't comprehend.

Yes, and the fact is that economic opportunity of this nature is way more important to people than government balance sheets.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes, and the fact is that economic opportunity of this nature is way more important to people than government balance sheets.

And this is where the power of the USA comes into play, especially it's status of having the world's reserve currency. The US has way more leverage to buy it's way out of an economic crisis than we do.

Canada has to mind it's fiscal balance sheet in a way that the Americans can easily ignore. The US is the centre of the universe and intends to remain so.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

We can't play that game.

The very least we can do is at least bring R&D spending up to the G7 average, and at least encourage Canadian companies to expand globally.

Canada actively disincentives international expansions and R&D investment, it's very evident once you deep dive into Canada's taxation regime. The Canadian government punitively attacks the former, and the R&D credit system is extremely convoluted that doesn't encourage successful commercialisation (if anything some would say it rewards failure).

Residential real estate uber alles and that's where all of the Canadian government's priorities lie.

[1overcosc]

Another banger of a piece from Lombardi:

https://thehub.ca/2024/10/03/eric-lo...ption-problem/

Canada can no longer afford to ignore its ‘soft corruption’ problem

Beneath the tranquil veneer of Canada’s pristine landscapes and polite society lurks a troubling reality. A silent decay gnaws at the foundations of our institutions—a “soft corruption” that, while invisible to the untrained eye, is slowly eroding the foundations of our prosperity. This isn’t the headline-grabbing bribery or scandalous embezzlement you might expect; it’s more insidious, woven deep into the bureaucratic tapestry we trusted to serve us. It’s a corruption that dons the mask of procedure, cloaked in legality, yet it siphons resources away from the people and into the pockets of self-selected, well-connected insiders.

Consider Toronto’s recent announcement of the West Toronto Railpath extension—a modest 2.1-kilometer bike and pedestrian trail along a Metrolinx-owned rail corridor. The projected cost? A jaw-dropping $149 million. That’s $71 million per kilometre, or $71,000 per metre.

...

This relentless spiral of escalating costs and diminishing returns isn’t just an unfortunate series of local mishaps; it’s a national crisis buffeted by a culture of “soft corruption” that has become endemic. If left unchecked, it threatens to cripple Canada’s long-term ability to build the essential public infrastructure that underpins economic growth and public well-being, turning us into a country that can’t afford to build its own future.

How did we get here? The rise of “process parasites”—consultants, lawyers, planners, and other paid stakeholders—has embedded unnecessary complexity into every stage of building just about anything. They’ve turned nice-to-have activities into legal necessities, often influencing regulations to mandate their involvement. Cozy relationships with procurement departments lead to unscrutinized deals at unreasonable costs. While overt corruption may be rare, the system is engineered to justify waste as the “cost of doing business,” enriching connected insiders.

Few sectors are more burdened by this “cottage industry tax” than in housing. An Altus Group report reveals that in the Greater Toronto Area, every city takes over a year to approve new housing projects, with the fastest averaging 13 months. Developers face dozens of report requirements that vary by municipality. In Caledon, getting approval to build multi-family housing demands over two years and nearly 100 different reports—from heritage impact assessments to frivolous sun and shadow studies. These obligations keep consultants employed but add little value, escalating costs amid a housing crisis.

[MolsonExport]

No doubt this is a huge problem. The blame (and possible solutions) lies at all levels of government, federal, provincial, and municipal.

And unfortunately, this is nothing new. I grew up in Quebec, during a time of two examples of extremely costly White elephants (the Montreal Olympics and the "Big Owe", and Mirabel Airport). On the subject of White elephants, we had a thread: https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=252904

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by theman23

Weird comment given where the polls are in the two countries. The American incumbent is currently leading in a neck and neck election to be re-elected, while the Liberals are headed to a historic defeat and maybe even a third (or fourth) place finish.

These graphs look pretty different to me:


Source

vs


Source

Not sure who Silver Bulletin is but that chart looks optimistic to me, as much as I hope it's accurate. I still think Harris will win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is anybody's guess at this stage.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Another banger of a piece from Lombardi:

https://thehub.ca/2024/10/03/eric-lo...ption-problem/

Funny, I was just looking at the agenda for next weeks St. John's "Committee of the Whole" meeting and there was shadow/shade report for a purposed apartment building included.

I agree with much of what he said. For decades, all levels of government have supposedly championing 'cutting red tape' and de-regulation, when it actual fact they've made getting something approved more complicated, requiring outside 'experts' and reports, and thusly more expensive. I guess more regulation is fine when someone can make money at it.

Couple that with NIMBYs it's no wondering we're in a housing crisis.