New Brunswick Election

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Talked to a friend who is a Liberal Candidate the other day. They said that door knocking was going well and most people were respectful and polite even if they weren't supporters. There is, however, a certain (reasonably sized) group that fall firmly into the "F*#K Trudeau" camp.

If the provincial Liberals lose on Oct 21 I think there is only one person largely responsible (and he is not running here in NB)

For some one who goes of their way to make the distinction between the King of Canada and King of the UK, I assume you’re informed enough to realize the distinct responsibilities and obligations of the three levels of government. Canadian provinces are generally considered to hold far more power and autonomy than American states. Likewise, the Canadian Federal government isn’t nearly as powerful as the US federal government.


Imo, the top issues of this election (in descending order)

Healthcare
Tax Reform
Affordable Housing/Rising Rents
Public Education
Homelessness and Addictions

Higgs would like to make these the top issues of the election in descending order:

F@&$ Trudeau/Blame Carbon Tax for everything
Parental Rights/Transgenderism in Schools
2% cut to the HST
The Addictions Epidemic
Continued Austerity to pay down the debt

If we look at key, serious issues like the tax code, healthcare delivery, senior care, housing, public education, or homelessness… these are all issues of provincial responsibility. The federal government is responsible for funding provincial healthcare systems, and Blaine Higgs put our federal healthcare funding at risk. NB spends less per citizen on healthcare than any other province in Canada. Higgs has kept the healthcare system critically underfunded and starved it of much needed investments.

He’s prioritized paying down government debt and sewing discord over divisive cultural issues, while he gaslights the entire province by claiming his government has been a working hard on the issues that matter most to New Brunswickers and constantly uses Trudeau and the carbon tax as scapegoats for all the problems afflicting New Brunswickers today. When in reality Higgs and the PCs are far more to blame for the problems facing NB today. Higgs chose to raise the revenue for our carbon tax obligation entirely on the backs of regular New Brunswickers at the gas pump, even though NB’s biggest emitter, the largest oil refinery in Canada already pays far less taxes than any other refinery in Canada per barrel sold.

Higgs could have put the carbon tax obligation entirely on industrial emitters— he chose not to out of loyalty to Irving, and because it presented an opportunity to get people riled up about Trudeau.

It’s frankly ridiculous to blame the outcome of this election on Justin Trudeau. I’m not a big fan of him myself, but I am informed enough to know that he’s not primarily to blame for these major, festering issues facing New Brunswick today— Blaine Higgs and his PC government are mostly to blame, and they’ve been in power now for six years. Blaine Higgs’s austerity agenda and fixation on paying down government debt is putting people’s lives at risk, and I’ve seen it first hand with relatives who have been let down by the healthcare system, which has gotten progressively worse since 2018. It’s mind boggling to me that some boomers and even older generations could give a flying **** about paying down government debt, while our healthcare system continues to fail people regularly.

If Higgs somehow pulls off a third term, Trudeau won’t be to blame: New Brunswickers voting against their own self interest, will be to blame… and they’ll be to blame because they are so easily manipulated by Higgs’s relentless campaign of misinformation and propaganda that blames all the problems of NB on his political opponents and our federal government. Ignorance and lack of understanding how government works will be to blame if Higgs narrowly secures a third term— not Justin Trudeau.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

The Liberals were the ones who came up with an ideal of a carbon tax. If it wasn't applied to gas it would have been applied in another way, shape or form. To call it a Higgs tax is incorrect. If we want less tax then we should stay away from the Liberals. Voting for the mini Liberal government isn't any better

You can’t be serious? Higgs is absolutely to blame for why our carbon tax obligation and Irving’s clean fuel charges were raised almost entirely on the backs of NBers at the gas pump! He chose to raise the revenue as the Higgs Gas Tax, and chose not to raise the revenue as a price on pollution paid for by our biggest industrial emitters.

The biggest industrial emitter in the province is the Irving Oil refinery in Saint John, which not only happens to be the largest oil refinery in Canada, but also the least taxed refinery in Canada. It’s the least taxed refinery per barrel refined in Canada because of New Brunswick’s corrupt tax assessment department and archaic tax code. Higgs didn’t just not raise the revenue for our carbon tax obligations on Irving and other industrial emitters out of loyalty— he also did it because it presented an opportunity to blame Trudeau for something that would really be his fault. Calling it a “Higgs Gas Tax” is entirely fair.

As for Trudeau’s idea to build housing on federally owned port lands, I’ll respond to you another time in the Port Saint John thread, as that is an entirely federal issue, and this isn’t the place to discuss it.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

For some one who goes of their way to make the distinction between the King of Canada and King of the UK, I assume you’re informed enough to realize the distinct responsibilities and obligations of the three levels of government. Canadian states are generally considered to hold far more power and autonomy than American states. Likewise, the Canadian Federal government isn’t nearly as powerful as the US federal government.


Imo, the top issues of this election (in descending order)

Healthcare
Tax Reform
Affordable Housing/Rising Rents
Public Education
Homelessness and Addictions

Higgs would like to make these the top issues of the election in descending order:

F@&$ Trudeau/Blame Carbon Tax for everything
Parental Rights/Transgenderism in Schools
2% cut to the HST
The Addictions Epidemic
Continued Austerity to pay down the debt

If we look at key, serious issues like the tax code, healthcare delivery, senior care, housing, public education, or homelessness… these are all issues of provincial responsibility. The federal government is responsible for funding provincial healthcare systems, and Blaine Higgs put our federal healthcare funding at risk. NB spends less per citizen on healthcare than any other province in Canada. Higgs has kept the healthcare system critically underfunded and starved it of much needed investments.

He’s prioritized paying down government debt and sewing discord over divisive cultural issues, while he gaslights the entire province by claiming his government has been a working hard on the issues that matter most to New Brunswickers and constantly uses Trudeau and the carbon tax as scapegoats for all the problems afflicting New Brunswickers today. When in reality Higgs and the PCs are far more to blame for the problems facing NB today. Higgs chose to raise the revenue for our carbon tax obligation entirely on the backs of regular New Brunswickers at the gas pump, even though NB’s biggest emitter, the largest oil refinery in Canada already pays far less taxes than any other refinery in Canada per barrel sold.

Higgs could have put the carbon tax obligation entirely on industrial emitters— he chose not to out of loyalty to Irving, and because it presented an opportunity to get people riled up about Trudeau.

It’s frankly ridiculous to blame the outcome of this election on Justin Trudeau. I’m not a big fan of him myself, but I am informed enough to know that he’s not primarily to blame for these major, festering issues facing New Brunswick today— Blaine Higgs and his PC government are mostly to blame, and they’ve been in power now for six years. Blaine Higgs’s austerity agenda and fixation on paying down government debt is putting people’s lives at risk, and I’ve seen it first hand with relatives who have been let down by the healthcare system, which has gotten progressively worse since 2018. It’s mind boggling to me that some boomers and even older generations could give a flying **** about paying down government debt, while our healthcare system continues to fail people regularly.

If Higgs somehow pulls off a third term, Trudeau won’t be to blame: New Brunswickers voting against their own self interest, will be to blame… and they’ll be to blame because they are so easily manipulated by Higgs’s relentless campaign of misinformation and propaganda that blames all the problems of NB on his political opponents and our federal government. Ignorance and lack of understanding how government works will be to blame if Higgs narrowly secures a third term— not Justin Trudeau.

While many of them are at least reasonable, with regard to the group of voters we are talking about your points are irrelevant. The issue is about how people feel. They are lumping all Liberals together under the "I hate Trudeau" heading. It has nothing to do with the division of powers, nothing to do with the NB Liberal platform and nothing to do with policy questions. It's about perception and political reality. For many Trudeau is the Liberal brand and that brand is toxic.

The provincial Liberals understand how toxic Trudeau and the federal Liberals are all too well. Hence the prominence of "Team Holt" in advertising and the playing down of "Liberal"

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

They are lumping all Liberals together under the "I hate Trudeau" heading. ... For many Trudeau is the Liberal brand and that brand is toxic.

The provincial Liberals understand how toxic Trudeau and the federal Liberals are all too well. Hence the prominence of "Team Holt" in advertising and the playing down of "Liberal"

This is rather a steep hill to climb, in conjunction with the fact that there are three left of center parties (some laughable...) going against the incumbent in a first past the poll election.

In a zerosum game that is first past the post voting, every green vote isn't a Liberal vote. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Liberals lose Portland Simonds that the sum of the Green and Liberal votes is greater than the PC result.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

This is rather a steep hill to climb, in conjunction with the fact that there are three left of center parties (some laughable...) going against the incumbent in a first past the poll election.

In a zerosum game that is first past the post voting, every green vote isn't a Liberal vote. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Liberals lose Portland Simonds that the sum of the Green and Liberal votes is greater than the PC result.

I'm not suggesting that "F*#K Trudeau" sentiment is a huge percentage of responses to door knocking but it is certainly being encountered on doorsteps by Liberal candidates from what I am hearing.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm not suggesting that "F*#K Trudeau" sentiment is a huge percentage of responses to door knocking but it is certainly being encountered on doorsteps by Liberal candidates from what I am hearing.

I wouldn't be surprised if the "dude" with the jacked up silverado truck, canadian flag and the "trudeau" one occasionally flying, has never voted.

But will now.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

While many of them are at least reasonable, with regard to the group of voters we are talking about your points are irrelevant. The issue is about how people feel. They are lumping all Liberals together under the "I hate Trudeau" heading. It has nothing to do with the division of powers, nothing to do with the NB Liberal platform and nothing to do with policy questions. It's about perception and political reality. For many Trudeau is the Liberal brand and that brand is toxic.

The provincial Liberals understand how toxic Trudeau and the federal Liberals are all too well. Hence the prominence of "Team Holt" in advertising and the playing down of "Liberal"

Shouldn’t people feel freaking terrified about the state of healthcare in NB if they are an elderly boomer, or ageing gen x-er? You have to be pretty young to not give a care in the world about the healthcare system. We have a healthcare system in failure, and a premier that has gaslit us for the last 6 years on this major issue and concern to NBers. Healthcare remains the key issue of the election, along with housing, affordability, and tax reform.

Older people who might need to use the healthcare system to save their own lives, or people with chronic illnesses, or with ageing parents should feel a lot more scared about Higgs getting back in than Trudeau who’s verging on lame loon status at this point. Higgs is vying for 5 more years with a majority government, that should scare NBers a lot more than Trudeau’s limited time in office remaining.

A premier with a majority government is far more consequential to the governance of NB than even the strongest federal majority government. If people are really going to be dumb enough to let Trudeau be the boogeyman in a provincial election to Higgs favour, we clearly need better civics and social studies classes taught in our schools.

This election is a clear choice between Holt and Higgs, not Trudeau. Letting that certain subset dominate the narrative of this campaign would be a disservice to the future of New Brunswick.

So far, I think Team Holt has done a tremendous job sticking to the key issues, and hasn’t let Team Higgs and Steve Outhouse drag them to the septic fields where they prefer to play politics. Higgs has tried his darnedest to get Susan Holt to take the bait on a myriad of issues and come off as a woke Liberal, but she hasn’t fallen for it yet. If she keeps it up, stays on message, and outworks him on the campaign trail (including the digital campaign trail) it’ll still be her election to lose.

[adamuptownsj]

The provincial Liberals are literally the provincial chapter of the federal Liberals. That's a fact, and it's presumably why they're called the New Brunswick Liberal Association, and not 'Party'. The same applies across the Atlantic provinces, nowhere else. They're certainly on a long leash but they're not a distinct entity by any means. Combining resources lets them operate more efficiently than the distinct and not entirely overlapping in membership CPC/PCNB, but it's clearly got downsides.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The provincial Liberals are literally the provincial chapter of the federal Liberals. That's a fact

And Don Dominic LeBlanc is most definitely the Liberal Godfather of NB, both federally and provincially. This is also indisputably a fact. Holt is his (and by extension also JTs) acolyte.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The provincial Liberals are literally the provincial chapter of the federal Liberals. That's a fact, and it's presumably why they're called the New Brunswick Liberal Association, and not 'Party'. The same applies across the Atlantic provinces, nowhere else. They're certainly on a long leash but they're not a distinct entity by any means. Combining resources lets them operate more efficiently than the distinct and not entirely overlapping in membership CPC/PCNB, but it's clearly got downsides.

Liberals? What Liberals? The PC's are running against a new party called "Team Holt". Haven't you been paying attention?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The provincial Liberals are literally the provincial chapter of the federal Liberals. That's a fact, and it's presumably why they're called the New Brunswick Liberal Association, and not 'Party'. The same applies across the Atlantic provinces, nowhere else. They're certainly on a long leash but they're not a distinct entity by any means. Combining resources lets them operate more efficiently than the distinct and not entirely overlapping in membership CPC/PCNB, but it's clearly got downsides.

That can be changed.

Regardless, it doesn’t mean it’s not ridiculous to constantly bring up and blame Trudeau and the federal liberals for responsibilities of the provincial government that Higgs has done a terrible job on. It’s just lazy, partisan politics that holds the entire province back.

Holt shouldn’t be pay the price for Trudeau’s sins, while Higgs has been a negligent premier for the past 6 years on key provincial responsibilities like healthcare, housing, and tax reform. Trudeau isn’t to blame for most of the systemic problems facing NB today, Higgs is!

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Liberals? What Liberals? The PC's are running against a new party called "Team Holt". Haven't you been paying attention?

Exactly. Just like the guy on arrested development… TEAM HOLT!

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And Don Dominic LeBlanc is most definitely the Liberal Godfather of NB, both federally and provincially. This is also indisputably a fact. Holt is his (and by extension also JTs) acolyte.

I had to check his age, I can't believe the guy is only 56.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I had to check his age, I can't believe the guy is only 56.

That’s what surviving cancer can do to a man. Thankfully for him, he had better healthcare than what most NBers have access to.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

And Don Dominic LeBlanc is most definitely the Liberal Godfather of NB, both federally and provincially. This is also indisputably a fact. Holt is his (and by extension also JTs) acolyte.

Federally sure, but provincially? How much influence does LeBlanc really have on Team Holt and the planks in their platform? Any sources to back up this “Godfather” claim? lol

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

That can be changed.

Regardless, it doesn’t mean it’s not ridiculous to constantly bring up and blame Trudeau and the federal liberals for responsibilities of the provincial government that Higgs has done a terrible job on. It’s just lazy, partisan politics that holds the entire province back.

Holt shouldn’t be pay the price for Trudeau’s sins, while Higgs has been a negligent premier for the past 6 years on key provincial responsibilities like healthcare, housing, and tax reform. Trudeau isn’t to blame for most of the systemic problems facing NB today, Higgs is!

You sound like an intelligent person. Totally get where your coming from. We are dealing with a population totally sick of the left and right fighting like children. No consensus. No compromise. Us vs them. Everyone shouting, no one listening. Just like down south. I find it amazing how much the U.S. affects us.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

You sound like an intelligent person. Totally get where your coming from. We are dealing with a population totally sick of the left and right fighting like children. No consensus. No compromise. Us vs them. Everyone shouting, no one listening. Just like down south. I find it amazing how much the U.S. affects us.

I find it amazing how much some of the otherwise intelligent posters on these forums keep on bringing up Trudeau.

Higgs is our problem in NB, not Dominic LeBlanc and Justin Trudeau.


Holt seems like a typical centrist, and seems very much in control of her party. She’s not taking Higgs’s bait, and she’s smartly distancing herself and her party from the federal Liberals.

She’s making this campaign about New Brunswick, not Trudeau. Higgs may end up deeply regretting his campaign strategy/ hiring Steve Outhouse as his campaign manager.

Outhouse might get Alberta politics … but he doesn’t seem to get NB politics.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Federally sure, but provincially? How much influence does LeBlanc really have on Team Holt and the planks in their platform? Any sources to back up this “Godfather” claim? lol

The provincial Liberals serve three masters:

1) - the Irvings (both major parties serve the Irvings, perhaps in slightly different ways, but, both parties know that the strength of the provincial economy rests firmly on the Irving group of companies. They won't do anything to really piss them off).
2) - the SAANB. Being from Saint John, you probably don't feel this very much, but, in northern and eastern NB, the SAANB has a real and palpable influence on who the Liberal candidate in most ridings is (except in the handful of ridings where the Acadian population is less than 25%).
3) - the federal Liberals. Yes, Don Dominic is indeed the godfather of the party, both federally and provincially. I'm sure that Susan Holt has his tacit support because he knows that it is important that at the present time it is very important that the provincial Liberal leader must be a (bilingual) anglophone. He will have made very sure that she is profoundly supportive of Acadian concerns.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The provincial Liberals serve three masters:

1) - the Irvings (both major parties serve the Irvings, perhaps in slightly different ways, but, both parties know that the strength of the provincial economy rests firmly on the Irving group of companies. They won't do anything to really piss them off).
2) - the SAANB. Being from Saint John, you probably don't feel this very much, but, in northern and eastern NB, the SAANB has a real and palpable influence on who the Liberal candidate in most ridings is (except in the handful of ridings where the Acadian population is less than 25%).
3) - the federal Liberals. Yes, Don Dominic is indeed the godfather of the party, both federally and provincially. I'm sure that Susan Holt has his tacit support because he knows that it is important that at the present time it is very important that the provincial Liberal leader must be a (bilingual) anglophone. He will have made very sure that she is profoundly supportive of Acadian concerns.

All three points make sense. I noticed one of the Liberal candidates is actually a former president of the SANB. No doubt there are tight and extensive ties between the party and SANB in the Francophone part of the province.

One of the things that worries me about a potential Holt victory is that at least 2/3's of her caucus would likely be from Acadian ridings and subject to significant SANB influence.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I find it amazing how much some of the otherwise intelligent posters on these forums keep on bringing up Trudeau.

Higgs is our problem in NB, not Dominic LeBlanc and Justin Trudeau.


Holt seems like a typical centrist, and seems very much in control of her party. She’s not taking Higgs’s bait, and she’s smartly distancing herself and her party from the federal Liberals.

She’s making this campaign about New Brunswick, not Trudeau. Higgs may end up deeply regretting his campaign strategy/ hiring Steve Outhouse as his campaign manager.

Outhouse might get Alberta politics … but he doesn’t seem to get NB politics.

I don't think posters here are bringing up Trudeau in the way you think they are. I can only speak for myself but I see his unpopularity as a potential factor in how some may decide to cast their votes. Is it fair to link Holt with him? maybe....maybe not, but she is linked to him in some voter's minds regardless (Liberal=Trudeau to them). Is that enough to cost her the election? who knows but I think it is naive to suggest it is not a factor.

Not speaking as a PC or a Liberal supporter in this but rather as an interested observer of the political process.

[adamuptownsj]

Does SANB have any clout with Brayons in Madawaska? They're not nearly as loyal to Liberals as Acadians, especially federally.