Trans Canada Highway Twinning: Segments U/C

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Also - if you drive on the 401, you know how congested it is. A $30 billion 401 tunnel through central Toronto would likely boost GDP by more than $30 billion spent on the Trans-Canada would, by a significant margin.

Ultimately we know basically 0 details about the project and even it's basic scope. The media is having a field day with a couple of sentences in a press release. Let's wait and hear some more details before passing judgement.

Do you really believe that building more lanes is going to solve the congestion issues? We already know from very notable examples elsewhere that it won't help enough in the long run to be worth the massive costs. The money is better spent in other ways to get people around the area.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Do you really believe that building more lanes is going to solve the congestion issues? We already know from very notable examples elsewhere that it won't help enough in the long run to be worth the massive costs. The money is better spent in other ways to get people around the area.

Induced demand is a severely misconstrued phenomenon. More capacity helps travel times in basically all cases.

The oft-given example of the Katy Freeway is a result of Houston's extreme growth rates. Yes, travel times did not change after several years from the widening, but that's because travel demand grew from economic growth. Travel times are no doubt better as a result of the project vs. if it had not happened at all.

If we applied the "all road projects are pointless because induced demand" thought-line to it's logical end, we could theoretically cut the 401 to a two-lane rural road without consequence. Does that work too? Obviously not.

There is a lot of nuance in the topic which is generally ignored.

[harls]

Do we want a bypass of Toronto all the way from Hamilton to Peterborough?

It's probably in the works.

[Carboy15]

Having 4 or 6 lanes (2 or 3 each direction) is okay as it is less complex and simpler to navigate. Induced demand is when a highway starts expanding to 8, 10, 12, 16, even going as far as 20 total lanes. More lanes to add more capacity makes the road more complex and more dangerous to navigate than a road with less lanes.

With the Trans Canada going through Northern Ontario, not only does it need to be twinned, but it is too curvy for todays standards.

Back on topic, I feel like Southern Ontario at least needs high speed rail. High frequency rail is a good start, but I would hope to see a hyperloop or a Maglev in my lifetime. Southern Ontario has lots of roads. Northern Ontario is where they need the roads. Even with a rail system, I feel like we still should have twinned highways as it would work well for truckers.

It is unlikely we would ever get a nationwide High speed rail system. But, here's where I'd like to see at least a decent rail system in my lifetime:

High Speed (Maglev or Hyperloop/Transpod):

• 1. Calgary to Edmonton (planned)
  2. Windsor to Montreal (under consideration as High Frequency)

High Frequency (VIA's current plan):

• 1. Ottawa to Sault Ste Marie
  2. Edmonton to Saskatoon, Saskatoon to Regina, Regina to Winnipeg
  3. Edmonton to Vancouver

Via Rail:

• 1. Most of the current lines, except where it would be converted to High Frequency or Maglev
  2. Calgary to Saskatoon

[Dengler Avenue]

^ The topic’s actually on TCH twinning.
It depends on which part of Northern Ontario you’re thinking of.
Between Kenora and Vermillion Bay? MTO’s technically improved that stretch, but yes it can probably be further straightened for future twinning.
Lake Superior Shore? There are definitely a couple of sharp curves that don’t even support 110 kph design, but the rest is fine. Of course, if we start talking about twinning the current alignment, those curves do need to be widened to support 130 kph design (or 120 kph design in exceptional cases).
The horizontal curves on Lake Huron Shore and eastward are generally fine. For super-2’s like Sudbury Bypass, the curves are designed for 120 kph or higher right from the get-go.

Ps: Now that I think about it, some stretches of Kenora Bypass may have minimum-value curves (such as 650-m turning radius for 120 kph design) that need widening during twinning.

[ssiguy]

I see Ontario is going to raise it's speed limits on all 400 series highways from 100 to 110. It had done it on some freeways ie 402 but this is the first time since the 70s that speed limits will go up province-wide. It's about time and yet still doesn't bring the speed limit back to where it {75 mph} before PET changed it in the mid-70s.

I still thinks its too low and should be closer to 130 km/hour but REALLY enforced with very high fines and demerit points. Right now in Ontario's 400 series, the speed limit is nothing more than a mild suggestion and is never enforced.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Induced demand is a severely misconstrued phenomenon. More capacity helps travel times in basically all cases.

The oft-given example of the Katy Freeway is a result of Houston's extreme growth rates. Yes, travel times did not change after several years from the widening, but that's because travel demand grew from economic growth. Travel times are no doubt better as a result of the project vs. if it had not happened at all.

If we applied the "all road projects are pointless because induced demand" thought-line to it's logical end, we could theoretically cut the 401 to a two-lane rural road without consequence. Does that work too? Obviously not.

There is a lot of nuance in the topic which is generally ignored.

Look at highways in Central and Northern Ontario that have been twinned. Where's all the congestion on Highway 11 between Huntsville and North Bay since the twinnings over the past 25 years? Or Highway 69?

Additionally, as I noted earlier in this thread, the 401 was widened between Mississauga and Milton, but it has gone from being congested almost 24/7 to flowing very well outside rush hour. There has been no induced demand there.

Road widenings can also take pressure off parallel roads and residential streets. An urban example I remember in London was when Oxford Street was widened west of Wonderland Road nearly 20 years ago; traffic on parallel Riverside Drive noticably dropped after that project was completed - in those days I commuted from Byron to a job on Wonderland and the difference was very noticable. Prior to then there had been concerns about traffic on that road, which has a lot of residential driveways, and I remember Riverside being quite congested back in 2004-2005. Sure, traffic may have increased on Oxford, but it was being siphoned off Riverside instead of magically appearing. With respect to the 401, it has parallel routes such as Sheppard Ave in Toronto which at times can be faster for getting across North York than the 401 itself and therefore can get spillover traffic that might otherwise use the 401.

Traffic doesn't just magically appear out of thin air.

[DirectionNorth]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

Look at highways in Central and Northern Ontario that have been twinned. Where's all the congestion on Highway 11 between Huntsville and North Bay since the twinnings over the past 25 years? Or Highway 69?

Additionally, as I noted earlier in this thread, the 401 was widened between Mississauga and Milton, but it has gone from being congested almost 24/7 to flowing very well outside rush hour. There has been no induced demand there.

Road widenings can also take pressure off parallel roads and residential streets. An urban example I remember in London was when Oxford Street was widened west of Wonderland Road nearly 20 years ago; traffic on parallel Riverside Drive noticably dropped after that project was completed - in those days I commuted from Byron to a job on Wonderland and the difference was very noticable. Prior to then there had been concerns about traffic on that road, which has a lot of residential driveways, and I remember Riverside being quite congested. Sure, traffic may have increased on Oxford, but it was being siphoned off Riverside instead of magically appearing.

Traffic doesn't just magically appear out of thin air.

The traffic is now hitting west of Milton. That section's congested seven days a week ...

That said, induced demand does get trotted in inappropriate situations. While I have no doubt that Doug's 401 tunnel will be full in no time (whether it's worth the economic activity should be the subject of argument - I'd argue no, but people are focusing on the wrong debate), it's not going to materialise on the highway to Sudbury and North Bay.

That said, the 401 tunnel dollars might move more economic activity elsewhere - in the same vein, would the $3 billion Katy Freeway move more people and generate more economic activity if that money was spent on, say, a Post Oak-downtown subway? Urban growth isn't written on stone tablets sent down from Mount Sinai. Transport investments can shape the growth we want, and what we do with transport money says, more than any kind of Master Plan, what kind of city we want.

My argument against full Trans-Canada twinning is the opposite: it's not going to generate enough traffic. Use the money to twin bottlenecks - Sudbury bypass, Nipigon-Thunder Bay, Kenora bypass - and put the rest towards less wasteful uses.

[Carboy15]

Originally Posted by DirectionNorth

My argument against full Trans-Canada twinning is the opposite: it's not going to generate enough traffic. Use the money to twin bottlenecks - Sudbury bypass, Nipigon-Thunder Bay, Kenora bypass - and put the rest towards less wasteful uses.

I don't really expect a full TCH Twinning anytime soon, but we could do it in phases and it would be very handy for crosscountry traffic. We could put 2+1 expressways with a concrete barrier in the middle until a 4 lane expressway can be built.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by DirectionNorth

The traffic is now hitting west of Milton. That section's congested seven days a week ...

That said, induced demand does get trotted in inappropriate situations. While I have no doubt that Doug's 401 tunnel will be full in no time (whether it's worth the economic activity should be the subject of argument - I'd argue no, but people are focusing on the wrong debate), it's not going to materialise on the highway to Sudbury and North Bay.

That said, the 401 tunnel dollars might move more economic activity elsewhere - in the same vein, would the $3 billion Katy Freeway move more people and generate more economic activity if that money was spent on, say, a Post Oak-downtown subway? Urban growth isn't written on stone tablets sent down from Mount Sinai. Transport investments can shape the growth we want, and what we do with transport money says, more than any kind of Master Plan, what kind of city we want.

My argument against full Trans-Canada twinning is the opposite: it's not going to generate enough traffic. Use the money to twin bottlenecks - Sudbury bypass, Nipigon-Thunder Bay, Kenora bypass - and put the rest towards less wasteful uses.

The 401 traffic in Milton is a fraction of what it was before the widening as the highway is nowhere near as overloaded at that point.

Yes, your discussion on priorities of limited infrastructure dollars is the discussion we need to be having. But to know that we need details of any such 401 tunnel. And that includes what type of growth we want.

Projects like northern highway twinning have basically a 0% return on investment, or at least very close to it. they generate little new economic activity and create little in time savings on aggregate.

A 401 tunnel would be wildly expensive, but latent demand on the corridor is so great that it would enable an immense amount of additional mobility and commerce.

We have to do that analysis to figure out if it's worth it or not. Pissing it away on building massive, empty freeways in northern ontario likely isn't it though.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by DirectionNorth

The traffic is now hitting west of Milton. That section's congested seven days a week ...

That's because of the Tremaine bridge/ramp currently under construction. I drive past it every day...

I can verify innsert's post, traffic through Milton is significantly more free-flowing than it was 10 years ago. My only issue with the widening is the 3+2(+HOV) collector/express once you hit Halton Hills? What's the point of such a narrow express? They should've just kept it an unwalled 5 lanes through the entire Trafalgar-Mississauga Rd stretch.

[Acajack]

I think it's still very early days in terms of the AADT and congestion impact of highway expansions such as the 401 in the Milton area.

That said, even if an expanded highway becomes congested it doesn't mean the expansion wasn't needed or is a failure.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

A 401 tunnel would be wildly expensive, but latent demand on the corridor is so great that it would enable an immense amount of additional mobility and commerce.

We have to do that analysis to figure out if it's worth it or not. Pissing it away on building massive, empty freeways in northern ontario likely isn't it though.

A 401 tunnel is obviously very high cost, high reward, while a northern highway twinning is more low cost, low reward.

For what it's worth, Ontario has completely neglected a lot of low cost, medium reward highway projects, namely highways between mid-sized cities that are not Toronto. The 400-series highways are really a hub and spoke system to get you from the hinterlands to Toronto (or to the 401), but not to get you between relatively close, relatively major cities.

There are so many examples:

Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph
Highway 6 Morriston bypass (KWC+Guelph to Hamilton)

^At least these ones have plans, even if successive governments have dragged their feet in terms of putting actual shovels in the ground. There's also:

- Any kind of four lane connection to the Collingwood/Wasaga region.
- Kitchener to London via Stratford
- Extending the 4-lane section of Hwy 24 north from Hwy 5 (connect Cambridge to Brantford)

And there are probably some others...

[Innsertnamehere]

don't disagree - but building freeways in Northern Ontario isn't actually that low cost given the distances involved.

The 400 extension to Sudbury is going to end up costing around $3 billion for ~250km of highway. It'll save about 7,000 vehicles a day about 30 minutes of travel time - about 3,500 hours of travel time reduced.

The 413 for comparison would cost about twice as much, but would save about 18,000 hours a day in congestion relief alone, yet alone reduced travel times on top of that.

And the 400 extension is on a northern highway which is downright bustling compared to most northern highways. Most northern highways have traffic levels less than 1/2 Highway 69.

I do agree about underinvestment in secondary corridors in Ontario - to Collingwood, between Kitchener and Hamilton, even Brantford and Kitchener. Other corridors like 12, 48, 9, 89, etc. also all operate at very high traffic levels on rural 2-lane roads right now.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

A 401 tunnel is obviously very high cost, high reward, while a northern highway twinning is more low cost, low reward.

For what it's worth, Ontario has completely neglected a lot of low cost, medium reward highway projects, namely highways between mid-sized cities that are not Toronto. The 400-series highways are really a hub and spoke system to get you from the hinterlands to Toronto (or to the 401), but not to get you between relatively close, relatively major cities.

There are so many examples:

Highway 7 between Kitchener and Guelph
Highway 6 Morriston bypass (KWC+Guelph to Hamilton)

^At least these ones have plans, even if successive governments have dragged their feet in terms of putting actual shovels in the ground. There's also:

- Any kind of four lane connection to the Collingwood/Wasaga region.
- Kitchener to London via Stratford
- Extending the 4-lane section of Hwy 24 north from Hwy 5 (connect Cambridge to Brantford)

And there are probably some others...

In Eastern Ontario the only real need for additional twinnings are related to exurban sprawl around Ottawa: Arnprior-Renfrew, Carleton Place-Perth, Orleans-Rockland. Two out of three are actively being worked on.

[Innsertnamehere]

If I could select some new freeway corridors in Ontario, it would probably be:

1. Highway 426 - Barrie to north of Collingwood, including a bypass of Collingwood itself of some sort. Potential new path across the Niagara Escarpment would be challenging.

2. Highway 466 - Hamilton to Guelph. Replace the 4-lane highway 6 with a new freeway. This could probably be a RIRO and just remain as Highway 6 to lower costs.

3. Highway 424 - new highway from the east side of Brantford up the east side of Cambridge.

4. Highway 477 - upgrade of 35/115 and extension of the highway across the highway 7 corridor to connect with the 417 past Carleton Place. This would serve to relieve pressures on the 401 along Lake Ontario and provide a more direct freeway route to Ottawa.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think it's still very early days in terms of the AADT and congestion impact of highway expansions such as the 401 in the Milton area.

That said, even if an expanded highway becomes congested it doesn't mean the expansion wasn't needed or is a failure.

This part gets missed a lot. Even if/when the widened road gets bottlenecked and traffic eventually moves at the same pace as before, we have still increased capacity. You are able to now move 1.5x or 2x as many people and goods as before.

The focus should be on capacity, not speed of travel.

[Build.It]

For all the talk of making the 407ETR an untolled road, I don't think it will result in a susbtantial capacity increase.

As a tolled road it is seeing roughly 400,000 daily weekday trips in constant freeflow.

https://www.407etr.com/en/usage-statistics

Not sure if adding a few thousand extra thousand trips per day is worth it if it results in the 407 getting just as backed up as all the other highways. The 407 is a lifesaver when you need it.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

If I could select some new freeway corridors in Ontario, it would probably be:

1. Highway 426 - Barrie to north of Collingwood, including a bypass of Collingwood itself of some sort. Potential new path across the Niagara Escarpment would be challenging.

2. Highway 466 - Hamilton to Guelph. Replace the 4-lane highway 6 with a new freeway. This could probably be a RIRO and just remain as Highway 6 to lower costs.

3. Highway 424 - new highway from the east side of Brantford up the east side of Cambridge.

4. Highway 477 - upgrade of 35/115 and extension of the highway across the highway 7 corridor to connect with the 417 past Carleton Place. This would serve to relieve pressures on the 401 along Lake Ontario and provide a more direct freeway route to Ottawa.

This is a bold list but I definitely agree with all of it. The first 3 are relatively short corridors, the last one is a big one. But the last one also has offsetting cost savings to help pay for it (the new 477 highway would avoid the need to do hundreds of kilometers of 6-laning the 401 through Eastern Ontario).

[Innsertnamehere]

477 could theoretically be integrated into the federal High Frequency Rail corridor as well. Integrating both projects in one package could save a lot of money on bridge structures if designed together.