New Brunswick Election

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

What makes him so insane? Does he support amalgamation with Saint John… or something even crazier?

Amalgamation has never made government any better or any cheaper, either corporate or municipal. Getting rid of municipal competition is not a good ideal, monopoly's have never created anything except abuse of power and higher prices with worse service. I'm not sure why you are so fixed on this issue and keep going on about it. Maybe you could do some research and see this is a bad ideal rather than constantly repeating something that won't do the area any good.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

Amalgamation has never made government any better or any cheaper, either corporate or municipal. Getting rid of municipal competition is not a good ideal, monopoly's have never created anything except abuse of power and higher prices with worse service. I'm not sure why you are so fixed on this issue and keep going on about it. Maybe you could do some research and see this is a bad ideal rather than constantly repeating something that won't do the area any good.

Where’s your source that claims amalgamation will cause prices to go higher and result in abuses of power?

I was mainly just wondering what made that Quispamsis candidate, “literally insane” lol

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Where’s your source that claims amalgamation will cause prices to go higher and result in abuses of power?

I was mainly just wondering what made that Quispamsis candidate, “literally insane” lol

Amos has been around for years. He is not the sharpest tool in the shed, n'esy pas?

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by gtsoc

Amos has been around for years. He is not the sharpest tool in the shed, n'esy pas?

Our resident ignore-list amalgamator is too lazy to google, apparently.

Amos is clinical. Straight up out to lunch. Charles LeBlanc if he was a paranoid schizophrenic and looked like Charles Manson and the Unabomber's 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 child. 'Higgy' stole his passport, Gallant killed his cows, Alward and the RCMP stole his motorcycle. And so on.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Our resident ignore-list amalgamator is too lazy to google, apparently.

Amos is clinical. Straight up out to lunch. Charles LeBlanc if he was a paranoid schizophrenic and looked like Charles Manson and the Unabomber's 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 child. 'Higgy' stole his passport, Gallant killed his cows, Alward and the RCMP stole his motorcycle. And so on.

Somehow he convinces 20 people to sign up to nominate him.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Our resident ignore-list amalgamator is too lazy to google, apparently.

Amos is clinical. Straight up out to lunch. Charles LeBlanc if he was a paranoid schizophrenic and looked like Charles Manson and the Unabomber's 🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵🞵 child. 'Higgy' stole his passport, Gallant killed his cows, Alward and the RCMP stole his motorcycle. And so on.

And our resident PC Partisan/ riding President doesn’t have as much to say as usual, because your party is floundering. It’s conservative playbook 101 to try and silence those you disagree with. It’s also against the rules of this forum. Sounds like someone needs some copium.

There’s no sources that verify amalgamation would cost more than the current way of doing things. To the contrary, there’s quite a lot of evidence that amalgamation would save money and be a vehicle for growth, success, and long term stability. One needn’t look further than Halifax to see the biggest argument in favour of regional amalgamation in the Saint John Region.

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Somehow he convinces 20 people to sign up to nominate him.

Willing to bet that those 20 people didn't even know what they were signing, n'esy pas?

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Higgs has declined a second leaders debate hosted by Rogers.

Talk about another strikingly weird parallel between our election here in NB and the US Presidential contest.


We already had the hopeful woman vs the cynical old man, but now our cynical old man is also too scared to agree to a second debate.

How historic would be if NB and the US both elect their first female leader one after another in a matter of two week? Pretty historic.

I remember the 2008 camp quite well, and def feeling some nostalgia with this 2024 campaign.

Team Holt is absolutely dominating the old man and his team with their strong online campaigning— also reminiscent of Obama ‘08.

[sailor734]

New NB update yesterday on 338Canada.com https://338canada.com/nb/

Still looks like virtually a dead heat although he is now giving a slightly higher probability of the PC's hanging on by a thread. (25-22-2)

Locally he has Harbour and Portland-Simonds as a tossup but once again with a very slightly higher chance of the PC's coming out on top rather than the Liberals.

Unless there is some big event or scandal in the next couple of weeks election night should be a nail biter.

[TitleRequired]

Imagine showing up for an interview for a white collar job that pays $93,126 per year.

And showing up in a variation of a Canadian tuxedo.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Imagine showing up for an interview for a white collar job that pays $93,126 per year.

And showing up in a variation of a Canadian tuxedo.

I think they've giving up hope on winning Saint John Harbour. Not that politicians should have to wear a suit and tie. The guy next to 🞵🞵🞵🞵 in the checkered shirt is an even worse fashion disaster.

Look how much success John Fetterman has had while forgoing wearing a suit and tie.

I'd rather judge a politician on the content of their policy positions than their fashion choices.

Hickey is very likely to win the riding this time.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

New NB update yesterday on 338Canada.com https://338canada.com/nb/

Still looks like virtually a dead heat although he is now giving a slightly higher probability of the PC's hanging on by a thread. (25-22-2)

Locally he has Harbour and Portland-Simonds as a tossup but once again with a very slightly higher chance of the PC's coming out on top rather than the Liberals.

Unless there is some big event or scandal in the next couple of weeks election night should be a nail biter.

I think the 338 model is fundamentally flawed, especially when it comes to a smaller province like NB with very sparse polling data. I think he's weighing the 2020 election results far too heavily. The projection should be well near a 50/50 tossup at the moment, but he's got it way less close than 50/50.

As far as I know he's not weighing favourables vs unfavourables. Higgs is at his all time time in unfavourables and is the least popular premier in Canada.

Mr. Fournier's model might be quite accurate at the national level, where there is far more data, but I don't think his model works very well at the provincial model, especially not in a smaller province like NB. There's just not enough reliable data.

His site would be far more interesting if it had an interactive map like the old 538.com had... I'm not sure why 538 and Nate Silver's new site have gotten away from posting the map.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

I think the 338 model is fundamentally flawed, especially when it comes to a smaller province like NB with very sparse polling data. I think he's weighing the 2020 election results far too heavily. The projection should be well near a 50/50 tossup at the moment, but he's got it way less close than 50/50.

As far as I know he's not weighing favourables vs unfavourables. Higgs is at his all time time in unfavourables and is the least popular premier in Canada.

Mr. Fournier's model might be quite accurate at the national level, where there is far more data, but I don't think his model works very well at the provincial model, especially not in a smaller province like NB. There's just not enough reliable data.

His site would be far more interesting if it had an interactive map like the old 538.com had... I'm not sure why 538 and Nate Silver's new site have gotten away from posting the map.

Agree that the 338 model is less useful in small provinces that don't have multiple polls. Still, I think it's going to be closer than some people would expect.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Agree that the 338 model is less useful in small provinces that don't have multiple polls. Still, I think it's going to be closer than some people would expect.

Oh it’s definitely going to be close. Strategic voting will absolutely be necessary for the Liberals to pull off a victory. It’s a shame we don’t have a ranked ballot, would make voting a lot easier, and also incentivize people to actually look up each party’s platform.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

New NB update yesterday on 338Canada.com https://338canada.com/nb/

Still looks like virtually a dead heat although he is now giving a slightly higher probability of the PC's hanging on by a thread. (25-22-2)

Locally he has Harbour and Portland-Simonds as a tossup but once again with a very slightly higher chance of the PC's coming out on top rather than the Liberals.

Unless there is some big event or scandal in the next couple of weeks election night should be a nail biter.

The map is broadly unobjectionable but I've got some minor beefs that ultimately cancel out.
-Miramichi East as very likely PC with Conroy compared to lean Liberal on 338. Alliance is not taking 15% here against her.
-Bathurst is safe Liberal, even with a very strong PC candidate, unless there's some very weird local dynamics up there. It's not even on the board for me.
-Saint John is... odd. Over East, Savoie is very likely to be reelected by slimmer margins than 2020, but he's not in a super challenging seat. Harbour should theoretically be a big Liberal flip, but Hickey is not the great candidate he was even a year ago (general Council toxicity), and the Greens won't slide too bad with Darling from their 2020 peak. Smith could plausibly hold the seat, but I still have it leaning Liberal. Portland Simonds has two very strong nominees from both parties in Dornan and Dempsey, and Dempsey has a long way to drop from Holder's highs. I'd put Lancaster as more likely to flip but it's not like the dim bulb Tik Tok lady is running against one of the vaunted moderate Liberals.
-Moncton Centre is not going anywhere for McKee, but I have Turner probably holding Moncton South by a reduced margin. He picked up more reflexively PC territory to the west in exchange for swingy turf he lost to McKee. Moncton Northwest is safer than South, to me. Functionally no partisan change despite shrinking geographically. Alliance got 9% here and PCs 51% last time. Both South and Northwest feature only PCs, Liberals, and Greens on the ballot.

Local input requested on Kent North as it's not exactly somewhere I am familiar with, but it's kind of tomato, tomato whether the Greens keep it or Liberals flip it, unless it's a majority-maker for Liberals.

I think 338 is nailing the following tough spots.
-Carleton-Victoria gained some very conservative territory south of Florenceville in redistribution and lacks a PA candidate, who took 8% in the riding last time (and did even better in the new turf). Johnson is not a certainty to hold it, but even with Liberals picking up 7% I don't think it's this part of the province where those gains will come from.
-Fredericton, broadly, is what I expect. Really hard to predict what happens. North is definitely tilt-PC, Lincoln tilt-Green, and I refuse to try and predict South-Silverwood except to say the Green won't take it.

TL;DR: I think 338 is off the mark regarding Alliance vote share, which makes Miramichi East, Moncton Northwest, Carleton-Victoria, and to a lesser extent Moncton South more PC-leaning than 338 believes. I also think they're off-base in Saint John, which is very likely to return Liberals in 1-3 of Harbour, Lancaster, and/or Portland Simonds.

They're getting the big picture right, I think.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The map is broadly unobjectionable but I've got some minor beefs that ultimately cancel out.
-Miramichi East as very likely PC with Conroy compared to lean Liberal on 338. Alliance is not taking 15% here against her.
-Bathurst is safe Liberal, even with a very strong PC candidate, unless there's some very weird local dynamics up there. It's not even on the board for me.
-Saint John is... odd. Over East, Savoie is very likely to be reelected by slimmer margins than 2020, but he's not in a super challenging seat. Harbour should theoretically be a big Liberal flip, but Hickey is not the great candidate he was even a year ago (general Council toxicity), and the Greens won't slide too bad with Darling from their 2020 peak. Smith could plausibly hold the seat, but I still have it leaning Liberal. Portland Simonds has two very strong nominees from both parties in Dornan and Dempsey, and Dempsey has a long way to drop from Holder's highs. I'd put Lancaster as more likely to flip but it's not like the dim bulb Tik Tok lady is running against one of the vaunted moderate Liberals.
-Moncton Centre is not going anywhere for McKee, but I have Turner probably holding Moncton South by a reduced margin. He picked up more reflexively PC territory to the west in exchange for swingy turf he lost to McKee. Moncton Northwest is safer than South, to me. Functionally no partisan change despite shrinking geographically. Alliance got 9% here and PCs 51% last time. Both South and Northwest feature only PCs, Liberals, and Greens on the ballot.

Local input requested on Kent North as it's not exactly somewhere I am familiar with, but it's kind of tomato, tomato whether the Greens keep it or Liberals flip it, unless it's a majority-maker for Liberals.

I think 338 is nailing the following tough spots.
-Carleton-Victoria gained some very conservative territory south of Florenceville in redistribution and lacks a PA candidate, who took 8% in the riding last time (and did even better in the new turf). Johnson is not a certainty to hold it, but even with Liberals picking up 7% I don't think it's this part of the province where those gains will come from.
-Fredericton, broadly, is what I expect. Really hard to predict what happens. North is definitely tilt-PC, Lincoln tilt-Green, and I refuse to try and predict South-Silverwood except to say the Green won't take it.

TL;DR: I think 338 is off the mark regarding Alliance vote share, which makes Miramichi East, Moncton Northwest, Carleton-Victoria, and to a lesser extent Moncton South more PC-leaning than 338 believes. I also think they're off-base in Saint John, which is very likely to return Liberals in 1-3 of Harbour, Lancaster, and/or Portland Simonds.

They're getting the big picture right, I think.

This diagram is helpful.



In a two horse race the liberals would do significantly better.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

https://nbliberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/teamholt_ourplatform_2024-1.pdf

Pretty comprehensive. Their platform actually has far more tax cuts for the average New Brunswicker than Higgs’s totally uninspired promise to cut the HST by 2%. If elected they will immediately repeal the $0.04 per litre “Higgs Gas tax”

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

https://nbliberal.ca/wp-content/uploads/teamholt_ourplatform_2024-1.pdf

Pretty comprehensive. Their platform actually has far more tax cuts for the average New Brunswicker than Higgs’s totally uninspired promise to cut the HST by 2%. If elected they will immediately repeal the $0.04 per litre “Higgs Gas tax”

The Liberals were the ones who came up with an ideal of a carbon tax. If it wasn't applied to gas it would have been applied in another way, shape or form. To call it a Higgs tax is incorrect. If we want less tax then we should stay away from the Liberals. Voting for the mini Liberal government isn't any better.

You also said that JT was the one who came out with the ideal to build houses on federal land. It was actually PP who came up with the ideal several years ago, although PP would have allowed them to own the land rather than keeping it like JT wants to do. Building a house on land that you can't own and the government keeps it is a bad ideal period. That is exactly what the natives want with all of NB. The government doing it isn't any better.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

You also said that JT was the one who came out with the ideal to build houses on federal land. It was actually PP who came up with the ideal several years ago, although PP would have allowed them to own the land rather than keeping it like JT wants to do. Building a house on land that you can't own and the government keeps it is a bad ideal period. That is exactly what the natives want with all of NB. The government doing it isn't any better.

This ^^^^^

[sailor734]

Talked to a friend who is a Liberal Candidate the other day. They said that door knocking was going well and most people were respectful and polite even if they weren't supporters. There is, however, a certain (reasonably sized) group that fall firmly into the "F*#K Trudeau" camp.

If the provincial Liberals lose on Oct 21 I think there is only one person largely responsible (and he is not running here in NB)