Federal Government & Politics II

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

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So, waddaya think???

Will JT prorogue parliament before the BQ ultimatum??? I think this an intriguing possibility.

Will JT then step down and call a Liberal leadership convention in the spring? One can only hope, but the vacuous, vain and vapid (triple Vs, there ain't nothin' worse) PM of this formerly illustrious country probably lacks the intellect and self awareness to realize that this is what he has to do.

Will JT do the honourable thing?

Does he even have an honourable bone in his body???

Unless there is some miracle that really makes his support soar I'm quite sure that he won't be LPC leader for the next election in the Fall of 2025 unless it's a snap non-confidence vote that happens sooner than later.

He may prorogue parliament just before Christmas at the beginning of the break and maybe sooner if things become dysfunctional. Looking at the calendar of the House of Commons, I could see JT announcing his departure in December during the last week that parliament sits and him giving a goodbye speech.

An LPC leadership convention would be interesting to see and how quickly it is done. Candidates may decide behind the scenes to not make it too divisive or heated and with a goal of making the party different than under JT. There likely won't be very many people interested in running.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Ontario PC Party managed to complete a leadership race in six weeks in 2018. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but it's possible.

Yes, but in this case there is no requirement to govern, appoint ministers, write a speech from the throne, face a confidence vote, etc. There was also a leading candidate with a political machine already in place (Ford Nation). The previous leadership vote was in 2015, so party lists, etc. were reasonably up-to-date.

For the Liberals there is no presumptive candidate with a political machine (there is no Carney Nation, for example) and the new leader would have to appoint a cabinet, get ministers briefed, write a speech from the throne, etc. in a matter of days and would then immediately face a confidence vote. There hasn't been a convention since 2013. Lists, rules, riding associations, etc. are likely quite out of date.

[shreddog]

FWIW, proroguing gov't kills all Bills in progress. Currently, Bill C-64 - Pharmacare - is still with the Senate. Perhaps it could be pushed through before Christmas, but not that likely. As such, if PMJT does pull the prorogue hand grenade, the Pharmacare "centre piece" legislation is dead.

I think a good indicator of intent to go down this path will be the urgency the Senate puts towards finishing their review ... but since the majority are now independents, PMJT has no way to influence that, right

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Ontario PC Party managed to complete a leadership race in six weeks in 2018. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but it's possible.

Not according to the current LPC Constitution. Specifically para 45.c implies a minimum 3 month race: "deliver to the National President, at least 90 days before the day of the Leadership Vote, a written nomination (which may be in one or more counterparts) signed by at least 300 Registered Liberals ...". While the Constitution can always be changed, according to itself that can only be done at a convention. So it would be borderline impossible for them to have a "quick" leadership race.

It's also interesting to note that the LPC constitution states that as soon as the Leader announces their intention to resign an interim leader must be identified. Maybe Bob Rae can be convinced to come out of retirement ... again.

[shreddog]

So based on the two previous posts, a possible scenario is PMJT struggles to keep things together for another 8 weeks to allow the Senate to pass Bill C-64, prorogues early December and resigns. The LPC asks Bob Rae to come back as interim leader (or someone similar) and declares a leadership convention in early April. Candidates scramble over the holidays to put together a leadership team and declare their intentions, with the required 300 names, early/mid January. The Carney led task force is also killed, so no real change to the gov'ts finance story.

Assume Carney wins in April, he can either call a snap election based on his leadership campaign (assuming he has time to develop real policies) or tries to govern. In the first scenario, we have a possible election in end of June or early July. Not the best times, but whatever. If he tries to govern and lasts 2 months - maybe enough time to get a real budget out, depends on what happened in the leadership race - and we get a September election.

Both scenarios could mean however that Canada will not have any real government from December 2024 onwards.

[casper]

Originally Posted by shreddog

So based on the two previous posts, a possible scenario is PMJT struggles to keep things together for another 8 weeks to allow the Senate to pass Bill C-64, prorogues early December and resigns. The LPC asks Bob Rae to come back as interim leader (or someone similar) and declares a leadership convention in early April. Candidates scramble over the holidays to put together a leadership team and declare their intentions, with the required 300 names, early/mid January. The Carney led task force is also killed, so no real change to the gov'ts finance story.

Assume Carney wins in April, he can either call a snap election based on his leadership campaign (assuming he has time to develop real policies) or tries to govern. In the first scenario, we have a possible election in end of June or early July. Not the best times, but whatever. If he tries to govern and lasts 2 months - maybe enough time to get a real budget out, depends on what happened in the leadership race - and we get a September election.

Both scenarios could mean however that Canada will not have any real government from December 2024 onwards.

Ok. That provides a path forward. The Liberals can tell the NDP they would campaign on how the actions of the NDP forced them down this path that killed pharmacare. No NDPer would want that on their head. That will force the NDP to support the government until at least parliament goes into recess on Dec. 17. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene on Jan 27th. Perhaps pirogue for a month, that gets us into March.

There is time for a new more "traditional" Liberal budget (that the NDP, Conservatives and Bloc would all despise for opposite reasons). The government falls and we are off to an election. The conservatives can characterize it as a budget that is full of irresponsible spending. The NDP can paint it as one that lacks adequate social program spending. The Liberals can sell it as a middle of the road compromise. The BLOC can be upset because they are the bloc. Everyone is happy and off to the door knocking.