BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

I doubt any independents are going to split the vote enough for the BC Conservatives to lose and the NDP won a seat. I doubt West Van is gonna see an independent above 5%, no less 10%....

In West Vancouver - Capilano, the independent (and former BC United) candidate is the current MLA, Karin Kirkpatrick. I'd suggest that gives her a reasonable chance of picking up significantly more than just 5-10% of the vote.

[BaddieB]

Originally Posted by whatnext

When push comes to shove enough voters will head to the mushy middle which is where Eby has positioned the NDP. He’s fortunate that Furstenau had the personality of a wet dishrag and won’t motivate those concerned about Eby’s carbon tax waffling to move to the Greens.

My bellwether for this is JJ McCullough who is a conservative who hates the conspiracy MAGA set. However, based on his twitter activity, he seems to prefer Rustad, ironically.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by whatnext

West Vancouver-Capilano comes to mind right away.

But historically it's been close to a 70% Liberal seat. That dropped during the Christy Clark years and it was the lowest with Kirkpatrick at 54%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Vancouver-Capilano

Federally in 2021 the riding (provincial/federal boundaries are of course different)

Liberals 33.9%
Conservative 30%
NDP 26%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Vancouver%E2%80%94Sunshine_Coast%E2%80%94Sea_to_Sky_Country

I'm pretty sure the Greens will be just as detrimental in this riding for the NDP as with the Cons-Ind split.

[BaddieB]

Upon further reflection, I think some of the BC United independents seem stronger than I realized. I look at some of their socials and they seem quite active and outspoken. If a green was able to almost win in Sea to Sky I don't see why Kirkpatrick can't win in her riding.

To add to that, the latest mainstreet polls show 'other' at 5%, which is pretty strong. That 5 percent is concentrated in only a few ridings with strong Independent United candidates so I imagine they have a shot.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Upon further reflection, I think some of the BC United independents seem stronger than I realized. I look at some of their socials and they seem quite active and outspoken. If a green was able to almost win in Sea to Sky I don't see why Kirkpatrick can't win in her riding.

To add to that, the latest mainstreet polls show 'other' at 5%, which is pretty strong. That 5 percent is concentrated in only a few ridings with strong Independent United candidates so I imagine they have a shot.

It's the old question if people support the local candidate or the party. But the vote split for West Vancouver—Sea to Sky will be interesting where it's a straight three party race with no independents.

[Sheba]

Rustad wants B.C. Indigenous rights law repealed. Chief sees that as 40-year setback

British Columbia saw a rare unanimous vote in its legislature in October 2019, when members passed a law adopting the United Nations Declarations on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, setting out standards including free, prior and informed consent for actions affecting them.

The law "fundamentally changed the relationship" between First Nations and the province, said Terry Teegee, regional chief of the B.C. Assembly of First Nations.

"Rather than having some sort of consultation, right now we're actually talking about shared decision-making," Teegee said in an interview.

John Rustad threw his support behind the legislation as a member of the Official Opposition B.C. Liberal Party, but as the B.C. Conservative leader he has since signalled his intention to "repeal" the law if his party wins the Oct. 19 provincial election.

Rustad said in a statement on the Conservatives' website last February, that the UN declaration, known as UNDRIP, was "established for conditions in other countries — not Canada."

...

Oh joy - another example of 'lets be against everything the other party is for'...

[Bcasey25raptor]

Mainstreet today has the cons at 46% and the NDP at 42% with the Cons winning 54 seats

Like I said, the race is over, Eby is toast. The NDP have never been able to beat a united right other than 2020 which was an odd election. This was over the day United suspended it's campaign

[BaddieB]

I'll make my assumptions once the leader's debate has happened. You're too doom and gloom 3 weeks before the election. Mainstreet, Research Co, and Abacus had the NDP winning or tied before the leaders debate in Alberta last year. Smith won that by 8.6 points.

[seamusmcduff]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

My bellwether for this is JJ McCullough who is a conservative who hates the conspiracy MAGA set. However, based on his twitter activity, he seems to prefer Rustad, ironically.

Not really surprising. JJ is one of those people who pretends to be a more moderate conservative, but then will always find justification to support the conservatives no matter how extreme they get

[Islandtime]

A crazy thought....what if the NDP and Conservatives end up with 46 seats each and the Greens keep their riding? Or if in this tie scenario the 'winning party' has to appoint the Speaker?

[BaddieB]

I feel like an independent has a better chance of winning than Furstenau has of winning her riding. She's now running in Downtown Victoria and the closeness of the race might scare off potential green voters.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Islandtime

A crazy thought....what if the NDP and Conservatives end up with 46 seats each and the Greens keep their riding? Or if in this tie scenario the 'winning party' has to appoint the Speaker?

Green will prop up the NDP and the gov will last 1-2 years at most

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

In West Vancouver - Capilano, the independent (and former BC United) candidate is the current MLA, Karin Kirkpatrick. I'd suggest that gives her a reasonable chance of picking up significantly more than just 5-10% of the vote.

There's a precedent - after the SNC-Lavalin thing, Wilson-Raybould ran as an independent and got 32-33% (myself included). Granted, she was given a lot more press than any of the ex-United candidates will have.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Eby announces he's cutting our taxes by $500 a year, a better tax cut than Rustad. Will it work?

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Upon further reflection, I think some of the BC United independents seem stronger than I realized. I look at some of their socials and they seem quite active and outspoken. If a green was able to almost win in Sea to Sky I don't see why Kirkpatrick can't win in her riding.

Don't discount Mike Bernier too, I could see him doing well in Peace River South. Although he was pro-vaccination and pro-SOGI in 2021 so god knows he'll be treated like the devil incarnate up there I'm sure...

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Eby announces he's cutting our taxes by $500 a year, a better tax cut than Rustad. Will it work?

Yet another hypocritical bit of opportunism from Eby. Dangling tax cuts for votes? Anyone would think he’s the conservative!

Mind you, if you’ve already blown a huge hole in provincial finances, digging us all a little deeper in debt probably isn’t a concern.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yet another hypocritical bit of opportunism from Eby. Dangling tax cuts for votes? Anyone would think he’s the conservative!

Mind you, if you’ve already blown a huge hole in provincial finances, digging us all a little deeper in debt probably isn’t a concern.

But it's fine when Rustad does it right? How does Rustad plan to pay for HIS tax cut?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Privatizing healthcare, gutting TransLink and bringing back all the Airbnbs. Duh.

[BaddieB]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Privatizing healthcare, gutting TransLink and bringing back all the Airbnbs. Duh.

Can the province even gut translink? I thought translink got their operational funding from Metro Vancouver. Translink's page mentions government transfers being 19% as of 2019 but examples seem mostly federal.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Can the province even gut translink? I thought translink got their operational funding from Metro Vancouver. Translink's page mentions government transfers being 19% as of 2019 but examples seem mostly federal.

40% of their revenue comes from the provincial gas tax and property tax - if a Rustad administration decides TransLink should "pay for itself," that money'll most likely go elsewhere.

Ironically, the first things to go in a TransLink service cut will be the lesser-used suburban routes full of Con voters... so congrats, hypothetical future White Rock, you've played yourselves.