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Originally Posted by TitleRequired
edited to add:
She probably has a better chance to be an mla than Holt or Coon. Food for thought.
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Not really. First off, Both Holt and Coon are currently MLAs, and Faytene is not, so there’s that. On the off chance that Holt loses her riding, but her party wins the election, she will continue to be an MLA. As is, people are reading too far into the 338 projection in Holt’s riding. The 338 model is clearly flawed at the provincial riding level, when there’s been no noticeable bump in support for the party leader in her own riding. There’s been very scarce polling done recently, and their projections are too heavily influenced by past results. In Holt’s riding especially, their model is not taking is not properly taking into account the fact that she is the Liberal leader currently well ahead of the PCs in provincial wide polls.
At this point, it’s far more likely Faytene loses her riding than Holt does. Despite what the 338.com projections suggest, the Liberals have enlisted a former MP to run against Faytene. A generic candidate would have won the Hampton riding easily for the PCs, but Faytene’s controversial views very much risk polarizing the riding in such a way that her opposition (including traditionally PC voters) rally behind Herron and win a Liberal seat in a historically PC riding. If ever there was a riding for Green and NDP voters to strategically vote for a Liberal candidate , Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins is it. Don’t underestimate how much her controversial religious views will motivate people to get out and vote against her.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad
Faytene is certainly a large millstone around the neck of the PC Party.
I hope she loses - badly................
I also hope that her presence on the ticket doesn't affect other more reasonable Tory candidates.
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Considering how widespread the opposition to her controversial views are, I’d have to say your hope is probably misguided. People can praise her groundgame and ability to sell NB PC memberships all they want, but all Faytene has really done is rally the far right PC base, and polarized the opposition. She hasn’t helped the PCs attract undecided voters provincial wide, if anything, she’s actually hurt them in that regard.
This election won’t be decided by which party has the bigger base, it will be decided by the voters in the middle who can be convinced.