The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonRad]

It should be noted that Mayor Arnold was not just tooting her own horn. All the provincial party leaders will be present at a civic meeting I believe tomorrow. She just wanted to remind them prior to the next election how important Moncton is to the provincial economy.

[jonny golden]

49 per cent of new building permits

This is the one that stands out the most for me. And knowing what's in the pipeline, Moncton is poised for some major development over the next few years. I think we're going to see a big construction year in 2025.

[adamuptownsj]

I've said it was likely before, but by the next (2030?) provincial boundary redistribution, Moncton will 100% go from 4.5 to 5.5 seats-worth of electors in city limits alone. The new seat will basically leap from the North Shore to Moncton proper. I'd need more data to see where it would come from, and technically the boundaries are drawn from scratch each time, but any of the three Restigouche seats or or the sole Gloucester seat without an 'urban' centre, Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit, would be the most likely candidates.

The greater Moncton area will almost certainly see its seats shrink geographically so rural tendrils from both Route 1 and Kent County can encroach, so Dieppe could (and should) end up with an actual all-urban seat by then.

The cloud of Moncton will only continue to increase at the expense of the north, while the balance of power in the rest of the province will shift much less dramatically. It's entirely possible the Westmorland-Albert area will support 15 or more ridings before too long as the north empties out.

[KnoxfordGuy]

A rising tide lifts all boats.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

A rising tide lifts all boats.

Well, the Petitcodiac is a tidal river................

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

The cloud of Moncton will only continue to increase at the expense of the north, while the balance of power in the rest of the province will shift much less dramatically. It's entirely possible the Westmorland-Albert area will support 15 or more ridings before too long as the north empties out.

The "cloud of Moncton"????

Sounds like something nefarious............

Granted Moncton is the favoured destination for intraprovincial migration from the north, but, Moncton also does well from both interprovincial and international migration as well.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The "cloud of Moncton"????

Sounds like something nefarious............

Granted Moncton is the favoured destination for intraprovincial migration from the north, but, Moncton also does well from both interprovincial and international migration as well.

Clout** I meant clout lol.

It's not quite 1+1 math. Working in the North Shore's favour is an older and citizen-heavy population with very high turnout. Since boundaries are drawn by electors, not population, they hang on to seats they would otherwise lose with US-style counting by population.

But the international and interprovincial migration of 2021-2023 to Moncton will produce voters by 2028, in addition to the steady intraprovincial flow that's happened for years. The question is how many.

The north is the only part of the province shrinking in raw numbers. I would like 2023 or 2024 estimates, and would not be surprised if Gloucester flipped back into growth. But the three northwestern counties are not doing well.

2021 census
Gloucester 78,300 (-0.2%)
Madawaska 32,600 (-0.4%)
Restigouche 30,700 (-0.8%)
Victoria 18,300 (-1.6%)

My back-of-the-envelope math has, even if these ridings keep their elector RAW NUMBER the same through the next two elections, their SHARE of electors will continue to slide down, the only question is how fast. The Moncton-North Shore dynamic is purely electoral, not a literal movement of people from one to the other, for the most part.

The non-Moncton-Anglo-county dynamics are a little less dramatic and somewhat of a wash, as a whole.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Unemployment rate in select maritme cities in June 2024

HRM 5.8
Fredericton 4.8
Charlottetown 6.4
Summerside 6.8
Moncton 5.7
Saint John 6.6
CBRM 8.6

[new kid in town]

N.B. nurse exodus the worst in Canada: new study
As of late 2022, 80 of every 100 workers had left their job before their 35th birthday

Source: https://tj.news/new-brunswick/n-b-nurse-exodus-the-worst-in-canada-new-study#comments-area

Nurses voted "No" on recent negotiations with provincial government. Bad enough on its own, worse when you consider the population growth of the province.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

N.B. nurse exodus the worst in Canada: new study
As of late 2022, 80 of every 100 workers had left their job before their 35th birthday

Source: https://tj.news/new-brunswick/n-b-nurse-exodus-the-worst-in-canada-new-study#comments-area

Nurses voted "No" on recent negotiations with provincial government. Bad enough on its own, worse when you consider the population growth of the province.

I work in healthcare, and this is the biggest issue with any of the frontline medical professions. Nurses, Paramedics, Doctors, Care-Aids, all are leaving in droves (not for other provinces but other careers). Recruitment is not the answer now, though it is often promoted as the solution. One must plug the holes in the bucket before assuming that more water is the cure.

All I can do is speak for myself here as I do not profess to have the solution for all. These are some of the issues I see (and money is not the primary issue at all).

-Menial tasks bog down the caring professions. Tasks that could be completed by anyone fall to the nurses and eat up so much time that should be used for tasks that can be exclusively provided by certain levels of care. For Paramedics, it is not the increased call volumes and short staffing, but the constant coverage and driving around all night to cover other areas, that is killing the zeal for the job.

-They are over managed and under-supported. Far too many folks in management in health all vying for some input into how care is provided, but contributing very little. It would be frightening to see a care/service provider to non-care/service provider ratio in healthcare. It is also very hard to see your manager take the 4th vacation this year when you have not had a vacation approved for years due to short staffing.

-NB also has to deal with language issues. EVERY province is hemorrhaging medical staff, but language is a barrier to many who may hope for career advancement and flexibility in this province. If that is your issue why not just go where the language issue, is not an issue?

-Continuing education supports are few and far between. There is plenty of corporate training and risk management courses, but care providers are looking increase their knowledge or employability and very few workplaces support the latter. Supporting more nurses who wish to upgrade (LPN-RN-NP) or Paramedics who want to upgrade to Advanced Care Paramedics, would be a great start.

Pipe dream here but is care providers could retire early (RCMP/Military ish) That would keep people in the professions as well.

[MonctonRad]

Excellent post.

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

-They are over managed and under-supported. Far too many folks in management in health all vying for some input into how care is provided, but contributing very little. It would be frightening to see a care/service provider to non-care/service provider ratio in healthcare. It is also very hard to see your manager take the 4th vacation this year when you have not had a vacation approved for years due to short staffing.

THIS IN SPADES!!!!

There are now at least four different bureaucratic layers in the provincial health care system. Each succeeding layer is further removed from the front line, and, increasingly obstructive and stultifying. The inertia is suffocating and demoralizing. Nothing of consequence that could ameliorate the situation on the ground occurs. I dare you to find a manager willing to take a risk. The fear and paralysis in health care management is beyond the pale.

I have been a physician in this province since 1989. When I first got here, each hospital functioned as an independent entity, and, the senior managers knew who the physicians and senior nursing staff were. If there was a problem, I could walk down to the executive wing of the hospital and talk to the responsible VP about it. Usually they were helpful and something was done.

Do you think this is still the case?????

On a personal level, I have been burnt out for at least 12-15 years, but, I keep on going because I genuinely like what I do and think I make a positive difference. I know that my mental health is suffering however, and, at age 67, I know that when I do retire that my "golden years" will be brief.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

On a personal level, I have been burnt out for at least 12-15 years, but, I keep on going because I genuinely like what I do and think I make a positive difference. I know that my mental health is suffering however, and, at age 67, I know that when I do retire that my "golden years" will be brief.

That's a bummer to hear, but I empathize with it and can relate to a degree. I've probably been in the same boat for the past 5 myself.

[sailor734]

"One must plug the holes in the bucket before assuming that more water is the cure."


Best line I've heard in awhile!

My youngest is a RN who graduated about 5 years ago. She recently told me that out of 6 members of her university study group only one is working on a floor in a hospital......and that person is actively looking for other options.

It's not all about the money in every case. Many young nurses find nursing as it currently exists to be stressful, frustrating and unfulfilling.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

-They are over managed and under-supported. Far too many folks in management in health all vying for some input into how care is provided, but contributing very little.

As a nurse, you are on point with this. Too many middle management positions being made to tell frontline nurses how to do the job better or to answer call-bells faster. We're always told there's not enough funding to create more positions even for LPNs or PCAs and yet these middle managers are definitely getting paid more than any staff on the bedside.

To add insult to injury, they keep advertising the goal is to improve patient and family engagement. Well it's just not humanly possible to do that without creating more direct care positions!

[Bishop2047]

Quarterly population estimates as of July 1st for the Atlantic:

Nova Scotia: 1,076,374 up 4,867 since April 1

New Brunswick: 854,355 up 5,187 since April 1

Newfoundland and Labrador: 545,247 up 2,106 since April 1

PEI: 178,550 up 1,232 since April 1

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2019036-eng.htm

[MonctonRad]

NB population growth has slowed. We are currently sitting at about 863,000 according to the population clock, only 18,000 more than at the beginning of the year, The annual growth rate therefore will likely be about 21,000 this year.

If this rate is maintained, it will likely be 2032 before we hit the million mark, but, I expect the growth rate will decrease even further with the new restrictions on students and TFWs. We might not see a million New Brunswickers until 2035-40.

I wonder what this will mean for the urban growth rates for the three NB cities???

[KnoxfordGuy]

Growth in Moncton and Fredericton have been stable for a decade or more. Saint John will be the one to watch.

[Taeolas]

Yeah Fredericton's growth rate will probably drop back down to "Steady" from it's current "Explosive" levels. But the trimming of the Foreign Student numbers may nudge it a bit lower. Still, it has normal growth and Military growth to draw from, so it should be fine.

Moncton similarly will probably cool from "Nuclear" growth levels just down to "Explosive" ones. It's got the French angle to draw new people with, and it's basically The destination for the province in general.

Saint John will probably be the one to watch closest and may need some additional help going forward. It's the city that's most recently recovered and its growth factors are still fragile. Still, I don't think its growth is as tied to TFW's nor Foreign Students, so it may be more sheltered from those cutbacks. The important thing will be if it can keep luring people in in general.

[Bishop2047]

TJ on Housing Prices

While sales were a whopping 17.3 per cent below the five-year average and 5.7 per cent below the 10-year average for September, they still climbed slightly from the same time last year.

Year-over-year sales were up 12.2 per cent in Fredericton, and 8.3 per cent in Greater Moncton, but fell 3.8 per cent in northern and valley regions, and dropped 7.3 per cent in Saint John.

“Sales ticked up slightly compared to last September, though still below the usual pace for this time of year. The number of newly listed properties are holding steady and we’re seeing more homes on the market compared to last year,” New Brunswick Real Estate Board chair Mike Power said in the CREA report.

“Overall, the market is holding steady, walking the line between a seller’s market and balanced conditions.”

The average price of New Brunswick homes sold in September was $327,182.

In Greater Moncton, it was $362,517, and in Saint John, it was $351,604. In Fredericton, the average price was $343,997, and in the north it was $212,189.

The total value of September sales was $265.3 million.

From CREA

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

NB population growth has slowed. We are currently sitting at about 863,000 according to the population clock, only 18,000 more than at the beginning of the year, The annual growth rate therefore will likely be about 21,000 this year.

If this rate is maintained, it will likely be 2032 before we hit the million mark, but, I expect the growth rate will decrease even further with the new restrictions on students and TFWs. We might not see a million New Brunswickers until 2035-40.

I wonder what this will mean for the urban growth rates for the three NB cities???

I would imagine that it will affect the growth rates of all CMA's across the country. We should still be keeping up with the best of them.