Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Neither PCs or Liberals are getting below 40% this time, Liberals have popular vote edge, Greens stagnant, PA vote vanishes. At least, it fits my priors.

You wanna bet?

Considering the PCs only got 39% last time in the pandemic ploy election that got then their majority, it’s very much within the realm of possibility that they get 39% or below this time. (The PCs got 31% in 2018)

Liberals will need 43% or more to get a majority, but that’s not their only path to form government. A minority situation could very well be possible, and possibly even preferable.

[TitleRequired]

Has anyone fact checked the PC assertions on the healthcare file?

Assertions:
Here’s our progress in only six years:
• Health investments up almost $1 billion per year
• 120+ new doctors, 1000+ new nurses
• 40% increase in nurse practitioners
• Decreased wait times in primary care by 70% thanks to NB Health Link and Evisit NB
• 57 new collaborative health care clinics with more to come
• Reduced hip and knee surgery wait times significantly

This is outside of the planned increased role for other healthcare providers announced yesterday.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Has anyone fact checked the PC assertions on the healthcare file?

Assertions:
Here’s our progress in only six years:
• Health investments up almost $1 billion per year
• 120+ new doctors, 1000+ new nurses
• 40% increase in nurse practitioners
• Decreased wait times in primary care by 70% thanks to NB Health Link and Evisit NB
• 57 new collaborative health care clinics with more to come
• Reduced hip and knee surgery wait times significantly

This is outside of the planned increased role for other healthcare providers announced yesterday.

Most of those statements are meaningless without context.

Are those net increases in MD's and nurses or merely new hire to replace those that have left or retired? If net have the increases outpaced any normal increases in demand from population growth?

40% increase in NP's compared to what baseline? Going from 10 to 14 would be almost meaningless. Going from 100 to 140 would be significant.

To me the only metrics that matter are a reduction in the number of people without a regular, ongoing quality source of primary care that can be accessed in a acceptable timeframe, a reduction in wait times for specialist consults, surgical procedures, diagnostic imaging, hospital admissions and time to be seen in an ER to a level in keeping with medically recommended targets.

Even if all those statements are technically true (and I expect that they are) how far have they gone to fix the issues? Are the problems of waitlists and access improved by 5% or 75%....( or not improved at all because the problems are growing faster than the fixes?) big difference.

As always, when any politician from any party makes statements like these, the devil is in the details. What they have done is far less important than the effects of what they have done.

[MonctonRad]

Excellent response.

The devil is indeed in the details.

Another thing to consider is that the provincial population has increased by nearly 100,000 people in the last five years. Are Higgs "improvements" keeping up with population growth???

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

To me the only metrics that matter are a reduction in the number of people without a regular, ongoing quality source of primary care that can be accessed in a acceptable timeframe, a reduction in wait times for specialist consults, surgical procedures, diagnostic imaging, hospital admissions and time to be seen in an ER to a level in keeping with medically recommended targets.

I got seen by my doctor within an hour of phoning recently, and had blood tests accomplished two hours later. No Drama.

She works in a collaborative care clinic, so I have been seen by others at the clinic when she was unavailable.

Recognizing anecdotes != facts; I don't have any complaints.

I haven't had any problems accessing specialists either, nor my spouse.

We don't suffer from boomer adjacent illnesses; cataracts, hips, knees, prostate; so I can't comment on accessing those items.

I wonder what's the leadtime to from initiation to hire for a GP and Specialists?

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Excellent response.

The devil is indeed in the details.

Another thing to consider is that the provincial population has increased by nearly 100,000 people in the last five years. Are Higgs "improvements" keeping up with population growth???

Have any of the political parties talked about building more hospitals? Or increasing capacity? Would we even be able to staff them? Just curious.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

Have any of the political parties talked about building more hospitals? Or increasing capacity? Would we even be able to staff them? Just curious.

The issue isn't hospitals.....(in fact many professionals would argue we have too many small hospitals unsuited for 21st century care....but that's another debate) The issue is staffing and the structure of our healthcare system.

If you were going to build anything build (and staff) nursing home beds to get the 100's of bedblockers out of our hospitals so those beds can go to people who medically need to be there.

If I was King of Healthcare I'd transport every single medically discharged patient to the closest Dept of Human Development office and say "Here you go....these people are your responsibility, you take care of them"

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by sailor734

The issue isn't hospitals.....(in fact many professionals would argue we have too many small hospitals unsuited for 21st century care....but that's another debate) The issue is staffing and the structure of our healthcare system.

If you were going to build anything build (and staff) nursing home beds to get the 100's of bedblockers out of our hospitals so those beds can go to people who medically need to be there.

If I was King of Healthcare I'd transport every single medically discharged patient to the closest Dept of Human Development office and say "Here you go....these people are your responsibility, you take care of them"

Doug Ford has solutions 😂

https://www.thespec.com/news/ontario/con...7eaa003-8275-5c70-b7f4-42e3c4fb6611.html

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Doug Ford has solutions 😂

https://www.thespec.com/news/ontario/con...7eaa003-8275-5c70-b7f4-42e3c4fb6611.html

Those solutions make sense....although I would suggest there need to be tweaks. Perhaps a regime where people are send temporarily to the first available LTC bed but maintain their position on the waiting list for a spot in the facility of their choice?

The important thing is to get bed blockers who do not need acute care out of acute care hospital beds.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

Have any of the political parties talked about building more hospitals? Or increasing capacity? Would we even be able to staff them? Just curious.

Not that I’ve heard of. Building new hospitals and expanding/upgrading the ones we already have makes a lot of sense though.

Obviously, we need to build more nursing homes to get free up beds in our hospitals, but investing in our hospitals seems pretty obvious.

The Liberals want to introduce a community clinic model, but I’m not sure if they will serve as a walk in clinic. New Brunswick didn’t have walk in clinics: we have call in clinics. We need walk in clinics, badly.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Not that I’ve heard of. Building new hospitals and expanding/upgrading the ones we already have makes a lot of sense though.

Obviously, we need to build more nursing homes to get free up beds in our hospitals, but investing in our hospitals seems pretty obvious.

The Liberals want to introduce a community clinic model, but I’m not sure if they will serve as a walk in clinic. New Brunswick didn’t have walk in clinics: we have call in clinics. We need walk in clinics, badly.

Community clinics (as I understand it) would have a patient roster and would serve as the primary care source for those people. They would be based on a collaborative care model and that is something that the majority of new family docs would prefer. They would also include access to NP's for more routine care. Thus freeing up doctors for more complex patients.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Community clinics (as I understand it) would have a patient roster and would serve as the primary care source for those people. They would be based on a collaborative care model and that is something that the majority of new family docs would prefer. They would also include access to NP's for more routine care. Thus freeing up doctors for more complex patients.

They definitely sound like a positive change. However, we still desperately need walk in clinics... something that is so common in other Canadian provinces.

We don't have walk in clinics here in NB, we have call in clinics, and you must call early in the morning to even have a chance to get in to see a doctor the same day.

In turn, here in SJ we have many people going to St. Joseph's or even the Regional Hospital for ailments that people in other provinces would go to a walk in clinic for.

[TitleRequired]

Coming soon to a green/yellow/red zone near you.

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/more/they-li...t-university-avenue-encampment-1.7049794

[TitleRequired]

I wonder if the liberal party knows the background of the Montreal Economic Institute?

Maxim Bernier was a former Vp; and has called for fiscal conservatism, scores along with the manning centre as a right wing think tank.

Dear liberal party, these ain’t your friends.

[Sunnybrae]

Originally Posted by sailor734

The issue isn't hospitals.....(in fact many professionals would argue we have too many small hospitals unsuited for 21st century care....but that's another debate) The issue is staffing and the structure of our healthcare system.

If you were going to build anything build (and staff) nursing home beds to get the 100's of bedblockers out of our hospitals so those beds can go to people who medically need to be there.

If I was King of Healthcare I'd transport every single medically discharged patient to the closest Dept of Human Development office and say "Here you go....these people are your responsibility, you take care of them"

But bedblockers are not news. This has been going on for decades under multiple governments. Both cons and libs are responsible for this mess. I guess pointing fingers is easier than building nursing homes.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

But bedblockers are not news. This has been going on for decades under multiple governments. Both cons and libs are responsible for this mess. I guess pointing fingers is easier than building nursing homes.

100% agree. Past Liberal and PC administrations own this issue. It is simple math and demographics. Everybody knew it was coming but nobody was able or willing to spend the money and to shoulder the ongoing costs of a greatly increased LTC system.

When you combine demographics with advances in healthcare that have resulted in people living longer (often very frail and with multiple health issues in their final years) you have a perfect storm.

edit.....and it's not just building nursing homes, it's staffing them once built. There are examples of existing facilities not able to operate at capacity do to staffing shortages.

[TitleRequired]

Originally Posted by Sunnybrae

But bedblockers are not news. This has been going on for decades under multiple governments. Both cons and libs are responsible for this mess. I guess pointing fingers is easier than building nursing homes.

Yes and no. There are over 1000 beds built according to the 2018-2023 plan on the Social Development website. I wish the 2024-20xx plan was published.

Some are "memory beds" more suitable for dementia patients, for what that's worth.

One of the items I noted, anecdotally, is the reticence of moving to a nursing home until too late. A neighbor of mine died in hospital years ago, even though she was immobile due to aggressive arthritis. Had she played ball previously with the offer to be put on a waiting list she would have transitioned more easily to the nursing home; and would have had better last days. She would have qualified for placement easily five years prior; and could have stayed at home while the clock ran down on the waiting list.

In contrast, my grandmother inlaw had the means to pay shannex. She transitioned through levels of care at shannex on her own accord. Her final days were simply more aligned with her wishes; and acceptance of the inevitable.

This is all recognizing anecdote != fact.

[TitleRequired]

What is on everyone's debate bingo card.

I have:

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

What is on everyone's debate bingo card.

I have:

Even though governments try and portray them as separate issues I think Nursing homes and healthcare are pretty closely linked. In fact in many jurisdictions LTC homes fall under the jurisdiction of the Dept of Health.

In terms of what you are missing I'd say Housing and general cost of living issues.

Proposals to deal with homelessness/street crime/drug abuse/mental health etc should play well in the urban areas. I think a "tough on crime" style stance would resonate with some.

Rightly or wrongly concerns over climate change seem to fall down the list of people's priorities in times of pressing economic issues............To Quote James Carville "It's the economy stupid"

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Re: Mainstreet, it's easiest to just factor out undecideds [edit- cmon Mainstreet 18% undecided is laughable, push your participants please]. I agree there's likely 'undecided' PC voters to the right of Higgs, but I don't like to unskew.

Taking the poll at face value we get

35 + 32 + 10 + 3 = 80% decided voters

Libs 35/80 = 43.75
PCs 32/80 = 40
Greens 10/80 = 12.5
PA 3/80 = 3.75

Which sure seems like a more useful figure than those goofball numbers in the low 30s. Neither PCs or Liberals are getting below 40% this time, Liberals have popular vote edge, Greens stagnant, PA vote vanishes. At least, it fits my priors.

I should have looked at the poll itself, apologies to Mainstreet. They did poll more detail than the stupid toplines in the TJ/CBC. 2020 with Liberals up 7 at the expense of PA (5%)/Green (2%)... but of course there's likely PA > PC > Lib churn hidden behind that.

50% of PA voters going PC and 10% of PC voters going Liberal doesn't help the PCs much and would probably reduce their electoral efficiency pretty strongly, as a lot of rural Anglo NB would become as blue as Acadian areas are red.

Party - all voters - decided+undecided voters (not sure how this differs) - decided voters

Liberals 35 - 38 - 41
PCs 32 - 35 - 39
Greens 10 - 12 - 13
PA 3 - 3 - 4
Other 2 - 3 - 3
Undecided 18 - 8 - 0

In filing news, Libertarians now have 10 candidates on the board. So they will not be deregistered after this cycle.

St Croix becomes the first riding with seven candidates (the 5 'regular' parties, a Libertarian, and an independent). Two others have 6.