Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread - Page 59

TitleRequired · #**1161** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 2:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lirette

Both of the posts above support my original claim that the party is moving more in the direction of Faytene Grassichi and less in the direction of Daniel Allain so I guess everyone is in agreeance?

The entire point of my post was to respond to the claim that Faytene was some outlier that would get diluted in the legislature. Due to various things you both mentioned in your posts, she will no longer be an outlier type but a strong loyal solider whos voice will be elevated with a Higgs victory. You can support that move or not support that move, but it is the reality.

You make it sound like its the next season of handmaid's tale. Why would elevating her voice matter? Her religion or her gender?

I will easily concede she is not the ideal candidate for Hampton. But that was Gary Crossman's fault for not schooling his hand picked successor -- it was clear that Faytene was running, could get the vote out, had a megaphone at the ready. This was no coronation, but the perspective candidate expected it to be. Which is why he isn't a candidate today and Faytene is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It causes me great discomfort that the party is ceasing to be the Progressive Conservative Party, and more of a "Reform" Conservative Party.

Will it affect my vote this time around? Probably not (unless I lived in Faytene's riding), but, my attention has been gained, and I will be observing the future direction of the party very carefully. If the rightward drift continues, then my long term support might become very shaky.

Please advise which bills that got royal assent represent a 'rightward shift'?

https://www.legnb.ca/en/legislation/bills/60/3

Pugsley · #**1162** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 2:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It causes me great discomfort that the party is ceasing to be the Progressive Conservative Party, and more of a "Reform" Conservative Party.

Will it affect my vote this time around? Probably not (unless I lived in Faytene's riding), but, my attention has been gained, and I will be observing the future direction of the party very carefully. If the rightward drift continues, then my long term support might become very shaky.

I think in NB, historically, we've all been relatively in the "centre" politically and culturally. In the US, we'd be a classic Purple State. Every time we feel things getting too "right", there is a massive swing to the "left" to over-correct, and vice-versa. This election will be interesting. I feel the party that shows itself to be more "centre" and more importantly HAS A VISION will ultimately win this time around. Personally, I think Faytene is not going to do any favours for the Conservatives when it comes to the old-guard of NB. She's a "come from away", she's politically outspoken, and represents a far-right extremist ideology. Yes, she has an audience, but the broader old-guard NB voter is far more centre-minded and votes for vision and self-interest.

The old-guard really wants three key things:

1) Lower cost of living (aka Lower Taxes or Day to day costs),
2) Improved Services (aka Better Hospitals, Roads, and Schools), and
3) Overall Value from the Politician They Elect (aka Progress on key issues and less time wasted on Politically-motivated issues)

For the last one, we've seen time and time again a sort of "revolt against the king" mentality with politicians. Historically, this is how NB'ers have voted regardless of party - like a big pendulum that swings. So, this should be an interesting election.

Personally, I predict a Liberal Majority akin to Frank McKenna's...when the Province was fed up with the reign of Richard Hatfield and several members of the then PC party and wanted new blood and direction. Then in 6-8 more years, you'll see it swing again to favour the PCs IF...they get themselves organized and focused on a clear vision and direction for the voters. My prediction anyhow.

lirette · #**1163** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 3:21 PM**

.

lirette · #**1164** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 3:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

You make it sound like its the next season of handmaid's tale. Why would elevating her voice matter? Her religion or her gender?

Sorry, this is the 2nd time I've engaged with you on an issue and you just cannot have a good faith conversation without straw manning and projecting a bunch of additional claims onto me. Unfortunately its not helpful or productive so I'll see myself out.

TitleRequired · #**1165** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 3:32 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lirette

Sorry, this is the 2nd time I've engaged with you on an issue and you just cannot have a good faith conversation without straw manning and projecting a bunch of additional claims onto me. Unfortunately its not helpful or productive so I'll see myself out.

You keep using that word.
https://youtu.be/G2y8Sx4B2Sk?si=CaJaYrMII4SLDYFX

MonctonRad · #**1166** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 3:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pugsley

Personally, I predict a Liberal Majority akin to Frank McKenna's...when the Province was fed up with the reign of Richard Hatfield and several members of the then PC party and wanted new blood and direction.

No, it won't be that bad. The rural south and west of the province will remain solidly blue, and the anglophone/francophone divide in the province will ensure a PC presence in SJ, Freddy and west end Moncton/Riverview.

The Liberals will no doubt win the popular vote, but, their vote is highly inefficient (coronations in most northern/Acadian ridings).

There is still a chance Higgs might eek out a weak majority/minority government, but, it will be a very near thing. If he does, the government will not last the full four years, he will have lost his ability to fully control the legislative agenda and he will likely have to resign within the year.

But, if Holt overperforms in the campaign, she could end up doing quite well. This is what the election really hinges on - how Holt presents herself in the campaign.

TitleRequired · #**1167** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 4:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But, if Holt overperforms in the campaign, she could end up doing quite well. This is what the election really hinges on - how Holt presents herself in the campaign.

This highlights one item of the Conservative strategy. Taking away the ability for the federal party to help out visibly, lest they suggest that Holt and Trudeau are carbon tax bedfellows.

Gallant had significant help from Trudeau, the current conservative narrative impedes this.

sailor734 · #**1168** Posted **Sep 6, 2024, 5:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

This highlights one item of the Conservative strategy. Taking away the ability for the federal party to help out visibly, lest they suggest that Holt and Trudeau are carbon tax bedfellows.

Gallant had significant help from Trudeau, the current conservative narrative impedes this.

Agreed. Holt needs to do everything she can to avoid any connection with Trudeau in the minds of voters. I know a Liberal candidate and they tell me that most people they meet while door knocking are polite even if they are not supporting the Liberals. The times they do get a nasty response it usually includes references to Trudeau.

TitleRequired · #**1169** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 10:10 AM**

Long keeps up his Trudeau attacks.

https://archive.ph/xdgsX

What’s his post-mp career again?

adamuptownsj · #**1170** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 1:55 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Long keeps up his Trudeau attacks.

https://archive.ph/xdgsX

What’s his post-mp career again?

PCs win this fall: NB Liberal leadership.

NB Liberals win this fall: Run for mayor in 2026 (I still can't believe two successive councils get 5-year terms for no particular reason).

gtsoc · #**1171** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 2:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

PCs win this fall: NB Liberal leadership.

NB Liberals win this fall: Run for mayor in 2026 (I still can't believe two successive councils get 5-year terms for no particular reason).

Wayne doesn't live in the City of Saint John - can he still run for mayor?

TitleRequired · #**1172** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 2:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by gtsoc

Wayne doesn't live in the City of Saint John - can he still run for mayor?

He doesn't? What’s the community he lives in then?

adamuptownsj · #**1173** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 2:24 PM**

IIRC Rothesay, but it's not like it would be a challenging move.

gtsoc · #**1174** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 3:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

IIRC Rothesay, but it's not like it would be a challenging move.

He lives on the Peninsula. I doubt he uproots and moves just to run for Mayor.

TitleRequired · #**1175** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 5:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

PCs win this fall: NB Liberal leadership.

NB Liberals win this fall: Run for mayor in 2026 (I still can't believe two successive councils get 5-year terms for no particular reason).

I wish him luck. I’m sure his demonstrated fair weather friendship with Trudeau to get elected, and now disparaging this same boss in public won’t close any doors in the future.

drewber · #**1176** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 10:04 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by TitleRequired

Long keeps up his Trudeau attacks.

https://archive.ph/xdgsX

What’s his post-mp career again?

Rumour is the earliest a federal election will be called would be spring 2025 when the budget is put forward. Lots of time for the liberal party to switch out Trudeau if they think they will give them a shot in heck of pulling out another minority.

TitleRequired · #**1177** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 10:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drewber

Rumour is the earliest a federal election will be called would be spring 2025 when the budget is put forward. Lots of time for the liberal party to switch out Trudeau if they think they will give them a shot in heck of pulling out another minority.

Isn’t the winter weather in Ottawa suitable for nocturnal snowy walks in the snow shortly?

sailor734 · #**1178** Posted **Sep 7, 2024, 11:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drewber

Rumour is the earliest a federal election will be called would be spring 2025 when the budget is put forward. Lots of time for the liberal party to switch out Trudeau if they think they will give them a shot in heck of pulling out another minority.

Remember the Liberals are now a minority with no supply and confidence agreement in place. What's to say they could retain the confidence of parliament while they went through an accelerated leadership campaign?

I think it's becoming more and more apparent that JT will lead them into the next campaign whether it is spring or fall 2025

TitleRequired · #**1179** Posted **Sep 8, 2024, 12:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by sailor734

Remember the Liberals are now a minority with no supply and confidence agreement in place. What's to say they could retain the confidence of parliament while they went through an accelerated leadership campaign?

I think it's becoming more and more apparent that JT will lead them into the next campaign whether it is spring or fall 2025

Not discounting the cost of a leadership race with the consequence of selecting another Iggy or Dion.

TitleRequired · #**1180** Posted **Sep 8, 2024, 12:35 PM**

Will the hst cut make any difference on the results? How compelling a promise is it?