Canada's Future

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I've only travelled outside of North America about 50 times. Probably more.

Stop putting your foot in your mouth.

mhmm and you saw "gut wrencing poverty" in the US.

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Your ethnicity isn't relevant here. Wait till you learn that non-whites can be bigots towards others too.

Specially Indians. India is the home of the caste system and is considered the most intolerant (specially when it comes to religion) country in the world. Of course we get called racist for callng them out.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ant-countries/

[theman23]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

GO's higher pricing used to deter them even if it meant more seating, cleaner cars and better reliability/punctuality. But the perception of safety has pushed them to be willing to shell out for the premium. Usually you can find plenty of free parking at Fairview TTC after 9am so it's not really an issue.

The premium is less than it used to be if you end up needing to take a local connection (the integrated fare), and GO service has improved (better stations, more frequencies, longer service hours) while the TTC has faltered. I think the TTC's market share has also been eroded by the advent of bike shares and ride hailing apps, which often turn out to be more economical over the short to medium distance travel that used to be the TTC's main function.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Toronto subway ridership has not yet recovered to pre-COVID highs.

Fair point. I just looked. Subway ridership is down 30% relative to 2019. And overall TTC ridership is down 25% relative to 2019. But that's using 2023 numbers.

https://www.ttc.ca/transparency-and-...ansit-planning

Yet, when I look at the numbers I see weekend numbers catching up while weekday ridership is down 34%. That leads me to believe that it's less about safety than simply a change in employment patterns. Especially when I see that GO is down a similar amount. And given trends, they'll probably be back to pre-Covid ridership in 2025.

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

If anything, only Vancouver is the only metro system close to fully recovering.

More than just Vancouver. There's some 905 systems that already recovered. Most famously Brampton hitting a record high last year.

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

There is plenty of outer 416ers who share the same views. Nowadays I know as many 416ers (including those in Scarb) who are choosing GO train over TTC. If the Stoufville line was as frequent as LSE, some of them would have completely ditched TTC a long time ago.

That's the beauty of RER. It'll spread out your suburban friends and the crazies over both rail networks.

[niwell]

Overall TTC ridership is about 85% of what it was right before COVID. The bus system is at virtually 100%, but weekday subway ridership is about 75-80% of 2019. For weekends it goes up to around 90%. Detailed figures aren’t available for 2024 compared to last year but it’s certainly up, and off-peak headways are going to be mostly restored to pre-COVID levels this Fall. Given hybrid schedules it makes sense that weekday ridership would be lower, though on the busiest days (Weds seems to be the peak) it certainly feels pretty much busy as before. Streetcar recovery has been the slowest likely due to a combination of big construction projects and the effects of traffic.

I have coworkers in the outer 416 who have switched to GO when possible but this is primarily due to speed/reliability issues. For some trips slow-zones on the subway can add a significant chunk of time.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Luisito

Specially Indians. India is the home of the caste system and is considered the most intolerant (specially when it comes to religion) country in the world. Of course we get called racist for callng them out.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ant-countries/

If you're getting called out regularly, you might want to ponder why that is. It's one thing to call out actual racism. It's another to suggest that somebody is automatically racist because of their ethnicity. That's, ya know, racism.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Luisito

mhmm and you saw "gut wrencing poverty" in the US.

What's there to about? Really that hard to believe there's some really poor places in the US?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What's there to about? Really that hard to believe there's some really poor places in the US?

I think what's surprising is that someone who's visited 50 countries around the world would be literally shocked by the poverty in the US. Unless one has only visited the top 50 countries by HDI, which I highly doubt is Molson's case.

But sure there is lots of poverty in the US and it's not something one would expect for such a rich country.

Still it's not really shocking or even gut-wrenching by global standards.

Though some people say that it's psychologically a lot harder to be poor in a land of plenty than in a country where everyone is just as poor as you. But I think that's another debate entirely.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by theman23

The premium is less than it used to be if you end up needing to take a local connection (the integrated fare), and GO service has improved (better stations, more frequencies, longer service hours) while the TTC has faltered. I think the TTC's market share has also been eroded by the advent of bike shares and ride hailing apps, which often turn out to be more economical over the short to medium distance travel that used to be the TTC's main function.

Also I would pin it on systemic mis-management by Rick Leary. I'll admit that my lost of faith in the TTC system is also coloured by how intolerably unreliable the streetcar has become, and the incidents on the streetcars I've seen first hand as well (including open air drug use and urination..though I've seen that on the subway as well and almost got smacked at least once). I've come across feces at least once as well, but did not witness the defecation (thankfully).

and to add, because I live in the heart of the city, I use the TTC more often on weekdays, instead of the Saturday crowd coming in for the Blue Jays game.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think what's surprising is that someone who's visited 50 countries around the world would be literally shocked by the poverty in the US. Unless one has only visited the top 50 countries by HDI, which I highly doubt is Molson's case.

But sure there is lots of poverty in the US and it's not something one would expect for such a rich country.

Still it's not really shocking or even gut-wrenching by global standards.

Though some people say that it's psychologically a lot harder to be poor in a land of plenty than in a country where everyone is just as poor as you. But I think that's another debate entirely.

What my parents found shocking when they saw these dilapidated buildings in the Bronx was the fact that it was in the US. They obviously understand poverty. But they couldn't understand how and why the world's richest and most powerful country could ever tolerate this.

As for what is or is not gut wrenching, that's debatable. I didn't see much difference in the slums I went to in Mumbai and the large tent city outside the Food Bank we donated all our stuff to when leaving California. In both cases, terrible.

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

If you're getting called out regularly, you might want to ponder why that is. It's one thing to call out actual racism. It's another to suggest that somebody is automatically racist because of their ethnicity. That's, ya know, racism.

Because with some people its ok to call them out and with others it's not. We even had a person on here saying Indians couldn't be racis. Never said all Indians are racist, but Indian society is MUCH more intolerant than most western countries. Are we to believe automatically drop those views upon entering Canada? If we want to treat people as equals shouldn't we call them out equally?

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What my parents found shocking when they saw these dilapidated buildings in the Bronx was the fact that it was in the US. They obviously understand poverty. But they couldn't understand how and why the world's richest and most powerful country could ever tolerate this.

The burning of the Bronx occurred only in the South Bronx, and the place has been rebuilt entirely. It's hard to even find vacant lots there now. IS it poor yes, is it third world poor, no. The comparison is ridiculous.

As for what is or is not gut wrenching, that's debatable. I didn't see much difference in the slums I went to in Mumbai and the large tent city outside the Food Bank we donated all our stuff to when leaving California. In both cases, terrible.

[/QUOTE]

Again the vast majority of people living in tent cities in California are drug addicts and mentally ill. That is not the samething as slums in third world countries where you will find working families.

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think what's surprising is that someone who's visited 50 countries around the world would be literally shocked by the poverty in the US. Unless one has only visited the top 50 countries by HDI, which I highly doubt is Molson's case.

But sure there is lots of poverty in the US and it's not something one would expect for such a rich country.

Still it's not really shocking or even gut-wrenching by global standards.

Though some people say that it's psychologically a lot harder to be poor in a land of plenty than in a country where everyone is just as poor as you. But I think that's another debate entirely.

The level of drug abuse and despair is gut wrenching but if you get a job and can hold it down, and don't do drugs you can get ahead. There is a reason immigrants from all over the world flood the US and make it.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Disagree. This is very difficult to do. We don't have the transport infrastructure to support massive exurbs. Sure, the rich and really upper middle class will leave. But for the most part, this lot is already splitting time between multiple residences. A decade ago when I was in Toronto, I had a subordinate whose wife inherited a family home on the Oak Ridges Morraine. They were raising two twin daughters in a two bedroom condo at Harbourfront in Toronto and then they would be at the country home every weekend. There's plenty of people who do this.

I guess I misspoke - what you're describing in this post is kind of what I meant - people "maxxing" their presence outside the city.

It could also vary depending on the metro. I could definitely see some of the smaller metros - where there are often plenty of rural areas in close driving distance - hallow out in the style of the American rust belt. Whereas what you're describing will become more common in the bigger metros.

I'm guilty of doing this now. I've bought a rural property and increasingly spend my time there. I don't know if it's urban decline getting to me or just changing lifestyle preference as I get older, but the country is appealing to me now.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What my parents found shocking when they saw these dilapidated buildings in the Bronx was the fact that it was in the US. They obviously understand poverty. But they couldn't understand how and why the world's richest and most powerful country could ever tolerate this.

As for what is or is not gut wrenching, that's debatable. I didn't see much difference in the slums I went to in Mumbai and the large tent city outside the Food Bank we donated all our stuff to when leaving California. In both cases, terrible.

Agreed it's pretty shocking and gut wrenching, as is the poverty you see in Canada's north. While in both cases sure they have a lot more opportunity than the slums of the third world but that doesn't really matter if you are suffering from addictions or even if you are just taught there is no other choice and you are a victim. The journey to a job from the East Baltimore might be shorter than from Attawapiskat but the psychology is similar. Add in actual addiction and trauma and it's as hard a journey as from a slum in Lagos.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I guess I misspoke - what you're describing in this post is kind of what I meant - people "maxxing" their presence outside the city.

It could also vary depending on the metro. I could definitely see some of the smaller metros - where there are often plenty of rural areas in close driving distance - hallow out in the style of the American rust belt. Whereas what you're describing will become more common in the bigger metros.

I'm guilty of doing this now. I've bought a rural property and increasingly spend my time there. I don't know if it's urban decline getting to me or just changing lifestyle preference as I get older, but the country is appealing to me now.

I just can't see it working the same way as the US. Two big reasons come to mind:

1) Transport infrastructure. Have you seen the traffic in the GTA lately? What's it going to be like 10, 20, 30 years from now just getting in/out of the city without major infrastructure improvements? You'll be spending hours getting in and out of the city. And Toronto isn't the only place either. Even smaller metros like Ottawa have terrible traffic. Unlike the GTA it's not 18 hrs per day. That's the difference.

2) Cost. In a country where even an urban condo costs more than half a million, having two homes it's always going to be a luxury reserved for a rather insignificant number of the really wealthy.

The only thing that can genuinely change the equation above is something like a GO RER+ and High Speed Rail making it possible to commute from places like London, Kitchener and Peterborough in a reasonable amount of time. But right now we're still working on RER 1.0 and we're building HFR (not HSR) which we don't know will survive the next election, but if it does will not deliver for at least a decade from now.

Ergo, this flight to the country for the upper class will be rare and reserved to those with money and the job flexibility to do it. I don't think there's even 10% of the population in that bucket.

[Luisito]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Agreed it's pretty shocking and gut wrenching, as is the poverty you see in Canada's north. While in both cases sure they have a lot more opportunity than the slums of the third world but that doesn't really matter if you are suffering from addictions or even if you are just taught there is no other choice and you are a victim. The journey to a job from the East Baltimore might be shorter than from Attawapiskat but the psychology is similar. Add in actual addiction and trauma and it's as hard a journey as from a slum in Lagos.

Speaking of Lagos.

How Nigerian immigrants outpaced Indians and South Africans to be most educated in Britain

https://www.thenationalnews.com/worl...ed-in-britain/


From the US...

According to Census data, more than 43 percent of African immigrants hold a bachelor’s degree or higher -- slightly more than immigrants from East Asia. Nigerian immigrants are especially educated, with almost two-thirds holding college degrees -- a significantly higher percentage even than Chinese or South Korean immigrants. African immigrants are also very likely to hold advanced degrees, many of which are earned at U.S. universities. By many measures, African immigrants are as far ahead of American whites in the educational achievement as whites are ahead of African-Americans.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...el-in-the-u-s-

[Truenorth00]

I think a good way to think about the future is to look at the past. Came across this recently:

Safeway union agreement from 1990 in Canada.

Baker paid $18/hr with a pension and benefits.

Equivalent OF $36/hr NOW, AND HOUSING WAS FOUR TIMES CHEAPER (after accounting for inflation)!

Whatever we did during the last 30 years, undo it all!

https://x.com/Tablesalt13/status/183...lzF8NaTLQ&s=19

In those intervening years, we've lost economic diversity and become more reliant on commodity exports. We've lost unionization. Governments have shrunk a fair bit. And taxes are lower. To make up for lower aggregate demand (which used to be driven by government spending), we've ramped up immigration and credentialing. So I mean if we want to go back to the prosperity of the past we're going to have to some awfully uncomfortable conversations.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think a good way to think about the future is to look at the past. Came across this recently:



https://x.com/Tablesalt13/status/183...lzF8NaTLQ&s=19

In those intervening years, we've lost economic diversity and become more reliant on commodity exports. We've lost unionization. Governments have shrunk a fair bit. And taxes are lower. To make up for lower aggregate demand (which used to be driven by government spending), we've ramped up immigration and credentialing. So I mean if we want to go back to the prosperity of the past we're going to have to some awfully uncomfortable conversations.

Google did not find the latest Safeway agreement. It did find a Save-On-Foods one. So today full time grocery store (non-management) workers top out at $25/hour or $30/hour. Now that is for a licensed pharmacy technician. Still with pension and benefits if full time. The other roles are closer to $20.

https://www.memberresourcecentre.com...24-Website.pdf

I think the real butchers and bakers of 30 years ago don't show up as much in grocery stores these day, what they use to do is generally done in processing plants and not in store. All in the name of efficiency and lower cost.

Yes, that is a different time. When I was growing up in Vancouver I had two neighbors that worked full time as bakers on in a Safeway the other is a SupValu. It was good money and you could raise a family.

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by Luisito

Again the vast majority of people living in tent cities in California are drug addicts and mentally ill. That is not the samething as slums in third world countries where you will find working families.

Originally Posted by Luisito

The level of drug abuse and despair is gut wrenching but if you get a job and can hold it down, and don't do drugs you can get ahead. There is a reason immigrants from all over the world flood the US and make it.

Yeah those lazy drug addicts and mentally ill people don’t count! They deserve to live in tent city slums.