BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament - Page 10

Migrant_Coconut · #**181** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 8:36 PM**

Isn't that how the BC Liberals reformed? Gordon Wilson rebranded them as a centre-left party, but then all the SoCreds jumped ship and made it SoCred 2.0 - guess history repeats itself.

chowhou · #**182** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:02 PM**

New 338Canada model is up:

https://338canada.com/bc/

The model seems to suggest that of the 10% former BC United voters, the BCC are likely to absorb 6/10 and the NDP are likely to absorb 4/10.

Current make-or-break ridings for the BCC seem to be North Vancouver-Seymour, Surrey-Cloverdale, North Island, and one-of Vancouver-Point Grey, Port Moody-Burquitlam, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, and Kooteney Central.

https://338canada.com/bc/districts.htm

Kind of as I suspected.

GenWhy? · #**183** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:11 PM**

If anything it's really interesting to see the NDP polling numbers (44%) stay fairly consistent since over a year ago (45%).

Up from 40% of the vote in 2017 and down just a hair from 2020's 47%

Migrant_Coconut · #**184** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:16 PM**

All seven of those ridings currently lean Dipper... and the Cons have six toss-ups of their own.

chowhou · #**185** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:18 PM**

That's what make-or-break means.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

If anything it's really interesting to see the NDP polling numbers (44%) stay fairly consistent since over a year ago (45%).

Up from 40% of the vote in 2017 and down just a hair from 2020's 47%

Now that the right wing is basically fully united in BC now, it remains to be seen how significant the green spoiler effect is in the toss-up districts, especially in districts like Kootenay Central.

GenWhy? · #**186** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chowhou

Now that the right wing is basically fully united in BC now, it remains to be seen how significant the green spoiler effect is in the toss-up districts.

I'm really interested to see how the internal emotions and politics of the CPBC will roll out and how that is presented / picked up by the public.

I've see this rodeo before in Alberta and it's great television.

chowhou · #**187** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

I'm really interested to see how the internal emotions and politics of the CPBC will roll out and how that is presented / picked up by the public.

I've see this rodeo before in Alberta and it's great television.

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Looks like there is some inevitable reshuffling and hurt feelings over candidate mergings for the Conservatives/BC United:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-conservatives-candidates-bc-united-1.7312028

Looks like it's already begun, and pretty naturally the CPBC (should probably use their real acronym) is starting to moderate (if ever so slightly).

GenWhy? · #**188** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 9:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chowhou

Looks like it's already begun, and pretty naturally the CPBC (should probably use their real acronym) is starting to moderate (if ever so slightly).

The moderation period is definitely interesting as it'll wild to see who ends up actually being in positions of power (old BC United members?). Then is it then just the BC Liberals all over again just with a less terrible re-brand? lol

I honestly have no idea how the UCP in Alberta holds it together but I imagine good bureaucrats are the glue regardless of party in power.

whatnext · #**189** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 11:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chowhou

Looks like it's already begun, and pretty naturally the CPBC (should probably use their real acronym) is starting to moderate (if ever so slightly).

Yes, I see their 5G conspiracy candidate has been dropped in favour of the BC United candidate.

B.C. Conservative candidate who posted about 5G 'genocide' ousted

Tvisforme · #**190** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 11:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chowhou

New 338Canada model is up:

https://338canada.com/bc/

The model seems to suggest that of the 10% former BC United voters, the BCC are likely to absorb 6/10 and the NDP are likely to absorb 4/10.

Current make-or-break ridings for the BCC seem to be North Vancouver-Seymour, Surrey-Cloverdale, North Island, and one-of Vancouver-Point Grey, Port Moody-Burquitlam, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, and Kooteney Central.

https://338canada.com/bc/districts.htm

Kind of as I suspected.

One note regarding the 338 site: the "Metro Vancouver" subpage is missing quite a few ridings, including all three in North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, as well as ridings in New Westminster, Coquitlam, Langley and Maple Ridge.

chowhou · #**191** Posted **Sep 3, 2024, 11:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

One note regarding the 338 site: the "Metro Vancouver" subpage is missing quite a few ridings, including all three in North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, as well as ridings in New Westminster, Coquitlam, Langley and Maple Ridge.

I have absolutely no explanation for this, but the missing districts are all in the "Greater Vancouver" section. Whoever grouped the districts clearly has a bit of a head sickness so we should be compassionate.

https://338canada.com/bc/gvfv.htm

whatnext · #**192** Posted **Sep 4, 2024, 7:12 PM**

Fascinating piece from Keith Baldrey in BIV. Right up to the day before he pulled the plug on BC United Falcon was slamming the Cons:

Baldrey: My coffee with Kevin Falcon — and his shake-up of the 2024 B.C. election
B.C. is now in for an old-fashioned polarized showdown in the 2024 provincial election, says columnist Keith Baldrey.
Keith Baldrey
about 3 hours ago

Last Tuesday, I was invited to have breakfast with B.C. United Party leader Kevin Falcon.

The two of us grabbed a coffee and went for a walk in the James Bay neighbourhood that surrounds the B.C. Legislature.

Our conversation eventually turned to what a nuisance a resurgent B.C. Conservative Party had become for his own party, as poll after poll shows the gap widening between the two parties in terms of public support, with the B.C. Conservatives way out in front.

Falcon criticized that party in harsh tones, telling me the B.C. Conservatives were running candidates who held extreme right-wing views that he wanted no part of.

About an hour later, Falcon stood in a field across from the legislature to announce a forest policy plank in his party’s election platform. When a reporter asked him a question about the B.C. Conservatives, he again blasted the party for its extremist views.

Standing next to Falcon for the announcement was the B.C. United caucus forestry critic, Mike Bernier, who had no idea the dramatic turn of events that would soon engulf him and his fellow B.C. United candidates.

The next day, Falcon joined B.C. Conservative Party leader John Rustad at a news conference, where he announced he was “suspending” his party’s election campaign, effectively derailing his party candidates’ campaigns before they even really began.

The B.C. United board of directors had become increasingly freaked out by the party’s apparent financial problems and inability to raise money and so pressured Falcon into doing a complete 180 and unconditionally surrender to the B.C. Conservatives.

Welcome to B.C. politics, although I have never seen anything even remotely resemble the unprecedented events of last week.

I have witnessed plenty of caucuses throw their leader off the roof but until now I had never seen a leader throw an entire caucus off one.....

https://www.biv.com/news/commentary/bald...shake-up-of-the-2024-bc-election-9472262

logicbomb · #**193** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 5:18 PM**

I would have been ok with the BC United Party. The more I hear about the BCC, the more I freak out thinking about the irreversible decisions that are about to be made and the total loss of all environmental regulations and protections we currently have. The one candidate in my riding keeps going about allowing development in flood prone ALR's which is absolute insanity when there's more desirable areas within the region that are currently undeveloped or underdeveloped.

The NDP's chances keep tanking every single day that goes by. Being too lax on crime and allowing for the current crisis to unfold is significantly impacting them in Metro Van.

whatnext · #**194** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 7:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by logicbomb

I would have been ok with the BC United Party. The more I hear about the BCC, the more I freak out thinking about the irreversible decisions that are about to be made and the total loss of all environmental regulations and protections we currently have. The one candidate in my riding keeps going about allowing development in flood prone ALR's which is absolute insanity when there's more desirable areas within the region that are currently undeveloped or underdeveloped.

The NDP's chances keep tanking every single day that goes by. Being too lax on crime and allowing for the current crisis to unfold is significantly impacting them in Metro Van.

Why be concerned about developing ALR floodplain when Richmond has been increasing its population though building for years?

seamusmcduff · #**195** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 7:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by logicbomb

. The one candidate in my riding keeps going about allowing development in flood prone ALR's which is absolute insanity when there's more desirable areas within the region that are currently undeveloped or underdeveloped.
.

Do you have a source for a candidate saying this? It would be extremely short sited for them to get rid of the ALR. Not only for flooding but for long term resiliency and food security. It's only 5% of the province, and it is farm land that can grow crops that aren't possible in the rest of the country.

I hadnt even considered the implications that they may be considering removing the ALR...

chowhou · #**196** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 8:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by whatnext

Why be concerned about developing ALR floodplain when Richmond has been increasing its population though building for years?

Richmond has well maintained dykes designed to keep an entire ocean out which is right next door and can absorb nearly infinite amounts of water. Need I remind you that every time we have a major flooding event in the Lower Mainland, Richmond is generally unscathed while the Fraser Valley suffers.

Migrant_Coconut · #**197** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 8:21 PM**

Funnily enough, said floodplain was why Richmond wasn't even included in the original Regional Centre plan... but then Brodie kicked up a fuss, and now here we are.

CanSpice · #**198** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 8:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by chowhou

Richmond has well maintained dykes designed to keep an entire ocean out which is right next door and can absorb nearly infinite amounts of water. Need I remind you that every time we have a major flooding event in the Lower Mainland, Richmond is generally unscathed while the Fraser Valley suffers.

Huh weird, I wouldn't call this "generally unscathed".

whatnext · #**199** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 8:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Huh weird, I wouldn't call this "generally unscathed".

Indeed. I'd also suggest finding a CoR employee to tell you how confident they were after the king tide/storm combo at the end of 2022....

chowhou · #**200** Posted **Sep 5, 2024, 9:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Huh weird, I wouldn't call this "generally unscathed".

Compared with the Fraser Valley? Yes 100% generally unscathed. Flooding from torrential rain blocking roads is one thing (Still Creek encounters this every damn year), flooding due to the river bursting its banks (because you live on a floodplain) and destroying highways and forcing emergency evacuations is another thing.

Richmond being on a "flood plain" is absolutely not the same thing as Abbotsford being on a "flood plain".