BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by whatnext

There are federal Liberal voters left? Who knew.

Trudeau supporters:
-Clueless lefties that only care about virtue signaling
-Landlords in cities
-Companies that are in the business of selling LMIA's
-Companies that operate private colleges
-Large percentage of boomers who have benefited off the Ponzi scheme

The rise of conservatism at all levels have come from pissed off youth who have been abandoned by all levels of governments. Sadly, there's no party in this country that would dare tackle contributory factors which have led to unaffordability, wage suppression, unemployment and overcrowding in general (mass immigration). Hell, the UCP in Alberta wants to grow their population to 10 mil!

I actually think there's serious potential for the BC Cons to tap into the frustration by young adults who are either unemployed or priced out of the real estate market
-Campaign on the promise to push the feds into reducing immigration numbers
-Plow down all ALR lands and force development to open up swaths of new housing
-Privatizing all crown corps would open up new job opportunities for youth

Not saying I agree with those points above....but it's a clear way to get the urban vote.

[BaddieB]

Would United dropping out not benefit the NDP because the remaining 9% of united voters be more likely to vote NDP than Conservative, given that those are the remaining few who wouldn't switch over?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Would United dropping out not benefit the NDP because the remaining 9% of united voters be more likely to vote NDP than Conservative, given that those are the remaining few who wouldn't switch over?

If Furstenau and the Greens had their shit together, those are the voters they should be targeting.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Would United dropping out not benefit the NDP because the remaining 9% of united voters be more likely to vote NDP than Conservative, given that those are the remaining few who wouldn't switch over?

I think you missed an important factor; I think you correctly note that the former BC Liberal voters who wanted a more conservative party to support have already jumped ship to the BCC, but you also need to factor in that the former BC Liberal voters who were likely to flee the sinking ship and support the BCNDP post-name change and collapse may have also already jumped ship. The remaining 9% are those who think BC United is still their favourite party despite everything. Of those 9% are they more likely to vote BCNDP or BCC given no other option? That's the kicker methinks.

One important factor, I think, is that the BCNDP was the "enemy" of the BC Liberal party for the past 30 years, so a former BC Liberal voter may simply be a "Not-NDP" voter given no BC Liberal/BC United choice.

Another factor is that according to the agreement BC United will be folding into the BCC, meaning not only are they signalling to their supporters to get behind the BCC, they're also going to be putting some of their incumbents as candidates for the BCC which should retain some candidate-loyal voters.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Would United dropping out not benefit the NDP because the remaining 9% of united voters be more likely to vote NDP than Conservative, given that those are the remaining few who wouldn't switch over?

I don't think so. There are still be many BC voters who don't know who John Rustad is. And once campaigning begins in earnest and Rustad becomes more well known, I think many voters would go back to United

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by djmk

I don't think so. There are still be many BC voters who don't know who John Rustad is. And once campaigning begins in earnest and Rustad becomes more well known, I think many voters would go back to United

There's no United to go back to.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by whatnext

There's no United to go back to.

would but can't.

I really can't see BCC winning. Maybe winning a few more seats but that's about it. Maybe I'll be wrong.

[BaddieB]

My arrogant prediction is the NDP will win by 2 to 5 seats, the Greens will collapse in percent votes, zero seats.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

My arrogant prediction is the NDP will win by 2 to 5 seats, the Greens will collapse in percent votes, zero seats.

Sonia Furstenau is clearly throwing away her seat, but it would take a lot for Adam Olsen to lose his seat, in my opinion.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Sonia Furstenau is clearly throwing away her seat, but it would take a lot for Adam Olsen to lose his seat, in my opinion.

Adam Olsen Announces He Will Not Seek Re-Election in 2024, Will Serve as BC Green Party Campaign Chair

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Sheba

Adam Olsen Announces He Will Not Seek Re-Election in 2024, Will Serve as BC Green Party Campaign Chair

Oh that's news to me, anyway the Greens still seem to be the favourites in his riding and their candidate Rob Botterell is going to have a hard time losing it looks like.

[logicbomb]

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columni...-brings-migration-debate-to-b-c-election

You can now add immigration to the list of big issues in B.C.’s Oct. 19 election.

B.C. Conservative party Leader John Rustad raised the challenge publicly , even before his party was strengthened by the dramatic collapse on Wednesday of B.C. United.

Rustad threw down the gauntlet on social media after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau admitted Monday that his government had welcomed too many low-wage foreign workers and it was time to “invest in Canadian workers and youth.”

Dismissing Trudeau’s gesture as “way too little, way too late,” Rustad went further. He said British Columbians “can’t trust” Trudeau, and the province should have far more powers to set its own migration targets, as Quebec has had since 1991 .

Smart move to tap into a serious issue that the NDP may be hesitant in addressing. There's an overwhelming number of people entering the country and province which has had a direct impact on most people. Youth are especially getting fucked over.

[Migrant_Coconut]

The same BCNDP that just capped the international student intake to 83k, and who've been grilling JT on his refugee policy? There's a lot of words to describe them on immigration, but "hesistant" isn't one of them.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

The same BCNDP that just capped the international student intake to 83k, and who've been grilling JT on his refugee policy? There's a lot of words to describe them on immigration, but "hesistant" isn't one of them.

The Province also has been issuing well under their caps as well. I think they issued 30k less than the cap allowed in 2023

[Migrant_Coconut]

Interesting, if proven accurate.

Former B.C. Liberal minister says he may vote NDP, as Eby woos disaffected centrists

---

Former British Columbia Liberal cabinet minister Terry Lake says he’ll consider voting for Premier David Eby’s New Democrats if the B.C. Conservatives don’t shift to the political centre, especially on the issue of climate change.

Lake, an environment and health minister in former premier Christy Clark’s Liberal government, says in an interview he may have no other choice in his Kamloops riding if B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad maintains his party’s stances on environmental and social issues.

His remarks come as the NDP courts disaffected supporters of BC United, formerly known as the B.C. Liberals, after Leader Kevin Falcon scrapped the Official Opposition’s election campaign and urged voters to support the Conservatives to prevent vote-splitting and the NDP’s re-election in the fall.

An NDP news release quotes Lake and BC United figures, linking their comments about the political upheaval to Eby’s offer to provide a home in the NDP for centrists.

Lake, who also ran for the federal Liberals in Kamloops in 2019, is among several political figures expressing concern this week at the folding of BC United’s campaign

West Vancouver-Capilano BC United MLA Karin Kirkpatrick says Falcon’s move did not consider that middle-of-the-road voters “would be forced to swing to the left.”

Rustad, who was ejected by Falcon from the former B.C. Liberal caucus for his skeptical views on climate science, said this week the Conservatives will not be making changes.

Eby had posted on social media on Thursday that his phone was “blowing up” with calls from former B.C. Liberal voters who could not bring themselves to support Rustad, saying the NDP welcomed such voters with concerns about climate change, reproductive freedom and building up the health care system.

[seamusmcduff]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

]


Smart move to tap into a serious issue that the NDP may be hesitant in addressing.

Only if you ignore the fact that immigration is almost exclusively a federal issue, and that the BCNDP have done about as much as they can on their end.

But I guess it's a compelling thing to make a provincial issue when you know that many of your voters don't seem to know the difference between the provincial and federal governments.

[Bcasey25raptor]

2 polls were released today, one from pallas and another from Angus Reid. Both showing about the same.

NDP leads by 1 in the Pallas poll with 44% to 43% for the Cons
The Angus reid poll has it reversed with the NDP at 43% and the BC Cons at 44%

[BaddieB]

How efficient is the NDP with its voters in ridings?

[chowhou]

The in depth model isn't up on free 338Canada yet, but Philippe J. Fournier is currently projecting a much tighter race now.

338Canada British Columbia update | September 3, 2024

������NDP 49
������CPBC 43
������BCG 1

[47 seats needed for a majority]

The NDP and Conservative projections overlap significantly. Details here ↓

https://x.com/338Canada/status/1831011060872007777

To answer BaddieB, given that the Pallas and Angus Reid polls have the BCC and NDP with statistically even numbers, it looks like the NDP are a bit more efficient with their numbers. I haven't done a deep dive, but when some of the the Northern BC districts look like this, it's hard to imagine the BCC are efficient with their vote.

[whatnext]

Looks like there is some inevitable reshuffling and hurt feelings over candidate mergings for the Conservatives/BC United:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-conservatives-candidates-bc-united-1.7312028