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Posted Aug 28, 2024, 2:58 PM
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Registered User
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 1,952
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thenoflyzone
If by route, you mean LHR-YVR, then I disagree.
First, this year, AC has more seats on YVR-LHR than BA (400 vs 331 a day, each way). Next year, yes, if things stay the way they are, they will drop to second, but it will be a very close second, and not the huge gap you make it out to be.
It's clear YVR is a very important market in Canada for BA. This increase is clearly a step in the right direction for them. However, most of the growth YVR is experiencing by BA has shifted to LGW, and this clearly doesn't seem to bother AC. The reality is, when it comes to YVR-LHR, BA is still nowhere it used to be, historically speaking. They will have to do a lot more than just add 4x weekly frequencies, especially when it's coupled with a downgrade from the A350-1000 to a B772.
When BA was operating double daily 744 service (345 seats) on LHR-YVR back in the day, that was 4,830 seats each way, each week, on the route.
When it was daily A380 (469 seats), that was 3,283 seats.
This year, 1x daily A350 (331 seats), that's 2,317 seats.
Now, 11x weekly 772 (272 seats), that's still only 2,992 seats, only 675 seats more than this year, and still several thousand less than when the B744 operated to YVR, and several hundred less than when the A380 did.
As I said, AC, in terms of seats, has BA beat on YVR-LHR this year, and will be a pretty close second next year (2,800 seats for AC vs 2,992 for BA), assuming they still operate the 400 seater 77W daily on the route. All they'd have to do is increase capacity to the 450 seater, and they'd be right back in top spot. It's only when you add BA's service to LGW that the gap widens, and that's my point. AC seems fine with that. Doubt they have any plans to compete with BA at LGW, especially considering they still hold a few unused slots at LHR, even with the recent YOW-LHR announcement.
Point is, when it comes to the route that matters, and where they actually compete, AC and BA are still very much in a ~50/50 split. No one is eating AC's lunch, not yet anyway.
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I am not distinguishing between LGW and LHR, London is London, and considering BA serves both, it is only fair to include the totals, not just LHR, that makes no sense. It is YVR-London capacity regardless of which airport they use. And I am only referring to the peak summer schedule, we know the doldrums see bare service, I have no issues there, it's always been the case. But your numbers are misleading with just LHR, here is the better example:
Weekly Seat Comparison
BA 777 18x weekly: 5,344
BA 747 twice daily: 4,830
BA A380 once daily: 3,283
So this is by far the highest capacity BA has offered to YVR, and these are the only numbers that count. By comparison, if AC sticks with the 400-seater as they did this summer, that is 2,800 seats. 5,344 seats with 18 frequencies vs. 2,800 seats with 7 frequencies qualifies as them eating AC's lunch during the busiest time of year. And the BA trend is up, AC is flat. My original post was not meant as an "AC hates us, we get nothing" pan-Europe gripe, it was an observation that BA is on the upswing, and taking a larger piece of the market, while AC is just steady. And I am fine with that, I love having a bigger BA presence, I like when foreign carriers boost flights to their key destinations, just like I was happy to see AF increase and use larger aircraft, it was a stretch for AC anyways. As others have said, the economics of West Coast to Europe is complicated, exactly why the US airports are underserved too, it's just how it is. I hope AC stays where they are and we get more foreign service. Icelandair will be 6x weekly this summer, more than they've ever done. Ya it would be nice to get more Europe from AC, but it sure isn't the top of my Wishlist, and isn't that realistic. I'd like more SIN, BKK, DXB type routes, and something South America way before I'd want a 2nd daily LHR flight... And before that, open up the freaking bilaterals for EK and TK, that would be way better for us than anything AC would give.
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