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  #1061  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 10:53 AM
TitleRequired TitleRequired is offline
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Lets play where would you put the "green zones" in SJ.

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/3348?index=3#12/45.2955/-66.0915

This is the map of the household income (2021) per census catchment area. Median household income in SJ ranges from 22k to 129k.

Crescent valley is 46k.

Bets?
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  #1062  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 12:54 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is offline
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Originally Posted by TitleRequired View Post
Lets play where would you put the "green zones" in SJ.

https://censusmapper.ca/maps/3348?index=3#12/45.2955/-66.0915

This is the map of the household income (2021) per census catchment area. Median household income in SJ ranges from 22k to 129k.

Crescent valley is 46k.

Bets?
I'm using slightly different criteria-- they're going to spread these around in commercial areas and provide concierge bus services to bring them uptown all day.
  • Haymarket Square
  • Exhibition site on McAllister
  • Somewhere near Landsdowne/Churchill Blvd- perhaps across from the Y?
  • Vacant land along Fairville Blvd
  • Vacant land in the old North End along Main
  • Current Waterloo sea can nightmare becomes permanent or they push it down the street to the Service Canada parking lot. Maybe into the flatlands east of Crown.
  • Paradise Row shacks get a formal thumbs up

Some very grim options that are likely on the table in order to be pushed back against, to make council seem reasonable:
  • City-owned parking lots on Paddock
  • Market Place west of the community center
  • Literally within Rockwood Park
  • Tin Can Beach

Edit: Also, they aren't going to actually close any other encampments NOT in these areas. The excuse will be 'some are not comfortable at the sanctioned encampments, haha!'

Yellow zones are a wild card.
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  #1063  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 1:34 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is offline
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Originally Posted by adamuptownsj View Post
I'm using slightly different criteria-- they're going to spread these around in commercial areas and provide concierge bus services to bring them uptown all day.
  • Haymarket Square
  • Exhibition site on McAllister
  • Somewhere near Landsdowne/Churchill Blvd- perhaps across from the Y?
  • Vacant land along Fairville Blvd
  • Vacant land in the old North End along Main
  • Current Waterloo sea can nightmare becomes permanent or they push it down the street to the Service Canada parking lot. Maybe into the flatlands east of Crown.
  • Paradise Row shacks get a formal thumbs up

Some very grim options that are likely on the table in order to be pushed back against, to make council seem reasonable:
  • City-owned parking lots on Paddock
  • Market Place west of the community center
  • Literally within Rockwood Park
  • Tin Can Beach

Edit: Also, they aren't going to actually close any other encampments NOT in these areas. The excuse will be 'some are not comfortable at the sanctioned encampments, haha!'

Yellow zones are a wild card.
Cynical but sadly I wouldn't be surprised if you aren't proven right. I'm not sure this whole plan will actually accomplish anything.
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  #1064  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 3:59 PM
TitleRequired TitleRequired is offline
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Originally Posted by adamuptownsj View Post
I'm using slightly different criteria-- they're going to spread these around in commercial areas and provide concierge bus services to bring them uptown all day.
  • Haymarket Square
  • Exhibition site on McAllister
  • Somewhere near Landsdowne/Churchill Blvd- perhaps across from the Y?
  • Vacant land along Fairville Blvd
  • Vacant land in the old North End along Main
  • Current Waterloo sea can nightmare becomes permanent or they push it down the street to the Service Canada parking lot. Maybe into the flatlands east of Crown.
  • Paradise Row shacks get a formal thumbs up

Some very grim options that are likely on the table in order to be pushed back against, to make council seem reasonable:
  • City-owned parking lots on Paddock
  • Market Place west of the community center
  • Literally within Rockwood Park
  • Tin Can Beach

Edit: Also, they aren't going to actually close any other encampments NOT in these areas. The excuse will be 'some are not comfortable at the sanctioned encampments, haha!'

Yellow zones are a wild card.
Can council authorize 'green zones' on private land without the explicit permission of the landowner? Thinking Main street, that's currently for sale.

Also; Exhibition ground are probably too close to glen falls school?

* Literally within Rockwood Park

That would be scary. Epically scary.
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  #1065  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 4:34 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is offline
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Originally Posted by TitleRequired View Post
Can council authorize 'green zones' on private land without the explicit permission of the landowner? Thinking Main street, that's currently for sale.

Also; Exhibition ground are probably too close to glen falls school?

* Literally within Rockwood Park

That would be scary. Epically scary.
No they cannot, but Seth Asimakos has been content to let his lots on Waterloo become an insane zombie encampment. Whether out of the goodness of his heart, or for compensation, or both, I have no clue. So I presume others will do the same.

Interesting how this is OK, but we threaten landlords with expropriation for illegal weed stores on their properties. Maybe they should pivot to meth.

Re: Rockwood, the trailer park site will be vacant by October...

I would put no location past this council to approve, but I think the most salient part of my post is, the whole zone system is a fig leaf. No encampments will be removed from anywhere that isn't a residential suburb or a public square. "I want to do meth in peace, away from other meth addicts" seems to be kosher so far.
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  #1066  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 6:36 PM
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That’s quite the sound bite. Yikes.
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  #1067  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 6:40 PM
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Originally Posted by adamuptownsj View Post
No they cannot, but Seth Asimakos has been content to let his lots on Waterloo become an insane zombie encampment. Whether out of the goodness of his heart, or for compensation, or both, I have no clue. So I presume others will do the same.

Interesting how this is OK, but we threaten landlords with expropriation for illegal weed stores on their properties. Maybe they should pivot to meth.

Re: Rockwood, the trailer park site will be vacant by October...

I would put no location past this council to approve, but I think the most salient part of my post is, the whole zone system is a fig leaf. No encampments will be removed from anywhere that isn't a residential suburb or a public square. "I want to do meth in peace, away from other meth addicts" seems to be kosher so far.

Can the province tho? If they can expropriate homes to build a parking lot for a museum, they should be able to expropriate vacant properties or vacant land. They really ought to do something about all the vacant land in Saint John that goes undertaxed and underdeveloped, regardless of which family or group of companies own a lot of this vacant land. One look at the SNB property assessment site in SJ shows how much vacant and underdeveloped land that exists within the city proper of Saint John.
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  #1068  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 7:03 PM
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Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn View Post
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That’s quite the sound bite. Yikes.


"we have tried nothing, and it doesn't seem to work"
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  #1069  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 7:06 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is offline
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Can the province tho? If they can expropriate homes to build a parking lot for a museum, they should be able to expropriate vacant properties or vacant land. They really ought to do something about all the vacant land in Saint John that goes undertaxed and underdeveloped, regardless of which family or group of companies own a lot of this vacant land. One look at the SNB property assessment site in SJ shows how much vacant and underdeveloped land that exists within the city proper of Saint John.
That's psychotic and dangerous. They can't expropriate just because they want to. They need a valid civic reason to do so- road construction, public works like schools and museums, and so on. They try to avoid expropriation at all costs, preferring to negotiate a purchase above FMV. The only contentious one around here lately was one of the half-dozen homes on St James being demolished for the new school. All the other St James and Douglas owners seem to have accepted their lot and taken the deal offered.

Saying 'hey you know that land you own, that we considered for years to be worthless? We actually are going to take it from you and sell it to someone else to build on, or perhaps create a homeless camp," is not functional or civilized.

The goal is to get lot owners to develop or sell to developers, not for the city to steal stuff and dole it out. Fix assessments and rates on vacant land and make it more expensive to hold onto. I've been saying this for years. I own vacant land I am in no hurry to build on, because it costs next to nothing to own. If the government starts confiscating land because they can't be arsed to fix taxation, you'll never see developers invest here.
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  #1070  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 7:21 PM
adamuptownsj adamuptownsj is offline
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Originally Posted by TitleRequired View Post


"we have tried nothing, and it doesn't seem to work"
Six months ago, I would have said he had an extremely strong chance to pick up the seat for the Liberals. Easiest flip not named Moncton East. Now... not so much. "Buckle up for tent cities and more crime, coming to a secret location near you!" does not motivate the median voter to colour your circle.

The number one issue to voters here is homelessness/drugs/crime, and public opinion is opposite his. This is historically the lowest turnout riding in the province, and one prone to odd changes since Weir retired, so it does not require too many voters to make a big difference.

This response makes it easier for [whoever the PCs nominate] to keep the seat. I can't imagine Mariah Darling and the Greens would dream of disagreeing with his premise; same the NDP.

Genuinely perplexing move.
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  #1071  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2024, 9:06 PM
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That's psychotic and dangerous. They can't expropriate just because they want to. They need a valid civic reason to do so- road construction, public works like schools and museums, and so on. They try to avoid expropriation at all costs, preferring to negotiate a purchase above FMV. The only contentious one around here lately was one of the half-dozen homes on St James being demolished for the new school. All the other St James and Douglas owners seem to have accepted their lot and taken the deal offered.

Saying 'hey you know that land you own, that we considered for years to be worthless? We actually are going to take it from you and sell it to someone else to build on, or perhaps create a homeless camp," is not functional or civilized.

The goal is to get lot owners to develop or sell to developers, not for the city to steal stuff and dole it out. Fix assessments and rates on vacant land and make it more expensive to hold onto. I've been saying this for years. I own vacant land I am in no hurry to build on, because it costs next to nothing to own. If the government starts confiscating land because they can't be arsed to fix taxation, you'll never see developers invest here.

It would hardly be psychotic I’ve seen you mention the issue of vacant land many times here on the forum, yet when it’s pointed out how little Higgs and the PCs have done to change this, and that they would rather do nothing than do something about, you don’t seem to have much to say. Like it or not, they are the current government, and while other past Liberal and PC governments are to blame too, it’s ultimately the current PCs that should take the blame for continued inaction on tax reform which prevents cities from properly taxing vacant land that is an impediment to economic growth and development. Some major changes have to happen regarding vacant land that could be used more productively. The province is the only actor with the tower to bring about this change.

I think you’re completely misrepresenting what I’m suggesting here. I get that you’re a very conservative guy who probably loves Ronald Reagan, and probably think any sort of government involvement in housing development is socialist, but I think you’re letting your ardent support for the PCs get in the way of seeing the bigger picture here.

I also think you’re completely misrepresenting or misunderstanding what I’m suggesting here. I’m not suggesting the government expropriate valuable vacant land in the middle of our cities to allow the erection of tent cities to exist as infinitum. I’m suggesting quite the contrary actually: that the government pay land owners fair market rate for this land, and then allow temporary green zones which will absolutely turn into red zones once a residential development has been completed. The eventual goal is to have no green-zones whatsoever.

As for a valid civic reason, I think it speaks volumes that you don’t think housing is a valid civic reason for expropriation, but think a museum parking lots to save a memorial to the freaking Boer War is reason enough to bulldoze 4 houses on Douglas Avenue.

I don’t think it would send the wrong message to developers at all, if the government started expropriating vacant, underdeveloped land and allowed some encampments to exist very temporarily until the completion of construction, it could be an effective, very short term solution, and not disrupt existing residential communities. What really sends the wrong message to developers is that there’s all this vacant land that the NB government allows individuals and private interests to just sit on, while paying a pittance in taxes.

The government should devise a two pronged approach: expropriation of vacant property to be sold off to property developers, and substantially raise taxes on undeveloped vacant land to incentivize private entities to sell their land if they don’t intend to develop it in the short term. A third prong could be tax incentives for residential development that are proportionate to the scale of the development, i.e, the larger the development the more lucrative the tax incentive.

If you want to call intervention to incentivize or force the sale of vacant land psychotic that’s your prerogative, but I think it’s an incredibly hyperbolic way to react to what I’m suggesting. Tax breaks to developers who want to invest in larger scale projects could help bigger projects actually get built here. It’s not socialism to expropriate land or raise taxes on vacant land to get speculators to sell to developers, it’s rather quite democratic, pragmatic, and logical.

Logic seems to go out the window when it comes to you discussing the failings of the party you support, which has done next to nothing to actually bring about comprehensive tax reform. Hickey might sound bad in that 9 second sound byte, but Higgs and the PCs have had 6 years in power, and have done almost nothing to improve the tax system. The Liberals at least have a plan to bring about tax reform.

Tax reform should be the defining issue of this election, and it should be the one that voters and the media hold parties and their candidates accountable for and take them to task for giving unclear answers. You seem to be a lot more informed than the average poster here about the NB PC party… what is their plan for tax reform exactly, and why should we believe it?

If Hickey can clarify this comment, and if the Liberals can support tax reforms and more ambitious solutions to deal with the housing crisis, while also clamping down on the disruptive drug users and crime associated with these two related issues… I see no reason he can’t win the seat. The Liberals can absolutely make the case that their solutions will be more effective than the PCs, and Higgs is making it pretty damn easy for them. Will Uptown residents really believe the PCs have better solutions for the homelessness, addictions, and crime crises than the Liberals? Susan Holt and David Hickey literally just needs to ask Uptown voters, “do you feel safer and more secure now than you did 4 years ago?” and it will be incredibly simple to just blame the current situation on inaction from Higgs and the PC’s. It’ll be incredibly easy and effective, because it’s true.
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  #1072  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 11:00 AM
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If Hickey can clarify this comment, and if the Liberals can support tax reforms and more ambitious solutions to deal with the housing crisis, while also clamping down on the disruptive drug users and crime associated with these two related issues… I see no reason he can’t win the seat. The Liberals can absolutely make the case that their solutions will be more effective than the PCs, and Higgs is making it pretty damn easy for them. Will Uptown residents really believe the PCs have better solutions for the homelessness, addictions, and crime crises than the Liberals? Susan Holt and David Hickey literally just needs to ask Uptown voters, “do you feel safer and more secure now than you did 4 years ago?” and it will be incredibly simple to just blame the current situation on inaction from Higgs and the PC’s. It’ll be incredibly easy and effective, because it’s true.
The µSecond that anyone tries to deviate from the harm reduction religion, Austin and Higgs included, they get pummeled by the experts on CBC, available on speeddial.

And in practicality, the fent situation occurred in parallel with covid.

I was hopeful the compelled treatment was going to be introduced last spring, it would have provided an alternative to the harm reduction religion. Hickey and Holt are captured by the myth harm reduction works against fent.
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  #1073  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 11:29 AM
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Heard from a reliable source that internal polling has the Liberals thinking they are currently in majority territory (25-28 seats)
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  #1074  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 11:32 AM
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Heard from a reliable source that internal polling has the Liberals thinking they are currently in majority territory (25-28 seats)
Higgs (and Faytene) are certainly liabilities, so it is entirely possible.

But, given voter distribution and the efficiency of Conservative voting in the south, anything is still possible.

The Liberals will almost certainly win the popular vote (given their presumed massive plurality in the Acadian ridings).
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  #1075  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 11:47 AM
sailor734 sailor734 is offline
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Higgs (and Faytene) are certainly liabilities, so it is entirely possible.

But, given voter distribution and the efficiency of Conservative voting in the south, anything is still possible.

The Liberals will almost certainly win the popular vote (given their presumed massive plurality in the Acadian ridings).
338Canada.com is supposed to update the NB seat prediction this week (finally) so it should be interesting to see what he thinks.
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  #1076  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 11:48 AM
lirette lirette is offline
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The µSecond that anyone tries to deviate from the harm reduction religion, Austin and Higgs included, they get pummeled by the experts on CBC, available on speeddial.

And in practicality, the fent situation occurred in parallel with covid.

I was hopeful the compelled treatment was going to be introduced last spring, it would have provided an alternative to the harm reduction religion. Hickey and Holt are captured by the myth harm reduction works against fent.
I said this when the bill came up last time and no one had a good answer. Current waitlists for volunteer addiction treatment can be up to 12 months long. What professionals or facilities are going to be dealing with these hundreds of addicts when they can't currently deal with the waitlist they have? People who actually want addiction services have a much higher rate of success from treatment.

I haven't seen a single piece of compelling evidence or example of forced treatment working in any country, but setting that all aside and being pragmatic about it, the announcement of such a law would be a vibes based only policy. It sounds more appealing to the public in an election year to say things like we'll lock up all the scary homeless people than to talk about shortening the waitlist for the folks who want treatment because the ones who want treatment likely aren't as visible.
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  #1077  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 12:02 PM
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I said this when the bill came up last time and no one had a good answer. Current waitlists for volunteer addiction treatment can be up to 12 months long. What professionals or facilities are going to be dealing with these hundreds of addicts when they can't currently deal with the waitlist they have? People who actually want addiction services have a much higher rate of success from treatment.

I haven't seen a single piece of compelling evidence or example of forced treatment working in any country, but setting that all aside and being pragmatic about it, the announcement of such a law would be a vibes based only policy. It sounds more appealing to the public in an election year to say things like we'll lock up all the scary homeless people than to talk about shortening the waitlist for the folks who want treatment because the ones who want treatment likely aren't as visible.
Well, you start with one street at a time when you have limited resources. I’m sure the residents of Waterloo would love their neighbourhood back.

How this looks like; Mark Kleinman has a good anecdote on how to utilize justice and health resources in achieving this goal.
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  #1078  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 12:03 PM
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I said this when the bill came up last time and no one had a good answer. Current waitlists for volunteer addiction treatment can be up to 12 months long. What professionals or facilities are going to be dealing with these hundreds of addicts when they can't currently deal with the waitlist they have? People who actually want addiction services have a much higher rate of success from treatment.

I haven't seen a single piece of compelling evidence or example of forced treatment working in any country, but setting that all aside and being pragmatic about it, the announcement of such a law would be a vibes based only policy. It sounds more appealing to the public in an election year to say things like we'll lock up all the scary homeless people than to talk about shortening the waitlist for the folks who want treatment because the ones who want treatment likely aren't as visible.
Compelled treatment doesn't work and those on waiting lists for facilities are going to end up living on the streets if they're aren't already hoping to get moved up the ladder if that's how prioritization is going to go. I know addicts and I know that if you're a woman you can't even get treatment unless you travel to Saint John or Campbellton.
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  #1079  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 12:06 PM
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Compelled treatment doesn't work and those on waiting lists for facilities are going to end up living on the streets if they're aren't already hoping to get moved up the ladder if that's how prioritization is going to go. I know addicts and I know that if you're a woman you can't even get treatment unless you travel to Saint John or Campbellton.
What do you propose then? Fent is stronger than the alternatives.
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  #1080  
Old Posted Aug 27, 2024, 12:10 PM
sailor734 sailor734 is offline
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I said this when the bill came up last time and no one had a good answer. Current waitlists for volunteer addiction treatment can be up to 12 months long. What professionals or facilities are going to be dealing with these hundreds of addicts when they can't currently deal with the waitlist they have? People who actually want addiction services have a much higher rate of success from treatment.

I haven't seen a single piece of compelling evidence or example of forced treatment working in any country, but setting that all aside and being pragmatic about it, the announcement of such a law would be a vibes based only policy. It sounds more appealing to the public in an election year to say things like we'll lock up all the scary homeless people than to talk about shortening the waitlist for the folks who want treatment because the ones who want treatment likely aren't as visible.
I agree the first thing to do is expand programs so people who actually want help and who are motivated get timely access.

I think the whole "compelled treatment" thing is more about political posturing.
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