National Economy

[WarrenC12]

Markets are predicting multiple cuts in Canada and the US in the last half of 2024.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Build.It

With all due respect you live in Timmins, work from home and draw a fully pensioned government salary. You also seem to have benefitted from the pandemic since you didn't get to work from home before but now you do.

I'm guessing "everyone you know" is probably 5-10 guys in Timmins with a similar lifestyle and beliefs as yourself, and is not at all representative of the country.

There are people in this country who lost their jobs because they didn't want to get a vaccine that was brought to market 400% faster than any other vaccine in modern medical history.

There are people who in 2019 could afford a house but today no longer can, because of the effects cheap debt and money printing had on house prices.

There are also people in this country who in 2019 could afford a rental and food on minimum wage, but today have to live in a tent, despite being employed, again thanks to the inflation caused by the money printing.

The various levels of government's response to the pandemic fucked people working in the private sector, and it's those at the bottom who are still suffering the consequences.

Your first paragraph is correct but I didn't benefit financially. I had no choice but to work from home and continue to do so now because there isn't office space for me. I'm not complaining at all about that. My employer made the wise decision to keep me working from home because the office post-covid doesn't make sense for what I do. There may be changes in 8-10 months that will have me there 2-3 days a week but it will be because I will have some different tasks.

The rest of what you wrote isn't accurate. I don't really have any work friends that I hang out with. The main reason being that 80% of my colleagues are female and I'm married. Most of my friends are in the mining industry and some operate small businesses. They have varying political views but none support the freedom convoy nonsense.

You really need to see the experience in other countries and notice that Canada has handled economic issues much better than almost every other wealthy developed country. Our budget deficits are lower and so is our inflation. The main problem is the lack of available housing, not a problem unique to Canada, but that many larger Canadian cities have had huge demand which made prices skyrocket. Again, not unique to Canada but life here overall is really good.

[cranes]

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1...g-in-kitchener
Ontario Welcomes $30 Million Boost to Manufacturing in Kitchener
Plant expansion will create 50 new, good-paying jobs
August 22, 2024 Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade

KITCHENER — The Ontario government is welcoming a new investment of over $30 million by Golden Windows Ltd., an Ontario-based manufacturer of windows and doors, to boost the company’s manufacturing capacity at its Kitchener facility.

“Ontario is the manufacturing powerhouse of the nation, and new investments by domestic manufacturers demonstrate that our government is fostering the right conditions for growth and more good-paying jobs for our talented workforce,” said Vic Fedeli, Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade. “With a long history in Kitchener, we are proud to support the expansion of local companies like Golden Windows Ltd. and thank them for continuing to invest in their workers and community.”

With this investment, Golden Windows Ltd. will build a new 240,000 square-foot facility, allowing the company to introduce new product lines to supply Toronto’s high-rise construction market. The expansion will generate an additional 50 good-paying jobs in Kitchener, further boosting the local economy. In support of this investment, Ontario is providing Golden Windows Ltd. with over $4.5 million in funding through the Southwestern Ontario Development Fund (SWODF) stream of the Regional Development Program (RDP).

“Golden Windows would like to express our deep appreciation for the support we have received from the province of Ontario,” said Paul Kreutner, President of Golden Windows Ltd. “In this high interest rate environment, this access to capital will allow us to take our production processes to the next level of automation, efficiency, and quality.”...

https://www.therecord.com/news/water...2dc6b33b0.html
Aug. 22, 2024 | Golden Windows owner Paul Kreutner, centre, Vic Fedeli, minister of economic development, third from right, and other local dignitaries celebrate Thursday with a ceremonial sod turning at the announcement of a new factory on Bridge Street East in Kitchener. Mathew McCarthy Waterloo Region Record

[casper]

Well BC Hydro Site-C is nearly a wrap. They are starting to fill the reservoir. At $16B this has to be one of the largest mega projects in the country.

A good part of the power will go to power LNG Canada, another mega project. There are a number of other industrial projects proposed in the north that will consume significant electricity if they go ahead.

BC Hydro begins filling reservoir as Site C dam megaproject nears completion


Construction of Site C was launched in 2015 under then-premier Christy Clark's BC Liberals government and has seen cost estimates spike from up to $6.6 billion in 2007 to $16 billion in 2021.

BC Hydro says construction is now more than 85-per-cent complete, with the first power-generating unit on-site scheduled to begin operations in December.

When all six power generators are operational by fall 2025, BC Hydro says Site C will add 1,100 megawatts of electricity capacity while producing about 5,100 gigawatt hours annually — about an eight-per-cent increase to the province's overall power supply.

BC Hydro says Site C will provide enough clean electricity to reliably power nearly 500,000 homes or 1.7 million electric vehicles when fully operational

https://www.timescolonist.com/nation...letion-9424515

So the question is what is next? BC Hydro has an RFP out for smaller scale power projects that are owned by independent producers but on long term contract to BC Hydro. The economics of solar and wind are changing the dynamics of how we generate power. Will we see another project of the scale of site-c in Canada?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by casper

So the question is what is next? BC Hydro has an RFP out for smaller scale power projects that are owned by independent producers but on long term contract to BC Hydro. The economics of solar and wind are changing the dynamics of how we generate power. Will we see another project of the scale of site-c in Canada?

The ballooning cost and timeline of these megaprojects leads me to believe they aren't the future. Based on this old quote I don't think the power will be too cost effective either. This is based on the initial budget which is half the total now:

Site C would be among the most cost-effective resource options for BC Hydro ratepayers at a cost per megawatt hour of $83. After an upfront capital cost of $7.9 billion, Site C would be inexpensive to operate and would have a long life of more than a 100 years.

What would make the most sense for both provinces is for Alberta to continue to invest in huge solar on their cheaper and more appropriate land, and for both provinces to build better interconnections between us.

[ericmacm]

Hard to say what will happen regarding electricity projects in BC’s future. I doubt we will see any more giant dams being built in the near or far future given the issues with cost. The federal government is really pushing nuclear power at the moment, but I have doubts that BC will ever build any reactors given that many BC politicians are against them. I read an article from last year that suggested that BC might have to build reactors if they want to hit net-zero emissions.

My personal prediction is that we will see BC remain a net importer of electricity in the long-term. Site C will provide lots of new power availability but I believe it will all be eaten up in time. BC imports a lot from the US at the moment, but I can see Alberta eventually taking the lead with nuclear power in the future. Alberta is in the process of looking into nuclear power, and I could see them potentially even building comparable capacity to what we have in Ontario (given reports earlier this year of them considering both SMR and conventional nuclear power options).

[Truenorth00]

Solar, wind and batteries are destroying every economic model of power generation right now. Any free market will basically see most investment end up there. Both solar and wind now have more installed capacity than nuclear globally. And solar is now adding as much capacity as global nuclear has installed, each year. And that rate is growing. But all of this has basically happened in the last decade, so the average muggle has zero clue about this and still thinks in 2015 terms.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Solar, wind and batteries are destroying every economic model of power generation right now. Any free market will basically see most investment end up there. Both solar and wind now have more installed capacity than nuclear globally. And solar is now adding as much capacity as global nuclear has installed, each year. And that rate is growing. But all of this has basically happened in the last decade, so the average muggle has zero clue about this and still thinks in 2015 terms.

I posted this recent article in the Climate thread of the Skybar subforum





https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ix-years-early

[casper]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

My personal prediction is that we will see BC remain a net importer of electricity in the long-term. Site C will provide lots of new power availability but I believe it will all be eaten up in time. BC imports a lot from the US at the moment, but I can see Alberta eventually taking the lead with nuclear power in the future. Alberta is in the process of looking into nuclear power, and I could see them potentially even building comparable capacity to what we have in Ontario (given reports earlier this year of them considering both SMR and conventional nuclear power options).

In 2022 we were a net exporter. This year with low water levels it is reversed.

BC has more flexibility being able to adjust the amount of flow through the hydro facilities. BC Hydro can be opportunistic buying when prices are low to conserve water for when their is demand in neighboring jurisdictions.

On the nuclear side, BC Hydro has consistently been told (for 30 plus year) by its political masters, anything is not the table as long as it is not nuclear. I don't see that changing.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Solar, wind and batteries are destroying every economic model of power generation right now. Any free market will basically see most investment end up there. Both solar and wind now have more installed capacity than nuclear globally. And solar is now adding as much capacity as global nuclear has installed, each year. And that rate is growing. But all of this has basically happened in the last decade, so the average muggle has zero clue about this and still thinks in 2015 terms.

I have to agree with that generally. I think the business case around batteries is challenging, but given the direction the technologies is going that is likely to change fairly quickly.

The current RFP from BC Hydro is to add 3,000 GWh/year and looking to the private sector to build it.

[FactaNV]

This discussion just highlights how ridiculous it is that provinces have a harder time exporting energy to other provinces than they do to neighbouring states. Sask and MB should be completely tied in, just like Sask and AB and AB and BC. MB and BC are green electricity powerhouses, that should be encouraged and used to the full advantage of the whole of Western Canada. SaskPower should be gangbusters on building wind turbines for domestic use and export to SW MB. MB should be tying in it's bounty of hydro dams to power East Sask, etc etc etc. Cooperation is needed for the green transition and in the West it should be led by BC and MB.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The ballooning cost and timeline of these megaprojects leads me to believe they aren't the future. Based on this old quote I don't think the power will be too cost effective either. This is based on the initial budget which is half the total now:...

The same holds true for transit projects.....

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

The same holds true for transit projects.....

What's your point? Energy megaprojects will be replaced by smaller distributed (clean) generation.

What's the transit equivalent?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

This discussion just highlights how ridiculous it is that provinces have a harder time exporting energy to other provinces than they do to neighbouring states. Sask and MB should be completely tied in, just like Sask and AB and AB and BC. MB and BC are green electricity powerhouses, that should be encouraged and used to the full advantage of the whole of Western Canada. SaskPower should be gangbusters on building wind turbines for domestic use and export to SW MB. MB should be tying in it's bounty of hydro dams to power East Sask, etc etc etc. Cooperation is needed for the green transition and in the West it should be led by BC and MB.

SK and MB sure. SK and AB not so much. But also, is not that rosy out East. Ontario and Quebec have a relatively tiny amount of interconnection capacity given the size of their respective markets. But hey, this is Canada, where every province is a unique snowflake that needs to reinvent the wheel every time.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

What's your point? Energy megaprojects will be replaced by smaller distributed (clean) generation.

What's the transit equivalent?

Buying your own car I suppose.

[casper]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

This discussion just highlights how ridiculous it is that provinces have a harder time exporting energy to other provinces than they do to neighbouring states. Sask and MB should be completely tied in, just like Sask and AB and AB and BC. MB and BC are green electricity powerhouses, that should be encouraged and used to the full advantage of the whole of Western Canada. SaskPower should be gangbusters on building wind turbines for domestic use and export to SW MB. MB should be tying in it's bounty of hydro dams to power East Sask, etc etc etc. Cooperation is needed for the green transition and in the West it should be led by BC and MB.

North America is divided into a series of interconnects with all the grids within the interconnect phase locked. The cross over you basically need to convert to DC and then back again. There are interconnects between Alberta and Saskatchewan but they are quite expensive to build and operate. Truenorth posted a map of how North America is divided up.

BC has a unique relationship with Washington state on the Columbia that comes out of the Columbia River Treaty. BC has storage dams on the Canadian side that regulate flow into the Columbia and those are used to optimise power generation in Washington State. In return BC is allocated a percentage of power produced downstream in the US.

BC and Washington state will always be inter-connected. Somewhat surprising Alberta is integrated with the grid in BC instead of SK. You would think the mountains would have been the natural divide. However changing that at this point is likely impossible.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Loco101

You really need to see the experience in other countries and notice that Canada has handled economic issues much better than almost every other wealthy developed country. Our budget deficits are lower and so is our inflation. The main problem is the lack of available housing, not a problem unique to Canada, but that many larger Canadian cities have had huge demand which made prices skyrocket. Again, not unique to Canada but life here overall is really good.

No, we wouldn't be the laggard of the G7 for real GDP per capita if economic issues were handled well:



https://x.com/RichardDias_CFA/status...390004/photo/1

[casper]

One more mega project starts to come online

$18B LNG Canada Kitimat facility set to introduce natural gas

LNG Canada's $18-billion facility in Kitimat, B.C., is on track to next year begin moving its first shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia, and is readying to introduce natural gas to the facility any day now.

Once the facility receives the natural gas from the Coastal GasLink pipeline, and all safety checks are satisfied, a small flare pilot will be activated at the plant's vapour flare tower, followed by low-level flaring that will take place during the several weeks prior to more visible flaring, according to the company.

Crystal Smith, chief of the Haisla First Nation, earlier this year spoke of how the project has brought prosperity to her people. "It has been absolutely amazing to see the impact for not only Haisla but for the region,” Smith said in June, at the Indigenous Partnership Success Showcase.

The LNG Canada project is about 90 per cent complete. It represents a $40-billion investment, including the $18-billion LNG plant in Kitimat, the Coastal GasLink pipeline and upstream natural gas assets in northeastern B.C.

https://www.timescolonist.com/resour...al-gas-9452478

Sounds like there are a number of other LNG projects progressing. Good to see this one start to receive gas and begin exporting LNG next year.

[Build.It]

Anecdotally, construction is booming right now on the bids front. Lots of multires projects are being bid right now.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

No, we wouldn't be the laggard of the G7 for real GDP per capita if economic issues were handled well:



https://x.com/RichardDias_CFA/status...390004/photo/1

So are you suggesting that huge deficit spending is the answer?

Canada and Germany have had the lowest deficits by a good chunk as a percentage of GDP over the last number of years.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Loco101

So are you suggesting that huge deficit spending is the answer?

Canada and Germany have had the lowest deficits by a good chunk as a percentage of GDP over the last number of years.

I think that is the suggestion. The US and Italy chose not to do carbon tax instead they are running quite high deficits to create incentives for the clean energy transition.

After all Italy's 2023 deficit is at 7.4% of GDP. Highest in Europe. Big part of that is incentives for energy saving home improvements, they call it the Superbonus. The US is spending right left and center on clean energy incentives as well.

That is one of the alternatives to the Carbon tax. We could have done that instead of the carbon tax. I guess the Liberals were a bit to fiscally conservative with their thinking here.

Just for comparison Canada deficit spending per GDP is 1.1 federally and .6 provincially. So 1.7 % overall. The US is at 6.3% of GDP.

Originally Posted by Build.It

Anecdotally, construction is booming right now on the bids front. Lots of multires projects are being bid right now.

Not surprising given everything going on with structural changes to encourage housing construction. Interest rates are also heading down.

They are projecting a soft landing in the US, good chance we will see the same thing in Canada. All that with relatively low (compared to our peers) in deficit spending is a good thing.