BC Political Discussion: Election 2024 & 43rd Parliament

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Forestry-dying
Tree fruit industry: dying
Jade Mining: dead

What did the BC NDP do or not do to these industries.

I'm only familiar with the softwood lumber issues I see in the news centering around NAFTA and the stone fruit crop failure.

Like I said I'm in a bit of a bubble.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And the megaprojects that kept employment numbers looking good for the NDP are ended or ending:

MEGABUST: Northern B.C.’s megaproject boom coming to an end
Completion of four megaprojects over the next two years will end thousands of jobs and billions in economic activity.
Arthur Williams
Jan 23, 2023

The completion of four northern B.C. megaprojects, worth a combined $88.6 billion, will mean the end of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in economic activity in the region.

Construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline from Dawson Creek to Kitimat, the LNG Canada liquified natural gas export terminal in Kitimat, the BC Hydro Site C hydroelectric dam near Fort St. John and the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion project from Edmonton to Burnaby are all expected to be substantially complete over the next two years.

According to publicly-reported data, those four projects employed an average of 18,632 people in northern B.C. throughout 2022 – a labour force equal to almost seven per cent of the entire working-age population (15 and older) of the province’s three northern economic development regions: Cariboo, Northeast, and North Coast and Nechako.

“That's a lot of jobs,” Northern Development Initiative Trust (NDIT) CEO Joel McKay said. "These major projects have had an absolutely significant impact... not just on northern B.C., but across the province."....

https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/loca...egaproject-boom-coming-to-an-end-6414417

I wonder where most of those workers regularly live and where they will go. I know Alberta is always in need of workers like those. They've been hankering for workers the last few months.

[ecbin]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Forestry-dying
Tree fruit industry: dying
Jade Mining: dead

Are those industries that are simply ill-positioned for success in today's world? Eg. The Chinese have gotten into the tree fruit business and are driving prices down and there's not really much I'd want gov't to do about that.

Originally Posted by whatnext

And the megaprojects that kept employment numbers looking good for the NDP are ended or ending:

The completion of four northern B.C. megaprojects, worth a combined $88.6 billion, will mean the end of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in economic activity in the region.

According to publicly-reported data, those four projects employed an average of 18,632 people in northern B.C. throughout 2022 – a labour force equal to almost seven per cent of the entire working-age population (15 and older) of the province’s three northern economic development regions: Cariboo, Northeast, and North Coast and Nechako.

While it sucks to see these jobs go away they were always intended to be temporary jobs. I don't see how this is a "disastrous handling" - this is the reality of infrastructure projects. What are the NDP supposed to do? Come up with more mega projects in the North just to keep these folks employed?

[Migrant_Coconut]

Horgan's administration allowed so much old growth to be clear-cut it's not funny; if forestry's dying, it's in spite of the NDP, not because of it.

Don't know why BC's so obsessed with the primary sector anyway - we're selling away our best resources for cheap so that another country can refine and profit from them. Might be a better idea for the Interior to push for manufacturing or research jobs instead.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by ecbin

Are those industries that are simply ill-positioned for success in today's world? Eg. The Chinese have gotten into the tree fruit business and are driving prices down and there's not really much I'd want gov't to do about that.

I can't personally speak for the forestry or fruit industry, but the BCNDP explicitly decided to ban all jade mining in the Northwest because... well it was never really clear why other than the local First Nations were complaining.

My understanding is actually that the Chinese crave the high quality BC green stuff. Jade, I mean.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Don't know why BC's so obsessed with the primary sector anyway - we're selling away our best resources for cheap so that another country can refine and profit from them. Might be a better idea for the Interior to push for manufacturing or research jobs instead.

Comparative advantage. We live in a global economic system and are forced to take part in it. We're never going to be as good at manufacturing as the third world (at least not in our lifetimes), so our greatest economic strength is resource extraction along with tertiary/quaternary industries. There's nothing inherently wrong with that.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Comparative advantage. We live in a global economic system and are forced to take part in it. We're never going to be as good at manufacturing as the third world (at least not in our lifetimes), so our greatest economic strength is resource extraction along with tertiary/quaternary industries. There's nothing inherently wrong with that.

Sure. By the same token though, overspeccing on one or two specific sectors leaves BC vulnerable to fluctuations in said global market (e.g. Covid) and/or Dutch disease (e.g. Alberta/Maritimes).

Having a balanced economy is often better long-term; I'm not saying we become some kind of factory giant, I'm saying maybe we don't depend on being some other factory giant's supply guy.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Sure. By the same token though, overspeccing on one or two specific sectors leaves BC vulnerable to fluctuations in said global market (e.g. Covid) and/or Dutch disease (e.g. Alberta/Maritimes).

Having a balanced economy is often better long-term; I'm not saying we become some kind of factory giant, I'm saying maybe we don't depend on being some other factory giant's supply guy.

BC's primary industries are extremely diversified so I'm at a loss as to why you'd say that. Fishing, forestry, natural gas, oil, coal, gold, copper, zinc, aluminum (we're a world leader in aluminum smelting actually), jade (oops not anymore!), and agriculture to some extent but I don't think we export much. I feel like it's "cool" to look down on BC's primary industries but I think it's something to be proud of.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Sure. By the same token though, overspeccing on one or two specific sectors leaves BC vulnerable to fluctuations in said global market (e.g. Covid) and/or Dutch disease (e.g. Alberta/Maritimes).

Having a balanced economy is often better long-term; I'm not saying we become some kind of factory giant, I'm saying maybe we don't depend on being some other factory giant's supply guy.

Forestry, fruit cultivation and jade mining are hardly overspeccing in one industry! It's pretty diverse group.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Forestry-dying
Tree fruit industry: dying
Jade Mining: dead

Forestry is in decline partly because trees are dying, or burning up. I don't think anyone blames the provincial government for climate change? And the economics of the lumber industry have changed - the Province allowed more than double the amount that was cut in 2023, so the decline is more to do with the state of the industry, rather than any fault of the provincial government.

Similarly the collapse of the tree fruits cooperative is due to the poor yield and damage caused by extreme weather (see climate change, above). In this case the province are taking action. "Tuesday, the province announced a variety of programs to assist farmers across the province whose businesses have been ravaged by natural disasters and other difficult circumstances for several consecutive years.

Premier David Eby said he's asked the federal government for subsidy frameworks taking place in Washington state, where the federal and state governments are heavily subsidizing their farmers.

"Our farmers are expected to compete on what's been called a level playing field … when it's clearly not a level playing field," he said. "One group of farmers is being subsidized, and one isn't. If there's a level playing field, our farmers can compete with the best in the world."

The provincial AgriStability fund will be improved, increasing compensation from 80 to 90 per cent, as well as doubling the cap for the 2024 growing season, said Eby." [CBC]

And jade mining is not dead in BC. It's only a few very remote mines in the Stikine that will have to close over the next five years. They're mostly only accessible by helicopter, and the decision to close them was because of the environmental damage that they have caused. The local first nations are very concerned about the impact some of the mine operations have had. Nathan Cullen's seat is probably not threatened by the decision.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

BC's primary industries are extremely diversified so I'm at a loss as to why you'd say that. Fishing, forestry, natural gas, oil, coal, gold, copper, zinc, aluminum (we're a world leader in aluminum smelting actually), jade (oops not anymore!), and agriculture to some extent but I don't think we export much. I feel like it's "cool" to look down on BC's primary industries but I think it's something to be proud of.

That also describes Russia (minus the agriculture). At last check, they're currently being kept alive by massive public spending after most of the world cut ties with them, and they'll likely suffer long-term from inflation and a shortage of tech imports even if the war ends tomorrow.

Again, I'm not calling it a source of pride or shame, but it wouldn't hurt to convert some of those metals and timber into processed goods of our own. Primary sectors are always going to be more vulnerable to massive booms and busts than secondary/tertiary/quarternary ones, and we're seeing some of those now; if CC is correct, hotter temperatures will only exacerbate them. The lockdown was another one - we struggled to get raw exports out and finished goods in.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Changing City

They're mostly only accessible by helicopter, and the decision to close them was because of the environmental damage that they have caused. The local first nations are very concerned about the impact some of the mine operations have had. Nathan Cullen's seat is probably not threatened by the decision.

Funny how they've never exactly made clear what the alleged environmental damage is. The local first nations were very concerned though!

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

That also describes Russia (minus the agriculture).

I certainly hope Canada is not going to become an international pariah state anytime soon.

Again, I'm not calling it a source of pride or shame, but it wouldn't hurt to convert some of those metals and timber into processed goods of our own. Primary sectors are always going to be more vulnerable to massive booms and busts than secondary/tertiary/quarternary ones, and we're seeing some of those now; if CC is correct, hotter temperatures will only exacerbate them. The lockdown was another one - we struggled to get raw exports out and finished goods in.

Canada already has a productivity issue. I don't know why we'd invest in lower productivity manufacturing industries when we could invest in higher productivity primary or tertiary/quaternary industries.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

I certainly hope Canada is not going to become an international pariah state anytime soon.

Canada already has a productivity issue. I don't know why we'd invest in lower productivity manufacturing industries when we could invest in higher productivity primary or tertiary/quaternary industries.

If they'd spent the last twenty years investing the gas money in anything other than military R&D and private yachts, they might've been fine.

We're already spending bigly on manufacturing, if all the headlines about federal money and EV/battery plants are to be believed. If the primary sectors are having a bad time for whatever reason, it seems like a better use of money to shift our priorities somewhere else (quaternary seems like a good bet too) rather than prop them up; IMO the forests could use a breather anyway.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

We already are, if all the headlines about EV and EV battery plants are to be believed. If the primary sectors are having a bad time for whatever reason, it seems like a better use of money to shift our priorities somewhere else (quaternary seems like a good bet too) rather than prop them up; IMO the forests could use a breather.

Ironically, lithium is one of the few things we don't mine ourselves.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Ironically, lithium is one of the few things we don't mine ourselves.

There's a few mines in MB and ON, and apparently other companies are interested. Maybe they're not lobbying Ottawa as hard as the car manufacturers are?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Funny how they've never exactly made clear what the alleged environmental damage is. The local first nations were very concerned though!

The reason for the government's decision isn't a mystery. In 2021 the Tahltan First Nation president said “abandoned equipment and garbage has been piling up from these operations for decades.” Even some of the mining operators acknowledge the problems. For example, Tony Ritter, owner of Cassiar Jade Contracting was quoted acknowledging that there were some placer jade mining companies in B.C. that “made quite a mess” of the environment.

He blamed the government for not enforcing the regulations, but the isolated locations and relative inaccessibility of the sites make enforcement difficult, and expensive. Once the damage has been created, it's very difficult to restore the sites, and small placer mining operators don't have any resources to go after to pay for restoration, even if that was possible, and court proceedings against them were successful. Given how small the industry is and that there are other sources of jade in BC, the government chose to limit further damage.

It's not like the First Nation or the government are anti mining in the area. The much bigger Red Chris gold and copper mine is operating within Tahltan territory under a consent-based decision-making agreement between the provincial government and the Tahltan Central Government.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

There's a few mines in MB and ON, and apparently other companies are interested. Maybe they're not lobbying Ottawa as hard as the car manufacturers are?

I meant BC, after all why isn't MB manufacturing using their lithium and instead shipping it off to us?

Originally Posted by Changing City

The reason for the government's decision isn't a mystery. In 2021 the Tahltan First Nation president said “abandoned equipment and garbage has been piling up from these operations for decades.” Even some of the mining operators acknowledge the problems. For example, Tony Ritter, owner of Cassiar Jade Contracting was quoted acknowledging that there were some placer jade mining companies in B.C. that “made quite a mess” of the environment.

He blamed the government for not enforcing the regulations, but the isolated locations and relative inaccessibility of the sites make enforcement difficult, and expensive. Once the damage has been created, it's very difficult to restore the sites, and small placer mining operators don't have any resources to go after to pay for restoration, even if that was possible, and court proceedings against them were successful. Given how small the industry is and that there are other sources of jade in BC, the government chose to limit further damage.

It's not like the First Nation or the government are anti mining in the area. The much bigger Red Chris gold and copper mine is operating within Tahltan territory under a consent-based decision-making agreement between the provincial government and the Tahltan Central Government.

So yet again no details on what damage is happening. Abandoned equipment is standard for mining activities, there is no "alpine damage" resulting from abandoned pickaxes, trailers, and excavators. Care to explain to me what the damage of an abandoned jade mine is? Here's a hint, jade mines don't require ore extraction like a copper mine does, you're just ripping rocks out of the earth and cracking them open. Otherwise you shouldn't try to argue when it's not something you understand.

The Tahltan make it very clear what their actual reasons are for opposing jade mining.

https://www.cftktv.com/tahltan-nation-co...o-jade-mining-on-its-territory-1.5441168

Tahltan Nation continues opposition to jade mining on its territory

PRINCE RUPERT, B.C. -- The Tahltan Central Government (TCG) is repeating its calls for a halt to jade mining on its territory.

President Chad Norman Day says jade mining operations create a lot of environmental damage, and they often leave behind a large mess that can include abandoned equipment, damaged landscapes and split-open jade boulders.

He also described both the environmental mitigation measures put in place by the province -- and the enforcement of those measures -- as being very weak.

The Tahltan have benefits-sharing agreements with many large scare mines on their territory, but Day says they don't see any benefits or jobs from jade mines, which happen on a smaller scale.

"If a jade miner comes in, spends whatever they spend, digs up two or three stones that could be worth a million dollars more or each, and then sells them, what do the Tahltan receive from that? Nothing. And then what are we left with? Most of the time, we're left with a big mess on the site where they've had all of these pieces of equipment, ripping up the land and going through the water."

"Damaged landscapes" and "split-open jade boulders" are not "environmental damage."

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by chowhou

I meant BC, after all why isn't MB manufacturing using their lithium and instead shipping it off to us?

Once the plants actually open, they should. I can't imagine that domestic lithium costs so much that it's cheaper to ship it in from Australia or Chile.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by chowhou

...So yet again no details on what damage is happening. Abandoned equipment is standard for mining activities, there is no "alpine damage" resulting from abandoned pickaxes, trailers, and excavators. Care to explain to me what the damage of an abandoned jade mine is? Here's a hint, jade mines don't require ore extraction like a copper mine does, you're just ripping rocks out of the earth and cracking them open. Otherwise you shouldn't try to argue when it's not something you understand.

The Tahltan make it very clear what their actual reasons are for opposing jade mining.

https://www.cftktv.com/tahltan-nation-co...o-jade-mining-on-its-territory-1.5441168


"Damaged landscapes" and "split-open jade boulders" are not "environmental damage."

Indeed. There's a lot of lame excuses thrown about. The cost of enforcement? Give me a break, there not going up there every week.

[whatnext]

I suspect this kind of stunt is why donors continue to back BC United. What Rustad was thinking is the question. Appearing on Jordan Peterson's podcast doesn't really expose him to that many British Columbians and those who follow Peterson were probably going to vote for the BCC anyway. Meanwhile it exposes him to contentious topics more likely to turn off undecided voters:

Rob Shaw: Will Rustad's appearance on Jordan Peterson's podcast boost or backfire?
Leader of the BC Conservatives should expect questions about contentious gender identity and sexuality topics.
Rob Shaw
about 2 hours ago

As the BC Conservatives wrestle with yet more candidate problems, leader John Rustad is himself stirring the pot with an appearance on the podcast of controversial psychologist and author Jordan Peterson.

In terms of sheer eyeballs, it’s probably a get for Rustad, who will be able to introduce himself to Peterson’s millions of listeners and social media followers.

But it’s also a risky move. Rustad is going to find himself fielding questions about contentious gender identity and sexuality topics that, provincially, he’s mostly trying to avoid 64 days before an election. His answers will undoubtedly fuel attacks from the other parties that he’s an extremist. Most of Peterson’s followers aren’t British Columbians, so the upside on attracting actual new voters will be limited. The ones who do listen were probably already voting Conservative anyway....

https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-pol...ersons-podcast-boost-or-backfire-9360054

[SpongeG]

they were talking about this and the latest info on the radio today, one of the things they found interesting is just how much voters have changed, 40+ voters are more likely to vote NDP where as 40 and below aka millennials and gen z are more likely to be voting conservative, they see it as a big shift in voting demographics, as it was always the seniors and older people who would support conservatives and younger voters would go NDP.