Quote:
Originally Posted by darkharbour
I appreciate your enthusiasm EnvisionSaintJohn however I believe you are fantasizing about the market appeal of condos in an isolated part of the West Side. New construction of towers - even with ocean views - would have to charge well over $400-500k per unit to get any return (the average new unit is SJ is now over $340k), and for what? To live in an residential area with virtually no walkable services or amenities besides a convenience store or two? People don't invest in condo lifestyles en masse without the density to support them.
I love Bayshore Beach as much as anyone but one beach isn't going to sell hundreds of very high-end units in a city like Saint John, if it did there would be developers ready to undertake similar projects all over the city. It is fair to say that many developers in Saint John lack imagination or comfort levels perhaps with trying un-tested developments as they are a very conservative bunch generally. I do believe this holds us back as they will more likely double-down on established formulas such as subdivisions and 4-6 storey apartment builds in established neighbourhoods, rather than try an Uptown condo building for example.
I also believe that your characterization of, "Moncton is embarrassing Saint John in terms of waterfront development," is missing the mark. Yes Moncton has a few more apartment buildings under construction downtown, however a vibrant urban waterfront is basically non-existent there while SJ has one that continues to grow both commercially and in actual marine activity and has been established for decades now. Let's be proud of what we have in Saint John, not disparaging of our potential to the point of bolstering others, there is nothing to be gained through attempts to shame us into progress.
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I appreciate your skepticism and own use of hyperbole, but I don't think it's fantasy to suggest ocean views are highly marketable in real estate. Where I totally agree with you is the notion that many Saint John developers lack imagination and are very conservative with "un-tested" developments. That's a big part of the problem, that Saint John hasn't attracted many developers from outside the city and region, and our local developers just clearly aren't doing a good job keeping up with country wide trends to build taller residential developments, a trend you only need to go as far as Moncton to see first hand. I disagree; however, that the property is in an "isolated part of the West Side". Rather, I'd say it's located in the historical heart of Lancaster, surrounded by residential homes... it's not an isolated property. Here's a comparison of where Fort Howe, Brentwood Tower, and the Belyea are located... the Belyea property isn't really more isolated that Brentwood Tower is. Fort Howe is a pretty walkable location, but the place is a total dump.
It's pretty apparent what the biggest difference is between these three locations, (other than the Belyea property being a much larger piece of land) the big difference is the presence of the Bay of Fundy.
Even a few ten storey buildings would have something like 85% or more units with ocean views. So, I disagree with the notion that people wouldn't buy into the idea of ocean view condos there, simply because they aren't "walking distance" from services and amenities. There's all kinds of potential for better amenities, services, restaurants, and active transportation links between the West Side Peninsula and the rest of the city... perhaps even the return of the cross harbour ferry one day. As is, it's still a desirable neighbourhood with a unique oceanic influence that no other area of the city compares with, not even Uptown. The West Side has much nicer sea side locations than Uptown, or any other residential area in Saint John for that matter. Yet, there remains a dearth of apartments and condos with ocean views on the West Side.
No offence, but you kind of sound like Brent Harris with your choice of words "very high-end units" in framing this discussion for the potential for residential development at the Belyea property. Whether it's condos or apartments, it doesn't need to be an ultra luxury type of development to be economically viable in the long run... and it's not like condos can't be rented out either.
If the average new build in Saint John is around $350k, I don't think it's a stretch for brand new 2 or 3 bedroom ocean view condo to sell for around that or more... and if there's not enough buyers yet, there would definitely be enough people wanting to rent them.
Even if a developer were to put up a few completely unimaginative six storey apartment buildings, there's more than enough room at this property for 100 or more units, the large majority of which would have ocean views, and there could still be some green space.
I don't really think you do love Bayshore Beach as much as anyone if you don't see the value there compared to other areas for residential development? Investing more in the area will make it a more walkable, livable area to reside. There's clear a very heavy Uptown/East Saint John/River valley bias when it comes to valuation and development focus in The Saint John Region. The West Side looks more attractive to investors from outside of Saint John, because of its seaside location, but also because developers from outside the Saint John Region aren't steeped in regional stereotypes like local developers are.
Canada is a big country, with one of the hottest property markets on earth... I really don't think developers would be hard pressed selling few hundred ocean view condo units at this location. If you look at a population density map, the area is actually quite dense in terms of the entire Saint John region. I don't disagree that the West Side Peninsula lacks a lot of restaurants, services, stores compared to other areas, but it's not nearly as isolated and lacking density as you seem to suggest it is, but where it isn't lacking at all, is potential for ocean view residential development.
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Population Density Map)
As for me missing the mark regarding Saint John vs Moncton in terms of residential development... I still think I'm bang on, but perhaps "water view development" is what I should have said instead, as you're right, Saint John's waterfront is quite a bit better than Moncton's. However, in terms of "water view development" Moncton is putting up residential towers with water views left and right compared to Saint John. Moncton's water view (without building 40+ storeys or closer to Shediac) is a muddy river... while Saint John's water views are either going to be the Bay of Fundy, or the Saint John/Kennebecasis River Valley, both of which are, quite objectively, more scenic and appealing than the views of the Petitcodiac River that runs through Moncton. Even the resident Moncton "fanboys" on this sub-forum will admit that.
There's absolutely something be be gained by shaming us into a spirit of competition with Moncton regarding mid rise and high rise residential development... that something to gain being a more modern skyline with cooler places to live with better views.
Brent Harris likes to complain online that Saint John doesn't have any millionaires wanting to build transitional housing projects like 12 neighbours, and that's why we should support his bad idea for the Belyea Arena... here on skyscraperpage.com I like to point out that that Saint John doesn't have many millionaires or billionaires wanting to build high rise residential developments here in Saint John, but I think that will change. I still think it's going to happen eventually, as it's very much the national trend to build up, and there remains a lot of untapped potential in Saint John (especially because of the coastal views).
I just find it especially perplexing that Moncton is so far ahead of Saint John in terms of high rise developments, considering that Saint John has way more potential for ocean views, and also has much nicer river views than Moncton. Re-igniting a spirit of competition between Saint John and Moncton would be a good thing. I'm not sure why so many people on here frame this type of competition as a bad thing or a negative thing. It's possible to be proud of what we have in Saint John, while also being disappointed in how much we are falling behind Moncton in terms of high rise residential developments, especially here on a forum called
https://skyscraperpage.com/ 
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