Federal Government & Politics II

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm not sure one can judge based on first 6 months data. The question is whether they stick to the 360k cap. We know that applications have fallen substantially and there's actually projections that enrollment might actually below targets.

Anecdotally, Indian and Chinese students are increasingly looking at alternatives to Canada.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

He's scared still of being pegged as racist. The public opinion on this has changed fast. Maybe the anonymous nature of this board but I also here it in real life people who were very pro immigration are calling for drastic cuts. It's not yet an election issue because it's not being discussed by the media.

The students issue and increasing unemployment among recent immigrants have both had media attention.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Anecdotally, Indian and Chinese students are increasingly looking at alternatives to Canada.

The most qualified ones started giving up on Canada a while ago. We mostly only get those who really want a Western visa now. Not anybody actually passionate about their field.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The Tech bros are already coming out against her after claiming they were only for Trump because Biden was senile and they'd happily vote for any younger candidate. I wonder if we will see the same with a lot of voters who were only pretending to be for Trump because Biden is old when really they want his anti immigration and other policies but are embarrassed to admit it.

Yeah interesting to see a lot of people who thought Biden was failing and a cakewalk for Trump are suddenly. Panicking. Similarly those calling Biden too old are now the ones supporting somebody would be the oldest ever elected.

I'm not sure anything changes too many minds, but it's all about turnout.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yeah interesting to see a lot of people who thought Biden was failing and a cakewalk for Trump are suddenly. Panicking. Similarly those calling Biden too old are now the ones supporting somebody would be the oldest ever elected.

I'm not sure anything changes too many minds, but it's all about turnout.

I think there's a bit of value in making their hypocrisy plain for all to see. Of course, anybody down the rabbit hole ain't coming back. By politics isn't about them. It's about the persuadable.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

The students issue and increasing unemployment among recent immigrants have both had media attention.

Yes but very much on the fringes. Most people have no idea most of these students are fake students here to work. They imagine they are enrolled in Masters of Engineering programs ready to fulfill a need Canada has and are paying $30k a year in much needed tuition dollars. These are of course the students we need to get back to.

The conversation is still very much immigrants aren't the reason for our housing crisis which I think was mostly true until fairly recently even if many were harping on about it well before that.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but very much on the fringes. Most people have no idea most of these students are fake students here to work. They imagine they are enrolled in Masters of Engineering programs ready to fulfill a need Canada has and are paying $30k a year in much needed tuition dollars. These are of course the students we need to get back to.

The conversation is still very much immigrants aren't the reason for our housing crisis which I think was mostly true until fairly recently even if many were harping on about it well before that.

This might be the narrative at meetings of the Liberal Party. I don’t think it is the narrative anywhere else. The fake students have received significant media coverage for at least 2 years.

[Truenorth00]

^^ I think you're mistaking your social circle for "most people".

[acottawa]

https://www.environicsinstitute.org/...ation-refugees

Canadians are now significantly more likely than a year ago to say there is too much immigration to the country, dramatically reversing a trend dating back decades. For the first time, a growing number of Canadians are questioning how many immigrants are arriving, rather than who they are and where they are coming from.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

https://www.environicsinstitute.org/...ation-refugees

Canadians are now significantly more likely than a year ago to say there is too much immigration to the country, dramatically reversing a trend dating back decades. For the first time, a growing number of Canadians are questioning how many immigrants are arriving, rather than who they are and where they are coming from.

This is good news though not yet decisive. Meanwhile UK public opinion has been strongly anti-immigration and bot parties have kept the taps running. So we will see.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is good news though not yet decisive. Meanwhile UK public opinion has been strongly anti-immigration and bot parties have kept the taps running. So we will see.

How is it "both parties" in the UK when Labour has not been in since 2010?

The British Tories tried to play a cute game where they ran on dog whistles while pushing strictly pro-business and pro-rich policies. It backfired on them once their base noticed and split with Reform UK. The same would happen here with PPC if the CPC doesn't actually reduce intake.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but very much on the fringes. Most people have no idea most of these students are fake students here to work. They imagine they are enrolled in Masters of Engineering programs ready to fulfill a need Canada has and are paying $30k a year in much needed tuition dollars. These are of course the students we need to get back to.

The conversation is still very much immigrants aren't the reason for our housing crisis which I think was mostly true until fairly recently even if many were harping on about it well before that.

Even six months ago questioning basically any of these aspects of immigration was still very much a marginal, fringe view in Canada.

I've rarely seen views on an issue change so quickly - at least not in Canada as a whole.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

How is it "both parties" in the UK when Labour has not been in since 2010?

The British Tories tried to play a cute game where they ran on dog whistles while pushing strictly pro-business and pro-rich policies. It backfired on them once their base noticed and split with Reform UK. The same would happen here with PPC if the CPC doesn't actually reduce intake.

Good point. Both parties in the sense it continued under the Tories after Brexit and 2017 and 2019 elections were won on getting immigration under control as part of getting brexit done.

I don't know if the same would happen here. Probably not in exactly the same way but if we don't get some genuine populism I think you are right there will be a short fuse. If we get corporate tax cuts OAS and CCB cuts and see no progress on housing there will absolutely be a backlash of some sort for sure. Electorates are very impatient lately as well so they might not get two tersm of the above before getting turfed out. Especially if the Liberals get someone like Carney who can claim distance from both approaches. The recent history on changing government has assumed it was for at least two terms but in both cases a stronger opposition very much had a window to limit them to one term but blew it. (Dion in 2008 and Sheer in 2019 were both uniquely weak PM candidates)

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even six months ago questioning basically any of these aspects of immigration was still very much a marginal, fringe view in Canada.

I've rarely seen views on an issue change so quickly - at least not in Canada as a whole.

It may be the single stupidest public policy decision in Canadian history.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

No wonder Trudeau's Liberals are misleading Canadians saying that they're going to cap International Student numbers, and yet in reality record student visas were issued YTD 2024:

Originally Posted by Acajack

People. The numbers are NOT going to be coming down. It's also almost certain they won't be coming down significantly under a CPC government. The course has been definitely set and is unlikely to be altered. There is too much at stake.

So, we should expect the yearly rate of Canadian impoverishment (thanks JT!) to actually accelerate?

On a related note, I resumed buying urban Canadian real estate. I have a couple transactions supposed to happen this summer (as soon as my notary has an opening).

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Anecdotally, Indian and Chinese students are increasingly looking at alternatives to Canada.

No problem, we can just set our sights on even more unqualified candidates. There are billions of potential FNSs out there who aren't in Canada yet, I can't believe that by scraping the very bottom of the barrel if that's what it takes, we can't continue to find 1.5-2M suckers per year for the foreseeable future.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

No problem, we can just set our sights on even more unqualified candidates. There are billions of potential FNSs out there who aren't in Canada yet, I can't believe that by scraping the very bottom of the barrel if that's what it takes, we can't continue to find 1.5-2M suckers per year for the foreseeable future.

I know you are being sarcastic but there is certainly a near endless supply of low skilled immigrants. If there was a need there we could advertise in the US and take a million who already have north american work experience in a second. Win brownie points with Trump as well. But obviously the shortage if there ever was one is long past unless you are a fast food restaurant and tired of having employees who have any other options.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even six months ago questioning basically any of these aspects of immigration was still very much a marginal, fringe view in Canada.

I've rarely seen views on an issue change so quickly - at least not in Canada as a whole.

Eh, probably longer than that. I think I stared having cab drivers of Indian origin ranting to me about the high number of immigrants in late 2022. You don’t talk to some random stranger about a topic like that unless it has a certain degree of social acceptance.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

It may be the single stupidest public policy decision in Canadian history.

Because the backlash will only grow and the consensus is gone or you think the immigration surge is so detrimental on their own?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

Eh, probably longer than that. I think I stared having cab drivers of Indian origin ranting to me about the high number of immigrants in late 2022. You don’t talk to some random stranger about a topic like that unless it has a certain degree of social acceptance.

The actual communities themselves have been complaining about the student surge for years. But those complaints really started skyrocketing in 2022.