National Economy

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Nite effectively summarized everything wrong with the Canadian economy, where we're putting all bets on residential real estate to save the national economy in 2025.

Been that way for at least 20 years - why change now?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Nite

perhaps, but it could also reverse liberal fortune with strong economic growth, low inflation, low interest rates, cheaper housing, full implementation of the of $10 daycare plan, and millions more will be covered by the national dental plan all by the time of the next election.
Things can change fast in politics. Liberal support is probably at the nader right now and can only go up as the macroeconomic indicators improve.

LOL, hey Tattoo, where’s Mr. Roarke?

[Coldrsx]

[Greetingsfromcanada]

Originally Posted by Nite

perhaps, but it could also reverse liberal fortune with strong economic growth, low inflation, low interest rates, cheaper housing, full implementation of the of $10 daycare plan, and millions more will be covered by the national dental plan all by the time of the next election.
Things can change fast in politics. Liberal support is probably at the nader right now and can only go up as the macroeconomic indicators improve.

Housing is a hell of a thing to list here

[niwell]

That's a lot of office space absorption in Vancouver! I personally dislike being in-office unless I have to but still prefer to have the option when it makes sense, which I would hope companies can come to terms with. Space can probably be used a lot more effectively with this in mind than the pre-COVID move towards cramming more and more onto any given floorplate.

Toronto's vacancy is better than I expected given the amount of space that's coming online too. The AAA towers are still pretty desirable from what I can tell, and even the older TD Square has a pretty high occupancy rate. It's the older marginal office towers and suburban complexes which seem to be suffering.

[lio45]

Housing isn’t going to get cheaper. By the time of the federal election in 2025, housing will be less cheap than now, and we’ll have more of a housing crisis compared to the situation now.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Switzerland is one of the most exceptional countries in the world. Maybe the most.

We can learn and apply a few things that the Swiss do here and there, but you can't emulate the Swiss. Their whole society is a complex and completely foreign mix, stretching back 700 years. If I were a crazed conspiracy theorist, I'd spread a rumour that they're alien replicons living amongst us.

Surprised that no one has mentioned the impact of what one might call "blood money" on Switzerland. They've always looked the other way when money came from dictators and criminals, and also kept a lot of wealth that belonged to Jews killed by the Nazis.

"Neutrality" also wasn't always as courageous a position to take as one is often led to believe.

BTW I do love Switzerland but I don't have any illusions about them.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

Housing isn’t going to get cheaper. By the time of the federal election in 2025, housing will be less cheap than now, and we’ll have more of a housing crisis compared to the situation now.

This is an extreme outlier position. Interest rates will almost certainly be lower and real prices lower as well. Thus affordbility will see huge gains from current situation even if worse than almost any previous point as we will still probably have 4%+ 5 year fixed and prices in the basic range as they've been now. Or we might see sub 3% mortgages and 20%+ drop in housing prices but that probably means lots of people have lost their job in a substantial recession so nobody will be talking about housing affordibilty anymore. But if you are a teacher or a cop or whatever and recession free it will be a great time to buy.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Surprised that no one has mentioned the impact of what one might call "blood money" on Switzerland. They've always looked the other way when money came from dictators and criminals, and also kept a lot of wealth that belonged to Jews killed by the Nazis.

"Neutrality" also wasn't always as courageous a position to take as one is often led to believe.

BTW I do love Switzerland but I don't have any illusions about them.

Switzerland is weird. I might be reading this wrong, but it's almost as if an East Asian society with its collectivist, hermit mindset was grafted onto the West. But, unlike Korea or Japan, Switzerland is not a monolingual ethnostate, nor has it historically been a country with just one religious denomination.

I think the fact that they take blood money, maintain neutrality and don't care what other people think about them comes from a similar frame of mind to the Asian mentality. It's the dark side of the same kind of culture that would provide enough bunker beds to house their entire citizenry in the event of an apocalypse, conscript their population and give each household access to a semi-automatic rifle, or maintain leadership among a rotating council of seven without ever worrying about a strongman taking advantage.

All of this is to say that Switzerland is a very strange place that is impossible to emulate. Like I said, we can learn certain things from them in isolation, but we can't "be more like Switzerland" by lowering our corporate taxes or having a conscripted army any more than you or I could "be more like LeBron" by shooting hoops outside our garage for 10,000 hours.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is an extreme outlier position.

Maybe, but I’m still making a multi-million dollar bet on me being right. (I’m refusing crazy offers these days, and they’re only getting crazier.)

Time will tell which one of us was right

[Build.It]

Outdoor Equipment - Canada

"In 2024, the revenue in the Outdoor Equipment market in Canada reached a significant amount of US$1.0bn.
Looking ahead, the market is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 6.17%, based on the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2024-2028.
When compared globally, in China emerges as the top revenue generator in the Outdoor Equipment market, with a staggering US$4,464.0m in 2024.
This highlights the substantial scale of the market in China.
Considering the population figures, the per person revenue in Canada amounted to US$24.58 in 2024.
This metric provides insight into the individual spending power within the country's population.
Canada's growing outdoor equipment market is driven by the country's vast wilderness and the population's love for outdoor activities."
https://www.statista.com/outlook/cmo...uipment/canada

I think there might be another reason for the increased sales that this article is overlooking.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lio45

Maybe, but I’m still making a multi-million dollar bet on me being right. (I’m refusing crazy offers these days, and they’re only getting crazier.)

Time will tell which one of us was right

You are getting crazy offers for real estate for sale right now and are banking on it going much higher?

If prices rise though and rates fall affordibilty can still improve.

Time won't tell us what the odds are now. The downside risk is still higher objectively.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You are getting crazy offers for real estate for sale right now and are banking on it going much higher?

If prices rise though and rates fall affordibilty can still improve.

Time won't tell us what the odds are now. The downside risk is still higher objectively.

I'm guessing that Lio's portfolio is not heavily mortgaged (perhaps not mortgaged at all) so at this point it's not about him losing money, but about making more or less money on it. He's still in the black regardless.

And of course managing and calculating that risk is basically what the property investment game is all about.

Nothing new under the sun.

[lio45]

Just a little sample from two weeks ago:

https://www.latribune.ca/affaires/af...D2XYMLM3OHUPU/

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Just a little sample from two weeks ago:

https://www.latribune.ca/affaires/af...D2XYMLM3OHUPU/

A 1 million dollar profit in 2 years for the seller. Nice.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A 1 million dollar profit in 2 years for the seller. Nice.

The lady who sold it to the first flipper (who I know, I also know the second flipper very well) was really stupid, she was in a hurry to sell, she knew I've been interested (on second thought, I edited out why because I'm not that hell-bent on doxxing myself) for 15 years at that point, and for 15 years and counting, she knew (or was supposed to) that on the day she was ready to sell, she should come see me first

The first flipper also offered it to me for $700k and I said yes, and then a few days later when I called him to confirm he told me "sorry, sold it already (for less!)"

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

The lady who sold it to the first flipper (who I know, I also know the second flipper very well) was really stupid, she was in a hurry to sell, she knew I've been interested (on second thought, I edited out why because I'm not that hell-bent on doxxing myself) for 15 years at that point, and for 15 years and counting, she knew (or was supposed to) that on the day she was ready to sell, she should come see me first

The first flipper also offered it to me for $700k and I said yes, and then a few days later when I called him to confirm he told me "sorry, sold it already (for less!)"

Yes there is something fishy with the two sales with a 250,000 dollar price increase just days apart.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes there is something fishy with the two sales with a 250,000 dollar price increase just days apart.

$250k being the new capital gains lower exclusion rate is interesting. Though honestly the difference is easily eaten up by transaction costs even if done on the cheap. Mortgage fraud also a possiblty.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes there is something fishy with the two sales with a 250,000 dollar price increase just days apart.

Not really, in fact. It's 100% seller stupidity/impatience. She (the original seller) received like 15+ offers, and just wanted to move on so she brainlessly accepted the first one that she found okay, and that was the Brochu-Lapointe one. No realtor involved (I generally dislike realtors (sorry travis3000!) but in this case, she'd have greatly benefited from having one.) She had had the building for decades and it was paid off at that point so $400k in cash right then and there seemed perfectly acceptable at first sight (she lives in the rural Eastern Townships 45 minutes away from Sherbrooke and probably didn't keep her finger on the pulse of the urban Sherbrooke market).

The other transaction was more like the correct value at the time, slightly low-ish IMO (which is why when ~$700k was discussed with the first flipper I said hell yes!) which means the first flipper ALSO left a bit of money on the table accepting Seb's all-cash offer without double-checking with me (I'd have been ok with $800k+) and now two years later Nik (who I also know very well and talk to regularly, for various good reasons, as you can guess) overpaid by a fair bit IMO (but I'm not complaining about it ).

[Greetingsfromcanada]

Originally Posted by lio45

Housing isn’t going to get cheaper. By the time of the federal election in 2025, housing will be less cheap than now, and we’ll have more of a housing crisis compared to the situation now.

If they paused immigration, market rate asking rents would decline multiple hundred dollars per month. Same thing happened during covid. If the LPC want to win, the solution is staring them in the face. But they're likely too ideologically driven on immigration to do it