Statistics Canada Reports II

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by theman23

To add to this, disposable income adjusted for inflation has fallen post-pandemic for all income quintiles except the top one. I'm guessing there is a bit of base effect here due to CERB in 2020, but there is likely more than that because trend isn't correcting itself:

It looks like that "wage growth" Nite keeps bragging about is disproportionately powered by public sector wage growth:

What's driving Canadian wage growth? All those federal government employees
https://financialpost.com/news/econo...MyNzUuMC4wLjA.

But while business sector wage growth has cooled, wage gains for public sector employees remain at elevated levels. In the first quarter of this year, business sector wage growth increased by 3.4 per cent and non-business sector wage growth increased by 8.4 per cent, according to productivity accounts data. While the report notes the latter increase marks a deceleration from the final quarter of 2023, when non-business sector wages rose by 10 per cent, it remains high.

Employment in the federal public sector has increased by 657,000 workers since 2019, a 17 per cent increase. The private sector, meanwhile, experienced an increase of 662,000 positions, or four per cent, in the same period.

The report notes that at the end of 2019, there were four private sector workers for every public sector worker, now but now that ratio is down to 3.5 to one.

“The level of compensation and extent of hiring we’re seeing at the federal level, I think does lead to distortions,” Bartlett said.

“It becomes a lot more favourable to work for the federal public service than it does in the private sector or the public service for municipal and provincial governments.”


The full Desjardins report:
https://www.desjardins.com/content/dam/pdf/en/personal/savings-investment/economic-studies/canada-public-wages-july-2-2024.pdf

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Quebec would have to see pretty incredible growth to hit 10 million before BC hits 6 million...

for sure BC will hit 6M (300,000 still to go) way before Quebec hits 10M (903,000 still to go).

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Immigrants & NPRs themselves are also collateral damage. For all the virtue signalling around our immigration policies, unemployment is rising faster amongst recent immigrants than any other demographic, and is twice the national average:

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-...nt-immigrants/

It's a dog-eat-dog world for Canadian youth and NPRs, a hunger games type scenario devouring the future of both groups.


https://x.com/BrendonBernard_/status...17123022954680


https://x.com/BrendonBernard_/status...28780499550565

[Aimhigh]

The Liberal party has already decided to sacrifice everybody under 40 to the gods of slave wages and landlords. I doubt they'll do much to address this.

[lio45]

They’re addressing this rising unemployment crisis by bringing in more FNSs, each of whom, as per Nite’s Law, creates 1.2 Canadian jobs upon landing here. The more new suckers with a pulse we import, the lower the unemployment rate will fall.

[ssiguy]

New unemployment rates came out rising from 6.2% last month to 6.4% this. Canada actually lost 1600 jobs in the month despite record population growth. The exceptionally poor showing was basically nationwide. Clearly our illiterate PM will see the only way to solve rising unemployment is to further increase population growth..................to infinity and beyond.

[GeneralLeeTPHLS]

Originally Posted by lio45

They’re addressing this rising unemployment crisis by bringing in more FNSs, each of whom, as per Nite’s Law, creates 1.2 Canadian jobs upon landing here. The more new suckers with a pulse we import, the lower the unemployment rate will fall.

Indeed. We're bringing the Canadian Dream for everyone

Well, we'll just keep selling that kool aid to FNS and newcomers anyway.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

New unemployment rates came out rising from 6.2% last month to 6.4% this. Canada actually lost 1600 jobs in the month despite record population growth. The exceptionally poor showing was basically nationwide. Clearly our illiterate PM will see the only way to solve rising unemployment is to further increase population growth..................to infinity and beyond.

As above shows the labour particpation has dropped especially for 15-24 year olds. In fact this month's unemployment shows it is the worst student job market since 1998.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by lio45

They’re addressing this rising unemployment crisis by bringing in more FNSs, each of whom, as per Nite’s Law, creates 1.2 Canadian jobs upon landing here. The more new suckers with a pulse we import, the lower the unemployment rate will fall.

Trudeau Liberals: “We must import more cheap labour to compensate for Canada’s low birth rate and we have no plan to house them”

Canadians:
Many Canadians in their 20s and 30s are delaying having kids — and some say high rent is a factor
-55% of Canadians 18-34 in recent study said housing crisis affected their decision to start a family
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/rent-...kids-1.7252926

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Trudeau Liberals: “We must import more cheap labour to compensate for Canada’s low birth rate and we have no plan to house them”

Canadians:
Many Canadians in their 20s and 30s are delaying having kids — and some say high rent is a factor
-55% of Canadians 18-34 in recent study said housing crisis affected their decision to start a family
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/rent-...kids-1.7252926

The housing situation definitely isn't helping things. Although in fairness, birth rates have been declining for decades across most wealthy countries so it's not like it was caused by the recent housing issues.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

The housing situation definitely isn't helping things. Although in fairness, birth rates have been declining for decades across most wealthy countries so it's not like it was caused by the recent housing issues.

That's not entirely true. Globally, birth rates have indeed been steadily dropping for the past several decades as developing countries become wealthier, more urbanized, and have improved access to contraceptives. In Canada's case though, the birth rate has been below replacement since the early 70s (post sexual revolution) but more or less held steady in the 1.5-1.8 range from the late 70s through to the mid-2010s. It was really only in the past 5 or so years where it's dropped more dramatically (down to 1.3 in 2023).

The drop from around 2016-2023 has been the fastest decline in fertility since the late 60s - a 19% drop in just 7 years. This correlates pretty neatly with escalating housing prices, which also started rising rapidly around 2016. Absent any other dramatic cultural shifts in this same time period, it's hard to imagine any explanation other than cost of living & economic uncertainty.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

That's not entirely true. Globally, birth rates have indeed been steadily dropping for the past several decades as developing countries become wealthier, more urbanized, and have improved access to contraceptives. In Canada's case though, the birth rate has been below replacement since the early 70s (post sexual revolution) but more or less held steady in the 1.5-1.8 range from the late 70s through to the mid-2010s. It was really only in the past 5 or so years where it's dropped more dramatically (down to 1.3 in 2023).

The drop from around 2016-2023 has been the fastest decline in fertility since the late 60s - a 19% drop in just 7 years. This correlates pretty neatly with escalating housing prices, which also started rising rapidly around 2016. Absent any other dramatic cultural shifts in this same time period, it's hard to imagine any explanation other than cost of living & economic uncertainty.

Yes, industrialization, urbanization, and a change in religious and ideological beliefs, and lifestyle, account for most of the change. People don't need children anymore to support their family based livelihoods, or for security in decrepit old age. However, the biggest change on the graph reflects the availability of contraception. It's probably good though that Republican and Conservative types will soon succeed in reversing that again.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

That's not entirely true. Globally, birth rates have indeed been steadily dropping for the past several decades as developing countries become wealthier, more urbanized, and have improved access to contraceptives. In Canada's case though, the birth rate has been below replacement since the early 70s (post sexual revolution) but more or less held steady in the 1.5-1.8 range from the late 70s through to the mid-2010s. It was really only in the past 5 or so years where it's dropped more dramatically (down to 1.3 in 2023).

The drop from around 2016-2023 has been the fastest decline in fertility since the late 60s - a 19% drop in just 7 years. This correlates pretty neatly with escalating housing prices, which also started rising rapidly around 2016. Absent any other dramatic cultural shifts in this same time period, it's hard to imagine any explanation other than cost of living & economic uncertainty.

But that's similar to the birth rate change in the US, where we're told house prices aren't (generally) as terrible.


BirthGauge on twitter

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Changing City

But that's similar to the birth rate change in the US, where we're told house prices aren't (generally) as terrible.

And also Alberta, which is also more affordable than many other provinces.



Business Council of Alberta

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Changing City

But that's similar to the birth rate change in the US, where we're told house prices aren't (generally) as terrible.


BirthGauge on twitter

The USA seems to have stabilized post COVID on that graph while Canada is still falling off a cliff. It seems like the two big events post 1960s were the GFC for both countries and COVID in Canada, both of which disproportionally hurt young people economically.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by theman23

The USA seems to have stabilized post COVID on that graph while Canada is still falling off a cliff. It seems like the two big events post 1960s were the GFC for both countries and COVID in Canada, both of which disproportionally hurt young people economically.

Yes, but apparently US stabilization was short-lived. CDC data for 2033 show "The general fertility rate in the United States decreased by 3% from 2022, reaching a historic low. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, following a brief 1% increase from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the rate consistently decreased by 2% annually."

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Yes, but apparently US stabilization was short-lived. CDC data for 2033 show "The general fertility rate in the United States decreased by 3% from 2022, reaching a historic low. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, following a brief 1% increase from 2020 to 2021. From 2014 to 2020, the rate consistently decreased by 2% annually."

We’ll see what Canadas official numbers in 2023 are. As per the CDC report, fertility fell 1% in 2022 in the USA. The same number in 2022 was over seven times worse in Canada (7.4% per Statcan). I don’t know how reliable the data is, but the Twitter profile you linked claims our fertility rate in 2023 was 1.24, which would be a 6.7% drop in 2023.

Also, I don’t think anyone has ever argued that affordability was improving in the United States. You can’t really use the USA as a control if you’re only looking at a binary outcome of whether fertility got better or worse. It’s universally accepted that they have own cost of living crisis so you would expect fertility rates their to worsen as well. The situation is just much worse in Canada, and the more precipitous drop in fertility rate here supports the theory that the two are linked.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Changing City

But that's similar to the birth rate change in the US, where we're told house prices aren't (generally) as terrible.


BirthGauge on twitter

The US is also going through a similar cost-of-living crisis though, albeit slightly less severe than ours - but also with fewer parental benefits than us to make up for it. Likewise for a number of European nations. We're far from the only country experiencing this phenomenon right now, even if ours is particularly pronounced.

If not the sharp rise in cost-of-living and generally deteriorating economic prospects for young people in recent years, I'm curious to hear what other theories people might have to explain rapidly falling birth rates.

[Beedok]

Everywhere is going through a cost of living crisis. Europe, China, the US, Australia...

We'd be doing better on housing if we cleared out SFH zoning and brought in more blue collar immigrants to actually work on construction, since young Canadians have been told for decades to get university based office jobs.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Beedok

Everywhere is going through a cost of living crisis. Europe, China, the US, Australia...

We'd be doing better on housing if we cleared out SFH zoning and brought in more blue collar immigrants to actually work on construction, since young Canadians have been told for decades to get university based office jobs.

We’ve brought in 3 million undifferentiated workers over the last few years. We’ve never before brought in this many workers, and it seems like they don’t want to work in construction either.

The reality is that immigration can bring bodies in, but probably isn’t a magic bullet to address skilled labour shortages. If there is a dearth of construction workers worldwide, you might as well be squeezing water from a stone.