Federal Government & Politics II

[ScreamingViking]

Happy Canada Day, everyone.

Despite our squabbles on this and other forums, and the issues we all have with the way our country and its parts are run, I think those that live here should celebrate that we're at home in a relatively safe and beautiful land, without many threats (natural or national). And we're able to speak our minds without some authority cracking down on it.

I'm grateful.

I wish the best to you all!

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well asuming the 2026 housing market, healtcare capacity and general need for immigrants is X thousand. Do we want them as PRs or the thosuands of qualified people who will be applying from abroad. If for some reason all those problems are solved and we need a population infusion ok sure.

Pragmatic perspective. Why are we kicking out people that are settled and integrated into Canadian society. Or worse encouraging them to go into the underground economy. Those that had not successfully integrated into Canadian society they would have left on their own.

Some of those people are going to be working in housing sector or health care.

Happy Canada Day.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by casper

Honestly, the best thing we can do is just allow them to transition to permanent residents, especially if they can hold a job. They are already here and ae building ties.

Creating an illegal sub-culture (aka the US) is a bad decision.

There are other options. Starting with the labour market and the regulation of employers. The U.S. has always rejected such options because the dirty secret is that they have an insatiable thirst for cheap labour.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by casper

Honestly, the best thing we can do is just allow them to transition to permanent residents, especially if they can hold a job. They are already here and ae building ties.

Creating an illegal sub-culture (aka the US) is a bad decision.

That would just encourage other bad actors to take advantage of every loophole to get into Canada. This will just exacerbate the problem of flooding the country with low skilled low quality labour.

[casper]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

That would just encourage other bad actors to take advantage of every loophole to get into Canada. This will just exacerbate the problem of flooding the country with low skilled low quality labour.

How so? You have someone that is in the country legally now on a temporarily permit. You also them to transition to permeant. They have already gone through whatever security screen is needed to obtain their temporary status.

These "low skilled low quality labour" have Canadian degrees at the end of their student visas.

The temporary foreign workers well, they are doing a job for an employer that Canada has already decided can't be filled domestically. Are you proposing they be deported so the employer can apply to bring someone else in to do the same job?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

How so? You have someone that is in the country legally now on a temporarily permit. You also them to transition to permeant. They have already gone through whatever security screen is needed to obtain their temporary status.

These "low skilled low quality labour" have Canadian degrees at the end of their student visas.

The temporary foreign workers well, they are doing a job for an employer that Canada has already decided can't be filled domestically. Are you proposing they be deported so the employer can apply to bring someone else in to do the same job?

These are people who were admitted to Canada to meet a temporary need or for a temporary purpose. To the extent to which some of them may meet a permanent need then they should go through the process for that. If they told IRCC they wanted to learn web browsing at a career college then they should take their newfound web browsing skills to their home country.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

Honestly, the best thing we can do is just allow them to transition to permanent residents, especially if they can hold a job. They are already here and ae building ties.

Creating an illegal sub-culture (aka the US) is a bad decision.

Boy are you gonna be surprised when you see the biggest backlash comes from immigrant areas. There's a reason LPC support in the immigrant heavy 905 is collapsing. They are carrying most of the burden of high housing costs and suppressed wages for little gain.

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

There are other options. Starting with the labour market and the regulation of employers. The U.S. has always rejected such options because the dirty secret is that they have an insatiable thirst for cheap labour.

We kinda tried that with the LMIA. All it did was create a market for fraud.

[theman23]

Should and could are different things. I have family members who practice immigration law, and from what I understand the CBSA was having trouble removing people even prior to the pandemic and IRB had a backlog of appeal cases. There’s no way we can handle the deportation of 2+ million NPRs (or however many it’ll end up being when the dust settles). I doubt even a CPC government would want to find the money and risk the political fallout for such a massive undertaking.

These people are here to stay. Normalizing when their visas expire is likely the best path forward, but it would have been better if they were never let in to the country in the first place.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

These "low skilled low quality labour" have Canadian degrees at the end of their student visas.

Neither they, nor potential employers, nor the government think those college diplomas are worth anything. Apparently, you're the only one who can't understand the scam.

And again these are the majority of the problem cases. We used to bring in hundreds of thousands of students during the Harper era. Never had the complaints we have now. Most of them were middle class students going to legit programs. Now we take in the faux students that institutions elsewhere are rejecting.

Australian universities ban Indian students from Punjab, Gujarat and Haryana amid visa fraud concerns

Two more Australian universities have banned the recruitment of students from some Indian states in response to fresh concerns over a surge in fraudulent visa applications, a media report said.

The Federation University in Victoria and Western Sydney University in New South Wales wrote to education agents last week instructing them to no longer recruit students from Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, as well as the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir, The Sydney Morning Herald reported.
....

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/di...oncerns-510818

Guess which Indian states more than about 60-70% of Indian students to Canada come from? The high quality students who graduate from IIT, IIM or IIS don't even consider Canada anymore. They don't want to be associated with the above lot.

Will add too that it's also convenient for some that the Canadian government pretends all Indian immigrants (a country of 1.4B) are the same. And that there's no cultural differences between different regions or differences in capacity to assimilate between different socio-economic groups.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

Should and could are different things. I have family members who practice immigration law, and from what I understand the CBSA was having trouble removing people even prior to the pandemic and IRB had a backlog of appeal cases. There’s no way we can handle the deportation of 2+ million NPRs (or however many it’ll end up being when the dust settles). I doubt even a CPC government would want to find the money and risk the political fallout for such a massive undertaking.

These people are here to stay. Normalizing when their visas expire is likely the best path forward, but it would have been better if they were never let in to the country in the first place.

I am genuinely curious how easy/difficult it is to live in Canada as an illegal. Especially if healthcare cards, SINs and visas are cancelled. It's not the US where so much can be done with cash. Life as an illegal in Canada is bound to be so much worse than the US. I do think many would eventually leave when they realize they have no real shot as an illegal.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am genuinely curious how easy/difficult it is to live in Canada as an illegal. Especially if healthcare cards, SINs and visas are cancelled. It's not the US where so much can be done with cash. Life as an illegal in Canada is bound to be so much worse than the US. I do think many would eventually leave when they realize they have no real shot as an illegal.

I also wonder how many want to stay illegally. If they wanted to come here illegally and work under the table they could have jumped a tourist visa and saved a lot of money on tuition at career colleges and taxes on wages.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I also wonder how many want to stay illegally. If they wanted to come here illegally and work under the table they could have jumped a tourist visa and saved a lot of money on tuition at career colleges and taxes on wages.

Hence the recent protests. They believed this was a government endorsed "pay for play" PR scheme via colleges. Now that it's falling apart, they feel betrayed.

I don't think the majority of them will stick around either. Maybe the desperate few whose parents sold land back home. But the lower middle class brats who make up the bunch of these, are in no way suited to living the hard life of undocumented migrants.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am genuinely curious how easy/difficult it is to live in Canada as an illegal. Especially if healthcare cards, SINs and visas are cancelled. It's not the US where so much can be done with cash. Life as an illegal in Canada is bound to be so much worse than the US. I do think many would eventually leave when they realize they have no real shot as an illegal.

Many probably even most would leave. Even a few hundred thousand more illegal residents would be substantial. It is certainly possible to access healthcare and already an issue in some ERs. My understanding is the illegal residents accessing healhtcare skew older. Though this may reflect need for healthcare rather than the age of illegals in Canada.

I am sure there is a lot of work for cash that is still possible. Construction it is widespread. New options would open up too. Childcare is likely less and less possible with $10 daycare but with nanny is still an option for many with the total cost $20/hr+. Cleaning is very lucrative and also mostly a cash business. If you have a decently affordable place to live you can certainly do well earning cash if you are working substantial hours.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Boy are you gonna be surprised when you see the biggest backlash comes from immigrant areas. There's a reason LPC support in the immigrant heavy 905 is collapsing. They are carrying most of the burden of high housing costs and suppressed wages for little gain.

Trudeau Liberal sycophants can continue to live in their delusions, but ignore this reality at their peril.

There's also reputational damage by superficial association, and my colleagues/friends who are Canadian born with Goan and Tamil backgrounds are the most vocal and upset about these immigration ponzi schemes.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Many probably even most would leave. Even a few hundred thousand more illegal residents would be substantial. It is certainly possible to access healthcare and already an issue in some ERs. My understanding is the illegal residents accessing healhtcare skew older. Though this may reflect need for healthcare rather than the age of illegals in Canada.

I am sure there is a lot of work for cash that is still possible. Construction it is widespread. New options would open up too. Childcare is likely less and less possible with $10 daycare but with nanny is still an option for many with the total cost $20/hr+. Cleaning is very lucrative and also mostly a cash business. If you have a decently affordable place to live you can certainly do well earning cash if you are working substantial hours.

It's unfortunate that the foreign student surge isn't well understood and they all get lumped in together. There's basically three groups.

1) The remittance group. They want to earn dollars to send home. They are usually TFWs. Occasionally they'll use student visas as a way in. This surged when 40 hrs per week was allowed for students.
They aren't always committed to staying here. They will if they can. They'll move on if they can't.

2) Pay for play. This group saw college diplomas as the cost of getting PR. Their ultimate goal isn't to slave away as undocumented dishwashers. They are supposed to get PR and sponsors the rest. In this group there's two subgroups. One is more desperate than the other. There are those whose families have taken substantial financial risk to get them here. They are more desperate. They may stay on illegally just to pay off debts at home. The second group is middle class families who can afford to send their kids abroad to study. They won't stay if the plans don't work out. They'll go look for something else.

3) Legit students. They are still here. Though in shaker proportions. Getting PR isn't usually their number one priority. They often cross shop Canadian schools against other Western schools. They tend to prioritize their careers and will go wherever that takes them.

The government (and its apologists) have tried to act like we're getting #3. But we're getting fewer of them and tons of #2 and lots of #1. And the system perversely preferences and rewards those groups more than #3.

I have said before and I'll stand by it. Students make the best immigrants. They get time to improve language skills and acculturate. There's no problem with foreign qualifications. And they come here at the start of their working lives without us having to invest in raising them and while they fund our postsecondary system. But this benefit math only works if we're actually getting legit students.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Trudeau Liberal sycophants can continue to live in their delusions, but ignore this reality at their peril.

There's also reputational damage by superficial association, and my colleagues/friends who are Canadian born with Goan and Tamil backgrounds are the most vocal and upset about these immigration ponzi schemes.

Yep. Because if you're a Westernized Goan (I'm culturally similar) this absolutely sucks. Average white guy on the street can't tell the difference. And worse, the entire Canadian conception of "Indian" is now defined by mostly middle class hick North Indians. This like somebody believing a Swede and an Italian are the same. But good luck explaining that to most. So in ridings where there's lots of Goans (Mississauga) for example, you'll see them abandon the LPC. This is playing out locally too. This is part of the unspoken motivation behind Mississauga wanting out of Peel Region. They don't want to be mentioned in the same breath as Brampton.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's unfortunate that the foreign student surge isn't well understood and they all get lumped in together. There's basically three groups.

1) The remittance group. They want to earn dollars to send home. They are usually TFWs. Occasionally they'll use student visas as a way in. This surged when 40 hrs per week was allowed for students.
They aren't always committed to staying here. They will if they can. They'll move on if they can't.

2) Pay for play. This group saw college diplomas as the cost of getting PR. Their ultimate goal isn't to slave away as undocumented dishwashers. They are supposed to get PR and sponsors the rest. In this group there's two subgroups. One is more desperate than the other. There are those whose families have taken substantial financial risk to get them here. They are more desperate. They may stay on illegally just to pay off debts at home. The second group is middle class families who can afford to send their kids abroad to study. They won't stay if the plans don't work out. They'll go look for something else.

3) Legit students. They are still here. Though in shaker proportions. Getting PR isn't usually their number one priority. They often cross shop Canadian schools against other Western schools. They tend to prioritize their careers and will go wherever that takes them.

The government (and its apologists) have tried to act like we're getting #3. But we're getting fewer of them and tons of #2 and lots of #1. And the system perversely preferences and rewards those groups more than #3.

I have said before and I'll stand by it. Students make the best immigrants. They get time to improve language skills and acculturate. There's no problem with foreign qualifications. And they come here at the start of their working lives without us having to invest in raising them and while they fund our postsecondary system. But this benefit math only works if we're actually getting legit students.

Good analysis. There is very much overlap. Canada did make a strategic decision to bring in more students on a tract towards PR. This was a competitive advantage to US and UK policies that were actively kicking out students post graduate. The vast majority of students want to stay. There are a few uber wealthy mostly Chinese students who truly want the degree and the experience with plans to return but they are the minority and mostly don't choose Canada other than U of T and UBC anyway.

The debts back home group are in for a shock should we change the rules and are the most likley to become desperate. I feel badly for them for sure but we need to decide what is best for us as long as we honor committments that were made any other expectaions are on them. PR for example is not a given.

[Truenorth00]

I want to add too that a lot of people don't understand how much misinformation and predation is happening. It's not just strip mall colleges. A lot of real colleges turned themselves into scam colleges effectively. Many pay marketing agencies in India to sell the dream. And these agencies often lie and misconstrue both life in Canada and how easy it is to be successful here and get PR.

You could argue people there should know better. But imagine for a second that a country Canadians look at favorably starts marketing an easy path way to residency and citizenship. Let's say it's Switzerland. And there's ads saying all you gotta do is study for a year and you'll get residency in 2 years and citizenship in 5 years. Then you can move your whole family to Switzerland. The schools look legit. After all, the Swiss government wouldn't allow it and give visas if it were fake right? Lots of people would ignore those adds. But you can bet they would find 10-15 000 suckers to move to Switzerland as dishwashers and Uber drivers. That's about the proportion of Indians these agencies hook for Canadian colleges every year.

We shouldn't blame them. We should blame the government that enabled the creation of an entire immigration scam industry through their policies.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Trudeau Liberal sycophants can continue to live in their delusions, but ignore this reality at their peril.

There's also reputational damage by superficial association, and my colleagues/friends who are Canadian born with Goan and Tamil backgrounds are the most vocal and upset about these immigration ponzi schemes.

Exactly. If I were a highly-educated and patriotic Canadian of South Asian ancestry (we have a few on this forum!) I’d be pissed that it’s now become a reasonable assumption that I’m an Indentured Servant fresh off the plane.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Hence the recent protests. They believed this was a government endorsed "pay for play" PR scheme via colleges. Now that it's falling apart, they feel betrayed.

I don't think the majority of them will stick around either. Maybe the desperate few whose parents sold land back home. But the lower middle class brats who make up the bunch of these, are in no way suited to living the hard life of undocumented migrants.

I wonder if offering a sort of "compassionate exit" program for these people - where the government will pay for your plane ticket back home and pay off some of your outstanding debts (up to a reasonable maximum) - would ultimately be cheaper than trying to formally deport them.