Canadian Foreign Policy & Affairs II

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Thinking selfishly, this is actually not a bad outcome for Canada.

The Biden administration was very protectionist but also very competent and, with things like the Inflation Reduction Act subsidizing so many critical industries, really put us in a corner. Not only do I expect a lot of the subsidies for EV manufacturing to get cut - which is good for us - but under Trump the Americans were more easy to cajole when it came to trade arrangements.

Also, if Trump really does instate a 10% tarriff on anything imported into the USA, even from friendly countries, then it might make sense to assemble everything in Canada, import to the US and pay the 10% tarriff rather than to have parts move back and forth across the border. God knows the Americans will be fighting multiple trade wars with everyone, so they may not have the resources to devote to fighting us.

Individually, we also have the opportunity to get predictably rich. Trump will probably make Jared Kushner treasury secretary and then there will be a huge tax cut for the rich, and money is just going to pour into the stock market. I'm going to invest in S&P 500 index funds.

Of course, about 18 months later it's all going to go to shit, but might as well party until then.

Grab what you can on the way out, boys!

We're their 3rd largest trading partner, and their largest "first world" trading partner. What makes you think we wouldn't be high on the prioirity list?

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes that seems likely assuming Biden chose idealogically consistent delegates which hopeully given the situation is what he did. The grasroots though also has a lot of delegates. Super delegates and just people you have to choose. It is a wildcard still. It's possible there is a pledge to only choose for example a woman of color. That leaves Harris or someone radical. Or Michelle Obama I guess.

Super delegates are 15% and most of them are elected officials.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by jonny24

We're their 3rd largest trading partner, and their largest "first world" trading partner. What makes you think we wouldn't be high on the prioirity list?

Even if we are on their priority list, I think the American federal government will be a shitty place to work under Trump and things will be disorganized. I'm sure a lot of talented people who really understand their files will quit in frustration, and we can probably use it to our advantage.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Thinking selfishly, this is actually not a bad outcome for Canada.

The Biden administration was very protectionist but also very competent and, with things like the Inflation Reduction Act subsidizing so many critical industries, really put us in a corner. Not only do I expect a lot of the subsidies for EV manufacturing to get cut - which is good for us - but under Trump the Americans were more easy to cajole when it came to trade arrangements.

Also, if Trump really does instate a 10% tarriff on anything imported into the USA, even from friendly countries, then it might make sense to assemble everything in Canada, import to the US and pay the 10% tarriff rather than to have parts move back and forth across the border. God knows the Americans will be fighting multiple trade wars with everyone, so they may not have the resources to devote to fighting us.

Individually, we also have the opportunity to get predictably rich. Trump will probably make Jared Kushner treasury secretary and then there will be a huge tax cut for the rich, and money is just going to pour into the stock market. I'm going to invest in S&P 500 index funds.

Of course, about 18 months later it's all going to go to shit, but might as well party until then.

Grab what you can on the way out, boys!

I think this is rose tinted glasses. I think a lot of people aren't looking at how much Trump's orbit has changed. Most of the people in his first administration aren't coming back. And instead you have a whole network of think tanks that have been working away the last few years to try and flesh out his populist vision into policy. These aren't carpetbaggers and hangers on, like the last lot who sought to impose their agenda on Trump. This is the cold and calculating lot. And they are coming with both sledgehammers and scalpels.

I think betting against Trump 2.0 is exceedingly dangerous. But it's absolutely reflective of the typically Canadian POV that the US has no choice but to be cooperative with us. This is exceedingly a dangerous bet. And that danger would be accelerating with Trump.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think this is rose tinted glasses. I think a lot of people aren't looking at how much Trump's orbit has changed. Most of the people in his first administration aren't coming back. And instead you have a whole network of think tanks that have been working away the last few years to try and flesh out his populist vision into policy. These aren't carpetbaggers and hangers on, like the last lot who sought to impose their agenda on Trump. This is the cold and calculating lot. And they are coming with both sledgehammers and scalpels.

I think betting against Trump 2.0 is exceedingly dangerous. But it's absolutely reflective of the typically Canadian POV that the US has no choice but to be cooperative with us. This is exceedingly a dangerous bet. And that danger would be accelerating with Trump.

I'm not using rose-coloured glasses here: I don't think that the Americans will cooperate with us. They never have. We compete with them. They have so many inherent advantages that they inevitably win and we accept the scraps. I was really concerned during the first half of Biden's term that the Americans were now coming after our scraps!

But with Trump, the level of incompetence and inertia is such that we actually have a fighting chance to carve out a little more. One of the only reasons left for why I could still vote Liberal in the upcoming election is that they're good on trade.

The other thing I foresee is the usual American story where a president comes in and has about 20 months to do stuff, and then the midterms happen and the house and senate go to the other party, and nothing gets done. This is frustrating for Americans because half, or sometimes three-quarters, of a president's administration involves a lot of stalemate and inaction while the world evolves in the background, but it can also insulate them from the worst excesses of an imperious president.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think this is rose tinted glasses. I think a lot of people aren't looking at how much Trump's orbit has changed. Most of the people in his first administration aren't coming back. And instead you have a whole network of think tanks that have been working away the last few years to try and flesh out his populist vision into policy. These aren't carpetbaggers and hangers on, like the last lot who sought to impose their agenda on Trump. This is the cold and calculating lot. And they are coming with both sledgehammers and scalpels.

I think betting against Trump 2.0 is exceedingly dangerous. But it's absolutely reflective of the typically Canadian POV that the US has no choice but to be cooperative with us. This is exceedingly a dangerous bet. And that danger would be accelerating with Trump.

I agree. Trump 2.0 won't be the bumbling idiot whose worst instincts were headed off by his own incompetence and administrative chaos like what happened in his first term. It will be a highly mobilized crypto-fascist regime that has a firm handle on the machinery of government. Basically, what we all scared of in 2016 will actually happen for real this time. I think there are way too many moderates & conservatives in the US who don't quite get this distinction.

[1overcosc]

Another factor: Trump is proposing a gigantic operation to round up and detain illegal immigrants in the US. The think tanks behind his campaign have a plan to actually do this for real: they're honest-to-god planning to put 11 million in detention.

While this plan gets going... how many of those people do you think will try to hop over to Canada? If even 10% of them do, that collapses our entire asylum system. We saw what a few hundred thousand students could do to our country, now imagine millions of asylum claimants. If the Trump administration won't let those people make genuine asylum claims with free & fair processing of said claims (a real possibility), the SCC here will probably throw out the safe third country agreement and we won't be able to send them back.

This could be a nightmare scenario for us.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I agree. Trump 2.0 won't be the bumbling idiot whose worst instincts were headed off by his own incompetence and administrative chaos like what happened in his first term. It will be a highly mobilized crypto-fascist regime that has a firm handle on the machinery of government. Basically, what we all scared of in 2016 will actually happen for real this time. I think there are way too many moderates & conservatives in the US who don't quite get this distinction.

I occasionally cruise American Greatness. What I read there scares me.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Another factor: Trump is proposing a gigantic operation to round up and detain illegal immigrants in the US. The think tanks behind his campaign have a plan to actually do this for real: they're honest-to-god planning to put 11 million in detention.

While this plan gets going... how many of those people do you think will try to hop over to Canada? If even 10% of them do, that collapses our entire asylum system. We saw what a few hundred thousand students could do to our country, now imagine millions of asylum claimants. If the Trump administration won't let those people make genuine asylum claims with free & fair processing of said claims (a real possibility), the SCC here will probably throw out the safe third country agreement and we won't be able to send them back.

This could be a nightmare scenario for us.

Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. It struck me that he totally dodged the question in the "debate" last night. There will be rhetoric and some level of action, and it might even spur some to flee north, but it won't be 11 million people in detention.

[Truenorth00]

Somebody leaked the name of the new CDS. No surprises based on this government's preferences.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/car...ence-1.7249581

[MonctonRad]

So, the new naval surface combatants are going to be classified as destroyers.

• Video Link

They will form the River Class Destroyers

The first of them will be the Fraser, St-Laurent and McKenzie.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Another factor: Trump is proposing a gigantic operation to round up and detain illegal immigrants in the US. The think tanks behind his campaign have a plan to actually do this for real: they're honest-to-god planning to put 11 million in detention.

While this plan gets going... how many of those people do you think will try to hop over to Canada? If even 10% of them do, that collapses our entire asylum system. We saw what a few hundred thousand students could do to our country, now imagine millions of asylum claimants. If the Trump administration won't let those people make genuine asylum claims with free & fair processing of said claims (a real possibility), the SCC here will probably throw out the safe third country agreement and we won't be able to send them back.

This could be a nightmare scenario for us.

Those people do t even have to hop over to Canada. Trump will come after Canada for the huge increase in migrants trying cross over from here into the USA. We’re seen as a lot more of a pushover than Mexico. Plus there’s no cohesive group of Canadians in the USA who will put pressure on US politicians during elections.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Somebody leaked the name of the new CDS. No surprises based on this government's preferences.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/car...ence-1.7249581

There were rumours of Octobob getting the nod. But another bald white guy was a bridge to far. 🤣

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

There were rumours of Octobob getting the nod. But another bald white guy was a bridge to far. 🤣

Octobob?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

There were rumours of Octobob getting the nod. But another bald white guy was a bridge to far. 🤣

I hear there are some spicy stories about her leadership in Iraq. And of course CPCC becomes CDS. Fits this government's MO. Oh well, hopefully she does her best to fix the myriad issues we have.

[Hybrid247]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

So, the new naval surface combatants are going to be classified as destroyers.

• Video Link

They will form the River Class Destroyers

The first of them will be the Fraser, St-Laurent and McKenzie.

Calling it a destroyer is an interesting choice given the lack of missiles it will carry compared to most destroyers. I'm guessing the ballistic missile launch capability influenced that choice. Perhaps they are also considering adding more VLS cells to the 2nd or 3rd batch of orders.

Construction has also officially started at Irving:
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-...sVO32I5kaqrT_g

[Hybrid247]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Good analysis. And you're right that any decision to get nuclear subs is basically a decision for the 2040s. That said, right now, I am not sure that any diesel subs we get would arrive before the 2040s either. Especially if we demand they be substantially built in Canada. Very likely we end up with a 5-10 years with no subs and a huge number of navy personnel posted overseas on exchange to ensure we retain basic submarine operations competency.

Pushing for substantial build in Canada would be a huge mistake IMO. We have zero sub building experience, let alone the facilities for such a massive undertaking (if I'm not mistaken). I also doubt our shipyards will have much capacity for that over the next 2 decades anyways given all the projects that are underway or in the pipeline (new OPV order seems to be forthcoming).

I don't think we'll have much of a choice but to have the subs built overseas, which is probably for the best. And I'm betting the Koreans can build them faster than anyone. They are an absolute powerhouse when it comes to shipbuilding. The first Batch 2 KSS-III sub has a projected commissioning of 2026 for the ROK navy, and it was only laid down in early 2023 - that's insanely quick build for a sub if that timeline holds true. It's not inconceivable that we would see the first of class handed over to the RCN by 2035 even with an order in 2030.

With that said, my above expectations may be a little rose-tinted. I can totally see a 5-10 year gap with no subs and RCN staff posted overseas to maintain competency, as you said. I've noticed instances of RAN personnel aboard RCN subs in the past, so I can totally see RCN personnel posted with the RAN on their diesel-electric subs.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Octobob?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Auchterlonie

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

Pushing for substantial build in Canada would be a huge mistake IMO. We have zero sub building experience, let alone the facilities for such a massive undertaking (if I'm not mistaken). I also doubt our shipyards will have much capacity for that over the next 2 decades anyways given all the projects that are underway or in the pipeline (new OPV order seems to be forthcoming).

I don't think we'll have much of a choice but to have the subs built overseas, which is probably for the best. And I'm betting the Koreans can build them faster than anyone. They are an absolute powerhouse when it comes to shipbuilding. The first Batch 2 KSS-III sub has a projected commissioning of 2026 for the ROK navy, and it was only laid down in early 2023 - that's insanely quick build for a sub if that timeline holds true. It's not inconceivable that we would see the first of class handed over to the RCN by 2035 even with an order in 2030.

With that said, my above expectations may be a little rose-tinted. I can totally see a 5-10 year gap with no subs and RCN staff posted overseas to maintain competency, as you said. I've noticed instances of RAN personnel aboard RCN subs in the past, so I can totally see RCN personnel posted with the RAN on their diesel-electric subs.

Seems like quite an upgrade over our current City Class minesweepers/patrol vessels.

I believe the RCN has 12 city class patrol vessels. Is the plan to replace these vessels with a similar number of new patrol ships?

The RCN has the potential to be a quite capable middle power navy:

- 15 destroyers
- 12 offshore patrol vessels (hopefully)
- 5 AOPS
- 8 submarines (ideally)
- 3 fleet replenishment ships

All we need is 2-3 amphibious assault ships/helicopter carriers and I would be more than happy.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

So Trump 2.0.....

I think we can all agree that Biden was terrible in the debate, but if there's any good news to come out of it, it's that it didn't really move the opinion needle much at all. Trump got a very slight bump post-debate, while Biden saw a slightly larger drop. The biggest winner was RFK:




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...t-newtab-en-us


The bad news is that even though Biden is leading the national polls, he's behind in those key swing states that will end up deciding the election. There's no room for error in this case, and so the most likely scenario is still a repeat of 2016 - Trump will lose the popular vote but win the electoral college.

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Thinking selfishly, this is actually not a bad outcome for Canada.

The Biden administration was very protectionist but also very competent and, with things like the Inflation Reduction Act subsidizing so many critical industries, really put us in a corner. Not only do I expect a lot of the subsidies for EV manufacturing to get cut - which is good for us - but under Trump the Americans were more easy to cajole when it came to trade arrangements.

Also, if Trump really does instate a 10% tarriff on anything imported into the USA, even from friendly countries, then it might make sense to assemble everything in Canada, import to the US and pay the 10% tarriff rather than to have parts move back and forth across the border. God knows the Americans will be fighting multiple trade wars with everyone, so they may not have the resources to devote to fighting us.

Individually, we also have the opportunity to get predictably rich. Trump will probably make Jared Kushner treasury secretary and then there will be a huge tax cut for the rich, and money is just going to pour into the stock market. I'm going to invest in S&P 500 index funds.

Of course, about 18 months later it's all going to go to shit, but might as well party until then.

Grab what you can on the way out, boys!

Trump might not be directly terrible for Canada in the immediate term, but he represents a more existential threat to the US-led, liberal democratic world order. And in the long run, it's not in our interest to be facing emboldened, belligerent states - particularly without US support. There's also lots of room for our relationship with the US itself to become more hostile than it historically has been.

Like it or not, we're ultimately just a vassal in the American empire; so any inward-turn or decline in fortunes on their part is liability to us. More than anything though, the unpredictability and chaos of another Trump administration is a huge wildcard.