Federal Government & Politics II

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

So many uncommitted potential voters

Goes to show you how noisy the partisan commentators are compared to the bulk of voters who will pick based on factors like how the economy has treated them around election time. Of course, some undecideds won't bother to vote and in FPTP a lot of votes won't make any difference.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Nope, the LPC wagon is hitched to JT - and it sinks or swims with him alone. What that poll does indicate is that it's not JT that's the problem (only one) with the LPC as the government, it's all the other stuff. The stuff which they give no indication of changing or even thinking needs changing.

That distinction is meaningless, it’s not the 2015 LPC anymore.

JT, the current version of the LPC, and the LPC-that’s-been-JT’s-kingdom-for-a-decade-now are one and the same. Dissenting voices have been purged a long time ago. At this point JT’s policy failures are the LPC’s policy failures, and the LPC’s policy failures are JT’s policy failures.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

That distinction is meaningless, it’s not the 2015 LPC anymore.

JT, the current version of the LPC, and the LPC-that’s-been-JT’s-kingdom-for-a-decade-now are one and the same. Dissenting voices have been purged a long time ago. At this point JT’s policy failures are the LPC’s policy failures, and the LPC’s policy failures are JT’s policy failures.

But will the LPC learn from their mistakes, and take a modest turn towards the right for the 2029 election?

Or, will they just assume the electorate is wrong instead, and carry on with their socialist policies bankrupting the country.

This is the question.

[Hecate]

Sorry but the entire liberal party gets to wear this mess. They all sat back and let their glorious leader do whatever the hell he wanted. They all own it. Complacent bastards

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

But will the LPC learn from their mistakes, and take a modest turn towards the right for the 2029 election?

Or, will they just assume the electorate is wrong instead, and carry on with their socialist policies bankrupting the country.

This is the question.

I’m almost sure that the LPC, a party of power who is normally reasonable (Chrétien/Martin era…) will be able to completely purge itself of the Justinian Plague during PP’s four years of absolute power, and will be offering a decent alternative in ‘29.

Someone like you, who I expect to have soured on PP by 2029 (you’re already not a fan), might actually want to vote for the LPC at that time, if they rebuilt their party correctly.

It’s also possible that the electorally-toxic Justinian elements will manage to keep a grip on the Libs, and it’s also possible that PP will govern decently well, in which case, we’ll have PP in charge till ‘33. But it’s a certainty that the NGP will be back in charge after the Tories’ time in power — 8-12 years max, IMO.

[ssiguy]

The CBC article which YOWetal provided exemplifies part of the problem for the Liberals. It states that a Montreal West Island MP has been approached by some to take a run at the leadership. His name is Frank Baylis. If you haven't heard of him, join the club and this is the problem.

Trudeau has been so arrogant in his sticking around mantra that now it is very late in the day for any new leader to become a household name. It takes a while for Canadians to get to know who this new leader is and what they stand for and Trudeau has cut off any new leader from doing that. Baylis being from Quebec wouldn't exactly help as Liberals across the country are getting kind of tired of Quebec leaders which the party has almost made a job requirement. This is why I think the Liberals who are desperate to ditch Trudeau are hoping Carney will take the plunge.

Carney already has nationwide name recognition which is key for any leader but I don't think he will want the job as he is not the type to play second fiddle to anyone little alone for 5 years. Even if he ran, he still wouldn't win but, at least potentially, is the only leader that could at least hold the Tories to a minority gov't.

Trudeau has left such damage in his wake that it will be hard for them to find any legitimate contenders knowing that no matter how hard they try, they are going to get pulverized.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Curious why everyone wants Carney. What makes him so good? Isn't he also a believer in Keynesian economics ... aka deficit spending? Sounds like more of the same.

Carney fills the Liberal parachute as this Trudeau iteration of NDP/Liberals will not do the hard work that previous Liberal administrations did to right the Ship after the first Trudeau. Justin Trudeau and his band of activists have never met a payroll,petitioned a Bank for a business line of credit yet truly, truly believe that if Canada guts its extraction and energy industries the World will follow.
Pfft, St Pauls told them otherwise.

What are the Blue Liberals going to do as they have to take back their old Liberal brand or its done for more than an election cycle.Perhaps if PP learns on the job, gets a little lucky with the economy and manages Immigration the Blue Liberals may just find a new Home.Canada needs them.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

I’m almost sure that the LPC, a party of power who is normally reasonable (Chrétien/Martin era…) will be able to completely purge itself of the Justinian Plague during PP’s four years of absolute power, and will be offering a decent alternative in ‘29.

Justinian Plague - I like that very much.

As a history nerd, I am well aware that this plague prevented Eastern Roman Emperor Justinian from successfully reuniting the entire empire after the fifth century collapse. The plague was actually most likely the first known intrusion of the bubonic plague into western Europe.

The modern Justin is certainly a pox on all of Canada, so, the idea of the New Justinian Plague is spot on.

[kool maudit]

Look, unpopular opinion, but: Justin isn't really that extreme. He is just a contemporary centre-left leader with two qualities. One, a lot of his stuff seems outsourced, or "best practices from experts", and two he is personally sort of brittle and imperious. He is not different from Rutte or Ardern or a lot of them, and he isn't far from Sunak.

His failure, such as it is, is the failure of certain longstanding assumptions rather than something weird and unique to him.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

...he is personally sort of brittle and imperious.

Effete is probably the best single descriptor for Trudeau's mien. He is extraordinarily affected and premeditated in the way he speaks and carries himself, no doubt from his years reading poetry and playscripts to students. This is quite the opposite of his father, who was effectively natural and extemporaneous, which is part of what made him a charming, forceful politician. J.T. is probably a perfectly nice guy one-on-one, but his public persona is, it seems ineluctably, aloof and conceited. He's always performing and attitudinizing.
On the other hand, Poilevre just registers as a punitive major-league asshole; Canada's Ted Cruz. I'm sure he came out of the womb with his membership in the Young Conservatives of Canada, and a fervent desire to annihilate social programs and punish welfare bums. But if that's what the people want, have at it.

[MonctonRad]

Good post. I can't disagree with any of this.

Effete and performative describes JT to a "T".

Asshole is a fair descriptor for PP as well.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

Look, unpopular opinion, but: Justin isn't really that extreme. He is just a contemporary centre-left leader with two qualities. One, a lot of his stuff seems outsourced, or "best practices from experts", and two he is personally sort of brittle and imperious. He is not different from Rutte or Ardern or a lot of them, and he isn't far from Sunak.

If we're talking about the policies and where they are along the spectrum, they're not extreme outliers except possibly immigration where Canada really is out there. Other Anglosphere countries also have housing affordability problems, and Canada is actually somewhat flexible in that area even though there's been so much immigration lately that supply can't keep up.

But I'd say that there is a lot of tension built up in this system where a lot of people support policies that are ruinous for another part of society. And I'm not sure how it's meaningfully "left"; maybe it is in the sense that it's popular with a group who self-identify as left. The Liberal platform is very generous for wealthy people (those who live more off of wealth than income, the most privileged in society) and hard on the working poor.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Effete is probably the best single descriptor for Trudeau's mien. He is extraordinarily affected and premeditated in the way he speaks and carries himself, no doubt from his years reading poetry and playscripts to students. This is quite the opposite of his father, who was effectively natural and extemporaneous, which is part of what made him a charming, forceful politician. J.T. is probably a perfectly nice guy one-on-one, but his public persona is, it seems ineluctably, aloof and conceited. He's always performing and attitudinizing.
On the other hand, Poilevre just registers as a punitive major-league asshole; Canada's Ted Cruz. I'm sure he came out of the womb with his membership in the Young Conservatives of Canada, and a fervent desire to annihilate social programs and punish welfare bums. But if that's what the people want, have at it.

Again, for how many years now, I tell y'all that Justin is more his mother's son than his father's. Why is it so hard to understand?

[harls]

Justin usually uses the word 'Canadians' or derivative multiple times during any sound bite.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by harls

Justin usually uses the word 'Canadians' or derivative multiple times during any sound bite.

He also uses the word “continue” in almost every sound bite

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Gresto

Effete is probably the best single descriptor for Trudeau's mien. He is extraordinarily affected and premeditated in the way he speaks and carries himself, no doubt from his years reading poetry and playscripts to students. This is quite the opposite of his father, who was effectively natural and extemporaneous, which is part of what made him a charming, forceful politician. J.T. is probably a perfectly nice guy one-on-one, but his public persona is, it seems ineluctably, aloof and conceited. He's always performing and attitudinizing.
On the other hand, Poilevre just registers as a punitive major-league asshole; Canada's Ted Cruz. I'm sure he came out of the womb with his membership in the Young Conservatives of Canada, and a fervent desire to annihilate social programs and punish welfare bums. But if that's what the people want, have at it.

Bang on. Never seen it described so well.

[Djeffery]

"Carney is the only leader able to hold PP to a minority". Bullshit, Jesus Christ himself can crawl off that cross and lead the Liberals and PP is getting a majority. Unless Pierre gets caught sending out dick picks, he's cruising to a majority with the same momentum of a rudderless container ship bearing down on a Baltimore bridge (and even then, I don't count him out).

What serious leadership contender wants to run the Liberals through this next election? Like someone said above, being PM for a year isn't nothing. OK, so let's find some senior Liberal who can end their career as a caretaker Prime Minister who will take one for the team and then ride off into the sunset having checked off one last thing on their professional bucket list. I've said before and still say, it should just be Trudeau that stays on and takes the beating, he made the mess, he can wear the electoral defeat.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by travis3000

Bang on. Never seen it described so well.

Andrew Coyne also nails it in the G&M:

Dumping Trudeau won’t save the Liberals
ANDREW COYNE
PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGO
UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO
FOR SUBSCRIBERS

....No doubt that is part of it. It was evident 11 years ago, when the Liberals, in the devastating aftermath of the 2011 election, seized on the son of a former prime minister as their saviour, that they were leaving themselves exposed. Rather than address any of the fundamental weaknesses in the party’s appeal that had seen its average share of the popular vote fall from over 40 per cent in the last half of the 20th century to barely 30 per cent since then, they bet the farm on the dynastic principle and “sunny ways.”

It worked for a time. But popular infatuation, so easily sparked, is as easily dissipated. All the little things – the smiles, the simpering poses, the ostentatious progressivism – that people found so charming in the first couple of years were bound to grate after a while.

But good gracious: the record of the Liberals in office must surely also have something to do with it. The notion that the Liberals’ woes can all be remedied just by jettisoning Mr. Trudeau as leader is the same quick-fix mentality that elected him....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...-the-liberals/

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Andrew Coyne also nails it in the G&M:

Dumping Trudeau won’t save the Liberals
ANDREW COYNE
PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGO
UPDATED 1 HOUR AGO
FOR SUBSCRIBERS

....No doubt that is part of it. It was evident 11 years ago, when the Liberals, in the devastating aftermath of the 2011 election, seized on the son of a former prime minister as their saviour, that they were leaving themselves exposed. Rather than address any of the fundamental weaknesses in the party’s appeal that had seen its average share of the popular vote fall from over 40 per cent in the last half of the 20th century to barely 30 per cent since then, they bet the farm on the dynastic principle and “sunny ways.”

It worked for a time. But popular infatuation, so easily sparked, is as easily dissipated. All the little things – the smiles, the simpering poses, the ostentatious progressivism – that people found so charming in the first couple of years were bound to grate after a while.

But good gracious: the record of the Liberals in office must surely also have something to do with it. The notion that the Liberals’ woes can all be remedied just by jettisoning Mr. Trudeau as leader is the same quick-fix mentality that elected him....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...-the-liberals/

Trudeau leading the third party to 10 years of government doesn't seem like a quick fix.

The idea Conservatives are guaranteed a majority seems questionable. There is a lot of structural disadvanatges they have. There are a lot of soft Conservatives in that 42% and NDP/Liberals still have a combined 40% so any consolidation even regionally could hold them to a minority.

[Hackslack]

338Canada.com Odds of outcome is showing 99% CPC majority, with a seat projection of between 179 - 230.