The Next Nashville? Billions In New Investment Could Put Baltimore Back On The Map

[Notonfoodstamps]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Baltimore was still losing a lot of people in the previous decade but the turnaround will probably happen abruptly, similar to Washington's turnaround. Washington bottomed out at just about the population Baltimore was at in 2020.

Yeah there is a lot of housing/development proposed or in the immediate pipeline right now where the city is very much finding its sense of direction.

When it shifts, I definitely see it pulling a DC and pulling a complete 180

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

When it shifts, I definitely see it pulling a DC and pulling a complete 180

That sounds highly implausible. DC is one of the most hyper-gentrified geographies on earth. Baltimore has no such pressures.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Whoa.

Baltimore really is "the rustbelt of bos-wash".

I hadn't fully appreciated how out of step it is with all of its peers.

Baltimore barely gets immigrants. All those other cities have some degree of immigration (or weird stuff going on, like Lakewood, which is the third largest Orthodox concentration on earth, after Israel and Brooklyn).

[Notonfoodstamps]

Originally Posted by Crawford

That sounds highly implausible. DC is one of the most hyper-gentrified geographies on earth. Baltimore has no such pressures.

I live between both. DC is absolutely not one of "the most hyper-gentrified geographies on earth". Don't let social media/forum echo chambers paint a false narrative of the city. DC absolutely has problems considering it has more homicides than Baltimore right now and was a couple of pen strokes away from losing its NHL & NBA team.

Baltimore has always had the underlying economic pressure for growth. It just lacked proper management and leadership for decades up until literally the last ~5 years, and because of that, the some of its parts are finally starting to work in harmony.

It's slashed its homicide rate in half in two years, has billions being invested in god knows how many major infrastructure/developement projects, is at an all time in housing production with no construction let up in sight (it's at positive net occupied housing). The city is going to vote to lower property taxes over the next 7 years to make it more competitive and the final cherry on top which will pay dividends when MD has a 100k housing unit shortage and the city finally has state level backing/support with Governor Moore.

Everyone in the greater DC-Baltimore region can and is feeling the cities shift, and it's happening extremely quick considering how large it's "needle" has to move to be noticed.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

I live between both. DC is absolutely not one of "the most hyper-gentrified geographies on earth".

Could you name a city with more gentrification? Not even SF is as gentrified. SF has rent control, a huge skid row neighborhood, and neighborhoods permanently embalmed in amber (i.e. Chinatown).

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

Don't let social media/forum echo chambers paint a false narrative of the city. DC absolutely has problems considering it has more homicides than Baltimore right now.

That's great, and completely irrelevant. Baltimore has no obvious similarities to DC, and homicide count has no relevance to gentrification pressures. I've lived in DC, visit all the time for work, and cannot think of a more completely gentrified geography.

[Notonfoodstamps]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Could you name a city with more gentrification? Not even SF is as gentrified. SF has rent control, a huge skid row neighborhood, and neighborhoods permanently embalmed in amber (i.e. Chinatown).


That's great, and completely irrelevant. Baltimore has no obvious similarities to DC, and homicide count has no relevance to gentrification pressures. I've lived in DC, visit all the time for work, and cannot think of a more completely gentrified geography.

You're trolling right?

Have you actually legit been to NE DC and I'm not talking about getting coffee in NoMA or Bloomingdale, let alone anywhere east of the Anacostia?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

You're trolling right?

Have you actually legit been to NE DC and I'm not talking about getting coffee in NoMA or Bloomingdale, let alone anywhere east of the Anacostia?

Yes, I've been everywhere in DC. I know Benning Rd. and Good Hope Rd. as well as WI. Ave. and CT. Ave. And I think you're either a crazy homer or completely uninformed if you're seriously comparing Baltimore to DC and believe they'll follow similar trajectories.

DC is the command center for the greatest empire in the history of humanity. Baltimore is a legacy port/manufacturing center with an excellent medical school. Comparing apples and unicycles.

[Notonfoodstamps]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yes, I've been everywhere in DC. I know Benning Rd. and Good Hope Rd. as well as WI. Ave. and CT. Ave. And I think you're either a crazy homer or completely uninformed if you're seriously comparing Baltimore to DC and believe they'll follow similar trajectories.

DC is the command center for the greatest empire in the history of humanity. Baltimore is a legacy port/manufacturing center with an excellent medical school. Comparing apples and unicycles.

I grew up in DC... You're confusing "trajectory" with stature.

Baltimore will never be DC nor does it need to replicate it to achieve its own population growth and stability. Which was the entire point I'm making and the point that clearly went over your head.

[chimpskibot]

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

I grew up in DC... You're confusing "trajectory" with stature.

Baltimore will never be DC nor does it need to replicate it to achieve its own population growth and stability. Which was the entire point I'm making and the point that clearly went over your head.

I have to agree with the other poster, you did say it would have explosive growth like DC and that probably isn’t true. I think an analogous city to Baltimore is STL. Isn’t Baltimore still doing massive blight remediation projects and vacant housing demolition? The area around John Hopkins has had whole blocks razed in the last 5 years. Even in my current city of Philly this type of demo is pretty unheard of today even if we have had slow and anemic population growth.

https://baltimorebrew.com/2022/02/09...ed-this-month/

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Baltimore barely gets immigrants.

Just like all of the rustbelt regulars.

It's like a city in the wrong region.

[Notonfoodstamps]

Originally Posted by chimpskibot

I have to agree with the other poster, you did say it would have explosive growth like DC and that probably isn’t true. I think an analogous city to Baltimore is STL.

DC only gained ~29k residents from 2000-2010. The districts explosive growth has only been the last 10-15 years when the mayor made it her personal mission to combat CoL by building as much housing as physically possible. Baltimore would "only" have to reach a population of ~700k by the 2050 census to match DC's post '00 boom. Not an easy feet by any means, but by no means unattainable.

Population loss/growth isn't V shaped, but a U shaped bell curve, and that goes for any city. Baltimore is very much near or at the bottom of it's "U"

Originally Posted by chimpskibot

Isn’t Baltimore still doing massive blight remediation projects and vacant housing demolition? The area around John Hopkins has had whole blocks razed in the last 5 years. Even in my current city of Philly this type of demo is pretty unheard of today even if we have had slow and anemic population growth.

https://baltimorebrew.com/2022/02/09...ed-this-month/

The days of mass demo'ing projects are more of less over. Mass remediation projects are in full swing though.

Between the city and private developers, the city reduces its vacant's by something like 400-600 units per year. The state just imposed a bill where vacant properties can be taxed at a substantially higher rate to force speculative "investors" to either sell the property back to the city or rehab.

That business with Hopkins was Hopkins purposely sitting on the homes to prevent buyers, as they want to build a new facilities on the underlying land. They went to court and were sued over it.

[Prahaboheme]

There's no reason to believe that Baltimore cannot continue on its upward trajectory given how good the bones of the city are along with its enviable location in the "Acela" corridor, its rich history, institutions, and so on.

Seems like people are sleeping on the city's progress recently. What Baltimore has that most cities do not are those fully intact wonderful Midatlantic rows. Despite the population decline over the years, it still feels and is so much larger than its "peers" due to the intact urban framework. It was never hollowed out like Detroit, StL, Hartford.

If there is any city with a comparison I'd suggest it is New Orleans.

[chimpskibot]

Originally Posted by Notonfoodstamps

DC only gained ~29k residents from 2000-2010. The districts explosive growth has only been the last 10-15 years when the mayor made it her personal mission to combat CoL by building as much housing as physically possible. Baltimore would "only" have to reach a population of ~700k by the 2050 census to match DC's post '00 boom. Not an easy feet by any means, but by no means unattainable.

Population loss/growth isn't V shaped, but a U shaped bell curve, and that goes for any city. Baltimore is very much near or at the bottom of it's "U"



The days of mass demo'ing projects are more of less over. Mass remediation projects are in full swing though.

Between the city and private developers, the city reduces its vacant's by something like 400-600 units per year. The state just imposed a bill where vacant properties can be taxed at a substantially higher rate to force speculative "investors" to either sell the property back to the city or rehab.

That business with Hopkins was Hopkins purposely sitting on the homes to prevent buyers, as they want to build a new facilities on the underlying land. They went to court and were sued over it.

Not going to lie, I don’t see what you see and that’s ok. Baltimore can still continue to lose population and there is no indication it has hit its nadir. In fact out migration ramped up between 2010-2020 relative to 2000-2010. I would also ask what is the draw of Baltimore vs other cities within the NEC?

Also regarding John’s Hopkins why would they demolish those beautiful homes if there is so much vacant land around the hospital. That should be a crime in of itself.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Prahaboheme

There's no reason to believe that Baltimore cannot continue on its upward trajectory given how good the bones of the city are along with its enviable location in the "Acela" corridor, its rich history, institutions, and so on.

Seems like people are sleeping on the city's progress recently. What Baltimore has that most cities do not are those fully intact wonderful Midatlantic rows. Despite the population decline over the years, it still feels and is so much larger than its "peers" due to the intact urban framework. It was never hollowed out like Detroit, StL, Hartford.

If there is any city with a comparison I'd suggest it is New Orleans.

Yes, I was thinking NOLA as a comparison as well, though it's in a much better location.

[Cirrus]

1. Nashville is a weird comparison, born out of some publisher's weird bias, and should not be the comparison for what a booming Baltimore would look like.

2. Yes Baltimore is at least 20 years behind its Northeast Corridor peer cities. Yes I think it will follow a similar trajectory, if decades behind, and with local nuances (lacking a proper metro is a big handicap).

3. It is simultaneously true that DC is one of the most gentrified cities and that it still has areas that are not gentrified.

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by DCReid

"Huge Baltimore real estate and infrastructure projects are coinciding to transform some of the most recognizable parts of the city and pump billions of dollars into the local economy...Baltimore County Chamber of Commerce CEO Brent Howard also said he thinks the city can be the next hot market.

“Just seeing the continued growth of our area, we think Baltimore, as he said, can be the next Nashville or the next Austin,” he said. “It has everything you need in terms of citizenship, in terms of assets, in terms of climate, we’re on the water. Even proximity to other cities: We’re right here next to D.C., we’re a skip from New York.”"

https://www.bisnow.com/baltimore/new...essures-124825


Question is, why Baltimore lags compared to other Northeast 'legacy' cities, but I supposed you can say the same about Newark, NJ and Hartford, CTn

I think I'd rather play "baby Boston" or some similar model of relative success with low growth. A comparison with Nashville doesn't really make sense to me for a city in the Bos-Wash corridor.

[pj3000]

It's always interesting to hear talk of cities in the "Bos-Wash corridor" and pick up on notions that these cities are somehow the same... or even similar... and that there is legitimate surprise when seemingly outlying characteristics of a certain city is brought up.

Like... do people really think Boston and Philadelphia are similar? And Philadelphia and Baltimore are dissimilar because one has population growth while the other has population loss?

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by pj3000

It's always interesting to hear talk of cities in the "Bos-Wash corridor" and pick up on notions that these cities are somehow the same... or even similar... and that there is legitimate surprise when seemingly outlying characteristics of a certain city is brought up.

Like... do people really think Boston and Philadelphia are similar? And Philadelphia and Baltimore are dissimilar because one has population growth while the other has population loss?

Of course each major urban hub of the NEC is pretty distinctive in a number of ways. But there are certainly enough demographic (all of the BosWash metros are relatively wealthy, diverse and knowledge-based) and historic built environment (generally very dense/walkable built form, with very high percentages of attached housing) similarities, particularly in comparison to other regions of the US, to consider them as an affiliated grouping. Their simple proximity also leads to an increasing amount of cultural and migratory overlap.

So yes, Boston and Philadelphia are clearly not carbon copies of one another, but they're FAR more similar to each other than either one is to, say, Minneapolis.

Baltimore stands out most due to being much more "mid-sized" in stature and being further behind the gentrification curve, but I believe it definitely has all of the fundamentals to follow in the footsteps of the rest of the BosWash hubs. Baltimore proper just needs a bit more of a jumpstart to its economy.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by pj3000

It's always interesting to hear talk of cities in the "Bos-Wash corridor" and pick up on notions that these cities are somehow the same... or even similar... and that there is legitimate surprise when seemingly outlying characteristics of a certain city is brought up.

Like... do people really think Boston and Philadelphia are similar? And Philadelphia and Baltimore are dissimilar because one has population growth while the other has population loss?

I think, historically, you're right, but in recent decades there has been much more of a convergence, and really that whole area from NoVa to NH has some broad similarities.

Are Boston and Philly really that distinct? Both are heavily eds/meds legacy cities with great bones, slow growth, railroad suburbia, etc. Their appeal is pretty similar.

[Cirrus]

Originally Posted by pj3000

do people really think Boston and Philadelphia are similar?

I have a book I think you should read.