Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[theman23]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

This is something I've been saying for years, so this certainly brings me some vindication (and at least a little bit of schadenfreude). But this is the result of investor-driving housing development where homes aren't actually designed with the end user in mind - we've done a really poor job at building livable, high-quality housing that people actually want to live in. It's particularly problematic with the phenomenon of "inboard bedrooms" in Ontario - ie. bedrooms without an exterior-facing window. So you get 1-bedroom, or even 2-bedroom condos where the bedrooms have no windows. At least in BC, by code a bedroom requires an external window. This is where some level of regulation is needed to ensure that decent housing is being built.

There's of course a place for smaller, studio apartments within the wider housing stock; but half a million dollars for a hallway with a kitchen ain't it. And studios can still be well designed with efficient layouts - which most of these are not. Either way, in the context of a housing shortage it makes the problem even worse than it seems at first glance: it means that a significant share of the ~250,000 housing units we do build each year (if not the majority in places like Toronto) aren't actually meeting people's needs. It also creates a bit of a caveat in the supposed price drops we've heard about it in the market, as the biggest drops are in the worst units. Anecdotally, of the houses, townhomes, and larger/better-designed condo units I've looked at, prices still seem to ticking slowly upwards.

On the bright side, there's probably about to be a whole bunch of relatively affordable homes on the market in the not-too-distant future. Zero sympathy for the investors who lose their shirt in the process. I do feel bad for the buyers who were duped into thinking these were a smart investment, but from the sounds of it they're probably in the minority at least.

That realtor.ca link you posted has a Murphy bed in the kitchen as it’s only sleep space and literally no living space. That would be slumming it for a short term stay, but maybe acceptable for a couple of hot bedding international students. Even then, I doubt it. You’re probably right that the majority of housing starts get gobbled up by crap like this, which makes the fact that we’re building 3 to 4 slower than we should even more depressing.

[MolsonExport]

floor-to-ceiling windows

That ad is lying. There is but one window, in the narrow tunnel that does triple duty as a kitchen, bedroom, and living room.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

This is something I've been saying for years, so this certainly brings me some vindication (and at least a little bit of schadenfreude). But this is the result of investor-driving housing development where homes aren't actually designed with the end user in mind - we've done a really poor job at building livable, high-quality housing that people actually want to live in. It's particularly problematic with the phenomenon of "inboard bedrooms" in Ontario - ie. bedrooms without an exterior-facing window. So you get 1-bedroom, or even 2-bedroom condos where the bedrooms have no windows. At least in BC, by code a bedroom requires an external window. This is where some level of regulation is needed to ensure that decent housing is being built.

There's of course a place for smaller, studio apartments within the wider housing stock; but half a million dollars for a hallway with a kitchen ain't it. And studios can still be well designed with efficient layouts - which most of these are not. Either way, in the context of a housing shortage it makes the problem even worse than it seems at first glance: it means that a significant share of the ~250,000 housing units we do build each year (if not the majority in places like Toronto) aren't actually meeting people's needs. It also creates a bit of a caveat in the supposed price drops we've heard about it in the market, as the biggest drops are in the worst units. Anecdotally, of the houses, townhomes, and larger/better-designed condo units I've looked at, prices still seem to ticking slowly upwards.

On the bright side, there's probably about to be a whole bunch of relatively affordable homes on the market in the not-too-distant future. Zero sympathy for the investors who lose their shirt in the process. I do feel bad for the buyers who were duped into thinking these were a smart investment, but from the sounds of it they're probably in the minority at least.

There's no difference in the BC Building Code, which also allows windowless bedrooms. Here's a statement by Burnaby's general manager of planning and development, Ed Kozak. "The bedrooms have the opportunity for receiving borrowed light from the window that is also within the unit, he said, noting windows do not make a bedroom and are not a requirement in the building code."

The floor plates of older towers tended to be smaller, with a greater proportion of exterior wall which meant that bedrooms could, and would, have a window. Larger floor plate towers like The Amazing Brentwood in Burnaby have 10 or 12 units per floor, so there have to be some 'shotgun' apartments with windowless bedrooms. Here's an honest ad for one where you can 'immerse yourself in the epitome of luxurious minimalism. What sets this condo apart is its versatility with an office space thoughtfully converted from one of the windowless bedrooms.' The City of Vancouver has also allowed windowless bedrooms in 'affordable' rental projects.

Windowless bedrooms also a phenomenon that can be seen across the US too.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

There's no difference in the BC Building Code, which also allows windowless bedrooms. Here's a statement by Burnaby's general manager of planning and development, Ed Kozak. "The bedrooms have the opportunity for receiving borrowed light from the window that is also within the unit, he said, noting windows do not make a bedroom and are not a requirement in the building code."

The floor plates of older towers tended to be smaller, with a greater proportion of exterior wall which meant that bedrooms could, and would, have a window. Larger floor plate towers like The Amazing Brentwood in Burnaby have 10 or 12 units per floor, so there have to be some 'shotgun' apartments with windowless bedrooms. Here's an honest ad for one where you can 'immerse yourself in the epitome of luxurious minimalism. What sets this condo apart is its versatility with an office space thoughtfully converted from one of the windowless bedrooms.' The City of Vancouver has also allowed windowless bedrooms in 'affordable' rental projects.

Windowless bedrooms also a phenomenon that can be seen across the US too.

You have to love planning-speak like "borrowed light". These are the tenaments of tomorrow.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

On the bright side, there's probably about to be a whole bunch of relatively affordable homes on the market in the not-too-distant future. Zero sympathy for the investors who lose their shirt in the process. I do feel bad for the buyers who were duped into thinking these were a smart investment, but from the sounds of it they're probably in the minority at least.

Curious why you’d say this? Interest rates are dropping, and we still import way more FNSs per year than what normally fits inside the new housing we manage to build per year, which leads me to forecast that the “housing crisis” is going to get worse, and that current real estate prices are low compared to what they’ll be in the future.

I don’t see PM PP being able to do much about stopping JT’s pet Scheme; the consequences would be too dire. Our economy is now addicted to that influx of Indentured Servants — and they happen to all prefer a roof over their heads.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

You have to love planning-speak like "borrowed light". These are the tenaments of tomorrow.

It's not planning-speak, it's been around as a description for centuries.

Borrowed light is a term that refers to the light that enters a room or a building through a window or an opening in a wall. This light is called “borrowed” because it is not produced by the room or building itself, but rather by an external source. The term is also used to describe the light that is reflected or diffused from one surface to another, such as a mirror or a shiny object.

According to the Oxford English Dictionary, borrowed light is “light admitted to a building from an external source, as through a window or skylight.” Merriam-Webster defines it as “light that enters a room through a window or other opening in a wall.” The Cambridge Dictionary defines it as “the light that comes into a room from outside through a window.”

[Words-wiki]

[whatnext]

Some international coverage, from the Guardian, on more symptoms of the Liberals failure on the housing front.

Toronto residents flood city lotteries amid ‘impossibly unaffordable’ housing
Demand far outstripped supply for six lotteries amid rising rents in city with scarcity of affordable options
Campbell MacDiarmid in Ottawa
Wed 26 Jun 2024 17.35 BST

Toronto inhabitants fed up with rising rents are flooding city-run lotteries for affordable housing in new developments, but the chance of being selected for a subsidized unit is often less than 1%.

One new development in the city’s West End recently offered a random public draw to allocate 135 units with rents pegged to income ceilings that would cost hundreds of dollars less than market rates. Nearly 12,500 people entered the draw for the homes aimed at middle-income earners in the Galleria on the Park development.

A new analysis by the Toronto Star has shown that demand far outstripped supply for six lotteries to allocate lower-cost rentals in six new developments since the start of 2023, part of a city scheme offering developers incentives in return for including moderately affordable units in their plans. One development’s lottery gave applicants a 4% chance of winning, while the odds of success in another ballot were just 0.4%....

... Only the cost of living and concerns with the healthcare system outstripped concerns over high housing prices among respondents leaning against supporting the Liberal government, according to the Angus Reid poll.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...ousing-lottery

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Changing City

There's no difference in the BC Building Code, which also allows windowless bedrooms.

Interesting, didn't realize that was the case. In Ontario, the code was updated in the early 2000s to specifically allow bedrooms without direct exterior windows (previously not permitted), which I had assumed was not the case in BC - particularly as those "inboard bedrooms" seem to be incredibly rare here, even on newer developments. In contrast, I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of post-2000 condo units in Toronto had them.

Originally Posted by lio45

Curious why you’d say this? Interest rates are dropping, and we still import way more FNSs per year than what normally fits inside the new housing we manage to build per year, which leads me to forecast that the “housing crisis” is going to get worse, and that current real estate prices are low compared to what they’ll be in the future.

I don’t see PM PP being able to do much about stopping JT’s pet Scheme; the consequences would be too dire. Our economy is now addicted to that influx of Indentured Servants — and they happen to all prefer a roof over their heads.

Well, as noted in the CBC piece, they aren't selling at the current asking prices. The cap rates don't work out for rentals, they can't (legally) be used for Airbnb, and no one wants to spend half a million dollars to actually live in a glorified closet. They exist for the purpose of investment, but the math isn't pencilling out anymore.

Now, demand for a simple roof over one's head will temper them from falling too much; and it's possible that if the current growth rates continue that even the micro studios will eventually be able to fetch $3000+ per month in rent - but I'd place my bets on prices falling quite a bit further before that happens.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

That ad is lying. There is but one window, in the narrow tunnel that does triple duty as a kitchen, bedroom, and living room.

Don't forget "luxury living".


My annoying realisation of the day is that this isn't too far away from my parent's place - a detached single-family house on decent sized lot - which they bought for about $100,000 in the 80s (the equivalent of around $200,000 today). They could've bought two houses for the equivalent price of this single 9 ft wide micro apartment!

[kwoldtimer]

Unfortunate news in today's market.

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/company...tion-1.6942348

[theman23]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Unfortunate news in today's market.

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/company...tion-1.6942348

Their press release really doesn’t hold back, throwing shade on everything from the burdensome regulatory process to inflationary government overspending.

https://www.z-modular.com/news/z-mod...hener-ontario/

[GeneralLeeTPHLS]

That's really unfortunate, and perfectly encapsulates the problems facing our housing market across the nation.